Friday, April 03, 2009

Launch Date ? - North Korea

The New York Times: Reports that Communist North Korea could launch its long range missile on Saturday. Thus the options for the Obama Administration are not good, the first option is do nothing, military or diplomatically, this would be seen as appeasement by North Korea, they would pull something else down the line, thus the second option, the USA, Japan and South Korea take North Korea to the UN. The launch of the missile is against a UN resolution, also China could veto any resolution. Lets recall China has been playing games with the US Navy of late. Also the US cant annoy China to much, its China that is keeping the US Economy going by buying its debt. Thus Obama has very limited options when it comes to placing pressure on China. The third option is for some kind of military action, will the US or Japan shoot down the missile, this issue could arise if the missile is seen as a threat to Japan or the USA. If it was shot down we are in new ball game, Obama might have to deal with another War. Thus we come to option four, watch the launch and sees what happens, if it is a success you have another problem, North Korea will become a member of the nuclear club. They wont give up their nuclear weapons, its to much of a value for them in the long term. Thus we have a successful launch, expect the plans to be sold to Iran. If Iran can develop in nuclear ambitions Israel will have to take action, thus Obama might have another War in Iraq, this time Iran invades Iraq as a counter to an Israeli attack on its nuclear plants. Also they would help the Taliban/Terrorists in Afghanistan, thus more grief for the American War effort. Thus we wait, the next few hours and days could be quite tense for the folks in the region.

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