Friday, September 11, 2009

Obama=LBJ / Afghanistan = Vietnam Redux

The Hill: Reports that President Obama could face push back should he request more funding for Afghanistan. Lets recall that although health care reform is important, the USA has forces in Afghanistan and Iraq. It has been stated by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs that Afghanistan is not going well, also since the USA removed its troops from the cities of Iraq we have an increase in bombings. In many respects the situation faced by President Obama is worse that faced by LBJ in the late 60s. The latest US military review has stated that the USA needs a new strategy in Afghanistan, going from killing the Taliban/Terrorists to the protection of the people. In many respects this is not new, the Kennedy/Johnson policy of Strategic Hamlets in South Vietnam was meant to protect the people, it didn't work, it was a revision of a British counter terrorism policy of taking the people away from the terrorists, thus moving the people, all it did was make the people furious. Thus it can be postulated the new US policy will not make that mistake, thus the US will have to place troops in the small villages around Afghanistan. Thus that will mean a massive troops increase, that will cost, anything less and you might as well take the troops home, you will lose troops for nothing if you don't back them with more troops. Also in Iraq we have an election in the new year, also there will be around thirty to fifty thousand troops in theatre till 2011. The USA can not afford to leave Iraq in the hands of a nuclear armed Iran, simple reason it has oil. Thus Obama at the end of the day will have to challenge his Liberal base, any failure and he will be Jimmy Carter and he will lose re-election in 2012.

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