As I have been following the Roxana Saberi case in Iran, the Cold War case of Nicholas Daniloff (1) came to mind, Mr Daniloff was also a reporter who was arrested for being a an American Spy in the USSR. The Daniloff case was in 1986, it was before the Reykjavik Summit, this Summit was the start of the end of the Cold War. Reagan and Gorbachev came close to agreeing the elimination of all nuclear weapons. The importance of the arrest comes in the fact that it came before the Summit, it could have frozen the warm relationship between Reagan and Gorbachev. In the end both sides came to an agreement that allowed the reporter to go home and also allowed those opposed to the USSR to leave. The USSR got back an important agent. Neither side wanted to freeze the developing relationship, thus we come to the present, Obama needs to get Ms Saberi out of Iran and quick, the longer it goes on the harder it will be for Obama to offer his hand to Iran. The problem is who is running the show out there, was the arrest of Ms Saberi an attempt by the hardliners to block any moves by the Obama Administration. The more freedom that the people of Iran have the less power held by the religious elite. On the other hand it could be a master plan by the Government of Iran. Its a matter of playing mind games, a reporter is arrested, the religious conservatives take the blame, while the President of Iran is seen as moderate with his request that the reporter gets her day in court. The background of course is the elections in Iran this year for President, the religious elite might fear that their candidate the present President might lose, thus they give him good PR with Conservative moderates. Thus the President gets re-elected, he starts endless talks with the USA and then Iran declares its got the bomb.
1. Informal Exchange With Reporters Prior to a Meeting With Nicholas Danilofff,12/9/86.The Public Papers of President Ronald W. Reagan. Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.
No comments:
Post a Comment