Lets have a quick look at the polls for the early states voting, Iowa by an RCP Average has Obama ahead by 3.5 %, looking at the polls over all in Iowa VIEWS is going to name Obama the winner in Iowa. Next the firewall for Hillary Clinton, New Hampshire, this one is harder to call, RCP on Average has Clinton leading by 3 %, if Obama can win Iowa by a good margin, then he can win N.H. In this state Obama is lucky Independents can vote in either the Democratic or Republican Primary, depends if the good people don't vote as they did in 2000 for McCain then they will vote for Obama on Election Day. This is a close call but VIEWS has Obama winning New Hampshire. Then on to Michigan, well the Clinton Campaign should be happy, the RCP Average has Clinton ahead by 23 %, but should Obama win the first two states, can Clinton keep the lead here, yes it would take a miracle for her to lose Michigan, so Michigan for Clinton. The same goes for Nevada, another Clinton win in less Obama can run the field. Then on to South Carolina this could finish Hillary Clinton, RCP Average is only 2.2 % ahead for Clinton and if Obama can move the African - American vote he should be able to win this state. Then Florida, this should be a win for Hillary in less Obama runs the field again.
Here is VIEWS prediction, early and could be very wrong, but just a gut instinct, Obama will be the nominee for the Democrats.
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