Congressional Mid Term Elections 2006

An interesting article on why Bush might be confident for the Mid Terms Elections, Click here for The Allen Report.

If one thing is more fun for political geeks than future elections is looking at past elections and why candidates lost, interesting article on the latest John Kerry foul up, explains why he lost in 2004, Click here for CNN Article. The article states the following, ‘ Republicans unleashed a firestorm of criticism Tuesday against Sen. John Kerry after the Vietnam veteran told college students they'd "get stuck in Iraq" if they didn't work hard in school. ’ The Article states that Kerry had wanted to say something else, another flip flop.

Interesting Article in the Congressional Quarterly on the Mid Term Elections, the article states the following, ‘ The growing probability that the Democrats will win control of the House on Nov. 7, and still have a chance at the taller order of capturing the Senate as well, has hardly caught the political class by surprise. ’ Click here for full Article.


An article in the Washington Times on the expectations game for the Mid Term Elections, Click here for Full Article.

If you only read one Article, VIEWS would recommend this article in the Washington Post, while VIEWS might not agree on their numbers, they are worth a look and gives the political geek something to ponder, Click here for Article.

An interesting article in the Wall Street Journal on the recent development of early voting, the article states the following, ‘ Republicans say they have some good news in early-voting statistics that suggest their voter-turnout machine is providing an edge in some tight races. ’ Click here for full Article.



Well the season for polls has arrived; we have polls for the same House Seat, which show different, and opposite results that cover the same days. Thus over the next few days VIEWS before the election is going to smell the Coffee and let his political gut lead him to make his final predictions for the Mid Terms. Views will make his prediction on the Monday before the election, and should he be wrong by a large margin he will write in his next blog that President Bill Clinton was a great President. As Views has no wish for this great calamity he will try to give an honest and objective opinion based on his reading of the political environment and the dreaded political Polls.

Mid Term Elections, End of October 2006

Here us the latest poll from Missouri, a state that could decide who controls the US Senate:

Missouri: Talent ( R ) 47% - 47% McCaskill ( D )

The fight over stem cell research seems to have helped the Democratic candidate get to even, can it get her over the top in November is another question.

Some interesting articles on the US Mid Term Elections for your Sunday viewing:

Is Bush Alone, Time Article, In essence the article states that the President is a problem to his Republican Candidates and the future depends on how much seats the Democrats win. A narrow majority a limited action, a large majority more problems for the President. The Article states that the Administration will use all the administrative powers of the Presidency to gain its agenda.

The Political Plan of Karl Rove, LA Times Article , the article main point being that the Republicans might be down but they are not out just yet.

The Money game in Politics, Washington Post Article , the article states the following on the political TV adds that will be produced by both Parties, ‘ Most of the ads will be dark and accusatory ’ As the article points out, the right political plan followed could decide who controls the House for the next two years.

A Hung Parliament, Sorry Hung House of Representatives

An interesting article by Michael Barone today, he writes the following, ‘ My predictions would produce an almost evenly divided House: 219 Democrats, a net gain of 16, and 216 Republicans. ’ As this would very slim majority, and VIEWS recalls the Majority of around 21 John Major had in 1992, that went fast one way or another. Thus a massive shift would become a day-to-day battle to gain a majority for new ideas to get passed. As the Speaker Nancy Pelosi, would have to balance the demands of the far left on the Democratic side of the Party with the voting power of those on the conservative side of the Party, they do still have some. As with the lose of votes over the two years, it could place President George W. Bush in a very interesting position. Speaker Pelosi might need President Bush more than George W. Bush needs a helpful Speaker. The Democrats if this prediction came true would not have the majority to overrule a Presidential Veto, thus if they wanted to get anything done and have a chance of keeping a majority they would have to work with the White House, that’s why Democracy is interesting if not perfect.

Some new Senate Polls, have come out, Tennessee, Bob Corker (R) is at 49% compared to 44% for Harold Ford ( D ) RCP average is Corker up by 3%. In Missouri, two Polls have Jim Talent ( R ) up by 3% , they both place Jim Talent at 48% and his Democratic Opponent, Claire McCaskill at 45% , the RCP average is Talent up by 1% . In Virginia we have two different Polls, one has George Allan ( R ) up by 4% over his Democratic Opponent James Webb, but another Poll has Webb ahead of Allen by 3%. The RCP average has Allen ahead by 1.8%. RCP has the Democrats taking four seats in the Senate; they are two short for control of the Senate.

Does Money matter more that Polls

An interesting article on the Mid Term Elections that argues that the Republicans will hold on to Congress based on how much money they have as a back up before election day, Click Article. VIEWS is in two minds about this issue.

A Counter view to this argument on Power Line, Click Article.

A look at the recent AP reported Polls on the Mid Terms.

The New York Times on the Outlook held by Democrats going in to Mid Term Elections.

The Washington Post on the latest political attack used by Karl Rove on the Democrats.

Dr Who Awards

Folks it’s that time of year again, time to vote for the National Television Awards on ITV. In the final round we have Billie Piper and David Tennant for Dr Who and Dr Who for Best Drama, Click NTA to VOTE

American Politics Update for October

Is Pelosi a non show for Speaker, interesting article in the Conservative Washington Times, Click here

All the talk has been about how many seats the Republicans would lose in the House, what about the Democrats, an interesting race in Indiana / 7. The Republican leads by three points, 45 -42

The VIEWS has been checking out the House races, based on his last look at the all FIFTY RACES on RCP, so far the Democrats seem to be odd on favourites to win 10 off the bat. Then VIEWS has 9 Seats in the 50/50 bracket. If the Democrats take all the Seats and don’t lose any they will have a majority of three or four. It should be noted the Race in Indiana, if the Republicans take just a few Seats that magic number of 15 goes up. But considering the toxic waters at the Moment, Congressional Scandals and Iraq, it would be almost like 1948 and the one and only Harry S. Truman coming back when he was seen as dead in the Water by the political elite.

VIEWS has been looking at the following as possible upsets in the House Race, these have been seen as automatic Dem pick ups considering recent events: Texas 22, Florida 16, it would be interesting if the Republicans put their up and coming operatives in to the Races and got the Vote out in November, more Seats the Republicans can hold the more the Democrats need to gain.

Iraq = Vietnam

Does Iraq equal Vietnam, has VIEWS been so wrong, was the WAR a mistake?

American Mid Term Elections

An interesting article in the Washington Post, President George W. Bush and Karl Rove think the Republicans will hold on to Congress, Click here for Article.

Interesting article in the New York Times between growing Democratic Support and the Professional operation run by the Republicans, Click here for Article.

Views was watching Fox News on Saturday night, and their political analysts have the Democrats taking the House by 18 to 21 Seats, on the Senate side the Republicans would just remain in control. If you think about it, after the Iraq War, Congressional Scandals, the Democrats should be making more headway. On CNN’s Late Edition, one of the political analysts had about 50 Seats that should be looked at over the next three weeks. Views just has a feeling, that the Democrats should not be that over confidant, Events. Events.

North Korea Update

A few hours and my blog of yesterday is wrong, traces of radiation have been found over North Korea and the UN has acted as one for a change. The UN has passed the following resolution: The BBC Reports its main aspects:

1) Demands North Korea eliminate all its nuclear weapons, weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles.

2) Requires all countries to prevent the sale or transfer of materials related to Pyongyang's unconventional weapons programmes, as well as large-sized military items such as tanks, missiles and helicopters.


3) Demands nations freeze funds overseas of people or businesses connected with North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

4) Allows nations to inspect cargo moving in and out of North Korea in pursuit of non-conventional weapons.


5) Is not backed up by the threat of military force.

6) Calls on Pyongyang to return "without precondition" to stalled six-nation talks on its nuclear programme.

The next question is what will happen next? If President Bush sends in the Fleet to check ships and if by chance the North Koreans start to fire, the United States is not going to wait for over a week for China and Russia to make their minds up. It depends who checks the ships coming out of North Korea and how hard they check, the next few weeks should be interesting.

North Korea

The place that gives neo conservatives a nightmare, as of today it looks like North Korea. North Korea has not detonated a nuclear device, which is good; even if they are spinning they have the bomb. This puts the Western Powers in a bind, on the one hand, the intelligence information seems to negate the information coming out of North Korea, but on the other hand we have to deal with it as a real problem as it has been announced thus the move in the UN for sanctions even if they are weak sanctions. This does recall the Cuban Missile Crisis when the Americans on the receiving two letters from the USSR, one that offered a way out of the Crisis and another that wanted concessions from the USA. President Kennedy taking advice ignored the second letter and went with the first letter that would end the crisis. The point of this historical lesson is that the USA from a pure real political point of view should do nothing. YES NOTHING. It should be clear from those that read this blog that VIEWS is no liberal peace nick from the 1960s. The point being if the UN passes sanctions for an act that has not happened; the get out clause being so far as the information we have from different intelligence agencies; then over time one can hear those on the left jumping up and down in support of North Korea. What the USA should do is think outside the box, no UN sanctions, just nothing no sanctions but not deals either official or non-official, no deals like Kennedy did over the redundant Turkish Missiles in 1962.

The United States should request that Japan places its sanctions on hold, just do nothing, show North Korea it will not get anywhere by making demands and even more to the point, trying to spin lies to the international community. Thus North Korea can be told to take a running jump and the international community would back to where it was on the Sunday before the announcement from North Korea. This might only work for a short time, but lets punish North Korea when it actually does something not for spinning the mad views of its leadership. They should go down to the local book shop in South Korea and buy a few books on spinning before making themselves a laughing stock on the WORLD STAGE.

Is Bush Weak?

It seems from the Wire Reports that the Tough Resolution that the United States wanted from the UN is getting watered down. Dick Morris states this could be Bush’s JFK moment, as in Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 but the news reports from, FOX and the New YORK Times give the impression that President Bush is weak and will have to accept a nuclear North Korea. What Price Iraq NOW!!

Views hopes the USA stands tough at the UN, or the UN will became another league of nations. World history took a bad turn after the failure of the league.

Options on North Korea

Here are some of the interesting articles VIEWS has read on the North Korea Showdown!

An Article by Simon Jenkins in The Guardian. Views agrees with the following comment: ‘curb North Korea's ambition in the simplest possible way. Sophisticated air power, useless in counter-insurgency, has a role in the "coercive diplomacy" of non-proliferation. Israel used it effectively against Iraq's nuclear plant in 1981 and the US repeated the exercise with Operation Desert Fox in 1998…’

On the other hand we have President Jimmy Carter, VIEWS must admit, he cant stand Jimmy Carter, the worse President with Hoover included that the United States has ever had in the 20TH Century. But he still was a President and a winner of the Nobel Prize, so here is his opinion that VIEWS does not agree with at all..! ‘ What must be avoided is to leave a beleaguered nuclear nation convinced that it is permanently excluded from the international community.. ’ ( New York Times Registration Required / Free ) This is the exact impression that must be left, the UN and the USA should not back down, North Korea must learn that it can not blackmail or threaten Western powers or its neighbours.

The North Koreans are making it known that it will see any action by the USA as act of war the New York Times Reports, ‘ North Korea…. regard increased pressure from the United States as a “declaration of war ’ Japan the BBC reports is to place sanctions on North Korea, ‘ The new Japanese measures will include banning all North Korean imports and stopping its ships entering Japanese waters, a government spokesman said. ’

The UN needs to act as one or became another league of nations, the 21st Century could be defined by this week.

The Mid Term Elections and the Polls

An interesting list of the new political polls on RCP, an article in the Washington Post has the Republican losses between seven and thirty seats also the article states the following, ‘A Democratic takeover of the House is not a foregone conclusion, however. Because of congressional redistricting plans that gave huge advantages to incumbents, fewer than 50 of the 435 House seats are competitive. Democrats said internal polls show that the fallout from the Foley scandal is confined to half a dozen races.

Partly Right on North Korea

Views waited all of Sunday for North Korea to exploded its nuclear device, with Sunday over in the UK, Views thought the last prediction had been correct, that the test was not something for the International community to worry about, hours are a long time in Politics. On the Monday morning the news that North Korea had tested a nuclear device. Then as we enter Wednesday it seems the test was not as the Spin from North Korea had intended. An interesting article in the New York Times, ‘ The North Korean test appears to have been a nuclear detonation but was fairly small by traditional standards, and possibly a failure or a partial success, federal and private analysts said yesterday. ’

Fox News reports the following, ‘ Intelligence and Defense Department officials confirmed to FOX News that the test could have been a dud, but they also advised against concluding too quickly that it was a non-nuclear event. ’

The BBC state the following, ‘ The lack of information over the blast has cast some doubts over North Korea's claim, with suggestions that the blast may have been produced by conventional explosives as part of a ruse. ’

In a sense the above does not matter, the UN and the United States have to act as if North Korea has the bomb. This is a chance for President Bush; this could be his Cuban Missile Crisis. If possible with the backing of the UN, the USA and her allies should blockaded North Korea, check every ship, the USA should do this no matter if the UN says yes or no. President Bush can use this in the Mid Term Elections; place National Security at the heart of the debate.

North Korea and a Nuclear Test

It seems that North Korea is about to join the Nuclear Club if it follows through with a Nuclear Test. Here are some interesting articles on the up and coming event, of course if the test is anything like its missile test, Views wont rush his tea.

LA Times, Click here

Fox News on UN Statement, Click here

CNN, Click here

BBC, Click here : Also interesting links on the BBC on the History of the Korean War, Click here

New York Times on American Options on North Korea, Click here Registration Required, Free )

Washington Post. Click here

Security Abroad, Security Home, Republicans are Security

If you are a Republican it is time to get the good news out, no attack on the United States since 2001, no attack on American interest since then either, no Embassy attacks, no attacks on American Ships on the High Seas. The economy is great, low unemployment, more tax money coming in to the government. The Country is at war with a Terrorist body that if it had its way would destroy Western Civilisation, the call should be, not a time of change, it is more simple, does the United States want a Speaker that is from San Francisco and is therefore more Liberal that most people on the face of this earth. A government that will add to your taxes, would if UBL was ever caught, want him tried will all the rights of an American. If a MAJOR terrorist attack were about to happen would they support or oppose the use of extreme methods to gain the information.

Think after January, a Democrat win, Higher Taxes, cut and running form Iraq, repel of the Bush Tax cuts, allow more rights for Terrorists, would oppose any military action to deal with Iran, would try to impeach George W. Bush. The Democrats once in power would use everything to stay in Power, does the United States want another House of Representatives, which the Democrats control for 40 years.

The Call should be simple, security abroad, security home, Republicans are security.

The Politics of Scandal

Here are a few interesting articles on the recent Congressional Scandal:

Time: Click here

Newsweek: Click here

Slate: Click here : This is interesting as the perception that the seat is lost to the Republicans might not be a fore gone deal.

Slate: Click here

Washington Post: Click here

Washington Times: Click here

The Future of the Speaker of the House is in question, when did he know and what did he do, an interesting Interview to read, Click here

State of Denial

A state of Denial is an interesting concept as to look at American Politics at the moment; on the one hand we have two articles, as published by the New York Times (Registration Required, Free) and Time, they both underline that what looks like a large Democratic win in November has to face political reality. As the NYT points out, the Republican base is returning to the President, recent climb in his Job Approval ratings means that his base is returning. The base might have problems with George W. Bush but they would have more problems with a Liberal Democrat from San Francisco as Speaker of he House of Representatives. The Time article looks at how Karl Rove the Master Mind of how George W. Bush has won both Presidential elections has been planning for this fight since 2004. It should be noted that the old idea that turnout out helped the Democrats was blown away by Rove who increased Republican turnout in the right areas to win the Presidency for Bush in 2004.

As noted a week is a long time in Politics, over the past few days we have had the release of the National Intelligence Estimate for April 2004, see previous Blog entry. On the heels of the NIE we have had the release of the new book by Bob Woodward, extracts can be found on the Washington Post Web Page, also Congressional Scandals that has made a Republican Congressman Resign and placed his seat with the reach of the Democrats. Views predicted that the Republicans would keep control of the House and Senate, as of today that is a lot harder to justify even with the articles in the NYT and Time. The election is a few weeks away, and it has to be recognised that if the luck follows the Democrats they should take the House and give the Republicans a run for their money in the Senate.