The New Cold War with an Old Enemy?

The New Cold War is spreading its wings. The Home Secretary, Dr John Reid has stated to the House of Commons that the police are looking at five planes that might have radiation on them, the planes have carried over thirty thousand people since the death of Mr Alexander Litvinenko. Since the statement one of the planes has been cleared, this story will run and run, and it could end up at the Kremlin, but lets not jump the gun, the police have a long trail to follow over the days and months even..

Iraq Study Group

In the New York Times Today, the news that the Iraq Study Group will ' call for a gradual pullback of the 15 American combat brigades now in Iraq but stop short of setting a firm timetable for their withdrawal, according to people familiar with the panels deliberations. ' It should be noted that also looking at Iraq mess is the National Security Council and the Pentagon. They it can be argued will take more of a White House line, no surrender. The NYT article states the following, ' as described by those familiar with the compromise, may give Republicans political cover to back away from parts of the president's current strategy, even if Democrats claim that the report is short on specific deadlines. ' The NYT states that ' If Mr. Bush adopts the recommendations, far more American training teams will be embedded with Iraqi forces, a last-ditch effort to make the Iraqi Army more capable of fighting alone. That is a step already embraced in a memorandum that Stephen J. Hadley, the national security adviser, wrote to the president this month. ' This does remind VIEWS of the Vietnam policy of the 1970's and that failed in the end.

The delayed meeting between President George W. Bush and the Prime Minister of Iraq has finally happened. The President stated the following at a Press Conference on his meeting with the PM, ' I expressed my concern about the security situation; he expressed his concern about the security situation. After all, one of his most important jobs is to provide security for the Iraqi people. Part of the Prime Minister's frustration is, is that he doesn't have the tools necessary to take care of those who break the law. ' Although the Iraq Study Group might want a compromise the President might see this has his chance to place a line in the sand and go his own way, President Ronald Reagan also had his critics and in the end he was right.

Iraq Civil War?

Is Iraq in a civil war?, the former Secretary of State, Colin Powell has call it a Civil War. Powell as mentioned is a former Secretary of State, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, National Security Advisor to President Ronald Reagan. The present President George W. Bush, has a different view, in his mind the conflict in Iraq is part of the War on Terror.

An interesting story in the Washington Times, it seems that the religious groups in Iraq are getting ready for their own war, the Times states the following, ' Rival Shi'ite and Sunni groups are massing their militias in expectation of major confrontations,..' The weakness of the government and its Prime Minister is shown as the Washington Times notes, ' Iraqis in Baghdad note that Mr. al-Maliki was pelted with rocks on Sunday when he went to visit grieving families in Sadr City -- once the base of his support. ' Has it finally come to a tipping point of all out civil war.

The informed judgment of VIEWS is that Iraq is close but not yet, there is still time, the answer is the problem.

Iraq

A planned meeting between President George W. Bush and the Prime Minister of Iraq, Nouri al-Maliki has been delayed due to a press leak from a White House Memo. The Washington Post states the following, ' The last-minute change in plans was announced the same day a classified memo from White House adviser Stephen J. Hadley was leaked to the New York Times in which Hadley questions whether Maliki "is both willing and able to rise above the sectarian agendas being promoted by others. " ' The Washington Post must be annoyed that NYT gets all the good leaks. The Article goes to state the following, ' The leaked memo, written earlier this month by national security adviser Hadley, expressed the administration's private frustration with Maliki's performance and outlined a series of proposed steps for the United States and Iraq to take. '

CNN states the following on the meeting, ' The postponement was announced shortly after Bush arrived here for talks with Jordan's King Abdullah II and al-Maliki. Bush's meeting with the king was to proceed on schedule. '

New York Times, Text of Leak Memo, Memo, in the leak memo, an interesting question is aksed of the Prime Minister, ' is he able to curb those who seek Shia hegemony or the reassertion of Sunni power? The answers to these questions are key in determining whether we have the right strategy in Iraq. '

Hastings Out

Alcee Hastings has been pushed aside as Chairman of the Intel committee by the Speaker Elect, a smart political move by Speaker Pelosi. The Congressman stated he would play an active part in the next session in January.

Three Ages of Cold War

It can be argued that first hot phase of the Cold War was the early 1960's, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the closes the world came to World War Three, then in the early 1980's we had a very cold /hot political climate in the first Term of the Reagan Administration. In the end of the Second Reagan Term the Cold War was over, the USA had won, in the end the USSR could not match the USA. In the 1990's we see the USSR became Russia, almost a Wild West Town in the 21st Century. The Wild West has been moved from Moscow to London, it is like an ex super power if the Russians are behind the killing are so weak that it sees any threat as a danger, that shows its weakness, a strong power would not really take notice of critics on the outside, when it reacts it shows how right those critics are, what is next for Russia, will it break up more. Will the CIS became hundred states of what was a great Empire.

Cold War Part Three

The death of Alexander Litvinenko opens up the question are we in a Cold War Part Three scenario, on the one hand we have Terrorists using bombs on the underground and we know face according to all the Media sources, an alleged killing spree by the successor to the KGB on London and Moscow Streets.

When Impeachment means Not Guilty!

A new article in the Washington Post on the Alcee Hastings Controversy by his Lawyer, some interesting points but he was IMPEACHED by the House and kicked out of office by the SENATE.

The Hastings Problem

Will the new Speaker – Elect appoint a former Impeached Judge, Alcee Hastings to be Chairman of the Intelligence Committee in the House of Representatives. Time States the following, ‘ Pelosi — and the Democrats, for that matter — cannot afford another misstep so early in her tenure. ’ In pure political terms the Conservative Democrats should reminded the Speaker – Elect that there is another election in Two years, and the point of the Democratic victory was based on the flaws of the Republicans, to appoint someone who was impeached and thrown out of office by the Senate would raise questions if any thing had changed on the Hill.

David Corn writing in the Liberal leaning Nation states the following on Hastings. ‘ In the late 1980s, Hastings, then a federal judge, was impeached by the Democratic-controlled House on bribery and perjury charges and removed from office by the Democratic-led Senate. He was later elected to the House and subsequently joined the intelligence committee. ’ Corn states the following solution for the new Speaker to think about, ‘ She ought to instead adopt a radical stance and give this most important job to the most qualified person. ’ This would be the prudent political action to take, or in pure political terms the Republicans can come back and say, that the Democrats have learnt nothing from their problems.

On the Assassination

The Truth is no longer Enough

The New York Times states the following on the assassination of Pierre Gemayel in Lebanon today, Gemayel, a ‘ strong opponent of Syrian influence in Lebanon, was gunned down in his car here on Tuesday afternoon, jolting a nation already paralyzed by political conflict that threatens to topple the government. ’ The assassination follows a pattern of those opposed to Syria being killed.

The general view is that Syria has had some hand in the killings, this does cause a problem, while Syria wants influence in Lebanon and uses all methods and thus causes problems for the West, we might need Syria to help the UK and USA in Iraq. A time for hard tough real politics or the pursuit of the Truth.

Time states the following on the assassination, ‘ The killing of his uncle, President Bashir Gemayel, in 1982, marked the beginning of a particularly bloody chapter in Lebanon's 15-year Civil War. And the fear now spreading through the country is that this latest attack could usher in a similar period of heightened violence. ’ Times notes as does the NYT that since the assassination of Former Prime Minister, Rafik Hariri last year, those opposed to Syria have been killed.

Time states the following, ‘ Since Hariri's death, a bombing campaign has killed or injured a series of anti-Syrian politicians and journalists. The last murder, of newspaper publisher Gebran Tueni, took place in December of last year. ’

Thus if Syria is behind the killings over the past few years and we need Syria to help us out in Iraq, it will take very careful diplomacy and averting our eyes from the Truth, in the end one has to ask what was the point of Iraq.

Syria

Is Syria behind recent developments in Lebanon, and what does this do for the problem of Iraq.

Iraq OR Nam

The mess that is Iraq, what are the options that can be meet or not meet.

1. Regional Conference with Iran, Syria, but what will they want to attend, what do they want from the West, well the USA and will their demands be meet. In the case of Syria, Lebanon under its influence and no past investigations in to its actions. In the case of Iran, the West allowing it to became a Nuclear Power but would the West allow Iran to became a armed nuclear power.

2. More Troops in, an extra twenty thousand for a short period, but will it work, if it does not work what then.

3. More Troops within the context of a phased withdrawal, in other words another Lebanon, a face saving exit, problem, Iran would win and we would be back here within a few years, with Israel and Iran eye ball to eye ball.

4. Divided Iraq between the interested Parties but keep the oil under Western control but sharing the Profits between the Parties who did not take violent action against Western Troops.

5. A Strong General to take over, not a Liberal, not a Democrat, a General who's only view is my way or the highway to those that oppose him.

6. Give up, cut and run, no way this would work, this is not the 1920s. Oil and Oil..!!

VIEWS ON IRAQ

Why does Views have a nasty feeling Iraq will became another Nam, a place of lost hope and more death. Views IDEA for Iraq:

1. More Troops, a hundred thousand more troops, clean house in the Capital.

2. Close the Borders with Syria and Iran.

3. Send the CIA in to both countries, let lose the dogs of war and win, keep them out of Iraq.

4. Also start talks with Syria, make a deal over its regional interests, break its contacts with Iran.

5. Support those opposed to the regime in Iran, CIA, do what it takes to win. JFK or RFK didn't like to lose.

6. At all costs win, losing its not an option.

Majority Leader Vote, Moderation Wins

Steny Hoyer, Majority Leader, Click here


Speaker - Elect Nancy Pelosi

Link to Speaker Elect's Home Page, Click here


John Murtha
Click here

Pictures courtesy of US Congress, Representatives Home Pages

In the race to be Majority Leader, John Murtha has lost to Steny Hoyer by 149 - 86. An Article in the Washington Post states the following, ‘… the showdown divided the Democratic House caucus only a week after the party won a majority of seats in the Congress that convenes in January. ’ After the election the Speaker - Elect stated that she looked forward to working with her Deputy. Lets see when the political fighting starts among the DEMOCRATS!!

The Democrats and Reality

Courtesy U.S Congress:
Congressman Murtha’s Official Photo, US Congress

Link to the Representative John Murtha’s, Congressional Page

Well it has taken a few days but the Democrats are returning to form, thus the case of Representative John Murtha and his attempt to become Majority Leader with the support of Nancy Pelosi. In the Washington Post Ruth Marcus writes that the Speaker-Elect has already ‘ flunked ’ her first test, and there are other problem cases for the new Speaker to deal with before January. The Congressional Newspaper The Hill States the following, ‘ Speaker-to-be Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is imploring her colleagues to support Rep. John Murtha (D-Pa.) for majority leader…’

It should be noted that Representative Murtha supported the Contra Freedom Fighters during the 1980s. A brief history of Murtha, he has served in the Military, a close relationship to this day with the military, a move and shaker in the political corridors. But more important he came out against the Iraq War and gave cover to the Liberal wing of the Democratic Party. Thus his support by Pelosi for the Job of Majority Leader.

In a press release the Congressman states the following, ‘ I intend to help to bring back to this institution: civility; credibility; respect for each other and the offices we hold; and, most importantly, hard work, compromise, and results. It will be difficult at times, no question, because it is not easy to compromise when you believe passionately in a position or a goal. …. But like any authority figure, we have an impact on those who look to us and see in our behavior the example of what is and is not acceptable, professional, honorable, and American. We must set a new standard for leadership in this Congress because Americans are watching and so we must lead by example. ’

If Murtha should win, then his previous actions in the 1980s when he was caught up in a Congressional scandal would come back to haunt the Democrats, if he should lose it would show Pelosi as weak even before coming Speaker. As Views recalls the 1980s under a Democratic Congress let the fun start!!

Remembrance Day

Today we remember those that have died in the Service of the Crown past and present. Today we learnt that UK forces have lost four troops on the Shatt al - Arab waterway in Basra and a further three troops have been severely injured. It is a time to pray and remember past and present losses. It is a day to Remember.

BBC News Story of the Attack today.

Ministry of Defence Statement on the attack and loss of troops. Click here.

In total the UK has lost 125 personnel from the armed forces in Iraq.

When does the Political War Start?

Courtesy of the White House
The President meets with Nancy Pelosi.

For full story Click here.

It has to be wondered with 2008 only two years away when does the all out political war start. Views would guess half way through next year.

The Truth and Politics and Iraq

Courtesy of the White House

The President with the Cabinet this Morning.

The President has stated that the New Democratic Leaders will be given all the information they need as to form policy. The question is if you’re a Democrat is it better to have all the information or plead that you didn’t know. Easy to plead that if not in power, but the Democrats are now in control of Congress. They have their Seat at the Table; in 2008 will that be a bonus or a major hindrance to the Democratic Nominee. Yes Folks the 2008 Election starts NOW. If you’re a political geek this is great, if not a political geek why not!!

Interesting Articles on the Election Aftermath

Courtesy of the White House, from left to right.
Secretary Rumsfeld, President George W. Bush and Robert Gates.
The President announced the Resignation of Secretary Rumsfeld and the Nomination of Robert Gates as his successor.

The Presidential Statement: Click here

Article in Slate on Robert Gates, the Nominee for Secretary of Defense, Click here.

Robert Novak Article on Robert Gates, Novak points out that Gates in the past tried to keep Intelligence ‘pure’, in other words not slanted to fit policy requirements, interesting. Click here.

The return of Bush 41, Interesting article on the perceived return of the Advisors of 41 to fix the mess of 43. Click here.

Article in the New York Times on Robert Gates, for the NYT almost supportive! Click here.

Another positive article this time from the Washington Post, Click here.

Politics is a mean Business

Mr Rumsfeld out, Enter Mr Gates. An interesting article in Time on the New Secretary of Defense, Click here.

Brief Overview of the Election Result

Thus as of writing this brief overview, the Democrats have taken the House and are two seats short of taking the Senate, two Seats are still outstanding. Thus the question why, with the exception of Iraq the Unites States at the moment is going through a great financial period, low inflation and unemployment, the Stock Market is going through the roof, the 1920s again. And after 9/11 no terrorist attack on the United Stats or her interests around the world, this not including Iraq. Thus the cautionary tale of Sir Winston Churchill in 1945.

After five years as Prime Minister and the defeat of Germany in 1945, the election of 1945 was seen as an easy victory for Churchill, of course we had the Labour government in 1945. 9/11 happened five years ago, no attack since, the terrorists have been removed from Afghanistan; the group has morphed in to a franchise operation with independent operators in different parts of the world. Thus they are harder to find as we saw by 7/7, but also they are less organized to plan a massive terrorist attack. It can be argued that UBL and ‘ The Base ’, his terrorist group, where are at their height pre 9/11, after 9/11 the group and its leaders and its supporters where either caught, killed or returned to their homes and hid their guns till they came back to fight British Forces over the last few years.

Thus we come to Iraq, it has to be asked with all the information we have now, what would have been the right policy to have when it comes to Iraq. As Iraq had no Weapons of Mass Destruction it has to be asked from a British point of view if the loss of 121 troops was worth the cost in sacrifice of our brave troops. Pre Iraq was many supported the government based on its argument that Iraq had WMD and it could be used in short order. Thus after 9/11 the wait and see policy was not an option, those that support a tough security policy supported the government based on the information it has been given, and saw those that opposed such action as weak if no appeasers, it can be argued that those that opposed the War had a point if only in a narrow manner that other options should be considered. The guilty sentence on its former leader can be argued made the war a right policy decision. Our troops are fighting a noble mission, we cant walk away that would be weak.

Thus the Mid Term Elections in many respects has given the USA and the UK a get out clause, the Democrats want change, well this is a chance for President Bush, they want to seat at the table, well drag them in and force them to take a stand, force the fissions with the Democratic Party, between the cut and run lot, that policy would hand the terrorist a victory that would cost the west for years, those that want to divide Iraq, any one with a brief knowledge of history should recall the death and destruction that was caused by the British division of India and Pakistan, not our finest hour. Those that want to put an Iraq face on the military, in other words to use the old American policy from Vietnam, and that didn’t work out well as we all now, that was a disaster for Vietnam and for the countries around Vietnam.

The above just shows there are no great options for Iraq, lets hope the Baker Report has a get out clause for the USA and the UK and one that the Democrats cant run away from, they wanted to win so they own the results.

Oh!!

Bill Clinton was a great President

Final Predictions for the Mid Term Elections in the United States on the 7th of November 2006

Well folks it’s predicting time, who are going to be the winner and losers this election cycle.

Interesting article in the Washington Post, way down in the article it mentions that the generic polls is now 45 – 51 in favour of the Democrats. It should be noted that the article gives the impression that the election is a done deal, I would expect more from the Washington Post.

Here comes VIEWS prediction on House Seats. I will use the following guides, Democratic Pick Up, and 50/50. As it is about how many seats the Democrats can pick up to take the House, I will look at these and any seats they might have at risk. As a guide I have used the Seats suggested by RCP.

DPU

Arizona 8
Pennsylvania 10
Colorado 7
Ohio 18
New York 24

50/50 Personal View

Texas 22 ( R Hold )
Florida 16 ( R Hold)
Indiana 8
Pennsylvania 7
Iowa 1
North Carolina 11 (R Hold )
New Mexico 1

The Above are from RCP list of leaning Democrat / 12, Views has DPU 5 in the Bag, in the 50/50 Range I have the Republicans holding the Delay and Foley Seat, that places 4 in the 50/50 range.

The next section is based on the Seats that RCP places in the 50/50 range.


DPU

Ohio 15
Connecticut 4

50/50 PV

Indiana 2 ( R Hold )
Pennsylvania 6
New York 26 (R Hold)
Indiana 9 (R Hold)
Florida 13 ( R Hold)
Connecticut 5
Illinois 6
Minnesota 6 ( R Hold)
New York 20
Ohio 1 ( R Hold)
New Hampshire 2 ( R H)
Arizona 5 ( R H)

Overall Views has the Democratic Pick up at 7 in the bag. The Republicans holding 8 by a slight margin and in the 50/50 margin, 4 Seats. This would give the Democrats 11 Seats, 4 short of Control in the House. If you add the Four seats left from above, that would give them a control.

On the RCP there are two Democratic Seats that are in the 50/50 range: Views sees the following going to the Republicans, Georgia 12,

Thus if you follow the political polls, the Democrats are heading for a wave a new seats in Congress, VIEWS has a different view, here goes, the Republicans hold both Champers. If you are a Republican in the seats I have discussed could you please VOTE for the Republican Candidate or else Views will have to say Bill Clinton was a great President. And that would be beyond a nightmare for this political geek, so VOTE and VOTE Republican.