National Intelligence Estimate for April 2006

The NIE (Adobe Reader Required) is interesting but hardly has anything new in it that those that follow this issue could not discuss it without its publication. As should be noted on P.3 the NIE states the following, ‘ Should al-Zarqawi continue to evade capture and scale back attacks against Muslims, we assess he could broaden his popular appeal and present a global threat. ‘ Zarqawi is of course dead, thus one has to ask the point to release a document that is old is the present circumstances of Iraq. Its timing and the selective leaks has more to with the Mid Term Elections than helping people decided their views on Iraq.

It has to be stated, that if this is the combined work of sixteen intelligence agencies, the American Government has a problem, we need something new, how al – Qa ‘ ida is been run at the moment by UBL, is he dead, the French seem to have better information or at least some information. How do we prevent Terrorist Cells forming or how do we get our people in to these Cells as prevent their development. How al – Qa ‘ ida is working with insurgents in Iraq, how to cause friction, how to cause them to fall apart, how to gain information on even smaller cells from around the World.

The NIE is interesting but lets hope the real interesting stuff is under cover, the New York Times is not the place to discuss policy disagreements that can cause the death of thousands, there are limits, lets put some journalists under pressure, drag them in Court, if they don’t release their sources, the slammer time, and real time not some comfort farm, we are at War, this is not Vietnam, and the LIBERALS better smell the coffee or the American people will never trust them will the Security of the United States.

Bill Clinton Interview and the Mid Term Elections

Dick Morris, Bill Clinton’s Karl Rove, states the following, ‘ But beyond noting the ex-president’s non-presidential style, it is important to answer his distortions and misrepresentations. His self-justifications constitute a mangling of the truth which only someone who once quibbled about what the “definition of ‘is’ is” could perform. ’

The Bill Clinton Interview flare up still in the news, an Opinion piece in the Los Angeles Times by Andrew Klavan is interesting, he has the stated the following on Bill Clinton, ‘ He thinks reality itself is being wrestled away from him, that he can wrestle it back and mold it into the shape he wants it to have. ‘

A very interesting article by John McIntyre, President and co-founder of RealClearPolitics on the Mid Term Elections, McIntyre has written the following, ‘ Dem pick-up of four seats which would leave them short of the six they need, and I suspect they would fall short in the House as well, picking up something like 9-12 seats.

Tony Blair and the Labour Conference

Well today was Tony Blair’s final speech as Party Leader at a Labour Conference. As of the speech, it was typical Labour spin; full of what New Labour has done in the Public Sector. As a Teacher Views can state a judgement on how New Labour has affected the education field. As a Teacher Views has been to the worse of bog standard Schools, buildings falling down, bad teachers, no supplies for teaching and the feeling one is in a war zone. On the other hand Views has been to the best of the PFI Schools, new buildings, money spent on supplies, good teachers etc. The problem that New Labour has not dealt with is although you can spend all the money in the world, if the teachers have no authority in the classroom, money spent is worthless.

On the health service, Views has to give Labour high marks, Views has seen the Health Service close up, in the early mid 1990s, going in to Hospital was not looked at by Views as the best option but having seen the Health Service doing an excellent job at the start of the 21st Century. In the 1990s a long stay in Hospital was even more uncomfortable even without the ill health, now a long stay in Hospital is made more bearable by the fact that while in Hospital you can have access to your own TV, this might sound like something quite small but if one is ill, it helps to have something normal, and nearly all watch TV. Also patients have access to a telephone, so no march down to the telephone or waiting for a phone to be bought to you, access at any time to family helps in the creation of normality.

Thus we come to Foreign Policy, the Prime Minister defended his policy on Afghanistan and Iraq, as Views supports both military actions it was interesting more to see how Labour reacted to this section of speech, more polite applause, not earth shattering support. On Terrorism, Views supports the 90-day keeping of suspects and hopes either Tony Blair or Gordon Brown brings the bill back to the House of Commons.

On the SKY news coverage, there was a box with a live view of Gordon Brown, dour, miserable, come to mind. Views can recall about two smiles and one was when Tony Blair praised Gordon Brown.

Views shall miss Tony Blair, after Lady Thatcher the best Conservative Prime Minister the country has had, what will Gordon the Dour be when he shall became PM.

Main Stream Media and the Mid Term Elections

The Main Stream Media, MSM seem to be taking a more cautious line on the Mid Term Elections, interesting articles in Time and the Washington Post on how the election might turn out over the next couple of weeks.

President Bill Clinton's Interview on Fox News

Transcript

The Fox News Transcript

The Washington Post Report on THE INTERVIEW

Article on RealClearPolitics on Clinton and 9/11 , Views very much agrees with this commentary on Bill Clinton.‘ Someone else should be trusted to do the scoring when it comes to Clinton's time in office. In the history books, he deserves to be counted as the President who did not protect us against al-Qaeda, who left the impression they could attack us without penalty, whose wasted opportunities contributed to the travesty of 9/11.

American Presidential Politics

It is interesting how a former President spends his time; if a successful President then you can spend you time in the glow of your time served as President. President Ronald Reagan was seen to have had a successful Presidency. In the year that he left office, the Berlin Wall came down, the Democratic Movement won in Nicaragua and the Soviet where out of Afghanistan. In essence Reagan had achieved what he had wanted to achieve when he became President in 1981. Thus we come to President Bill Clinton.

It has to be stated that when Bill Clinton was running in 1993 against Bush 41, VIEWS could see that he was a great politician but could not believe that the American Public would vote with a man with so many drawbacks on the personal level no matter how intelligent and charismatic he was, NO JFK but not bad. Views was reading the Broadsheets in his first year at University and his friends asked him who would win the election, Views wanted to say Bush 41 but he had to give a truthful ANSWER, it would be Clinton. VIEWS was about to give Clinton the benefit the doubt then he heard his first inaugural Speech and the perceived attack on the Reagan and Bush years, VIEWS recalled thinking people in glass houses should be careful not to attack others for mistakes when one was on thin ice concerning one’s own behaviour, draft dodger and the alleged affairs, he refused to confirm Gennifer Flowers at the time but this turned out to be true. After that VIEWS would tend to take a negative view of Bill Clinton. Clinton never let VIEWS down in his ability to create a negative out of nothing. Thus by the end of his Presidency, he had failed to get a Middle East Peace, North Korea was back to where the administration had started in 1993, Terrorism had declared WAR on the USA in the shape of UBL and then we have the Pardon scandal of the last day of Bill Clinton combined with plea deal to end the investigations of Bill Clinton that started with Whitewater and ended up by his trial and Impeachment over an affair with a White House Intern. VIEWS could not wait for Bill Clinton to go, enough was enough by 2000.

Then we come to blame game for 9/11, as VIEWS has stated neither Clinton or Bush are to blame for lack of action more for leadership before 9/11. But it should be noted that Bill Clinton had eight years while George W. Bush had less than seven months and before 9/11 Bush had decided he was going to do lot more than Clinton had done, no more missiles in empty tents.

Thus today we have Bill Clinton on Fox news, if the transcript is full the Clinton handlers should be worried should Senator Hillary R. Clinton the Junior Senator from New York decided to run for President. Does seem that Clinton does not do well when coming under critical inspection, perhaps he should stick to soft pieces as if he behaves like that during the election he may finish Hillary Clinton chances before they start, in a election cycle of American Presidential Politics these days, the opposition would have an extra field day with Bill Clinton if that is how he is going to behave when being interviewed by the Press. The Main Stream Media might be Liberal but they want a good story, and a Former President going off one, as we would say over water does great things for selling papers or rating for 24-hour news. Perhaps the former President should keep on the golf course and leave the politics to the Junior Senator. It has been noticed by VIEWS that President Clinton has a complex about Reagan, VIEWS recalls reading that it really annoyed Clinton that Reagan could walk ways from things while Clinton would be attacked, does sound a lot like the complex Nixon had about Kennedy.

American Politics Update

A new patch of polls on the approval rating for President George W. Bush, in the Los Angeles Times we have the President at 44% approval and 54 Negative. The New York Times Poll does seem out of sink with recent Polls, in this Poll the President is at 37% approval and 56% negative.

On the Legal front Mr Libby has perhaps got a way to finish his case before a Trial next year, a Judge has decided that Mr Libby should have access to Secret Information, the administration has to decided if the information can be released or otherwise the case would have to be dropped due to the fact that Mr Libby could not have access to these secret documents.

The Prediction for the American Mid Term Elections

In the business of political predictions, it is easier to hold your fire and wait till a few days or hours before the Polls close to make you views open to the public. Views has a different idea, you place you neck on the chopping block and take a risk. The latest Gallup Poll has Bush on 44% approval rating, 51% negative; this has followed a trend in political polls with the President in the mid 40s. The question has to be asked why the President is making such an improvement when in the past few months his ratings have been to used a very accurate phrase in the toilet.

Thus we have the following issues, the threat from Terrorism, the plot was that uncovered in August in London, the anniversary of 9/11, this had reminded Americans that the United States has not been attacked since, while there have been attacks in Spain and London. The cost of Gas or Petrol for cars has gone down, while the Prices have gone down the President’s approval rating have gone up. The President has bought the major negative of Iraq and placed it in the context of the War on Terrorism, the Democrats argue that it is a separate issue but a new Poll by Fox show that the War has 51% support compared to 44%. The WAR ON TERROR is in Iraq, that is where its fate will be decided, however much Democrats want a new policy it is seen as cutting and running, and being seen as weak on Foreign Policy is not good for Democrats.

At this present time we have a debate about how to deal with Islamic Terrorists, the Democrats see this as an issue they can use as Senator John McCain is opposed to the severe treatment that the President wants to allow the CIA to use, it worked on Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and helped prevent attack on the United States. The President has stated that if the Senate does not allow such measures they will be stopped, one can only imagine should another attack take place and it is found that the information could have been found if severe treatment has been used, McCain would be finished as a contender for the Republican nomination in 2008. What ever the United States Supreme Court thinks, Al Qaeda are Islamic Terrorists not the Vietcong and this is not Vietnam. It can be argued as Ronald Reagan stated in 1976 about the then USSR, there can only be one winner and the loser has to be Al Qaeda and it’s franchise operation, they have to be destroyed or they will try and destroy the West and its Liberal Democracy, take care of business first then argue about civil liberties, Liberals seem to have this view that theory matters more than the security of the individual. The American public seem to have got the idea before the leaders of the Democratic Party and some Liberal Senators in the United States Senate, who are there to protect the people of the United States not to care what the rest of the world thinks about its use of severe treatment to protect the country.

Thus we come to Prediction time, as to the United States Senate, the general views is that the Republicans will hold this chamber. I think it will be lot closer than people think, but the Republicans will hold it by 1 or 2 seats. As to the House of Representatives, the generic polls on who the American people would vote for have come a lot closer, as from my previous Blog, three points difference in favour of the Democrats, if that carries on the Democrats would be lucky to win any seats it has been stated by political writers, but here is VIEWS prediction, the Republicans will hold the Chamber by Six seats.

Can the Democrats lose again?

An interesting article in the Washington Times on how the Republicans are gaining ground for control of Congress, Click Here

An interesting article by the Boston Globe on how the 9/11 anniversary has helped the President and the Republican Party before the Mid Term Elections, Click Here

The Mid Term Elections in the United States

The signs are that the Republicans are making a fight of it in the Congressional elections, an interesting article in the New York Daily News, suggests that Republicans will hold the Senate. Political Analysts over the water seem to agree that the Democrats don’t have enough wind to their back to win the Senate this time around. On the race for the House of Representatives, it depends on which polls you prefer, RealClearPolitics has an Average of Democrats leading by 9.5 compared to Republicans, including the below Fox Poll. On the other hand the Fox Channel has a Poll of Likely Voters, which has the Democrats only leading by 3 points. As we are a few weeks away from the election, Views is reminded of a often used quote, ‘ A week is a long time in Politics ’ and what can change the political landscape, ‘ Events, Events, Events ’.

The Path to 9/11 / The Mini Series

The mini series was interesting, not sure it was the smartest move by the Clinton Crowd to demand that ABC take it off. The film itself was well acted, well written and made you feel like you where been taken in to how the USA government reacted to the threat of Terrorism. In a article for RealClearPolitics Victor Davis Hanson writes the following about the mini series, ‘ I found The Path to 9/11, with its disclaimers, far closer to the "truth" about the saga of bin Laden than what turned up in Bill Clinton's "factual" autobiography. ’

A counter view can be found in the Washington Post by an article by Ruth Marcus, Marcus writes the following, ‘ The docudrama is an inherently flawed form, one that invites embroidery. The irony of "The Path to 9/11" is that this dramatic license was so unnecessary, given the richly detailed narrative in a document available to the docudrama's ’

In the View of Views after reading the 9/11 report and seeing this mini series, the blame for the lack of leadership in dealing with the threat from UBL has to be placed at the feet of all policy makers both Democrat and Republican. As a student of International Politics and International History, terrorism was seen as a major threat, but invading Afghanistan and Iraq based on that threat was not something Views had thought about as a serious possibility. The events of 9/11 changed the thought process of many, one can not blame Clinton or Bush for 9/11, but one can hold them for account for lack of leadership in thinking outside the box, Ronald Reagan in 1976 stated about the USSR, that there could only be one winner and one loser, and that loser would be the USSR. The Presidents that came after lacked that leadership quality. That is why Discovery Channel watchers voted the greatest American, Ronald Reagan.

9/11

9/11 A DAY OF REMEMBRANCE

Pardon Mr Libby Campaign

Further articles which show why Mr Libby should be PARDONED by President Bush:

CBS, Click Armitage On CIA Leak: 'I Screwed Up', CBS Exclusive: Interview With Man Who 'Outed' CIA Agent Valerie Plame - CBS News

Libby Defense Trust, Click Libby Legal Defense Trust : The Trust has been joined by the great actor Ron Silver ( West Wing Fame )

NewsBusters, Click Matthews: Plame Story Too Complicated to Cover Now NewsBusters.org , from a quick look at this web page, quite interesting on how the liberal Main Stream Media perceives the case of Mr and Mrs Wilson now that Mr Armitage has come forward. As Armitage was seen as a critic of Neo Conservartives and the their policy on Iraq, the CIA case has been to use the old British Comedy Term, Drop the Dead Donkey

Tony Blair 1 – Gordon Brown 0

The Prime Minister got away with it again, it looked like the Tipping Point had been reached, then Gordon Brown pulled back, he did not want to be seen as pushing Tony Blair out of 10 Downing Street for the last time. Gordon Brown showed why Tony Blair is Prime Minister and why he is the Chancellor. If you put the shoes on the other foot, I have my doubts if Tony Blair would wait for Gordon Brown to leave 10 Downing Street. I can’t see the Prince of Spin or Europe waiting a year to help his friend became PM. It has to be asked is the Labour Party more interested in form, as in gentleman conduct or winning elections. Lets go back to 1990, when Thatcher was stabbed in the back by her own Cabinet, John Major went form there to win the 1992 election. The Conservatives are more ruthless, that why they where in power for most of the 20th Century.

As Views is from Wales, one has to take in to account the Welsh Assembly, Scottish Parliament elections and the local Council elections in England. Is the Labour really about to allow itself to lose control of Scotland to a combination of the SNP and the Liberal Democrats and in Wales to the very odd combination of the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and the Party of Wales. It seems the idea is if the elections go badly then Tony Blair will take the blame and resign and the Gordon Brown takes over. It seems the Party has forgotten that the point of political Parties is to win elections not to be seen as having good form, a week in politics is a long time, if the Party had a new leader before Christmas not in May then Gordon Brown could stamp HIS authority on the Party, even perhaps one or two tax cuts for middle England. If the Labour allows this to go till May of 2007, then in some respects it has forgotten the lessons of New Labour, when old polices or politicians are in the way it is time to give them the old retirement watch. It has to be asked is Tony Blair more interested in the Labour Party or his legacy, not necessary the same thing, as he stated in his statement, he is not fan of the TUC and it is mutual. Since the news broke about the cash for Peerages mess, the Labour Party has found rich individual people who want to give the Party money very slim on the ground. Thus the TUC has become the Party’s main supplier of money again. If Gordon Brown wants a quick succession and the TUC want some power again, they need to get Tony Blair out of 10 Downing Street by Christmas or February at the latest.

But is must be admitted that Tony Blair is still the best, Gordon Brown has a lot to make up before we say Prime Minister Gordon Brown…

Tony Blair Crossroads

Today is the day, will Tony Blair make a comment that will keep Brown’s baying wolfs from his No 10 Door or is his departure written in the political stars. The day is the return of politics as we who have an interest in politics understand the game, since Tony Blair has come to power, the rules of politics seem to have been frozen, for years it was like Teflon Tony, the Conservatives could never get him, so what would bring Tony Blair down. Would the Prime Minister follow the path of Harold Wilson who surprised the nation with his leaving and did it in a manner of his choosing. Or would he be like Lady Thatcher, not seeing it was time and being forced out by her cabinet and Members of Parliament.

The problems started in 2004 when the Prime Minister stated he would not run for a fourth term, it was only a matter of time before there would be calls for his early retirement. Thus we have this almost Thatcher moment, when he does go, it wont be when wanted to go, by the news leaks and reports it could be after the New Year, but then it has to be asked why he does not go before the Queen’s Speech in November which will introduce the new agenda for Parliament. It will be the agenda of Gordon Brown, so what is the point of causing more friction, the news reports state that Tony Blair will follow the example of Margaret Thatcher and John Major and stay in Parliament, one has to ask why, he never showed much interest in the House of Commons, lets us recall his Chief Whip sent him home before a vote which they lost by one Vote.

Views has not written off Tony Blair yet, today will be interesting, finally British Politics is fun again!!

The Libby Pardon Campaign

Boston Herald Article, Click BostonHerald.com - Opinion & Editorial: Time for Prez to pardon Libby

New York Post, Click here

Weekly Standard, Click here

The Washington Post, In Views view a very fair article, Click here

American and British Politics and Foreign Policy

Once Tony Blair came back from his holiday the chattering classes returned to their favourite sport, when would the Prime Minister decided to go, so the press could have a new story under the Premiership of Gordon Brown. As it has been noted Tony Blair bought this on himself before the last election by stating he would not run for a fourth term, the day after the election it started how long would New Labour have Tony Blair in charge at 10 Downing Street. In recent interviews and news stories, the Prime Minister has stated that he would not get in to the issue of when he was going. This has of course irritated Gordon Brown supporters, who must being to wonder if Brown has the political muscle to tell the Prime Minister that he must go for the good of the Party and the Country. The Terror scare wave at the moment has put Dr Reed, the Home Secretary at the forefront, is Tony Blair waiting for Gordon Brown to fowl up any way as to allow others to challenge him for the leadership later next year. The question has to be asked does the Prime Minister have the time, or will the guys in overalls, this is the Labour Party after all, come calling and say it time the Prime Minister took up the Lecture circuit in the United States. It has been argued that the Labour Party has very complicated rules to get rid of a sitting Prime Minister, but in the end it was the Cabinet that removed Lady Thatcher, will we see a second Cabinet Revolt before the Welsh Assembly and Scottish Parliament elections. Time and Tide wait for no man even if he is Tony Blair.

On the American scene we have the Bush Administration coming out in defence of their Iraq policy before the Mid Term Elections, at the moment according to the Polls the Democrats should take the House of Representatives over the 15 seats they need to take control, the Senate still to close to call. But Views political gut is not sure that will be the result, as a British Prime Minister once stated, ‘ A week is a long time in Politics ‘. An interesting article in the Sunday Times, Friends of Hillary hint she may pull out of presidential race , in essence the article suggests that Hillary R. Clinton the Junior Senator from New York might not run for President and stay in the Senate. It should be noted that the last Senator to win the Presidency was John F. Kennedy. Bob Dole in 1996 and John F. Kerry in 2004 failed to win. In really depends on who the Republican candidate is, if John McCain or Rudy Giuliani; the Sunday Times also has an article on Giuliani; win the nomination it would be very hard for Hillary R. Clinton to win the General Election.

On the international front we have Iran and Afghanistan, Iran has rejected UN demands, the general analytical view is that this crisis is a slow burning one, and one President Bush wont allow to go to the distance, a Nuclear armed Iran. As to Afghanistan, the UK has lost 15 personnel in a week, one soldier through combat and 14 others from different sections of the armed forces from what looks like a technical fault on the plane. Afghanistan worries Views more in some respects that Iraq, the mission has changed, we have only about 800 combat troops in theatre. The Troops need time to relax, from reports they are in constant combat with the Taliban and the planes used to transfer troops and in combat operations are being pressed to their maximum use due to the conditions in both Afghanistan and Iraq. It seems in views eyes we have to but more troops on the ground, 800 combat troops are not enough in an area the size of Wales.