Obama and the Swing States

The Hill: Reports on a new poll of the Swing States in the 2012 race, the articles notes the following, " the president is ahead in 10 of the 12 vital states. If those polls were borne out on Election Day, Obama would coast to victory with 332 electoral college votes. "

Lets Get Real:

It not even August yet folks, Governor Romney has not picked a VP, the there is the National Conventions and finally the all import Debates. Also lets not forget the fact that the Obama Camp has out spent Romney in this early stage, nearly all the Obama adverts are negative. Thus the fact that Romney and Obama are tied in most polls is great for Romney. It would be great if Romney was ahead, but the plus for the Romney Camp is the fact that they will have more money on hand when the race really starts after Labour Day in the US. The polls in September and October are important folks, if Obama is ahead and this blog thinks he will win it will say so, its a Conservative blog but its not blind. It wants to be right. It is just to early to say folks. The Presidential Debates could be the decider as they were in 1960, 1976, 1980 and 2000. Thus if your a Republican you should not be that depressed but if your a Democrat do not be to cocky, events, events folks.

Bill Clinton and Obama - 2012 Race

Guardian: Reports that former US President Bill Clinton will nominate President Obama at the Democratic Convention, the article notes the following, " ties between Obama and Bill Clinton have strengthened significantly ".

Lets Get Real:

If the Guardian even thinks that Bill Clinton likes Obama they should register for a Guide Dog, it can argued that Bill Clinton loathes Obama, not just because he beat Hillary Clinton in 2008, but due to the fact that the Obama Campaign in 2008 used the race card on the first " Black " President, and that is Clinton folks not Obama, Hawaii does not cut it, its not the Deep South. Thus the question what is Bill Clinton up to, if Hillary Clinton follows through with her statement that she wants out of a 2nd term is Clinton looking to replace her, or is this a bigger game, does the Slick Willy ( BC) expect Obama to lose to Romney and thus making sure that Hillary Clinton does not get any critical reviews by action by Bill, that is how they play the game in the Clinton household folks. Or it could be more basic folks, BC just loves the TV, wants to be the centre of attention, he does have that flaw.

Syrian Update - Syrian Crisis

BBC News: Reports that two hundred thousand Syrians have left the Syrian City of Aleppo due to the fighting between the forces of the Assad Regime and the Free Syrian Army.

Lets Get Real:

Thus the question that has to be asked, what is the West going to do folks, the answer is NOTHING. The Assad Regime would have to start using its WMD's on its own people before the West would take action, and lets be very honest here folks, the action would be taken not to save the Syrian people but to make sure that terrorists did not get their hands on such weapons or that the Syrian Regime gave these WMD's to terrorists in the region, this would be seen as a threat to Israel and thus either Israel or the US would have to act, the Assad Regime is a criminal regime, that does not make it stupid, one can presume that Russia and China have made it clear to Assad that if he uses chemical weapons he is on his own, thus the Syrian people will die while the West looks to the Olympics, that is the real world folks, sad but true.

Aleppo Massacre ? - Syrian Update

BBC News: Reports that the UK Government has warned of a potential massacre in Aleppo, the 2nd City of Syria.

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks we shall see if the West, and in this case the Obama Administration has the backbone to go around the UN Security Council and prevent a bloody massacre in Aleppo, in Libya after a UN resolution the West in the shape of NATO bought down the Gaddafi Regime, much to the horror of Russia and China, the Russians with their Port in Syria are not going to move, and China on this issue goes along with Russia, lets face China had its own massacre of those seeking democracy, thus they have reasons to prevent the UN looking at the internal affair of other States. The question is will the Oval take action, or are we looking at another Bosnia, thousands killed before the US takes action, of course Obama has a problem, its an election year, how many innocent people getting killed on our TV screens can Obama put up with before he has to take action, with or without UN approval. The US left will never support another War in the Middle East, thus many poor Syrians might have to die before President Obama finds his backbone. Harsh but TRUE folks.

Greece on the Edge - Eurozone Crisis

Daily Mail: Reports that the Greek PM Antonis Samaras is meeting the troika of the EU/IMF/ECB to persuade them to give Greece the final part of the bailout agreed between Greece and the EU.

Lets Get Real:

The Germans are worried that they are going to be conned again, they give the green light to the bailout then Greece comes back later and asks for money money, also the Germans are worried that the Spanish will be next with their begging bowl, and if you include Italy that would cost trillions. It can be argued that Germany is looking for a reason to kick Greece out of the Euro, the lack of reforms in Greece could be the perfect reason. If the troika gives Greece this final part of the bailout it can be postulated that Berlin is hoping it will work, in betting terms folks that is betting on long odds. The Greeks will never reform, they know that the Berlin is scared of the effects of a Greek exit, thus the view from Athens is that they have the Germans over a barrel, the problem is that the German tax payer has had enough, all politics is local folks, at the end of the day German politicians might have no choice but to cut Greece adrift, lets see who has the best poker hand folks.

Obama vs. Romney - Friday Polls

It is that time of the week folks, the Friday Polls. The usual warning its only July folks, we still have the national conventions to go and Romney has to pick his VP. Then we have the debates.

Rasmussen Reports ( LV ): Reports on its daily tracking poll, today Governor Romney leads President Obama by 49% to 44%. A 5% lead.

Gallup ( RV ): Reports on its daily tracking poll, today both President Obama and Governor are tied at 46%.

Lets Get Real:

If your in the Romney Camp you will be spinning the Rasmussen Poll, this shows Romney with a 5%, what is good for this blogger about this poll is that counts likely voters, people who on the whole will get off their backsides and VOTE. The Registered Voter Poll might have those that support Obama or Romney but will never go out and vote. In essence folks neither candidate as defined the other, the Obama Camp has thrown enough dirt but it has just kept them in the game, it has not removed Romney as a threat. In the Romney Camp they have started to fight back, they have been helped by the political gaffes of the President, his remarks that the private sector is doing fine and that individuals do not build their own business will help those that were suspect about Obama to go to Romney. Also older people tend to vote in larger numbers that younger people, thus lets see the effect of the Supremes stating that ObamaCare is a tax, this could really hurt Obama on election day. Thus folks it might come down to the Presidential Debates, in that Obama should be the favourite, but that could be a problem, as long as Romney does not fall over he could win by default. Lets see folks.

Obama vs. Romney - Mid Week Polls

Lets have a look at the Polls as Governor Romney heads for his oversees trip, the Republican Nominee will visit the UK, Poland and Israel.

Rasmussen Reports ( LV ): In its latest daily tracking poll it finds that Governor Romney leads President Obama by 47% to 44%, a 3%.

Gallup ( RV ): In its latest daily tracking poll it finds that Governor Romney leads President Obama by 46% to 45%.

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks the candidates are tied, neither has defined the other enough to gain a big lead, thus we come down the the National Conventions and the debates. The talk in the D.C beltway is the the discussion as to the nature of this race, is this 1980 again with Romney as Reagan or 2004 with Obama as Bush 43, thus far to be honest folks its very hard to judge, the Obama Camp has used the 1996 play book of Bill Clinton trying to define Romney before he can define himself, thus following the example of the Republicans in 2004 who defined Senator Kerry and thus his defeat. Although the Chicago Re-Elect Committee has kept the Oval in the race it has not managed to build on its image of Romney as a out of touch rich guy, in fact POTUS has made a few political gaffes, he stated that the private sector was doing fine and that individuals do not build their companies. This has taken the pressure of Romney and his business record. As to the Romney Camp it has started to fight back, but it has to get in to the trenches, pick a attack dog for VP, then really go after the Oval with adverts and at the Convention. Thus down to the debates folks, can Romney do a Reagan and pass that line of looking Presidential, or will be be Ford, and look out of touch. The debates could decide this race folks, fun times ahead folks.

Obama and Business - Obama Advert

Lets Get Real:

This advert shows that POTUS knows that he made a great political gaffe by stating that individuals do not build a business. Simple question folks, which Obama statement do you believe, when he is says what he thinks in a speech or this advert.

Greece and the EU

Guardian: Reports on the reaction of the Troika; EU/IMF/ECB; on their latest visit to Greece, the article notes the following, " ..warned that Greece had failed to keep to the deficit reduction plan agreed earlier this year. ".

Lets Get Real:

The Germans see Greece as a toilet for THEIR money, an endless flushing of German tax payer money down the toilet. The Greeks will NEVER reform, in their heart of hearts they think that the Germans will always bail them out, if it was only Greece they might have a point, but Spain and Italy are on the horizon, at the end of the day Greece can be chopped off, it will be painful but the EU will go on, if Spain and Italy fall its over, the Germans might need all their spare cash to save these two Countries, and folks we are talking in the trillions here, not just billions, the Greeks have become a cancerous pest on the body of the Euro, its time to cut them off, the EU has tried to save them, but it can not be done, just will not happen, Greece is set for a depression that will last for years if not decades, that is just the TRUTH. Time to move on and deal with the Spain and Italy, you lose some battles in a War, the War is Spain and Italy.

Syrian Crisis - Syrian Update

Telegraph: Reports that Syrian rebels have stated that the Assad Regime has moved its WMD'S to airports on the borders of Syria.

Lets Get Real:

If true this is a troubling development folks, one can assume that the Israeli Mossad, the US CIA and the UK's MI6 will be looking very careful at the actions of the Assad Regime, should the Regime be trying to send these weapons to its terrorists allies then Israel would have to take action, this would be a mortal threat to Israel. Of course the information is coming from the rebels, thus has to be suspect, they might be wanting the West to take action as they took in Libya. The rebels might want the West to enforce a No Fly Zone as to prevent air attacks from the Assad Regime, that is what this blog would do if in their position. Thus lets hope the Western intelligence networks have their eye and ears open, in other words, people on the ground and listening to internal Syrian government communication. Israel and the West can not afford to be wrong when it comes to Syria.

Spanish Update - Eurozone Crisis

BBC News: Reports that the cost of Spanish bonds reached 7.57% today, a new high.

Lets Get Real:

Folks if this blog had the money it would bet against Spain, it has the debt from the banks, its has the debts from the regional government, its has the tough and harsh austerity package of the central Government. In other words Spain is going down, it will join the PIGS in getting a bailout, the next to fall will be Italy. The Market is making it clear that the Spanish Government is not realistic when it comes to the economic future of Spain, they are in denial about the TRUTH, Spain is in the toilet, the expected Greek exit after August could be the final push for Spain and Italy to take a bailout, it has to be done soon or they could take the Euro down, even the EU could come under threat. This blog expects a bad week on the Markets folks, Spain has a economic target on its head, someone somewhere will be making money at the expense of Spain, that is the real world folks.

Syrian Threat - Syrian Crisis

Guardian: Reports the Assad Regime has threatened to use WMD's against a foreign attack on Syria.

Lets Get Real:

This threat can be discounted folks, any use of WMD's on NATO forces would lead to a nuclear reaction by the West, the pray of the Obama Administration is that Assad does not use WMD's on his own people, any such move would force Israel to act, as this would mean that Syria could give WMD's to terrorists groups in the region. One has to wonder why the Assad Regime has made this statement, is it a warning to the West that any action to prevent Assad killing his own people would allow Assad to use chemical or biological weapons, is Assad NUTS, its a serious question folks. As Syria falls apart and there are more defections from the Syrian Army the security of these WMD's will be a top concern of the Oval and Israel, thus Israel now has to worry about the WMD's of Syria but also Iran going nuclear. It can be argued folks that Israel has never been so close to destruction in its modern history, only takes chemical weapon to hit Israel to cause massive damage or for Iran to go nuclear and to launch a missile at Israel. Lets hope Israel has it eyes and ears open for any chatter, to connect the dots before its to late, the clock of the Middle East is in a danger zone folks.

Greece and the Bond Market

Telegraph Live - Euro: Reports the following on Greece in its 11.50am post, " ..not receive its next bail-out tranche until September at the earliest.....bonds totalling €3.1bn will mature on August 20....The delay means Athens could be forced to raise money on the debt markets to repay them - at a very high cost. ".

Lets Get Real:

In other words folks the Greek people are being hung out to dry, they have voted for austerity and Germany has had enough, it can be postulated that the Troika will state that Greece has failed to meet its agreements with the Euro when it comes to austerity, thus Greece is in breach, the Germans will be happy, they want Greece out of the Euro. The recent Greek election is in way went the wrong way for Germany, a pro austerity Government was formed but it has not meed the the benchmarks of the EU deal. The Greeks are a open wound, they just want more and more money, and the the German taxpayer has to worry about about Spain and Italy. Thus Greece is a goner folks, its a dead man walking, its just the Athens Government does not know its extinct.

Spanish Woes and the Markets

BBC News: Reports that Spanish Bonds have passed the 7.5% mark today, this has depressed Markets in the US and Europe, leading to the concern that Spain might need a Sovereign Bailout.

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks we have the Trinity problem with Spain, on one side we have the debts of the banks, the EU has agreed to bailout the banks, then we the debts of the regional Governments of Spain, this has been estimated at a 140 billion, at the end of the day due to the banks and the regional Governments the national Government of Spain might need a bailout. As noted in this blog there have been riots in Spain due to the austerity package of the new Conservative Government, it could get a lot worse folks if the Spain has to ask for Sovereign bailout, then the EU/IMF/ECB would have to place budget inspectors in each Spanish Ministry, they would have to have a VETO on any spending, the austerity measures would have to be even more brutal, as a Sovereign bailout of Spain would have to be harsh to prevent Italy going down the toilet. A joint bailout for Spain and Italy would break the Euro. Also the Germans have made it clear if Greece has not totally met its commitments over its austerity deal then there will be no more money, looks like Greece is a dead dodo that does not know its cooked. The good news folks its only Monday.

Blair and the Economy

Guardian: Reports the following on the Blair interview, " accepted some responsibility for the state of Britain's economy...".

Lets Get Real:

The Conservatives in the Coalition Government should keep this statement in the draw for 2015, not over use it NOW, this is an excellent statement to run in a political advert or in paper adverts. The new Labour regime must be hopping that the Iraq Inquiry does not cause further problems for Blair and the Labour Party. It can be argued up to a point that Blair is a bit of lose cannon, he wants back in to UK politics, the problem is that the Labour Party on the whole doe not want him back, the UK electorate might be more forgiving but only up to a point, if Iraq report is bad and this admission could shut Blair out of UK politics. Being honest might be good for the soul but its not politics.

Economic Collapse Labour's Fault - Blair

Telegraph: Reports that former Labour PM Tony Blair has stated in an interview that the Labour Party has some responsibility for the present economic woes faced by the UK.

Lets Get Real:

This will not go down well with the present Labour Leader Ed Miliband, as at the time he worked for the then Chancellor, Gordon Brown. The Brown Camp will see this another attack on their man, the endless feud between the two. While the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats will love the comment, at least to be fair to Mr Blair he put his hand up to mistakes, this blog is still waiting to hear the Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls state that he has any flaws to explain for the period. The Labour Party to this day has not said SORRY for its failures under Blair and Brown, they will only win in 2015 when they accept that they failed with the economy, thus the present economic recession faced by the UK, the Labour Party spent when there was no more money in the bank, but this is not new, when the waters get tough the Labour Party are nowhere to be found, thus the National Government of the 1930s.

Syrian Update - Syrian Crisis

BBC News: Reports on ongoing fighting in the Syrian Cities Damascus and Aleppo.

Lets Get Real:

The Assad Regime has an effective Army, supplied with the latest military equipment from Russian and Iran, they Regimes knows and its followers know they are not just fighting to keep power, this is about not being hung from the nearest yard arm if they lose, thus they are not going to give up without a fight. Also what ever Russia says it will arm the Assad Regime, it has nothing to lose, if the Assad Regime falls it loses its only warm water port, the rebels if they win are not going to be impressed that Russia at the UN blocked any tough resolutions on Syria. The Tehran Regime needs the Assad Regime in place, it allows it to link to its terrorist groups in Lebanon. If Assad falls the Tehran Regime will see itself under threat, thus Tehran has nothing to lose, also if the World is divert by Syria then Iran can develop the bomb. Thus folks this could be a long and bloody civil war, in less the rebels have another ace under their hats.

Obama's Chicago Attacks - Obama Advert

Lets Get Real:

This is a typical Chicago attack advert folks, none of the allegations are illegal, its like if President Obama is asking Romney if he has ever been a communist, and he has to prove that he has not done anything illegal. This is the gutter politics of Chicago, the US voter in 2008 voted for hope and change, and what are they getting, an advert that Richard Nixon would have been proud off, its that low folks, it shows that President Obama can not defend his own record, if the election is about Obama he will lose, thus these allegations, SHAME ON YOU MR PRESIDENT.

Making IT in the US - Romney Advert

Lets Get Real:

This is a great advert, allows a REAL businessman to challenge President Obama as to who builds a business, also it should go down well with blue collar old Reagan Democrats in the swing States. This is the 2nd political gaffe by President Obama, he needs to rest up more, and think about his statements, as noted in my twitter feed, he could be making mistakes that he would not have done in 2008 due to the total campaign mode he is in, need for rest and more strategic thinking from the Oval.

Obama in OWN WORDS - Romney Advert

Lets Get Real:

This is a great advert folks, as it shows what POTUS really thinks about business, in view of President Obama it is the STATE that is the most important fact in the development of business, not those that spend hours thinking about creating a business, then working all God's hours to make it successful, then having to deal with the up and downs of being in business. Let President Obama undo himself, there is a God and he is a Republican.

Syrian Refugees - Syrian Crisis

BBC News: Reports that the violence in Syria has seen thousands of Syrians flee, the article notes that thirty thousand Syrians have left Syria for Lebanon in the past 48 hours.

Lets Get Real:

As the violence increase folks expect the regional countries to find that they have problems with the dealing with the numbers, thus expect demands that the UN come up with a united solution, the Assad Regime must think as long as it is supported by Russian, China and Iran it will not have to leave power. In the case of Russia it needs its warm water Port and its close relationship with the Assad Regime to keep it a power within the region, then Iran needs Assad as it allow Tehran to have influence in Lebanon, and also poke Israel through Syria and Lebanon. This major Civil War could last for months folks, but not years, also as stated if Assad is foolish to use WMD's that would be game changer, is Assad that foolish folks, this blog has its doubts.

Syrian Update - Syrian Crisis

Telegraph: Reports the following from Syria, " Syria's intelligence chief Hisham Bekhtyar had died on Friday morning of wounds " sustained in the recent bombing of the national security team of President Assad.

Lets Get Real:

It seems from the article that the Syrian Army might have pushed the rebels out of sections of Damascus, but the question that has to be asked is how long the national security structure of the Assad can last. It can be postulated that those still loyal to the Assad Regime will be asking themselves what happens to them should Assad fall, they do not want to be on the wrong side of history. The news out of Damascus is confusing, it is hard to say who has the upper hand at this moment, the big question that has to be asked is will the Assad Regime use chemical weapons on its own people, thus far the West has kept out, but the use of WMD would be a major game changer, it could be close call by Assad, it could keep him in power or rush to his exit one way or another, the next few hours and days will be interesting folks.

Obama vs. Romney - The Polls

Rasmussen Reports ( LV ): Reports on its daily tracking poll of the match up between POTUS and Governor Romney, today President Obama leads Governor Romney by 47% to 46%, a 1% lead.

Gallup ( RV ): Reports on its daily tracking poll of the match up between POTUS and Governor Romney, today they are tied at 46%.

Bonus Poll

CBS News/NYT ( RV ): This poll in essence shows a tie, with Governor Romney on 47%. while President Obama is on 46%.

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks after a few weeks of real dirty pool by both sides we have a tie, neither the Obama Campaign or the Romney Camp should be jumping for joy, on return for investment the Obama Camp would fail, they have spent millions on negative adverts and they are keeping steady, they are not losing, while Romney has not used the political problems of Obama to define Obama as a tax and spend liberal. Lets see who Romney picks for his VP, lets hope its an attack dog, the Republicans needs a attack dog to go after the Democrats.

Obama vs. Republicans - Syrian Crisis

The Hill: Reports that Republican Senators have been critical of the Obama policy in Syria, they want the President Obama to arm the rebels " or take other unilateral measures to stop the bloodshed and replace Assad. ".

Lets Get Real:

The Syrian Crisis if it goes on for months, with constant deaths on the nightly news could be a problem for President Obama, the Republicans want to define Obama as weak, his restart button with Russia has been a disaster, he sold out Poland and the Czech Republic for nothing, the Russian bear sees Obama as weak, a leader who thinks his rhetoric is reality, in other words a push over, the Russians and US voters do not respect high minded weakness, they respect a strong leader, thus in 1980 Reagan was seen as a strong leader, while President Carter was seen as weak after the Iran hostage crisis blew up in addition to the Russian invasion of Afghanistan. The Oval should keep very close eye on Syria, its implications might not just be regional, it might change the President in the US in 2013.

US and Syria

Guardian Live - Syria: Reports the following in its 6.26pm post on Syria, " The White House says it does not support extending the UN observer mission in Syria, criticising Russia and China's vetos..".

Lets Get Real:

The Arab Spring could be a problem for the Oval, it has been seen a slow to respond, the rot started with the elections in Iran when the Tehran Regime shot its own people and Obama in essence did not say a word, the people of Tehran were on the Streets looking for Western help and Obama thought his rhetoric was more important than the people. Then in Egypt the Oval was seen as slow to support those that wanted to get rid of the old Mubarak Regime, in Libya the NATO mission was lead by the the UK and France, while the Oval stated it was leading from behind, great campaign slogan. Thus we come to Syria, how many nights of Syrian deaths will it take the Oval to act, one can postulate that the Oval is waiting for the US election, it might not have that much time, if Assad uses chemical weapons then the Oval will have to act, and from the front this time.

Is Assad about to Flee ? - Syrian Crisis

Telegraph: Reports the following from Syria, " Opposition sources and a Western diplomat stated Mr Assad was in the coastal city of Latakia...".

Lets Get Real:

The move to Latakia from Damascus allows Assad to get out of a battle zone but also allows for a quick getaway from Syria should Damascus falls to the Syrian rebels. Also lets not discount the chance that it would allow Assad to use chemical weapons on the rebels in Damascus, this would be the last throw of the dice, one has doubts that even the Russians would still be able to to support Assad should he use WMD on his own people. If the Centre can or will not hold then the Regime is finished, one can postulate that the rebels will try to take the TV and Radio stations, if they can take these they would have a powerful weapon, but its a long shot folks, the Syrian defence forces are very good, this bloody civil war could last months, or it could end in a flash. The major problem folks as stated in this blog is the fact that the Syrian conflict is a proxy war between the US and its allies on one side, the CIA is supporting the rebels via Turkey, and the Russians and Iran supporting the Assad Regime, if Assad falls then Putin is out of the Middle East, and Tehran losses a close ally, if Assad gets away with the killing of this own people then Obama is seen as weak, Turkey is seen as being weak for not reacting, and the CIA has another failure. Thus folks the powers have a lot to lose, this Syrian Civil War is gong to get bloody before there is any peace.

Syrian Civil War - Syrian Crisis

BBC News: Reports that the UK, US and France have stated that the UN has failed in Syria.

Lets Get Real:

This is rather harsh on the UN folks, the UN was and will always be a talking shop, in the Cold War it didn't do a dam thing, it did not bring the sides together or help with the end of the Cold War. It is the modern version of the League of Nations, good intentions but can not deal with the REAL WORLD. The Russian Bear does not want to lose its warm water Port, the Tehran Regime sees the Assad Regime as its proxy War with the West, its a great diversion from the growing Iran crisis. Thus folks the Assad Regime will stay as long as it is backed by Putin's Russia and China, thus many more people will die, and the UN will look feckless and out of date, the only way for there to be a game changer is if the Assad Regime was to use chemical weapons, the West would have no choice but to take action, even Russia could not prevent NATO action, lets hope the Assad Regime is not that stupid folks.

Obama's Crony Politics in D.C

Guardian: Reports that Governor Mitt Romney's Campaign has accused President Obama of " giving favours to donors ".

Lets Get Real:

It is about time that the Romney Campaign got in to the dirt, the Chicago connection is a major weakness for President Obama, is the birthplace of his political career. The politics of Chicago are dirty, without doubt its one of the most corrupt States in the Union, this blog has lost count of the number of State Governors have been sent to the Big House for breaking the law. The Romney Camp have to, or its Super Pacs have to stress the Obama connections in Chicago, from his racist pastor to his urban terrorists friends. How Obama needed these two sections to give him a political green card, as Hawaii is hardly the deep South. The Chicago Re-Elect Committee has been playing mean and dirty, about time to hit them hard, Chicago stinks lets be honest, even the nickname the Windy City does not help, if the Republicans can connect Obama to the dirty politics of Chicago they might have found his major weakness, a racist pastor and urban terrorists are friends, if the elite media wont recall this the Republicans should remind the voters.

Obama's Cronies - Romney Advert

Lets Get Real:

This is a good hard hitting advert, how the Chicago way works in the Obama White House, in easy terms Crony networking with the taxpayers money. The Romney Campaign needs more hart hitting adverts, the Romney Camp have to be Obama's face, its the only way, its the Chicago way.

Persian Gulf Tensions - Iran Crisis

BBC News: Reports that the US Navy had to shoot at a mystery ship in the Persian Gulf after it refused warnings while approaching a US Ship.

Lets Get Real:

Thus far not a lot of information folks, there are reports of death and injuries on the mystery boat but not the reason it took on a US Ship. Thus far one can postulate that it might be Iran trying to see how far it can push a US Ship before it takes action, on other hand there might be an innocent reason for this close encounter with a US Vessel, lets see what comes out over the next few hours folks. It is this kind of incident that can lead to hair trigger reactions, as when the US shot down a civilian air plane in the 1980s. This is why the Iran crisis is dangerous folks, a local incident could lead to War.

Obama on Romney and Bain - Obama Attack Advert

Lets Get Real:

This is another vicious attack on Governor Romney by the Obama Campaign, the most interesting thing about the advert is that IF all the charges against Romney in the advert were true they would not be illegal, this is a class warfare advert at its worse. It something the editorial writers for liberal NYT and Guardian dream about. The Romney Campaign has to stop playing fair, it has to get in the TRENCHES, it has to fight fire with fire, otherwise Obama wins. Does Romney want to WIN?

Obama's Plan to Scare Voters - Romney Advert

Lets Get Real:

This advert uses President Obama's words against him, very effective, it shows how Obama can not run on his record, thus his constant attacks on Romney's business record. But lets GET REAL HERE, the Romney Campaign has to wake up, it has to hit POTUS hard with negative adverts, it has to show how he has failed on the domestic front, over 8% unemployment, how people are forced to take part time jobs even when they want full time jobs. How Obama's spending has not helped, how African - Americans have suffered under the Obama Administration. The Romney Campaign has to allow the Republican Super Pacs to go after Obama, really hard, his drug taking when young, his Chicago connections, there are a lot of skeletons in the Obama cupboard, time to hit hard and often, its the Chicago way.

Obama 08 vs. Obama 12 - Romney Advert

Lets Get Real:

This is a good advert, it lets the elite media have a go at President Obama. But its not hard enough, the elite media did not vet Obama in 08, they had more interest him in winning that vetting his record. The Romney Campaign has to VET Obama again, either the Romney Campaign or a Republican Super Pac, allow them to go through his personal history, recall voters aspects of the Obama record that the elite media did not want to cover, his racist Pastor being one, his friends the urban terrorists, how Obama needed his political green card from these two sections to get a start in Chicago politics. If the Chicago Re-Elect Committee wants to play dirty lets show them how the game is played, the last man standing wins, that simple folks, very Irish, very Chicago.

The BAIN of Romney - US 2012 Race

BBC News: Reports that Governor Mitt Romney the Republican Nominee for President has called on President Obama to apologise for his attacks on the Romney business record.

Lets Get Real:

This is political BS folks, also its bad politics, the Obama Campaign should have used the business record of Governor Romney against him in October. In less there is a something in the Obama charges then there is no there there, it will start to look like Chicago political hard ball. It is July folks, people are holiday or planning their breaks, these charges are about events that happened nearly 13 years ago, and so far the Obama Camp has not said what Romney has done that is illegal. The US voter wants to know what the Candidates are offering for the next four years, not the past, thus both candidates need a clear vision for the future, Obama wont win re-election if all he has is negative questions about Romney, he needs to produce a plan for the next four years, while Romney has to produce a plan that is different from Obama, lot more attacks to go folks.

Why NOT Condi for VP - 2012 Race

CNN - Politics: Reports on the negative reaction by Conservative Republicans to the idea that former Secretary of State Condi Rice is at the top of the Romney list to be his VP. It is two words folks, abortion, Rice is pro choice, and Bush 43, she is seen as close to the centre of the Bush years.

Lets Get Real:

As to the abortion issue Rice could say that she has change her mind, lets recall that Ronald Reagan was a liberal Democrats for years, as to the Bush years she could state the success at the end of Bush in Iraq, also the Bush tax cuts, she would have to distance herself from the Bush bailout of the banks, that is a BIG NO to tea party supporters. The great point about Secretary Rice is that she is clever enough to stress the plus points, while being diplomatic enough to change her positions to fit the Romney ticket. Lets see if Romney is that BOLD, it would be a game changer, but lets see folks, it could be a story leaked to change the news cycle, get the press off the Obama attack on Romney's business record, lets see folks, fun time in politics.

Rice for VP? - 2012 Race

Drudge Report: Has an exclusive, former Secretary of State Condi Rice is top of the Romney list to be VP.

Lets Get Real:

It would be a game changer folks, but a good game changer, Secretary Rice is seen as close to Bush 43, she was his first National Security Advisor, then Secretary of State, her role in War on Terror, then Afghanistan and Iraq would be a open target to Democrats. Then we have policy battles between Rice and VP Cheney, in this case Cheney in his memoir has stated that the State Department let down the President when it came to North Korea. The Democrats would not be able to question her ability, but they would question her judgement, on the other hand it would get the press off the past business dealings of Governor Romney for a time. This blog has doubts about this story, it is to early for Rice after the Bush years, it could be argued that she should run for the Presidency herself in 2016. On other hand it would be a bold move, VERY BOLD. Does Romney have the guts to be that bold.

Iran and the Bomb - Iran Crisis

Telegraph: Reports on a claim by MI6 that it prevented Iran getting the bomb by 2008, but that Iran would be a nuclear armed power by 2014. The article notes the following, " making a military strike from the US and Israel increasingly likely. "

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks it can be postulated that we are heading in to the end game with the Iran crisis, the US has two naval carriers in the Persian Gulf, also vessels are being sent, one would not be surprised to see Israel hit Iran in mid October. If Israel thinks POTUS is going to win re-election they might think its in the interest of Israel to hit Tehran when POTUS has no choice but to support its ally. After an election POTUS might think he had a free hand to place sanctions on Israel. These would not happen as Democrats and Republicans in Congress would over turn any sanctions, but Israel might think why take the risk. Thus look for October to be a window for action folks. The West can not afford for Iran to be a nuclear armed power, this would force the other Middle East countries to go nuclear, that would make the Cold War look like happy hour folks.

Obama vs. Romney - The Friday Match Up Polls

Rasmussen Reports: Reports on its daily tracking poll on the match up between President Obama and Governor Mitt Romney, on this Friday President Obama leads Governor Romney by 46% to 45%, a 1%.

Gallup: Reports on its daily tracking poll on the match up between President Obama and Governor Mitt Romney, on this Friday it finds a tie at 46%.

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks we have a tied a tied election; as these polls have likely voters as with the case with Rasmussen and Registered voters with Gallup; neither Obama or Romney have managed to keep a stable lead, thus its a open race. In pure PR terms POTUS has had a good few days, he has kept the conversation on the business record of Romney, thus charges have been throw about, that Obama is a liar, while Romney has been called a felon. It is only July folks, not the end of October. The voters want to know what the candidates are going to do over the next four years. Thus Romney needs to define the future better, while Obama needs something, he cant spend the next few months just talking about the Romney past record. That might work with the base but it does not work with Independents and Conservative Democrats. Thus both candidates have a lot more to do define their Campaigns and to define the other Party. The Campaign has gotten dirty early folks, YES that is what Democracy is about folks, thus the fun starts.

Obama = Liar

Lets Get Real:

The Romney Campaign has to hit back even harder, this is a good 1st attempt to counter attack the Obama Campaign, but its not enough, the Romney Campaign has to get in to the dirt with the Chicago Re-Elect otherwise they will lose, that simple and brutal folks. The Romney Campaign has to take the attack to Obama, in his face, his personal and administration failures. Its the only way to win folks.

Missing the Target - The Romney Record

Guardian Live - US Politics: Reports the following on the Obama attack on Romney's business record in its 2.44pm post it states, " Has the Obama campaign over-reached on this? Unless there's more to it, it would appear it has. ".

Lets Get Real:

The low level vicious attack on Romney is based on the fact that POTUS can not run on his domestic record, ObamaCare is hated and has been defined by the US Supreme Court as a tax, the billions spent by Obama in the first two years of his Presidency did not get the economy moving, he has nothing to say about the future, so he has to get the election as a vote on Mitt Romney. This is why the Republicans have to hit back hard, not just take it, that would be 1996 all over again. The extreme liberal media did not vet Obama in 2008, he was given a pass because he was the first African - American with a real chance of winning the Oval, well if the media wont do its job its time for the Republicans to recall the REAL Obama record, the personal, his racist pastor, his domestic terrorist friends, his drug taking, its all there folks, just the media is so up Obama's backside they think it smells likes roses, he is a Chicago Pol, nothing more or less, time to hit back hard, on his personal failing and his failure as President. It is the Chicago way folks.

Obama is liar - Romney Attack

Telegraph: Reports the following on the US Presidential Campaign, " Mitt Romney branded Barack Obama a "liar" ".

Lets Get Real:

It is about time that the Romney Campaign got in Obama's face, the right is going to be called racist by the left wing media what ever they do, so its time to take the gloves off, call POTUS on his lies when it comes to Romney's business record. At the same time call Obama OUT when it comes to ObamaCare, the President stated it was not a tax but his lawyers stated to the US Supreme Court that ObamaCare should be considered a TAX. Also the President stated that his spending would keep US unemployment under 8%, another lie. POTUS is a Chicago pol, they do not even know what the truth is, its anything they use to win. Lets take the fight to the Oval.

Riots in Spain - Eurozone Crisis

Guardian Live - Spain: Reports the following on the riots in Spain in reaction to the austerity package of the new Conservative Government, its 3.24pm post states the following, " Spanish police fired rubber bullets during the protests in Madrid....may have been prompted by some protesters throwing objects.. ".

Lets Get Real:

The blog has no problem with peaceful protests, that is democracy, but when protesters become violent then the Police have to come down hard, read the riot act then go in hard, this kind of violence being directed on the Police is a disgrace, the Police are keeping law and order, if people want to break the civic peace they should expect a tough reaction, jail time, if they have a job they should be sacked. These are harsh times, there are many people seeking work, if those that have a job want to demonstrate then they should get the sack and be replaced. Reagan fired the air traffic controllers in the 1980s when they went on strike, that is a good example that European Governments should follow with those that demonstrate and turn violet against the Police and the civic peace.

Russia BACKS ally Syria - Syrian Crisis

Telegraph: Reports that Russia will follow through with its military deal with its Cold War ally Syria. Thus the Assad Regime will get its ordered air defence system. Although no new contracts are being signed.

Lets Get Real:

This is a slap in the face to the Obama Administration, the Russians are making clear that they consider the restart button of the Obama Administration a joke. If you combine this deal with the Russians sending a naval vessels and marines to its Syrian Naval base this is a slap in the face to the Oval. It is clear that President Putin has deep contempt for President Obama, sees him as weak and easy to push around, at the end of the day Putin is KGB down to shoes, his greatest regret is the downfall of the USSR. The US voter has to ask, is Obama another Reagan or Carter, would Obama call the USSR an Evil Empire, would he call on Gorbachev to tear down the Berlin Wall, would the Cold War still be on if Obama had been President in the 1980s. The answer US voter should decide your vote in November.

Spanish CUTS and TAX HIKES - Eurozone Crisis

BBC News: Reports that the Conservative Government in Spain has risen VAT from 18% to 21 and local authorities will see a cut of 3.5 billion euros in their budgets.

Lets Get Real:

This is part of the cost of Spain getting a bailout folks, the EU does not want to see Spain calling for a Sovereign Bailout, there are doubts that EU could afford to bailout Spain and Italy. At the end of the day left wing Governments spend and it takes a Conservative Governments as in the UK to clean up the mess, in the 1930s the Labour Party in the UK ran away from Government, it would not make cuts, thus the National Government of the 1930s. The left never wants to make cuts, it always wants to spend and raise taxes, a case in point is President Obama, who wants a major tax hike on the rich, even knowing this is a mistake, as the President stated early in his term, if you tax the rich at 100% why would they bother taking risks, its from these risks that jobs are created, as Obama has never created a job in his life one can see why he does not understand the US business sector. The left at the end of the day is bankrupt folks, it is more interested in ideological purity before reality, that is why there will always be Conservatives, they have to clean up the mess of the left.

Obama/Romney TIED at 47% - New Poll

Guardian Live - US Politics: Reports on the latest poll on the US Presidential race, in a ABC News/Washington Post poll both President Obama and Governor Romney are on 47%.

Lets Get Real:

Yes my usual warning, its July, it is still early, what is quite shock is that President Obama is tied with his Republican opponent, if you think about the dreadful economy and how unpopular ObamaCare is one has to say that the Chicago Re-Elect Committee is doing its job. The attack on the private sector record of Governor Romney has been very effective in the swing states, as noted yesterday Obama holds a 2% lead in these battleground states. Obama even leads in Ohio, without Ohio Romney can not win the Presidency. The question that has to be asked is why Romney is not doing better, the US unemployment rate is at 8.2%, ObamaCare has been defined at a TAX by the US Supreme Court, the US is trillions in debt, the enemies of the US do not take Obama as a real threat, the Russians seen him a pushover in the Middle East. And thus Romney can only tie, are we seeing a Camping that could win the nomination but can not win the Presidency.

Russian Bear has CLAWS - Syrian Crisis

Telegraph: Reports that Russia is sending the following to its naval base in Syria, " Two destroyers and three amphibious landing vessels carrying marines..".

Lets Get Real:

This is the Russian bear showing its claws folks, it is showing support for the Assad Regime, thus the US soon will have to make a choice, does it just allow the Assad to go on killing its own people with the backing of Iran, Russia or does it take action, or is Syria another Bosnia, do thousands have to die before the Oval does something, the restart with Russia has failed, Moscow thinks Obama is weak, and in this case Putin is right, after dumping a missile deal with Poland the Czech Republic because of Russian concerns what has Obama gotten back from Moscow, in essence it has been told by this move that Russia is going to back its Cold War ally and that Russia has the back of the Syrian Regime at the UN. The Russia bear understands a tough Washington D.C, with Obama they see a President who thinks his own rhetoric is real, and a President who is willing to throw is allies under the bus because he is afraid to deal with the left of his Party. The end result folks is that thousands of Syrians will die due to a weak US President and a Russian bear with sharp claws.

House of Lords Defeat - Coalition Government

BBC News: Reports that the Coalition Government has dropped its Parliamentary timetable Vote for House of Lords reform due to opposition from Conservative backbenchers and the Labour Party.

Lets Get Real:

The Coalition Government is not dropping the idea, it is just allowing the political stream to ebb away, the Conservative leadership needs to get its troops back in line, thus pressure of the Summer recess, also the idea to shame the Labour Party in to supporting the Government, the present opposition is based on short term political strategy. Lets see what happens after Parliament reforms, the Conservative rebels should be on guard, this reform of the House of Lords can not be allowed to pass, it would wreck the UK Constitution, okay it is not written, but that is not the point, even unwritten documents need protection.

ObamaCare and Abortion

Lets Get Real:

This is how low the Obama Camp will go folks, it wants to frighten women that Romney that moderate from the North will bring back backstreet abortions, this is dirty pool at its worse. The Romney Camp has to hit the Oval hard on its failure in the personal but also in the public sector. ObamaCare is a TAX hike, the billions spent by Obama have failed to get people back to work, the last time this blog looked that is mostly women. This blog has seen low adverts before but this takes the cake, has the Oval NO SHAME, of course not he dumps his allies and bows to the enemies of the US. The Republicans have to take the fight to the Oval, it has to nuke them really, make the Obama Camp really regret going down this negative path.

Obama Attacks Romney on Business record - TV Advert

Lets Get Real:

This attack advert on Romney's previous business record seems to be working in some of the swing states, such as Ohio, the Romney Campaign has to hit back hard, the Oval should be the last person to talk about the past. The Republicans have to get dirty, there are enough skeletons in the Obama past, his drug taking, his urban terrorists friends, going to a racist church for years. If the Republicans want to win they have to take the fight to the Oval, otherwise Obama wins by default, he is willing to play dirty.

Battleground States - Obama LEADS

The Hill: Reports the following from a USA Today/ Gallup poll of Battleground States, in the Poll President Obama leads Governor Romney by 47% to 45%, a 2% lead.

Lets Get Real:

The margin of error in the poll is 4%, thus in fact either Obama or Romney could have the real lead. That is not the problem, its the impression it gives, even with a major recession, and spending trillions Obama is still ahead in the battleground States. It is time for the Romney Camp to take the gloves off or get a VP who does not mind fighting dirty and getting hated by the elite media. There are so many weak spots for Obama that the Republicans should be well ahead by NOW, if the Republicans want to win this time to get in to the trenches and go over and under, and WIN.

The Money Stakes - Presidential Race 2012

The New York Times: Reports that the Romney Campaign and the Republican National Committee far out raised POTUS and the Democrats in June, the article notes that the Republicans raised 106.1 million while the Democrats pocketed 71 million.

Lets Get Real:

While the Romney Campaign has been getting the money in the Obama Camp has been getting good poll numbers, the Republicans have to get one FACT, the elite media will do what it takes to get Obama re-elected. Thus the Republicans are not just fighting the Democrats and their Super Pacs they also fighting the elite media, they will not run a negative story on Obama, it is that simple and brutal folks. The Romney Campaign can not afford to allow the Obama Camp to define Romney as a out of touch rich guy, if the polls are right, and this blog has doubts then the rich guy out of touch tag line is working. The Romney Camp needs a attack dog as a VP, someone who will really go after President Obama, someone that the elite media hate, that will go down well with Republicans. The VP has to define Obama as a tax and spend liberal in the mode of former Carter VP Walter Mondale. If the Republicans have the money its time to spend, define Obama before he defines Romney.

Tax Hiker Obama - 2012 Race

Guardian Live - 2012 Race: Reports in its 11.50am post that President Obama is calling for an extension of the Bush 43 tax cuts for those, " making less than $250,000. " but a tax hike for those above this limit.

Lets Get Real:

POTUS is pandering again, the liberal NYT and Guardian types will love the idea to tax, the problem with this its easy to say if you do not have to run in conservative States, one can see Democrats from the Senate and House not going with this policy, it has been argued that to raise taxes in a recession does not help the economy. As the live blog notes this idea is not going anywhere before the election, thus another pandering move by Obama. Those on the left can argue that his polls are good after going the the private sector business record of Mitt Romney, it should be noted this is July, one can be sure that the Republicans will use this tax hike in their negative adverts, short term move that that could cost in the long term folks, President Obama is a tax and spend liberal in the worse way.

House of Lords Reform - Coalition Government

Telegraph: Reports that Liberal Democrat Leader and DPM Nick Clegg got a hostile reaction from Conservatives to his plan for House of Lords reform, the article notes the following on the Conservative reaction to Clegg, " was openly barracked by Tory MPs ".

Lets Get Real:

Thank goodness for the common sense of the Conservatives MPs, the House of Lords does not need reform, the Upper House does it job well, to revise laws passed by the House of Commons. One you elect the Upper House they have as much moral right as MPs to decide laws, the idea that they would be submissive is fantasy lands, once a second house is either totally elected or a majority is then they can argue they have the same standing as the House of Commons. Thus do not fix something that is not broken, the Liberal Democrats when they gain a majority in the House of Commons can push any reform they like, but in till then SHUT UP. Harsh but tough language folks, the Liberal Democrats have had it easy for to long, they are in Government now not the usual pressure group focus, the sole issue for the Coalition should be the economy.

Spanish and Italian Bonds - Danger Zone

BBC News: Reports that the cost of Spain and Italy in selling their bonds have gone in to a danger zone, with Spanish bonds at over 7%, while Italian bonds reached 6.1%.

Lets Get Real:

Here we are again folks, the last EU Summit was suppose to have dealt with this issue, the EU bailout fund was meant to ease the cost of Spain and Italy in selling their bonds, but then plucky Finland and Holland said NO, Finland even stated it would leave the EU if it had to take on on the debt of others. Thus the bailout idea when it comes to bonds is on hold, thus another Summit, lets see what they come up with, will it make any difference long term, NO, but the EU is good at throwing these issues in to the long grass and hoping something comes around the corner to save the day, it wont this time, poor EU.

Obama's FAILED words - Pro Romney Advert

Lets Get Real:

This is a great advert that takes the lack of jobs being created by the Obama Administration back to President Obama. The advert uses Obama's OWN words against him to show that he blames everyone else for the problems facing the US. A typical tax and spend liberal. The Advert is good and keeps to the point, the failure of the Obama economic record, but the Republicans have to understand that the Oval is going to fight dirty, real DIRTY, so lets hit the Oval for its past connections, how Obama has NEVER worked the private sector. How the Oval has never created a job, 1 JOB. Lets hit hard and often folks, lets now allow the Oval to sleep, lets have the Oval on the phone 24/7 raising money, its about the money folks, who can raise it and spend it, more negative adverts, more harsh adverts, its the Chicago way.

Romney's Offshore Bank Accounts - Obama Advert

Lets Get Real:

This is a great negative advert, it goes after Romney's offshore accounts, thus the picture of Romney not connecting with main street. The Romney Campaign have to understand that the Obama Campaign has no shame, it will get in the dirt to win, Obama with his past connections should the be the last person to bring up the past, but then the elite media will state that any attack on Obama's past connections is racist, well the Republicans should tell them to take a flying you know what, if the Obama Campaign wants to play dirty, well lets have the Republicans bring up Obama's domestic terrorists friends, his admitted drug taking when young, his connections with a racist preacher. The Democrats have no SHAME, well if they want to play dirty lets get in the mud, lets show the Democrats that the elite media wont be able to protect the the Chicago Re-Elect Committee from the truth about their own candidate.

Obama vs. Romney - Friday Polls

Rasmussen Reports ( LV ): Reports on its daily tracking poll of the match up between President Obama and Governor Romney, today Governor Romney leads President Obama by 47% to 44%, a 3% lead.

Gallup ( RV ): Reports on its daily tracking poll of the match up between President Obama and Governor Romney, today President Obama leads Governor Romney by 48% to 44%, a 4% lead.

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks we have different leads depending if you go with likely or registered voters, this blog on the whole goes with likely voters, not just because it shows a Republican lead, but due to the fact that other polls of Adults or Registered voters has voters who will never go out and vote but answer the phone. Thus to fair, and objective it can be argued we have a neck and neck race, the candidates are tied, as we get closer to the election day after the Conventions this blog will start to look at the swing states, how the candidates are doing, also the inside race what the political experts see the race going, lets be clear if this blog sees POTUS winning it will say so, and it will not take months to state that, but then again its JULY folks, few more polls to go. One can argue if one looks at some of the State polls that the Chicago Committee has been successful is making out that Governor Romney does not understand Middle America, on the other hand the Republicans have really started spending yet, lets see the Obama polls after the Republicans spend their billions on negative adverts, it is early folks.