South Carolina Polls - Republican Race

RCP: Has the Average of the polls from South Carolina, today they are the following, Governor Romney 26.7%, Speaker Gingrich 22%, Paul and Santorum are both on 14.7%. Thus its down to South Carolina for Conservatives to defeat Governor Romney, the lead of 4.7% matches the ARG Poll. The negative adverts by the Gingrich Super Pac seem to be working, they seem to have prevented Romney getting much of a bounce from NH. The Republican Elders must be worried that the attacks on the Romney business record will be used by the Obama re-elect committee, what the attacks will do will force Romney to create a defence against his Republican opponents, but also use that defence against President Obama. This could be a very interesting race folks, one still has to say that Romney is the presumptive Republican Nominee.

South Carolina Poll - Republican Race

CNN - Politics: Reports a new poll from American Research Group, in this poll Governor Romney leads Speaker Gingrich by 29% to 25%, the poll has a 4% margin of error. Thus a close race folks, if Romney can win this Southern State the Republican race is over, if Gingrich wins and Romney comes a close 2nd then we have a longer race. To get in the weeds here folks, its not winner takes all, the % of delegates goes by vote share. Lets recall that in 1976 Reagan lost 5* Primaries but would not get out of the race, at the end President Ford only won by a very narrow margin. It will take something big for Romney not to be the nominee, if Gingrich can take SC and win other States the race will go down to the Convention. There has been the theory that the race could go to the Republican Convention, that in the present day look far out there folks, but nothing over till its over folks.

*Double checked folks on the 1976 Republican Race, Reagan lost the first 5 Primaries to President Ford, not 9 as stated in post. This blog picked up that first impression from one of the US networks. This blog does not change its content in less factually wrong.

Iran vs. Amir Hekmati

The Hill: Reports on the case of Amir Hekmati, an ex US Marine, sentenced to death for being a spy for the CIA, the article states the following, “ Military analysts say Iran is using Hekmati as a bargaining chip against the U.S. and European allies.. ”. The White House staff should keep President Obama far away from this case, no meeting with his family, no constant updates, Tehran might try to sucker Obama in to talks, think Iran - Contra and you get the idea. From reports from the period President Reagan allowed his need to save the hostages in Lebanon to cloud his judgement via Iran, the Oval thought it was talking to moderates in Iran, that was mistake, thus the fate of one individual can not be allowed to shape US Foreign Policy, the case should be left at the State Department, any back channel talks should be about one thing, how to stop Tehran getting the bomb. It is a harsh world folks, compassion can not be allowed in real politics, even a great President like Ronald Reagan can make mistakes, lets hope Obama has learned that lesson.

Iran vs. US/UK

Sunday Mail: Reports that the Tehran Regime blames the US and the UK for the assassination Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan a nuclear scientist. It can be argued as a policy the UK and the US does not go around killing Iranian nuclear scientists, this is typical PR from the Tehran Regime, the most likely suspect has to be Mossad, the Israeli Intelligence Agency, as long as they get the right individual, don’t use UK passports and are sure it will delay a nuclear armed Iran such operations from the perspective of Israel are the only option left for Israel. If Tehran is foolish to block the Persian Gulf the West in the shape of the UK and US will have to take action, in the late 1980s the US Fleet under orders from President Reagan, protected tankers and sunk Iranian ships and platforms, thus keeping oil reaching the West. Lets see if Tehran is that stupid folks.

UK THREAT to Iran - Persian Gulf

Guardian: Reports that the Foreign Secretary William Hague has stated that all options are on the table when it comes to Iran, even military force. The rhetoric is getting harsher out of London and Washington D.C folks, lets hope Tehran has its ears open, the problem with Tehran is there are two power groups, the most powerful group is that of the Supreme Leader, he has the final say if Iran goes nuclear, the 2nd most powerful group is the court of the President. These two groups don’t get on, even if the West wants talks, your not sure who has the power, can the follow through with any agreement, just think Iran - Contra but worse folks. The West, in this case the US and UK have to hold their nerve, if talking does not work then the Sabre has to be used, it should be used with overwhelming force, this is not something that the West can get wrong.

Greece on the BRINK of COLLAPSE ?

Sunday Telegraph: Reports that Greece could be the “ ..first European country to default on its debt in 60 years..”. As noted in the London Times yesterday folks hedge funds have bought Greek debt and are betting on its failure, as the article notes these debts are insured, thus if Greece officially defaults the hedge funds will be laughing all the way to the bank, thus in many respects they don’t have to do a lot, just say NO to any hair cuts in the debt that they hold, if that happens there will be no deal, the Troika wont give any more money to Greece and then Greece falls over a cliff. As this blog has stated, that would be the best thing for Greece even with the austerity packages over years it will still have 120% debt to GDP. In other words folks, lot of pain and Greece will still be in pain, the EU/IMF/ECB has to cut Greece off, it’s a drug addict, it needs to go cold turkey, its harsh folks, but it’s the only way for Greece to move on, otherwise its just back and white 1950s austerity for nothing at the end of the day.