Wednesday, April 06, 2016

What is a Contested Convention ? - Election 2016


Lets Get Real:

The delegates are bound in the first ballot to the candidate that was chosen by their State and after that its open season on getting the delegates to chose the nominee.   That why Trump being rich comes in to play, if the Campaign is any good it will have files on each delegate and what they would expect should they become unbound after the 1st ballot.   That type of political operation takes years of being in the field and a LOT of money.  Overall it might be Trump or someone we have not heard about, that is why a contested convention is fun. 

The Delegate Count - Election 2016

Guardian: Reports on the Republican and Democratic Delegate count, the article notes that on the Republican side " Trump 743, Cruz 517, Kasich 143, " on the Democratic side, " Sanders 1,058, Clinton 1,748, ". 

Lets Get Real:

The Democratic race is OVER, its a ghost play now, HRC will get the nomination and every one knows that, it just depends when Sanders leaves the race.   On the Republican side its a real race, if Trump does not get to the majority of 1,237 then its a new game, lets recall Trump is a billionaire, that is not to say he will buy the delegates, but he can offer them goodies, golf at his complex or a stay in a Trump Hotel, or a flight on Trump One.   Let's see who is the last man standing at the Convention. 

Wisconsin Result - Election 2016


Lets Get Real:

The anti Trump forces and that includes the Republican Establishment has to create more problems for Trump, in New York State the Trump's home State he leads my miles, thus this needs to be cut down, it will take Super Pacs with a lot of money to fund negative TV adverts.   Cruz is not that popular with the Senate Republicans, but its like a choice between shooting yourself and throwing yourself off a cliff, the cliff option is Cruz.    The Democratic race is OVER, it will be Hillary Clinton, lets hope ALL the way to the White House.