Monday, May 11, 2009

Al Qaeda in Pakistan

The New York Times: Reports on the move of the terrorists group Al Qaeda to Pakistan. This goes back to my previous post, if this terrorist group is out of Afghanistan, why is the USA and the UK still there, why no move to the border region between Afghanistan and Pakistan, make a deal with the Taliban of Afghanistan, and eliminate the Taliban in Pakistan. This is outside the box thinking, but worth a thought, could a deal be made with the Taliban in Afghanistan, they get Afghanistan but keep their evil regime and ideas in Afghanistan. The deal would be based on the breaking of the link between the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan, is this even in the ball park. How much forces it would it take to destroy the Taliban in Pakistan, could we ever win such a battle. The lesson of the Vietnam, always think outside the box, might be mad but always keep thinking.

The Battle for the Soul of Pakistan, its heart the Swat Valley

WSJ: Reports on the tough fight between the Army of Pakistan and the Taliban. It comes down to one word, counterinsurgency, the Army of Pakistan is a conventional Army, its fighting a War it does not understand, much the like the USA in Iraq between 2003 - 2006. The problem is the USA does not have the time to teach the Army of Pakistan the lessons the USA learnt the hard way in Iraq. Pakistan is a nuclear power, its Army is obsessed with fighting a conventional war with India. The ISI the Intelligence Agency of Pakistan is in bed with the Taliban, thus one has to wonder how much secret information the Taliban is getting from Islamabad. Thus if the the Army of Pakistan cant or wont cut it in the Swat Valley and in the border regions between Afghanistan and Pakistan the USA might have to send in special forces in to do the job. In Iraq the USA could do deals with some of the terrorists, it has worked so far, there are problems but the Bush surge worked. The USA cant do a deal with the Taliban of Pakistan, two words, nuclear missiles, what if the the terrorists got hold of them or was given them by the Taliban. Thus down the road Obama might have to send in ground troops in to Pakistan.

What about the Nukes? - Pakistan

Bloomberg.com: Reports that Pakistan will not inform the USA of the location of all of its nuclear components. As Pakistan is fragile, the USA should demand this information before Pakistan gets a dime. It is important to think outside the box, what if the Taliban get control of a nuclear missile or can create a dirty bomb. It is up to Government of Pakistan to decide who they trust, but the USA and Pakistan need each other, thus in a two way street deal, the USA gets all the information on the nuclear missiles and warheads and Pakistan gets informed about the killer drones of the CIA.

Roxana Saberi - Free

BBC News: Reports that US-Iranian Reporter Roxana Saberi is free from custody. This shows that a deal with Iran could be on the cards over its nuclear development. But lets get real here, it could also be a clever PR stunt by Iran. This will allow President Obama to seek further talks with Iran, without the pressure of a US Reporter in jail. But Iran could be playing a double game, it frees reporter and starts talks with Obama, keeps those talks going on and on, like Korea and then on the last day announces to the world it has the bomb. The delay through talks would remove the threat of an attack from Israel, Israel will not attack Iran if the USA is from their point of view in serious talks with Iran. Also we have to look at the internal politics of Iran, could the arrest have been done by the hardliners to prevent any talks, and the moderates have the upper hand to get the reporter released. Is the Conservative President of Iran playing to the moderates to win election, what next the appearance of talks with Obama. Then after endless months of talks Iran will declare it has the bomb.