Wednesday, April 03, 2019

The Guardian view of May's offer to the Labour Leader - Brexit Update 3 - NO BREXIT


Lets Get Real:

In the above the left wing Guardian just might be RIGHT.   The PM could be seeing Brexit about to sink and thus wants to share the blame, the one thing she can do for the Conservative Party; is either resign of her own accord or is forced out by her Cabinet; is to share the blame with the Labour Party.   Before that she does not want the whole BLAME for the fiasco that is BREXIT, thus this move to ask Corbyn in for talks.  The Labour Leader must know that his HARD REMAINERS MPs want a 2nd referendum and anything less will be seen a betrayal by them.  IF May and Corbyn can iron out an agreement the Corbyn will look like a Statesman who saved BREXIT and set the future course.   If the talks are a disaster then May can blame Corbyn for being to rigid and causing BREXIT to sink.  Both May and Corbyn have a LOT to LOSE over the next few days. 

Republicans start the political war on " Creepy " Joe Biden - Election 2020


Lets Get Real:

The Republicans are trying to outdo the MeToo movement when it comes to former Vice - President Joe Biden and it is WRONG.   The former VP is a decent guy, a bit to touchy feely, but then he is OLD.   What was seen as being normal, humble and fun has now become seen as a attack on the personal space of women.   The Republicans see Joe Biden as a threat, he comes across as normal, not a policy wonk who needs your votes and will happy shake your hand and smile, the over touchy feely bit comes from the fact that Biden is OLD, a guy who's character was formed decades ago, and no one then saw as problem.  It is a bit rich for the Republicans to go after Biden with President Trump in the White House, one does not see Trump saying SORRY for anything.   Of course the Democratic candidates in the field might want Biden OUT, then they go up in the polls.   The Vice - President should be wary of his fellow Democrats, they also want to win nomination and go against Trump, they will look through out Biden career in the Senate and the Vice - Presidency.   Does VP Biden really want to go through the hassle of a campaign with taking in bound attacks from his own Party and the Trump White House. 

When will the Cabinet Resignations start? - Brexit Update 2 - NO BREXIT


Lets Get Real:

This is Grand National week, this blog abhors betting, but in this case the blog will bet that PM May will not be PM by Saturday.   The PM always makes the WRONG MOVE, she is going against a majority of her Cabinet and MPs in wanting talks with the Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn.   IF Michael Gove wants to be the future Leader of the Conservative Party he has to weasel his way out of having supporting PM May, Boris Johnson has come out firmly against the May talks with Corbyn, the members of the Conservative Party, those that do the footwork, getting lefleats out, going around the houses when an election is on, are firmy HARD BREXIT supporters.   A PM cannot go against the majority of her Cabinet and MPs, it is not sustainable in the LONG TERM.   This blog would not be shocked or surprised if Theresa May is FORCED OUT by Friday or Saturday.   All political careers end in failure, with the exception of Winston Churchill and the Gipper. 

The May and Corbyn SHOW - Brexit Update 1 - NO BREXIT


Lets Get Real:

The idea of PM May and the Labour Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn being able to agree to a new Brexit Deal is foolish.   PM May would have to agree to a customs union that deals with trade, while Corbyn would have to give up on the idea of the UK staying the single market, as being in the EU single market allows for free trade.  The FACT that there have been no resignations so far shows that the Brexit Ministers are making to CALLS to fellow Ministers and MPs to see how they react, first impression is badly.  The Hard Brexit MPs do not want a customs union as it would prevent the UK doing trade deals with Countries outside the UK.   The idea that Jeremy Corbyn would design the future of Brexit is a lead to balloon to these MPs.   One would be surprised and shocked if PM lasts the weekend as PM.  It is reported that a majority of the Cabinet wanted to leave on a NO DEAL, but the PM overruled them, going with minority who are HARD REMAINERS.  One can expect a storm over the next few days, the PM would have to go if 14 Cabinet Ministers and a majority of MPs make it clear they will resign from their offices and will not obey the Government whip.   Of course will the Hard Brexit MPs have the courage of their convictions or do they like the red boxes and the Chauffeur driven cars to much, do they have leadership ambitions for the future, the Party members will not forgive those that follow May on this idea.

On the Labour side Corbyn will face pressure from those that want to remain in the EU and want a 2nd referendum vote, if they see May and Corbyn doing a DEAL, they will feel that Corbyn is helping in a Conservative BREXIT.   Thus expect disquiet from the Labour backbenches.   It might be in the interest of Corbyn to allow the any new deal to fail before it gets off the ground, he wants a general election, he wants a hard brexit to blame on the Conservatives, if he is part of the process he gets either the credit or the blame.   Thus expect growing anger from HARD REMAINERS within the Labour Party. 

This May idea heading for doom, it just a matter of how, either the Conservatives pull out or Labour forces Corbyn to make demands that the PM can not give in too.