Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Conservative Party Manifesto 2010

Today it was the turn of the Conservatives to hold their Manifesto Launch. It was an excellent speech by Mr Cameron, asking the people to be part of the political process, the main bullet points of the Manifesto are the following:

1. Be your own boss.


2. Sack your MP.


3. Run your own school.


4. Own your own home.


5. Veto council tax rises


6. Vote for your police


7. Save your local pub or post office


8. See how government spends your money


The Manifesto has traditional Conservative Polices, such as allowing people to get on in life, also it courts reform with the ability of people to sack their MP. Also it understands the need to protect civic society from the ground up, thus the need to protect important sectors in the countryside such as the Pub or the local post office. In North Wales there has been a massive decline in local Pubs due to the cost of buying a drink also the big super markets are selling the stuff at cheaper prices thus making local non brand pubs out of date and to expensive to run. The Conservatives also promise to roll back the NI job tax of the Labour Party but also to help married couples. Lets see if the Tories get a bounce from this Manifesto.

The Sun Poll - 6pt Conservative Lead

The Sun: Has a daily tracking poll for the UK 2010 Election, this poll also has the Conservative Party on a 6pt lead over the Labour Party, in this poll the Conservatives have 39%, the Labour Party 33% and the Liberal Democrats on 20%. As we have seen with the Guardian Poll the Parties are within two percent of 37% - 39% for the Conservative Party and 31% - 33% for the Labour Party, the LibDems are stuck on 20%. Thus for the Conservatives to get a 1 set majority in the House of Commons they need a swing of 6.9%, more than Tony Blair got in 1997. The question that has to be asked is the Guardian right that the Conservative Party has not secured that deal with the UK voter, it really depends if you trust the polls, or more correctif you trust the UK voter to be honest with those asking the questions, one only has to recall 1992, everyone thought it was Labour shoe in, well John Major won with a 21 seat majority, thus Major and the Conservatives stayed in power in till 1997 and the arrival of Tony Blair. The 1997, 2001, and 2005 elections one knew who was going to win well before the election was called, and it was not the Conservative Party, this blogger will wait in till closer to May 6th before making a final prediction on share count and the seats in the House of Commons. There will be a lot of polls before the end folks, this blogger wont be going through them all; HAIL, I hear you shout; but if there is trend will point them out, such as both the Conservative Sun and the Labour Guardian both have the Tory Party with a six point lead, not enough for a Commons majority but a Hung Parliament, what fun that will be folks.

Obama 48% Disapproval - Gallup



Gallup: Reports on its latest daily tracking poll for the job performance of President Obama, the President stands at 48% Disapproval, while 45% of voters approve of Obama's job performance. This should really worry the Obama White House, the Gallup Poll is over average voters, even those young voters who voted for Obama in 2008 and who he needs to come out in Mid Term Elections of 2010 and in the re-election year of 2012. If Obama has lost the young, in this case I count between 18 - 30, due to the fact that he is forcing them to buy medical cover then the Democrats are toast in November, the House could be gone and the Senate could be on the brink over going to the Republicans. Those in the White House that think Obama is the second coming will argue that the should follow the Reagan path of the first term, keep steady and it will turn around, they are political fools, Reagan won big in 1984 due to the fact that the economy had turned, this is not on the cards for 2012. It would be ironic if Obama ushered in another generation of Republican Presidents due to the fact of his own arrogance. Thus the fate of the Obama Presidency will be based on the following factors, the economy, Iran, Afghanistan and Iraq. It will only take for two of these go wrong and Obama is on the way home back to Chicago, its still a few years away in objective terms, but Obama is heading in that direction, and the fun thing it will be own arrogance leads him to be another Jimmy Carter.