Tuesday, March 12, 2013

The US Policy towards North Korea - Korean Crisis Update 2

The White House: Remarks by Tom Donilon, National Security Advisory to the President on North Korea, ..The United States will not accept North Korea as a nuclear state; nor will we stand by while it seeks to develop a nuclear-armed missile that can target the United States.  The international community has made clear that there will be consequences for North Korea’s flagrant violation of its international obligations, as the UN Security Council did again unanimously just last week in approving new sanctions in response to the North’s recent provocative nuclear test….. the United States refuses to reward bad North Korean behavior.  The United States will not play the game of accepting empty promises or yielding to threats.  As former Secretary of Defense Bob Gates has said, we won’t buy the same horse twice.  We have made clear our openness to authentic negotiations with North Korea.  In return, however, we’ve only seen provocations and extreme rhetoric.  To get the assistance it desperately needs and the respect it claims it wants, North Korea will have to change course. Otherwise, the United States will continue to work with allies and partners to tighten national and international sanctions to impede North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs…..it is clear that the provocations, escalations and poor choices of North Korea’s leaders are not only making their country less secure – they are condemning their people to a level of poverty that stands in stark contrast not only to South Korea, but every other country in East Asia….we unequivocally reaffirm that the United States is committed to the defense of our homeland and our allies.  Recently, North Korean officials have made some highly provocative statements.  North Korea’s claims may be hyperbolic – but as to the policy of the United States, there should be no doubt: we will draw upon the full range of our capabilities to protect against, and to respond to, the threat posed to us and to our allies by North Korea.  This includes not only any North Korean use of weapons of mass destruction—but also, as the President made clear, their transfer of nuclear weapons or nuclear materials to other states or non-state entities.  Such actions would be considered a grave threat to the United States and our allies and we will hold North Korea fully accountable for the consequences… ”.

Lets Get Real:

This is about Iran folks, the worry that the Oval has is that at 3am it will get a knock at the bedroom door with the news that either Israel has hit Iran or Iran has just let off its first nuclear bomb.   In bad outcomes a Israeli strike is less bad for the Oval, as it would have no choice but to support the its close ally, the US Congress both Republicans and Democrats would place to much pressure for the Oval to refuse such support.    The North Korean Crisis it never going to end, the North Koreans are never going to start a full scale war with the South as this would lead to the fall of the Regime, also if it attacked the US the present land that contains North Korea would no longer exist, it is that simple folks.     The negative for the Oval is that it can not really do anything, North Korea is a nuclear armed power, with a million man army on the border between North and South Korea, thus the US and its allies can not really do anything either, thus one can see back door concessions of food via China, with the hope that the North Korean Regime gets back in to the box.     This is why the US and Israel can never allow a a nuclear armed Iran, it would make North Korea look like happy hour, a good happy hour, yes folks that bad. 


Troublesome Child = North Korea - Korean Crisis Update


Lets Get Real: 

This is typical of North Korea folks, its throwing its toys out, expecting the West to pick them up, in other words it wants the US and the West to feeds its people while it spends its money on becoming a nuclear armed power.   The Obama Administration has been right so far in its policy when it comes to North Korea, no more concessions for doing the right thing, thus while the US and South Korea follow through with joint military drills one can postulate that North Korea might try to shell a South Korean Island or sink a South Korean Naval Ship, it would not be the firs time folks.   Thus what should the Oval do folks if that happens, that is tricky folks, there has to be  reaction, but not a reaction that leads to a full scale war, one can argue that if North Korea shells South Korea the military forces of South Korea should take out the arms shelling them, that would be a defensive reaction, it would be up to North Korea if they react, one can assume that the North would not react, as any over reaction could lead to a full scale war between the two sides.   The North would lose folks, as the US would support the South, up to but not including nuclear arms.    It can be assumed that China would not want to get in to that fight, the North Koreans have shown contempt for China, every time China has told them to behave they have told China to get lost, without China the North Korean system would fall apart.   Thus folks expect more tension in Asia.