Wednesday, December 02, 2009

Obama and VICTORY in Afghanistan ?

LA Times: Reports on the Obama Speech at West Point, the Liberal LA Times does point out an interesting fact, the article states the following, " And here's how many times the Democratic chief executive used the word "victory" -- 0. " Thus if your the Taliban what do you see, a President that is in some respects weak, how can you win if your telling the enemy your leaving in 18 months, they just have either wait you out or do another Tet, it will take years to win Afghanistan and President Obama has stated that if conditions allow the USA will start to leave in July 2011. Its is ironic that Obama has allowed more time for Iraq, the War he opposed than the War that he wanted to fight in Afghanistan. As stated last night in my tweet on the speech, Obama is not a War President, can you see Kennedy or Reagan going to War and then stating the end date. If by July 2011 the War is not going well, is Obama going to leave his Just War, while keeping troops in Iraq till the end of the year, that would be a major contradiction, think of the political adds that the Republicans would use to attack him, weak and dithering. Thus a good policy speech but a weak PR, one got the impression that Obama was expecting a lot more applause that he got, sometimes if you watch his eyes he is expecting the adulation of the Campaign trial, cant he work without people falling at his feet, this was West Point they don't faint at his presence.

General McChrystal Supports July 2011 End Date

Fox News: Reports that General McChrystal supports the Obama start of the end date for the US presence in Afghanistan. As McChrystal got what he wanted I guess it is no surprise that he supports the Obama decision. Also lets be honest here the deadline for the start of US withdrawal from Afghanistan is based on the conditions on the ground at the time. Thus there is some elastic in that timeline. Lets see what General McChrystal can do with his new troops, he has about a year or else the Biden view looks good, yes even VP Biden sometimes has an original thought, sometimes!! I wont hold by breath for winning in Afghanistan.

5,000 = NATO - CNN

CNN News: Reports that NATO will add five thousand troops to the Obama thirty thousand surge to Afghanistan. The question will it work folks, the simple answer NO, but the US and NATO has to try, we saw the result of the failure of the Afghan War on the USSR. The terrain of Afghanistan makes any war hard if not impossible, also one has to understand that Afghan culture is not New York or London, the different sectors of Afghanistan come under tribal chiefs and war lords, corruption is the way they show good faith, lot like Chicago politics. Thus the idea that you can change a culture in under 18 months is rubbish. The best that the West can achieve is that Taliban agree not to have Al Qaeda back when they get power and not to support the Taliban of Pakistan. Any idea that you can change Afghanistan is just an illusion, Iraq was a different matter, the people of Iraq at the end of the day had gone through enough terror to want to end the power of Al Qaeda in Iraq, thus they turned against Al Qaeda, the civic society in Iraq is developing, its slow but its growing, in Afghanistan we have a society that has been destroyed by wars and terror. Thus the best the West can hope for is deal with the devil in the shape of the Taliban, if Churchill could do deals with a mass murder in the shape of Stalin, then the West will have to deal with the Taliban.

Good PR for Iran ?

BBC News: Reports on the release of the five British yachtsmen by Iran. It seems that Iran has gone for good PR rather than their usual actions of trial for espionage. Lets hope the FCO did not do a deal, this matter is small fry when you look at the issue of Iran's march towards the the nuclear bomb.

Obama's Pitch Part Two - Afghanistan

Its the day folks that President Obama has to sell the War in Afghanistan to the American voter, the White House has released some of what POTUS will tell his audience around the world. The President will say some of the following, " The 30,000 additional troops that I am announcing tonight will deploy in the first part of 2010 – the fastest pace possible – so that they can target the insurgency and secure key population centers. They will increase our ability to train competent Afghan Security Forces, and to partner with them so that more Afghans can get into the fight. And they will help create the conditions for the United States to transfer responsibility to the Afghans.” Its a mistake to give the impression that you want out, shows weakness, the Taliban will use this to get the people of Afghanistan to support them over the USA, they will argue that Obama's heart is not in the War. “Because this is an international effort, I have asked that our commitment be joined by contributions from our allies. Some have already provided additional troops, and we are confident that there will be further contributions in the days and weeks ahead. Our friends have fought and bled and died alongside us in Afghanistan. Now, we must come together to end this war successfully. For what’s at stake is not simply a test of NATO’s credibility – what’s at stake is the security of our Allies, and the common security of the world.” The Allies in NATO DON'T want to send troops to Afghanistan, that is the price the USA agreed to pay when it become the leader of the West, the UK will have ten thousand troops in Afghanistan by next year, no more folks, lets see if we can win with this second Obama surge. “Taken together, these additional American and international troops will allow us to accelerate handing over responsibility to Afghan forces, and allow us to begin the transfer of our forces out of Afghanistan in July of 2011. Just as we have done in Iraq, we will execute this transition responsibly, taking into account conditions on the ground. We will continue to advise and assist Afghanistan’s Security Forces to ensure that they can succeed over the long haul. But it will be clear to the Afghan government – and, more importantly, to the Afghan people – that they will ultimately be responsible for their own country.” It is a massive mistake in military terms to set out an end date, the Taliban can either wait Obama out or create havoc, think another Tet offensive ( 1968 ). On the political front the Republicans will say that it shows that Obama does not have his heart in the fight, but they will support the move, worse for Obama the Liberal left could see him as another Bush 43. The date set for the start of the end is conditional on the theatre of War, thus liberals wanted a hard end date, they will not be happy. This is now more than ever is Obama's War, if it goes South on him he will be a one term President, he wont seek re-election in 2012, its that crucial folks, if he wins in Afghanistan he gets a second term, that simple and very political.

Afghanistan Front News

MOD: Has released the name of the soldier killed on 30/11/09, the soldier was " Acting Sergeant John Paxton Amer, of 1st Battalion Coldstream Guards ". Our thoughts are with the family of Acting Sergeant Amer.