Friday, September 26, 2014

Hitting IS in the pocket - The New War on Terror


Lets Get Real:

While hitting IS terror targets is the main job the US and its allies in Syria it is showing that it understands that you have to cut off the money that goes in to the pocket of IS from black market oil.  It has been estimated that IS has pocket worth of 1 billion, that gets you lot of new weapons from the arms trade, also one day IS could get its hands on nuclear material, lets be very real, if IS had the bomb or nuclear material it would use it the Middle East and Europe.    Thus once UK is in action in Iraq it should start to make plans for action in Syria, the longer IS has some kind of protection in Syria it will grow and keep its head down while the US and its allies strike.   This will be a LONG WAR, not weeks, not months, but years, and there will be Western ground troops, call them special forces or whatever you want, you have to take IS down on the ground, that is job for US/UK Special Forces. 

Next Syria for the RAF - The New War on Terror


Lets Get Real:

The blog is not a five star general, but its easy to work out the next moves, the UK starts with bombing IS in Iraq, after that it will be Syria, you can not leave Syria alone as it would allow IS to hide its troops in Syria, then strike when the UK has withdraw after doing half the job.    The IS base in Syria has to be taken down, this will take the bombing of the US, the Arab allies and the UK.  Also there will be the need for ground troops, rather than call them boots on the ground, they will be Special Forces, in fact boots on the ground, but its a piece of PR to keep the public happy.   Then we come to Assad, this regime also needs to be taken down, thus the US and its allies will have to destroy IS first then Assad.   This is long and costly operation, there are going to be ups and downs, the public can not allow itself to be haunted by the 2nd Gulf War, there is no time for that kind of soul searching or muttering, time for action and not talks. 

The Case for UK action in Iraq - The New War on Terror


Lets Get Real:

This is the first stage of UK actions in Iraq, it can be argued that PM Cameron has given himself enough room to attack Syria if there is a urgent need to act, then the PM would come back to the House of Commons to seek support.   If the RAF are in action over Syria then the House of Commons will give it support, even through there will be mutterings from the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats. 

Thus the UK is in its third action, the Vote in the House will be yes as the Conservative Party, Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats support the action, the next question is what next, the IS terrorists want the West to take action on the ground, the West can not afford to be dragged in to another action, it has to get the Iraqi Army up and ready to fight, it has to arm the Kurds, and also use UK and US Special Forces in the region.   This will be a long War, it could still be going on during the general election, by then Syria could also be a target.   It will be interesting to see the ramifications of this War on public opinion and during the General Election of 2015.