Ohio - Obama's State

Thus folks lets look at the State that will decide the 2012 election, that is Ohio.   Lets have a look at the RCP Average of the State polls for Ohio. 

At present President Obama leads Governor Romney in the average of the State polls in Ohio by 48.3% to 46.1%.  Thus a 2.2% lead. 

Lets Get Real:

Thus Chicago Obama team have played this election in a wise manner, they used their early funds to define Romney in the rust belt State, they defined Romney as a out of touch rich guy, who while in business sent jobs abroad, the 1st debate victory by Romney came  to late, early voting has already started in a majority of the States.  In Ohio the early votes have gone to Obama, thus with the lead that POTUS has it can be argued that Ohio is in the Obama bag.    The Republicans will give Obama a close race, on election night do not expect a early night folks, could be like 2000 and 2004 mid morning before a confirmed Obama win.  What will be interesting will be the results in Congress, does Obama have long coat tails, who controls the House and Senate, also who are front runners for 2016.  

Moderator GONE Rogue ? - 2nd 2012 Debate

Guardian: Reports that moderator for the 2nd President Debate has come under attack from the Romney/Obama teams, the article notes the following, " ..Obama and Romney campaigns have contacted the Commission on Presidential Debates to voice concerns over the role of the moderator, Candy Crowley,.. ".

Lets Get Real:

It seems that Ms Crowley great offence is that she wants to be a reporter, ask tough questions, get the Candidates off their scripted answers.  Good for her, the Campaigns try to control every aspect of the political process, it about time that a reporter faced their wrath and acted like a reporter.  Lets hope the rest of the reports in D.C support her, it does not matter if she is accused of  biased either way, it will happen folks, this blog expects that, but if she gives tough questions to both Obama and Romney then this blog will be happy.   

Obama vs. Romney - Pre Debate Polls

Before the 2nd Debate folks lets have a look at the Polls.   It would be wise to look at these polls at the end of the week to see if the debate has changed the course of the election.  These are likely voter Polls. 

Rasmussen Reports:  In its daily tracking poll today we find that Governor Romney leads President Obama by 49% to 48%.  A 1% lead. 

Gallup: Reports that Governor Romney leads President Obama by 49% to 47%.  A 2% lead.

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks in essence we have a tied race, the Romney lead is within the margin of error, also as noted in previous post we have Obama lead of 3% in the ABC News/Washington Post Poll.   As Obama as the ground game and the money for election day it can be expected that he can get his vote out, in this he will be helped by the Unions.   The Romney bounce from the debate has gone away, it lingers in the above polls but expect Obama to be on top by the end of the week.   

Obama vs. Romney - 2nd Debate

BBC News: Reports that President Obama and Governor Romney are getting ready for their 2nd Presidential debate on Tuesday.

Lets Get Real:

Folks the Obama Team will make sure that POTUS wins the 2nd debate, this will follow a Presidential trend, in 1984 Reagan had a bad debate, so did Bush 43 in 2004, but they came back strong, thus expect a combative Obama in the 2nd debate.   This is not 1980 when Reagan finished off Carter in their only debate.       Also the format helps POTUS, its a town meeting, thus Obama should be able to connect to the voters  like Bill Clinton.   Also as the article notes the latest ABC News/Washington Post Poll has POTUS leading by 49% to 46%.   Thus the President has to be combative but not like his VP, that would not be him, it would look fake.   Thus 2nd Obama term and the Republicans and Democrats will be looking at 2016.