Tuesday, August 18, 2009

USA back to North Iraq

The Times: Reports that the oil rich North of Iraq is to get the presence of US Troops due to increase of violence between the Kurds and the Arabs. That is the problem with a Time Table for withdrawal that both Bush 43 and Obama have gone along with for Iraq. The local powers in the region want to fill in the vacuum once the USA has gone, thus you have a Kurds who would like an independent state in the North; this is the last thing that Turkey wants, it has its own Kurdish problem; and the rest of the population at each other throats. Lets be honest here, one could care less in pure hard nose political terms, but its the oil. The present state of the Western economies could not deal with an interruption in oil from the region, thus the US has to calm the region down, gets the locals back to talking and not shooting each other. Lets see if the USA gets out of Iraq by the end of 2011, as a British PM once stated, Events, Events are the master of politics.

Iran wants talks about its Nuclear Plans ?

Fox News: Reports that Iran wants talks about its nuclear ambitions. This is spin by President Ahmadinejad, he knows that President Obama is arrogant and thus thinks that he cant achieve a non - nuclear Iran by his talking to Iran. The point of the talks are simple, they will divert attention at home from the stolen election, the show trials and the fact that Iran is now a even more a totalitarian state. Obama is so arrogant he just might fall in to the trap and think this is real attempt by Iran at talks. The end result will be that Iran will allow Obama to think that he is making progress then announce at the end that Iran is a nuclear power. Lets hope Obama is not really a combination of Jimmy Carter and Neville Chamberlain. I will postulate that Iran might release the American hostages they are holding to show some positive spin and they expect the USA to start talks, or they could demand that Bill Clinton do another of his trips to pick up the hostages. I can guess the great PR President Ahmadinejad would get if he seen in a picture with Bill Clinton. Hillary Clinton might not be to happy, not sure Obama would think its a great idea either in the long term. This is my prediction, Israel will hit Iran, and Obama might just be grateful in the long term.

A New Tet in Kabul ?

BBC News: Reports on the latest attacks by the Taliban/Terrorists on Western Forces in Kabul. One can postulate that the Taliban/Terrorists have read their history, they might think this could be 1968 when the Vietcong attacked US Forces in Vietnam at the time of the Tet Festival. The Vietcong in military terms lost but that was lost on the American voter, what they saw was the disconnect between the Presidential statements of President Johnson and the reality on the ground, lets hope the USA military have Tet in their minds, on election day and after it can be expected that the Taliban/Terrorists will try a major attack in Kabul and other cities. Thus the Western and Afghan Forces should be on red alert. President Obama in PR terms should never allow the impression to gain ground that there is a disconnect between what he says and the images that the voter gets via his or her news. The Obama White House has problems already when it comes to the economy and health and the perception of the voter, the latest polls suggest that Obama has lost the trust of the voter, President Obama can not afford for Afghanistan to make him another LBJ. Thus crucial days ahead in Afghanistan.

Start from Scratch - Blue Dog Democrats on Health Reform

CNN: Reports on what could be a new call by Blue Dog Democrats, start anew on Health Care Reform. I think it can be argued that Blue Dog Democrats have gotten the message from their voters, the US voter does not like the Obama health care reform plan, and worse they might vote against their House of Representative member who votes for the plan. Over the weekend we saw the Obama White House lose grip of the PR of health care reform, on the one hand the US Health Secretary and President Obama walked away from a public option for health care, on the other hand the Liberal base of Obama's support went up the wall. If Obama wants health care reform he will have to stand up to his base, he might lose a few liberal votes but he will get Republican support, and a United Bill is better than a partisan left wing Bill.

Afghanistan Front News

MOD: Has released the names of the soldiers killed on Sunday in Afghanistan, the were " Lance Corporal James Fullarton, Fusilier Simon Annis and Fusilier Louis Carter, all of 2nd Battalion The Royal Regiment of Fusiliers (2 RRF) " Thus this month so far the UK has lost thirteen of its Armed Forces Personnel in combat operations. Lets hope these are the last deaths this month, this year. Our prays are with the families of the brave soldiers.