Monday, November 24, 2014

The FALL of Secretary Hagel - 2nd Term Blues

Lets Get Real:

The Oval Office has to be careful, if it throws Hagel under the bus he might want some revenge, this is about how bloggers and historians will deal with the Hagel tenure as Secretary of Defence, it can be assumed that Secretary Hagel will want to write his memoirs about his time as Secretary of Defence, and to move the blame for IS from himself to the Oval Office.   Lets recall Mr Hagel is a Republican, thus he does does not owe the Democratic Party anything, this might lead to a sharp and critical memoir before the Presidential Election of 2016. 

The Breakup between Obama and Hagel - 2nd Term Blues

Lets Get Real:

The REAL problem is President Obama, he made a bad decision not to leave US Forces in Iraq after 2011, he left VP Biden in charge of the Iraq relationship, that was massive mistake.  Thus from that mistake we have seen the growth of IS terror group Syria and Iraq, when it comes to Syria the President made himself look weak when he did not follow through with his threats to bomb the Assad Regime, now the US is bombing IS in Syria and Iraq and it looks like Assad is using that time to also bomb his opposition, in essence the US air force has become the air force for Assad.   The Oval Office has no real plan on how to deal with Assad, that has become a secondary issue, the main fight is now IS, the terror group has become a threat to the States of the Middle East and to the West.   As noted in this blog, Obama has become the new LBJ, thus we come to the Obama strategy to micromanagement Wars, and that is worked badly.   Lets hope the new Defence Secretary can stand up to the Oval. 

The SACKING of Secretary Hagel - 2nd Term Blues

Lets Get Real:

It seems the Oval is getting the PR message through first, so Hagel was sacked, this of course will lead  to an interesting confirmation hearing for his successor.   The Republicans should play hardball after the move by Obama on immigration.   The next Defence Secretary is almost can  not be fired, one can hardly have 5 Secretaries of Defence, it would be record,  thus the new Defence Secretary needs to be a strong, with his or her own base of support, outside of the Administration.  Also the new Secretary must he a hawk with the ability to stand up to the Oval Office.    Interesting days ahead for the Senate confirmation. 

Hagel OUT - 2nd Term Blues

Lets Get Real:

One has to say that Secretary Hagel was the right man at the wrong time, he was bought in as US withdrew from the WARS in Afghanistan, well events change, and the US is now back on a War/Terror threat from IS.   The Oval Office wants a safe pair of hands but also someone who is good at communication, in other words a strong Defence Secretary.   Of course that comes with a problem, what if the new Defence Secretary wants more bolder action than the Oval wants, President Obama will be on his 4th Defence Secretary after the confirmation hearing for the successor to Hagel, one has to question WHY Obama has problems with defence, Gates and his successor, Leon Panetta have both been critical of President Obama, with Gates it was the view that Obama did not support his own Afghan policy and with Panetta it was Iraq and the lack of leaving troops behind, thus the present War with IS in Syria and Iraq.    It will be interesting to read the memoirs of Secretary Hagel, was he pushed or did he fall by his own design.   

Hagel OUT as US Defence Secretary - 2nd Term Blues

Lets Get Real:

As this blog has noted you can't be a liberal President home and abroad, something has to give, thus it can be assumed that Obama wants to see more action in Syria and Iraq, he might even want to win.   It would be an irony if President Obama when he leaves Office in 2017 will have Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria on a ground war footing, that would be the political gods having fun at the expense of President Obama.   The Democratic Nominee will not be happy, he or she will either have to support these Wars or ditch the Obama brand.   The President that was elected to end Wars would have just added Syria in to the mix.   It will be interesting to see who Obama nominates for the Defence post, will it be a strong hawk or dove, that will tell the real story of this sacking. 

Vienna talks - UN and Iran - 2nd Term Blues

BBC News:  Reports " The deadline for a nuclear deal with Iran has been extended to the end of June after talks in Vienna failed to reach a comprehensive agreement. "

Lets Get Real:

This is Tehran playing the West, they give and the West gives them more time, by the time there is an agreement Iran will have the bomb and the rest of the region will have gone nuclear as they do not trust the US/UN to get the right deal and in time.  If your neighbour of Iran you are already using your oil money to make insurance against Iran, in other words you are looking at the nuclear black market to get the bomb as fast as possible before Iran can go nuclear and blackmail the region.   The Oval Office is so keen for a deal that it can not see that Tehran is playing it, that is the problem when you have stubborn President,  in many respects Obama is a modern President Wilson.   They are both elitist and stubborn and see the World they want to see. 

Sunday, November 23, 2014

The Vienna Talks with Iran - 2nd Term Blues

BBC News: Reports " Doubts are growing at talks in Vienna that a deal on Iran's controversial nuclear programme will be struck before a Monday deadline.  "

Lets Get Real:

The Tehran Regime knows that the West does not have the stomach for another Middle East War, thus they will play this game, of giving ground and then stalling when the talks resume.   The Obama Oval has made it clear that it favours Iran over Israel.   The Powers have to get the fact that Iran wants the bomb, once Iran goes nuclear this will cause an arms race in the region, the oil powers can buy the technology and the know how to develop the bomb.  Thus Iran must be allow 100% access to its nuclear sites, open and covert,  and allow inspections any time, they can not be appeased, if the West follows that route there will be a WAR, it is just a matter of when.