Monday, March 02, 2015

US, Iran vs. Israel - 2nd Obama Term

The New York Times: Reports on the diplomatic style of US Secretary of State John Kerry, the article notes the following, " To critics, Mr. Kerry’s eagerness is an open invitation for the Iranians to press for concessions as the talks enter the final stage. "

Lets Get Real:

One gets the impression that Secretary Kerry is following the path of British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain who thought he alone could prevent War with Germany, thus the Munich agreement allowed Hitler to take over part of then Czech Republic, before marching in to Prague later.  Chamberlain like Kerry and President Obama was arrogant, clever people always think they know best, its others who suffer when they turn out to be wrong.   Thus Israel should make it clear to the Oval Office if they think the deal is wrong they will take action no matter what the Obama wants or thinks.    A Israeli attack on Iran would force US politicians to make a choice, would they support Israel or Iran, if they want to get re-elected they will support Israel, Obama will be out of Office in 2017, the Israeli lobby will be around for longer. 

Israel and the US - The Flawed Relationship - 2nd Obama Term

Lets Get Real:

This blog is fair, lets see what the deal is between the Oval Office and Iran, any Treaty requires the approval of the US Congress, and the Congress will be extra tough on this deal.  If its not a Treaty but just an understanding between the US and Iran its not worth the paper its written on, are Democrats really at the end going to support the Oval Office no matter what, a flawed deal would be seen as a disaster for the US and a win for Tehran.   The Tehran Regime want to see an ease up in sanctions, there economy has tanked, thus they will appear to deal, but as pointed out by opposition groups last week the Tehran Regime can not be trusted, they have secret bunkers in which they pushing their nuclear plans.   Politics will decide how Democrats react to any deal, if the US voter says NO, then any Obama agreement is DEAD in the water, politics is brutal but simple. 

What NEXT in the New War on Terror - Iraq

Lets Get Real:

The prize for the new Iraqi Army and Government is the retaking of Mosul, but the price comes with costs, the attack has to be successful, the Army can not run away if there are problems, the US air force will have to have close co-operation with the land forces as to help in the house to house fighting in Mosul.   The Iraqi Army will also need support from US Special Forces, as the Iraqi Army will be attacking Mosul with the help of Iran it places the Oval Office in a fraught position, the the Israeli and US relationship is fraught to say the least, the Israeli Government sees Obama as selling out to Iran over a nuclear deal, thus the more the Oval is seen as in the same bed as Iran the more chance that Israel will attack Iran without telling the US.   The reason that the US needs Iran is simple, the Oval in 2011 left Iraq without leaving behind US troops, thus the growth of IS in Syria and Iraq.   Thus a threat to the region.  Mistakes have results even for a Nobel Prize winning President. 

Target Tikrit - New War on Terror

Lets Get Real:

If the new Iraqi Army can push IS out of Tikrit it will be a tactical victory for the West, on Strategy that is another matter, as the article notes the Iraqi Army is being helped by forces from Iran, thus when it comes to IS the US and Iran are on the same page.   This raises problems for the Oval Office, while the US and Iran are fighting IS in the Middle East they are having talks about the future of Iran's nuclear ambitions, how far can the Oval push Iran, when it needs Iran to buck up the new Iraqi Government, and what will the Allies of the US think that the US and Iran are in bed together in the MIddle East.   The politics of the Middle East are always murky, never more that NOW, lets see what the Iraqi Army can do in Tikrit, next it will be Mosul, and the Iraqi Army will need the support of the US in the air and on the ground. 

Saturday, February 28, 2015

Statement by the President on the Murder of Boris Nemtsov

The White House: Has a released a statement by President Obama on the murder of Boris Nemtsov, the statement states the following, " The United States condemns the brutal murder of Boris Nemtsov, and we call upon the Russian government to conduct a prompt, impartial, and transparent investigation into the circumstances of his murder and ensure that those responsible for this vicious killing are brought to justice.  Nemtsov was a tireless advocate for his country, seeking for his fellow Russian citizens the rights to which all people are entitled.  I admired Nemtsov’s courageous dedication to the struggle against corruption in Russia and appreciated his willingness to share his candid views with me when we met in Moscow in 2009.  We offer our sincere condolences to Boris Efimovich’s family, and to the Russian people, who have lost one of the most dedicated and eloquent defenders of their rights. "

Lets Get Real:

One does not have to be Mr Holmes to see who the White House think is behind the murder, the question is HOW will the the Kremlin react, will it find a puppet to throw to the wolves or will the murder become another Cold Case in Putin's Russia.   If this wa a move by the Kremlin it was a bad strategic move, it just recalls the fact that Russia has become seen as a BAD ACTOR on the World Stage.   When it comes to Putin's Russia there is no giving them the benefit of the doubt, never trust a former KGB Officer who thinks the end of the USSR was a tragic event in Russian history. 

Boris Nemtsov A Profile - Putin's Russia

Lets Get Real:

It will be interesting to see if there will be a REAL investigation, at this point the Putin Regime has to show it has no link to the murder, the action of President Putin from Georgia to East Ukraine and other acts of terror show that the Putin Administration is not held back by normal human values, this is the same Country that gave the Russian rebels the ability to shoot down a  plane over East Ukraine.   The Kremlin could fear that a bad economy could give support to the Russian opposition, better to take out threats before they can lead a successful opposition to the Putin Regime.   Once KGB always KGB. 

Friday, February 27, 2015

Obama on the passing of Leonard Nimoy

I loved Spock.

Lets Get Real:

This is a very moving statement by President Obama, its a day not for politics but recalling a great artist, Mr Nimoy will always be Spock, it can be argued that Spock's eyebrow would have gone up at all this praise and say " fascinating ".   In this case the praise is deserved, the arts and us as humans are better off because of Mr Spock, as Captain Kirk might have said " We are all human, even aliens ".  Live Long and Prosper ALL.