Wednesday, March 25, 2015

US/Iran vs. IS in Iraq - Iraq Crisis


Lets Get Real:

As this blog has noted, the politics of the Middle East can be murky and ironic, so now US air planes are attacking IS targets in Tikrit in support of Iran's forces in Iraq.    The Tehran Regime and the Baghdad Regime started the battle for Tikrit without asking for US cover, they thought they could do it on their own.   The battle has stalled, Iraqi and Iran forces have seen many of their troops killed by IS, thus this call to the US for support.   Also this could be a strategic win for Obama, now that Iran needs US support is the time to pressure them when it comes to their nuclear ambitions, in other words get a better deal.   The Republicans will go with this issue, and most Americans will be wondering, what happened, Iran has supported terrorists that have killed many US troops, and now the US air force is their cover.  MURKY AND IRONIC. 

Israel vs. US - Middle East Crisis


Lets Get Real:

IF the uber liberal NYT is reporting this, it means that the Obama Oval should back off, the Democrats have to run in 2016, the Israeli lobby is powerful due to its influence and its money, the Dems will not sink their ambitions as to give Obama a foreign policy legacy.   This is what happens when you have a leader like Obama, ALL that matters to POTUS is himself.   As for the 2016 he does not have a dog in that race, if he did would want to make sure that his political actions did not have a negative result for the Democratic nominee.    That is the problem with having an old hand as VP, its the same problem that Bush 43 had with Dick Cheney.   A sitting Vice - President who has political ambitions on the Oval Office would want to make sure that the President was kept in check by the political realities that his or her actions would result in for his or her campaign.   Thus expect more Dems to seek some distance from the Obama Oval, it will be interesting to see how HRC jumps on the issues.   If HRC is the nominee she will want the blessing of the Oval and to use the Oval in liberal States, she does not need a POTUS who's actions could have major negative effects on the campaign trail.    As a famous Democratic Speaker one said, all political is local, just that the Israeli lobby is big and with dollars to back it up, ALL THINGS ARE POLITICAL. 

When to ACT? - Yemen Crisis


Lets Get Real:

This could develop into a major disaster for the Obama Oval,  on the one hand Saudi Arabia a close ally of the US might take action to defend its own border but also to make sure Iran does not gain more power via its support for the rebels in Yemen and due to the nuclear deal with the US.   It has been clear from numerous sources that SA is very concerned about a nuclear armed Iran, a nuclear armed Great Iran is more of a troubling development.   What if the proxy War between SA and Iran becomes a formal war, the US would be on the spot, the US gains billions from SA buying military planes etc from the US, while Iran could go nuclear with a limited time scope.   The wishes of the Obama Oval could face the reality of the murky politics of the Middle East.   Also Israel and SA are on the same page when it comes to Iran, it would be ironic if took SA and Israel through combat means to suppress the nuclear plans of Iran.   That is the politics of the Middle East, murky and ironic. 

Yemen Update - Yemen Crisis


Lets Get Real:

Thus we are seeing another failed State, on the one hand you have the Houthi rebels supported by Iran, while you also have Al Qaeda on the march.  The Gulf States should not wait for the US to act, it won't, Obama is good for drones, special forces, but will not use troops to gain his strategic aims, the Gulf States have talked the talked when it comes to Iran, its time they act, they have the forces, that is one of the benefits  to having oil money, at this rate Iran will have major influence in Syria via the Assad Regime and in Iraq via the new government.   The Tehran Regime from reports are going to get a good nuclear deal, those opposed to Iran should not wait for the US, time to use your own forces to prevent the growth of a Greater Iran. 

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

When to SPY on your Friends - US and Israel


Lets Get Real:

The best people to spy on are your friends, they can be worse than your enemies.  Israel has to worry that the Obama Oval will sign any deal with Iran to get a decent 24/7 news cycle.   The liberal left wing media have shown contempt for Israel for years, they are more interested in the creation of a Palestinian State and the are pro Arab when it comes to the Middle East Peace process.   The Mossad of Israel are the best in the business, they sometimes go over the line, when it comes to British interest and subjects there are lines that Israel should not cross, if you have to annoy anyone go after other European Countries.    As Israel is not part of the talks with Iran they have to use old methods to get the important information, then they can get the Israeli Lobby to lobby the US Congress to say NO to the agreement between Israel and the US/UN.   Friends can sometimes hurt more than enemies, you do not expect to be sold out by your friends. 


The downfall of Yemen - The New War on Terror


Lets Get Real:

The Obama Administration has a problem, the Tehran Regime is supporting Iraqi Forces against IS, on a pure tactical level that works for the Oval Office, at least is not Western troops fighting IS.   On the strategic level this means that the US is on the same page as the Tehran Regime and the Assad Regime in Syria when it comes to IS.   On the other hand Yemen was seen as a successful part of the Obama foreign policy, that has gone up in smoke. The Gulf States do not trust Iran, and because the Oval wants a deal so badly the Gulf States do not trust the Obama's America.    It will be interesting to see if the Gulf States take action, this would mean that other US allies will threaten any deal with Iran, it can be postulated that Iran will place pressure on the US to make sure its Gulf States allies do not act, power playing in the Middle East can be complex. 

When your Finished your Finished - David Cameron and being PM


Lets Get Real:

This was a tactical mistake by the PM, all the runners for the leadership will want to make sure that their elbows are bigger than any opposition, and that is just the Conservative Cabinet.   Also it was a statement that undermines the confidence of the voter, if they vote Conservative they are voting for David Cameron to be PM, now they will start to think that if they vote Conservative they will face a soap opera for the leadership within a few years.  On the strategic level its a mistake because the leaders of the other political parties wont say the same thing, they will rubbish the move, also as stated the maths is against PM, he will not get a second term, this will lead to a Conservative defeat and a call for a leadership ballot.   This blog will start to look at the Labour Cabinet after the May election, of course Ed Miliband will be the PM, the question is does he have the power to move Ed Balls from No 11, otherwise it will be a return to the Blair/Brown years of conflict.