Friday, April 24, 2009

Afghanistan and Pakistan NOW

Telegraph: Reports that al-Qaeda could have a safe heaven in the Swat Valley in Pakistan. If al - Qaeda can develop bases in Pakistan proper then the War in Afghanistan gets ten times worse. As the Telegraph states the terrorists would have access to modern travel and communication, at least before the terrorists had to hide in deep caves. Thus the minutes, hours, days developments in Pakistan should be a constant concern for the Obama White House. What if the Army supports the Taliban, what if the Taliban/Terrorists get hold of nuclear weapons. Iraq defined Bush 43, Pakistan will define Obama Presidency. All the options are bad, lets hope Obama can find the less bad option, so far Obama does not fill one with confidence.

Taliban repel Troops in Buner District

Guardian: Reports that the Taliban have repelled a Force sent by the Government of Pakistan to push the Taliban back from Buner. This shows that the military forces of Pakistan are weak, Pakistan is a failed state. The Obama Administration might have to think outside the box, all the experts say that the USA cant place troops in Pakistan. The question should be asked, what happens to Pakistan and Western Security should the Taliban/Terrorists take over Pakistan and their nuclear weapons. Thus expect the USA to place troops in Pakistan, if Obama does not act he might find he is like Jimmy Carter, Carter waited to long and he was bought down by Iran.

North Korean Hardball for Obama

BBC News: Reports that two US Reports kidnapped by North Korea from the border between China and North Korea will be placed on Trial. This is North Korea playing hardball with Obama, the Times of London reports that experts believe that North Korea can place a nuclear warhead on a missile, this makes North Korea part of the nuclear club. Thus Obama will have to have direct talks with North Korea to get his two reports back, he does not want to be another Jimmy Carter with hostages in the news every day. The USA cant attack North Korea now that its a nuclear power. The Obama Administration will have to make sure that North Korea does not sell its technical developments to Iran.

North Korea part of the Nuclear Club

The Times: Reports that experts believe that North Korea can place a nuclear warhead on a missile an launch it against the South and Japan. This is a game changer folks, Japan will now go nuclear, Japan will not allow a threat from North Korea. Thus expect both South Korea and Japan to go nuclear, the Obama Administration is up a creek, it will have to pander to North Korea, that will not be new Obama of late. It will be interesting to see what they want, end of sanctions, a defence deal, Obama will have to eat crow. The fact that North Korea is a nuclear armed power will show his words mean nothing, Iran will go nuclear, Obama is a political windbag but worse he is the new Neville Chamberlain.

Another Abu Ghraib ? - Detainees Pics held by the USA to be released - US Defence Department

Fox News: Reports that another damaging episode from the Bush Era is about to be released, detainees pictures that resemble those from Abu Ghraib. These cover those held by the USA in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Liberal left might have missed the fact but their President, Barack Obama is fighting a War in Afghanistan, in fact so is the UK. This is not a call for censorship but prudence, the terrible treatment of prisoners in the Iraqi prison of Abu Ghraib had a terrible effect on the image of the USA. The USA is leaving Iraq by 2011 in less the Obama Administration gets a new agreement to develop a base there for future operations against Iran. The War in Afghanistan is on going, Obama has sent another twenty one thousand troops to Afghanistan, the UK is sending another nine hundred. What is going to be the effect of these terrible pics, one can postulate that the 24/7 news channels will run them in a loop. These pics should have been withheld till after the War in Afghanistan. Those that committed any crimes in the pics should be punished straight away but the pics themselves should be withheld as a matter of state.

Split in Congressional Leadership and White House over Torture Investigation

The New York Times: Reports on a split between the Democratic Congressional Leadership and the the White House. President Obama and the Democratic Senate Majority leader oppose a special panel to investigate the Bush 43 and his Tough Interrogation methods, while the Liberal Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi wants an investigation. It seems some political reality had reached the White House, it could be that old political hands recall the Church Senate Investigation of the CIA in the mid 70s, recall it didn't end well on the whole, the CIA was neutered by the the Investigation and the Carter Administration that felt you didn't need spies and could get all your information from the spy satellites. Thus the Invasion of Afghanistan by the USSR and the revolution in Iran and the hostages that bought down Jimmy Carter. Also the torture row has taken a new twist it seems that due to the reforms from the Church Investigation; Congress Leaders had to be informed of CIA action; that the then Democratic Minority Leader of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi as reported by the Politico was informed of such torture methods. Thus the call by Nancy Pelosi might be more to do with protecting her political backside that caring about the issue. The Republicans should push for a fair investigation as like the 9/11 investigation, and all branches of government should be investigated, the Executive and Congress.

Get off the Dime and Act, USA to Pakistan

BBC News: Reports that the US Defence Secretary Robert Gates has called on the Government of Pakistan to take action against the Taliban/Terrorists threat to Pakistan. The reaction of the military of Pakistan will decide if the USA has to take action in Pakistan, if the military cant or wont deal with the threat then the USA will have to take action. The badlands of the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan has become a open wound for Pakistan, the USA should plan to move troops in to the Swat Valley, they policy should be be dual, on the one side a large military presence to destroy the Taliban/Terrorists but also an economic plan for the poor areas of Pakistan. The Government of Pakistan has to win the hearts of its own people, it needs to create an economy that's allows the poor to feel they have the chance to move up the social ladder. The Taliban/Terrorists are gaining supporters from those that are on the bottom of the social spectrum. Thus the Obama Administration needs a dual policy before they lose Pakistan to the Taliban and really have a bad day.