Tuesday, October 07, 2014

Leon Panetta vs. President Obama - The New War on Terror

CNN - Politics: Reports on the memoirs of Leon Panetta, the former Defence Secretary to President Obama, the Secretary is critical of POTUS when it comes to Iraq and Syria, the article notes the following, " It's clearly a struggle for Panetta—who said he admires and likes the President—to reconcile the decisive Obama who approved the raid against Osama bin Laden with the President who vacillated over Syrian air strikes. "

Lets Get Real:

Thus the foreign policy and intelligence elite have decided to throw President Obama under the bus, HE is to blame for the growth of IS, if he had pushed he could have gotten a deal for the US to stay in Iraq and might have checked IS.  On Syria the President stated a red line but did not follow through, thus he and the US looked weak.  If President Obama wants to save his Presidential legacy he has to place ground troops in Iraq and later Syria, this is the only way that the "new" Wars in Iraq and Syria can come out as a net plus for the Administration.  Of course down the road we have Iran, if Obama softens his talks with Iran then the government elite will disown him, its this simple, POTUS will have to be extra tough with Iran, no allowance for them to go nuclear, the need for constant inspections, the right for the UN to check any building or area in Iran, anything less is a sell out to Iran.   That is the problem when your weak as POTUS. 

What do about Kobane - The War on Terror


Lets Get Real:

This is crunch time for the Oval and for Turkey, the Oval does not want to place ground troops in Syria, the Turks are playing poker with its hand, it has the tanks and the troops to take out IS, but it wants some things in return, as stated in previous post, a no fly zone, a buffer zone within Syria and and for the West to go after Assad, if the Oval and Turkey DO NOTHING, then IS has won a major strategic victory against US air power.    The US has to place pressure on Turkey, real pressure from the Oval for Turkey to move in, and push back and IS and allow the Kurds some breathing space, yes the Kurds and the Turks can not stand each other, that will have to wait, the fate of Kobane is urgent to the security of Turkey and NATO.   If the Turks  cant or wont do anything then the West has to consider Special Forces, off the books, something must be done by somebody. 

The Strategic Importance of Kobani - The New War on Terror


Lets Get Real:

The dread of the Oval is that call at 3am that Turkey is requesting THE US honours its pledge to NATO members to defend them if they come under attack, this would have to include US/NATO ground troops.    Only the Oval thinks that the use of airpower alone will break IS, it wont, there needs to be close combat on the ground, thus the need for US/UK special forces to go in to the towns and cities.   If the Oval Office had a strong leader then IS could be taken out in weeks, the last estimated had IS at around thirty thousand followers in combat, the could be taken out by a real army, thus back to the Turks, are they willing to bet the farm that the US WILL grant its demands, that might be a risky roll of the dice, time for action is NOW, not when you have a losing hand.  

Kobane WILL Fall - The New War on Terror


Lets Get Real:

Turkey is waiting in the wings while Kobane falls in to hands of IS, the Turks are playing a very strategic game, as the article notes, the Turks want a no fly zone, a buffer zone in Syria for the Kurds and for the West to go after Assad.   This strategy could be very smart  or foolish, the Turks are dealing with President Obama, a President who allowed IS to grow, and still wont send in grand troops.   What if Obama fiddles while IS becomes a State in all aspects but name.   The terror group could try to push in to Turkey, then what will the Turkish Government do, they will be blamed by their own population for being late to the game.   Of course Turkey is a NATO member, lets hope the Oval recalls is ALL FOR ONE, when it comes to NATO. Turkey should take the bull by the horns and go in NOW, not later, but NOW, they can push back IS, and get some bonus points from the EU, they do want to join.  This is not the time to blackmail the West, it could be costly for all.