Wednesday, November 09, 2011

Who is the Greek PM ? - Eurozone Crisis


Guardian Live: Reports that the talks between the PASOK and New Democracy have ceased for tonight and restart tomorrow. The poor people of Greece which of the Greek Gods did they snub, the Greek politicians are seeing the Country go over a cliff and its been days of talks. It seems it is really true, Greek politics is worse than US politics, message to Greek politicians, GROW UP or MAN UP, select some poor idiot who will take the job, push through the tough EU austerity package and allow Greece to have elections in next year. Lets be honest its folks it’s a thankless job being Greek PM at the moment, the Country will hate you, the EU treat you like a bad servant, the Markets have written you off, who would take the job, a patriotic Greek or an idiot?

Italy and the Euro

The New York Times: Reports that a factor in the raise of Italian bonds could be that Markets don’t trust future Italian Government to deal with the present economic mess in Italy. It is about politics folks, any new Italian Government that places a real tough austerity package on the table could be cutting its own throat at the next election, look how Governments form Dublin in Ireland to Athens in Greece have fallen. The people might say they want the Government to take the TOUGH decisions but the revolt when they see their benefits cuts. The Western model of a Welfare State is finished folks, the basic problem for the EU is that the social compact after 1945 only worked if you had a large young workforce to support a small older retired generation. This is not the case at the moment folks, you have small young workforce and a large level of older people, also since older people don’t have to retire at 65 there is less job prospects for the young. Its harsh but it’s the truth folks. Thus any Western reform must start with a tough talk between the generations, life is not fair as JFK once said, he also added some people are ill and some are not, thus the entire welfare model has to be changed, Unions will have to be restricted in what they can demand, older workers after lets say 70 have to retire, those that earn over half a million a year will have to pay more tax, the NHS will have to charge for some aspects as they do in Ireland. There has to be a new social contract folks, otherwise we are all heading for a cliff.

Obama and Iran

The Hill: Reports that the Obama Administration has stated the following on the latest nuclear report by the UN’s IAEA on Iran’s nuclear escalation, “ …but cautioned that it does not draw any conclusions about when Iran might be capable of building a nuclear bomb. ”. In other words drop dead Israel, the Obama Oval is never going to attack Iran before the 2012 US Presidential Election, its not in Obama’s character to push his base off a cliff. The left of the Democratic Party would go bonkers if Obama attacked Iran, they don’t see the problem with Iran getting the bomb, there will be tough sanctions, but it wont stop Iran, the Tehran Regime has seen how much a stick North Korea and Pakistan carry on the word stage due to the fact they are nuclear armed Countries. Thus Israel with its Arab neighbours who see a threat from a nuclear armed Iran might have to take action, just inform the Oval after the event. After the latest non diplomatic utterance from Obama caught by reporters the Oval would not have a lot of choice but to support Israel should they attack should we say in late October. As close as possible to the US Presidential Election. The cyber attack on Iran by the West, this blog gives credit, to CIA, Mossad, MI6 did the trick for a while but Iran has recovered, thus a military attack might be needed well before November 2012 folks, tense times ahead folks.

Death in Afghanistan

MOD: Reports that a UK Soldier was killed today in Afghanistan, the Soldier was from the “ 4th Battalion The Yorkshire Regiment (4 YORKS) ”. Thus since 2001 the UK has lost 385 of its Armed Forces Personnel in Afghanistan, of that total it has lost 341 in combat operations and 44 due to illness, accidents or other incidents.

Italian Bonds = 7.4% - Eurozone Crisis

Guardian Live: Reports that the cost of the Italian Government selling its bonds has risen to 7.4% and it would take 1.4 trillion Euros to bailout Italy. Thus folks a new Italian Government might need that IMF bailout, also the IMF will have to come in and run the Italian economy. The question is will there be an election in Italy, this would cause havoc in the Markets and send Italian bonds in to a black hole, thus in this respect Democracy is not a good idea, the present Italian Parliament has to pass a server austerity package, one that will make them hated for years, hell they might have to go in to exile, but it might just save Italy. These politicians wanted the power folks, well its costs, the good times are really over for Rome.

Spain NEXT ? - Eurozone Crisis

Telegraph Live: Reports that 10 year Spanish Bonds have risen to 5.8%. Thus folks PIIGS are taking down the Euro, one by one, Italian bonds have reached 7%, the attempt to bailout Portugal, Ireland and Greece and build a firewall around Italy and Spain has failed. The G20 was a disaster, China is not going to bailout out the Euro when it has to serve a massive US debt of trillions, what if the US and the Euro go SOUTH, the debts alone could take China down, thus end result folks, the argument that Germany should allow the European Central Bank print money, this will send alarm bells in Germany, this was tipping point in the fall of the Weimar Germany and the raise of Hitler. Thus the Germans will have to be dragged screaming in to allowing such action, that might be the only ay to save the Euro and the EU, but more important the World economy.

Italy in the DEAD ZONE - Bonds 7%


BBC News: Reports that Italian 10 year bonds have reached the 7% rate, while 1 year bonds are at 8%. It can be argued that Italy has gone over the cliff, the EU/IMF/ECB cant bailout Italy, they have to bail themselves out, thus a tougher austerity package, cuts in the welfare state and the public sector, tax hikes, also a new Italian Government has to take on the Unions and the Professions. Italy is stuck in the 1970s, it needs a figure like Lady Thatcher to come in and hit heads and win for Italy. Lets see if happens folks.