The end of the May Era - Brexit Update - Post Brexit

BBC News: Reports " Prime Minister Theresa May has won a vote of confidence in her leadership of the Conservative Party by 200 to 117.  "

Lets Get Real:

It can be argued that the PM only won because she promised not to lead the Conservative Party in to the next election.  If you break down the numbers you have 140 on the Government payroll, that means that the PM only got 60 backbench MPs to support her, and of those there were remainers who support her but will not back her Brexit Deal.  The PM is off to the EU tomorrow, she has stated that she is seeking a legally binding assurance that the backstop is time limited, will the EU give that, it has stated that the withdrawal agreement cannot be re-opened, but faced with a No Deal Brexit the EU might have to give concessions, place pressure on Ireland when it comes to the backstop.    The PM needs those 117 MPs voted against her to support her Brexit Deal, and of course the DUP.   The PM has to be tough with the EU, really tough, make it clear that the UK could leave with a no deal Brexit, make them get the fact that Europe would suffer, the Irish economy would take a hit.   It can be postulated that the PM is playing the long game, she wants to push the Brexit Vote well in January and force her Party and Labour to face the prospect of a no deal Brexit, that is her only option, politics will be interesting over the festive period. 

The Last Days of the May Era? - Part 2 - Brexit Update 3 - Post Brexit

Daily Mail: Reports " The vultures are circling: Theresa May 'on the verge of leadership battle' as Tory rebels claim they have the 48 letters from MPs needed to trigger no-confidence vote  "

Lets Get Real:

The Mail has been very supportive of the May Brexit Deal, it's view comes from its new Editor, but even the Mail can see the smoke signals coming from the House of Commons.  IF and its a BIG IF, there is a no confidence vote and the PM loses the vote the Conservative Party needs a quick succession fight, not weeks, but days, also it needs a BREXIT PM not another REMAINER as PM.    It will be interesting to see how the right wing papers play any succession battle, who will they support, and how fast can the Conservative Party elect a new leader, they can not bet that Labour will keep quite for long, the Official Opposition has been AWOL, that is because Corbyn is really a hard Brexit supporter, the problem is that a majority of his MPs are hard remainers.  Interesting few days and weeks ahead. 

Are we in the Last Days of the May Era ? - Brexit Update 2 - Post Brexit

Sky News: Reports " Close to the edge: May on the brink of a leadership challenge..More MPs have handed in letters to the chairman of the 1922 committee expressing their lack of faith in Mrs May's leadership.  "

Lets Get Real:

As stated this is just speculation, even House of Commons reports are not sure, the PM if she does face a no confidence vote has to pull something out of the bag, she should make it clear to Brexit MPs that she will support a No Deal Brexit, and dare the HARD Remainers to bring the Government DOWN.   Of course if there are no 48 letters then the PM has in till January 21st to come up with something.  The EU must wake up and smell the coffee, they could face having to deal with Boris Johnson as Prime Minister, that should scare them in to making more concessions to PM May.  It will be interesting to see how the Cabinet moves, the PM meets them tomorrow, what will she say about her visits to Europe, has she gained any concessions?  At the end of the day the Cabinet might do a Thatcher on her and tell her to go, anything might happen. 

Will there be a No Confidence Vote in PM May? - Brexit Update - Post Brexit

BBC News: Reports " Tory Brexiteers are increasingly confident they have enough support to trigger a no-confidence vote in Theresa May as party leader.  "

Lets Get Real:

As of this moment it is up in the air if 48 letters have been sent to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee, the BBC reported that sources suggested that the number had been reached for a vote, while on Sky it was reported that the votes have not reached that level yet.   The answer should be known by mid afternoon tomorrow, there are reports that the Chairman of the 1922 Committee is visiting the PM tomorrow.    But there have been doubts about this happening.   Thus if the PM does face a leadership no confidence votes she will hope that the hundred MPs on the Government payroll will vote for her, all she needs then is 58 further votes.   Of course if those that oppose the PM reaches over a 100 she could find it hard to remain PM.   This prediction from this blog IF there is a vote she will just get through, but it depends if you can trust MPs to tell you the truth of who they will vote for.   As for Brexit, the PM should push the issue in to late January 2019, then force the House of Commons to either vote for HER DEAL or a NO Deal Brexit.   Making predictions is a fools game, we await on events.