DUP a NO on the Windsor Framework - After Boris/After Brexit

Guardian: Reports " Brexit: DUP to vote against government over Windsor framework....Jeffrey Donaldson confirms unionist party will oppose Sunak plan for Northern Ireland in this week’s vote  "

Lets Get Real:

The DUP are very hard to please, they will vote against part of the deal that allows them to block future EU regulation, they want to say No to past rules, they seem unable to accept that they won, that goes for the ERG too, it has been reported that Boris will not support the Government on this issue, Boris has dreams of coming back as leader of the Conservative Opposition should PM Sunak lose the 2024 general election.  The former PM will be lucky if he is found not guilty of not telling the truth  to the House and suspended, its is reported that the PM will Conservative MPs a free vote on the issue, with the Opposition supporting the decision and most Conservatives voting against him, Boris could find himself suspended from the House and face a recall election.   Thus more internal civil wars in the Conservative Party from Brexit to Boris, its never boring in UK politics.  The UK might like a boring Sir Keir in charge, be careful for what you wish for voters. 

The DUP and Sunak's Brexit Deal - After Boris/After Brexit

Sky News ( TV News ) reports that the DUP is to set up a consultation panel to discuss the Windsor Framework.

Let's Get Real

The DUP is split, the House of  Commons members want to refuse the Deal, the leader seems more inclined to support the Deal, while Assembly members want to return to government, even if the First Minister will be a nationalist.  The 1st time in a 100 years. 

The consultation panel will allow for very frank discussions.   The DUP will take its time over this important issue.   The UK has built up the deal, the DUP will want some guarantees, over the Assembly block on legislation from the EU, that will mean some back room deals.  POTUS might find on his planned visit that's Assembly and Government will not have been reformed in the province, Oval will not be happy, no pics for the re-election in 2024.

The process will take time, the sides need to come together on their own free will, peace takes time, better than war - war.

UK to give legal assurance on N. Ireland's place in the UK - After Boris/After Brexit

Guardian ( on line ) reports that the UK is to give a legal assurance on N. Ireland's place in the UK.

Let's Get Real:

It seems from the article that the DUP leadership needs something extra to give to its members.  It is reported that the House of Commons MPs want to stay out of the Assembly, while Assembly members want to go back.

The UK could call fresh elections to give the people a CHOICE, those Election results should send a clear message to the leaders in the province, that could clear the log jam, or revise the Good Friday Agreement, as to prevent any party having a VETO on the formation of Assembly and government.  That could force the hand of the DUP.  The Windsor Framework is the best deal going at present, the DUP should take a victory.

PM Sunak SPEAKS and the 1922 Committee - After Brexit/After Boris

Guardian - Live Blog: Reports in its 5.58pm post the following, " Rishi Sunak has finished his meeting with the 1922 Committee. As my colleague Aubrey Allegretti reports, afterwards Steve Baker, the Northern Ireland minister, said Tory MPs were supporting the PM with a sense of relief.  "

Lets Get Real:

The problem is not the ordinary Conservative MPs, its those members who are part of the European Research Group and what their lawyers say, and the ERG take the lead from the DUP.  Thus far the DUP have been very quiet, except those on the extreme Party who want purity.  They are in the wrong game for that development, it is what the rest of the DUP think that matters.   The walking out of the Assembly has delivered better polls for the DUP and of course we have the N. Ireland Council elections in May, the DUP might want to wait for them first before going back in to the Assembly if they are minded to go back, otherwise the whole process has been pretty pointless, this could be the last chance for the Assembly.  Thus a lot rides on what the DUP say in the future. 

PM Sunak in Northern Ireland to sell his NEW BREXIT DEAL - After Boris/After Brexit

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 12.52pm post the following, " PM arrives for meetings with NI political parties.....The meetings are being held at a County Antrim hotel as the PM seeks support for his new agreement with the EU, aimed at reducing post-Brexit trade problems in Northern Ireland.  "

Thus far the DUP have not said NO, so far the ERG in the House of Commons has kept its viewpoints to itself, how long before the knifes come out for the agreement and who will go first, it can postulated that the DUP might be split about the Windsor Framework, the leader seems almost want to say YES, but he does not want to split the Party.   Former PM Boris has been very quiet, he has gone well under the radar, the ERG is meeting tonight after the PM meets the 1922 Committee, will they go their own way or follow the DUP.  The DEAL stands or falls on what the DUP say, the UK Government, the Biden Administration want the DUP to go back in to the Assembly, the question is will they, it hard to call this one, the DUP and the ERG lawyers will go through the various documents for the FRAMEWORK, we wait with a hope of success but knowing that North Ireland is a tough nut to crack even given the best will in the World. 

Main Points of New Deal - After Boris/After Brexit

Sky News ( TV ) reports the following:

1. Green lane for goods to Northern Ireland.

2. Red lane for goods going the Republic.

3. Assembly Break on new EU rules and legislation. 

4. Northen Ireland like the rest of UK for VAT and Government funding.

5  UK will get the same medicine as the rest of the UK.

Let's Get Real:

This sounds like an excellent deal, also Northern Ireland has access to the EU single market.   One does hope the fine print of the deal matches the rhetoric.  The DUP and the ERG will tell us shortly.  What will Boris say?  The House of Commons awaits! 

Who invited the EU President to meet the King? - After Boris/After Brexit

Guardian ( on line ) reports in its 12.27 post that No 10 stated it was up to the King who he invited for tea, the PM merely adviced the Monarch on the idea.

Let's Get Real:

The King is following the advice of his PM, No 10 wants to use everything it has to get Brexit Deal over the line.  Thus we wait what the DUP says and the ERG, the ERG will follow the DUP line.   The NEW DEAL as known will have a green lane, goods going to the province will not be checked, while a red lane will be goods going to the EU will be checked.  A limited role for the European Court of Justice, any issues from the deal will have different levels of judgement before ECJ, also the Belfast Assembly will have a say.  LONG DAY AHEAD! 

EU President to meet King Charles - After Brexit/After Boris

BBC News ( TV ) reports that the EU President is to meet King Charles after Brexit talks with PM.

Let's Get Real:

The PM wants to use the King's meeting as to show Royal Approval for the new BREXIT DEAL, thus place pressure on the DUP and the ERG.  It has been reported by Buckingham Palace that the meeting is at the request of the Government.  Thus is a wise move by the King, in case Sunak has produced a dud.   As Sky News reports the PM will give a speech to the House of Commons at 6.30pm, it will be interesting to see the atmosphere of the House, the devil is in the details.

Is a Revised Northern Ireland Protocol CLOSE ? - After Brexit/After Boris

BBC News: Reports " Brexit: PM needs to agree right deal on protocol, say DUP...Sources suggest an agreement could be reached as early as next week.  "

Lets Get Real:

There has been a upbeat tone to the latest talks, the PM went to Northern Ireland to talk to the Parties, every side seems to get that this could be it, a time for a DEAL.  At the press conference after the DUP leader seem to give the impression that the DUP would get back in to Government with the Nationalists, just a few things needed to be shorted out.  THIS comes to the classic, the devil is in the detail, will both sides in Northern Ireland agree to the NEW DEAL when shown the details, will the European Research Group who take their stand based on what the DUP says, follow and support their PM, the Labour Party has stated that it will support any new DEAL, that does not help the PM, if the ERG KNOW that the DUP is not supportive they will not follow a three line whip. Any DEAL only works if the DUP will go back in to Government, the role of the European Court of Justice will be very important, how close in the deal is the ECJ part of the process, that could be the sticky wicket for ALL SIDES.  The commentary is that that a deal could be done by Tuesday. 

EU talks down DEAL on NORTHERN IRELAND PROTOCOL - After Brexit/After Boris

Brexit forever!

BBC News: Reports " NI Protocol: EU talks down reports of compromise deal on European court.....Officials in Brussels have dismissed fresh claims of a compromise deal on the European Court of Justice's (ECJ) role in the Northern Ireland Protocol.  "

Lets Get Real:

It is has been officially denied that there is a DEAL on the protocol, thus that means that a DEAL is close, you always KNOW something is true when it has been denied ( Yes Minister/Yes Prime Minister ).  The real question is will the ERG in the House of Commons accept the new deal, they are lead by the DUP from Northern Ireland.  Any new DEAL must allow the transfer of goods from mainland to the province with no custom checks, that seems to have been agreed, while goods going to the Republic will have to go through the normal customs process in a different lane.  Thus will DUP accept a WIN, the UK gives role for the European Court if requested by North Ireland Judges, that seems like a good deal for the DUP, the question will they take YES as answer.  Thus it makes sure the province is part of the UK, but also the benefits of being in the EU.  The BIG QUESTION is will the DUP agree to go back in to Government, if they say YES, then the Biden Oval will be happy to visit to on the anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, if they refuse, the Biden will not come, a pit pointless.  Also the Biden Oval should keep out of the process, the Biden Oval is seen as to pro Republic also their special advisor, from the Kennedy clan, so that would not be a good idea.   It will be an interesting few days!!

PM on 2nd Scottish Vote and Northern Ireland Protocol - The UK Union under PM

Guido Fawkes/Sunday Times ( Hard Copy ): Reports that Penny Mordaunt is opposed to another 2nd Independence vote and that Mordaunt would appease the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol by keeping the border in the Irish Sea.  

Lets Get Real:

The Union would come under threat if PM got the job of PM, on the one hand she opposes a 2nd Independence vote for Scotland, but is willing to throw Northern Ireland under the bus, and prevent the establishment of a regional Government for the province.  The DUP has made it CLEAR, they will not go back in to Government with the Nationalists if the Northern Ireland Protocol is not removed or changed in a major way.  The DUP can argue that PM will stand up to the SNP but will not defend the rights of British subjects in Northern Ireland.  Under the LAW if there is no Government in the province after 6 months then there are fresh elections, this would create massive Constitutional problem, the Nationalists could increase their majority and make the DUP and other Unionist Parties feel weak, that could cause more problems in the province even violence, something no one wants to see.  Thus PM has to have a more clear policy, No to the SNP and YES to scrapping parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol in the Northern Ireland, otherwise her administration will start in a confused manner and lead to major problems down the road. 

The Northern Ireland Protocol and Sinn Fein - After Brexit

Guardian - Live Blog: Reports in its 3.08pm post the following, " Sinn Féin accuses Johnson of wanting to 'placate the DUP' after 'tough' meeting at Hillsborough...Sinn Féin has accused Boris Johnson of placating the DUP and not prioritising the resumption of the power-sharing executive. Mary Lou McDonald, the party’s president, made these points when she spoke to reporters after her meeting with the PM.  "

Lets Get Real:

The Nationalists have not gotten the message, if they want the chance to appoint a FIRST Minister for the first time in over Century they will have to give a bit, that is called politics.  The First Minister can only be appointed if there is a Unionist Deputy Minister, thus the Nationalists have to give the DUP something they can say they got before coming part of the Assembly and Executive.  Sinn Fein will have to decide, does it want power or just be told by the Irish Government what they can do, and from Dublin to Brussels.   As for what the UK Government can do, not much, it has already thrown the DUP under the bus already with the Northern Ireland Protocol, to keep them on side and agree to form a Government, the UK has to give the DUP concessions, or they will wait for six months and have another election, then they might be the biggest Party, politics is about chance and taking it, that is a very old political lesson. 

The UK PM in Northern Ireland - After Brexit

BBC News: Reports the following, " Northern Ireland: PM meets Stormont parties to avert crisis "

Lets Get Real:

The PM has a difficult job today, the DUP will not go back in to Government in the Province, without the Northern Ireland Protocol being changed or ripped up, the Nationalists want to keep the Protocol as they see this as a chance to get a UNITED IRELAND.  The PM has sent out mixed messages on this issue, he has gone from ripping up the protocol to changing the BAD PARTS, even the DUP has said it can live with the protocol if there are changes, the EU, the Irish Government and the Nationalists want to keep things as they are.  It is reported that the UK Foreign Secretary will give a speech to the House of Commons tomorrow on the changes the Government wants, this is not Article 16, were the agreement allowed the UK to suspend  the protocol if they protocol was causing problems in the province, it is about finding the RIGTH WORDS, that everyone can live with, if Nationalists want to have the post of First Minister they will have to give a little, or lose the prize. 

General Election Polls - GE1 - General Election 2019

Guido Fawkes: Reports on the political polls, " Ipsos MORI: CON: 41% (+8) LAB: 24% (-) LDEM: 20% (-3) BREX: 7% (-3)...YouGov: CON: 36% (-) LAB: 21% (-2) LDEM: 18% (-) BREX: 13% (+1)....Survation: CON: 34% (+2) LAB: 26% (+2) LDEM: 19% (-2) BREX: 12% (-1)  "

Lets Get Real:

This blog will be keeping an eye on the survation poll, in the 2017 it got the result pretty close to the actual result.  It should be noted that even this poll has the Conservatives on a 8% lead over Labour.  Of course polls are snapshots, they will go up and down, it will be interesting to see how the Brexit Party does, the Party started its election today with an offer of an alliance between the Party and the Conservative Party, it will be interesting to see how many Brexit Candidates challenge the Conservatives, as compared to Labour Seats.  Parliament is dissolved on Wednesday. 

UK General Election 12th of December - Part 2 - General Election 2019

Sky News: Reports " It is set to be the first December election since 1923 and will be dominated by debate over the UK's delayed departure from the EU.  "

Let's Get Real:

The last time a general election was held in December was in 1923, it lead to the formation of the first minority Labour Government.   The present Conservative Party has to fight this election based on a positive message, more funding for the NHS, more policemen on the street, lower taxes, and getting BREXIT DONE.   There will be endless polls, there will be ups and downs, also we have the debate between the leaders, PM Boris should be good at that.  There has to be Party discipline, keeping on a daily message, that a Corbyn Government would be a DISASTER for the UK and for Europe.  The stock market would tank if Corbyn was elected, the Russians would be happy, NATO would come under threat, Corbyn has stated that he would never order the UK to strike back if a rogue nation struck the UK with a nuclear missile.   This general election should also be about the defence of the UK. 

UK General Election on the 12th of December - General Election 2019

BBC News: Reports " The UK is set to go to the polls on 12 December after MPs backed Boris Johnson's call for an election following months of Brexit deadlock.  "

Lets Get Real:

This is a good day if you are a CONSERVATIVE and a BREXIT supporter, the UK will have a general election on the 12th of December.   The Conservative Party have to learn the lessons of 2017, no negative Manifesto ideas, get Brexit done, cut taxes, put more police officers walking the streets.  Protect NHS funding in the future.  PM Boris has to keep it simple, show the voters that they can trust the Conservative Party and paint Jeremy Corbyn as old Marxist unfit to be the PM, how Corbyn would take the UK back to the 1970s, strikes, three day week, looking weak around the World.  The Conservatives have to think they are 10 points behind, take the fight to the Labour Party and other anti Brexit parties.   The fight start tonight. 

The SNP and a General Election - Brexit Update 2 - General Election 2019

Sky News - Live Blog: Reports in its 7.37pm post the following, " SNP will support 12 Dec election - if PM ditches attempt to pass Brexit deal  "

The change of strategy was even a shock to a few SNP MPs, the SNP knows that there is a tough criminal trial coming up in January, and it does not want its image tarred by the Trial, thus this move to support a general election in 2019.  It seems that Labour will have to be dragged in a general election, that does not look good, the older Labour MPs know that some of their colleagues will not be back, and some must secretly hope that they lose so they can get rid of Jeremy Corbyn. This is the chance for the UK voter to make up its mind, one way or another, not another minority Government, the UK system does not work when that happens. 

Today's playtime in the House of Commons - Brexit Update 1 - General Election 2019

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 7.34pm post the following, " Government will not bring Withdrawal Agreement Bill back...No 10 confirms the government will not try to bring the Withdrawal Agreement Bill back to the Commons.  It comes after the Lib Dems and SNP said they wouldn't vote for a December election tomorrow unless the prime minister committed to dropping the bill. "

Lets Get Real:

What a fiasco today in the HOUSE OF Commons, the PM tried to get a General Election through the Fixed Term Parliament Act, that failed, mostly Labour abstained, thus tomorrow we have a 2nd vote that will only take a majority.  Thus far it looks the SNP is on board, while the Liberal Democrats want to see the details, the above is the main bone of contention, well WAB is in LIMBO, thus see why no reason for not an election.  One does wonder what Labour will do, how many times can they refuse an election before looking like chickens and cowards. It is time for an general election, to end this issue, the UK is tired of the debate, and even this political blogger has had enough. 

Labour to say NO to an election ? - Brexit Update 3 - General Election 2019

Guardian - Live Blog: Reports in its 6.07pm a tweet from ITV's Robert Preston, " It is very clear to me that Labour and other opposition parties will block @BorisJohnson’s 12 December election. So goodness knows what happens. “Taking back control” is what one senior opposition figure just said to me "

Lets Get Real

If the above is accurate then we have a ZOMBIE Parliament that has been take over by the HARD REMAINERS. PM Boris should call a NO CONFIDENCE in himself and get the Party to vote for it, then the House of Commons would have 14 days to find a successor to Boris or there would be an election. Is the House of Commons bubble so gone that MPs have fallen off political reality. Any attempt to place Corbyn in No 10 would lead to political disaster for those MPs who support the move. The nutters have taken over our political system.

Labour and a General Election - Brexit Update 2 - General Election 2019

Sky News - Live Blog: Reports " Labour will back snap election if no-deal 'ruled out' and any Brexit delay 'allows'..Boris Johnson says he wants an election on 12 December but will offer all possible time for scrutiny of his Brexit bill. " 

Lets Get Real:

This is an interesting time for LABOUR, they have turned down 2 general elections requests from PM Boris, in political terms can they afford to say NO AGAIN, they are already being called Turkeys and a ZOMBIE Parliament, will Jeremy Corbyn allow himself to be controlled by the HARD REMAINERS, that would be a disaster for Labour, they would be seen as pure political operatives, who do not trust or believe in the UK voter.  Labour needs a hard think over the weekend.  The Change Party faces losing  all its seats even the Liberal Democrats could be hit, that is why the small Parties, such as Plaid Cymru and SNP are running away from an election.