US Lock and Loaded in the Middle East - Part 3 - Middle East/Persia - Trump Era

Daily Mail: Reports " U.S. aircraft carrier strike group arrives in the Middle East two weeks early but Iran says its missiles can 'easily' hit it as Trump calls report that he wants to avoid war 'fake news' (but hopes it confuses Tehran) "

Lets Get Real:

IF Tehran is not confused, this blog is, the Trump Oval is sending out a confused message, either its a MASTER CLASS in Good Cop/Bad Cop or the Trump Oval is having internal disagreements about the future course in the Middle East.  This is the kind of time when a CLEAR message has to be SENT, and understood, Iran or its Allies might do something they think is low level and the US goes crazy and starts a WAR.  One has to assume that the US through the Swiss are having private talks on how to improve or lower the tension in the Middle East.   The key date will be when the 60 deadline by Tehran comes to and end, and it start the nuclear process to get the bomb, one can assume that Israel and Saudi Arabia will not allow that, and will strike, it would be better if that happened for the US to take action, otherwise Iran would be at WAR with Saudi Arabia and Israel, that really could close down the Persian Gulf. 

The clock is ticking folks, if the Tehran Regime had a strategic mastermind it would see that POTUS wants a better deal than Obama got, thus Iran should consider more limites it can live with while Trump is in the White House.   In many respects time is on their side, all they have to do is get beyond 2020 and there could be a liberal President in the Oval who wants to restart the Obama Deal.   Of course they have to get to 2020, if they go nuclear, ALL BETS ARE OFF. 

Are the American people in the " Dark " over a War with Iran? - Part 2 - Middle East/Persia - Trump Era

Sky News: Reports " US public 'kept in the dark' over possible war with Iran...Amid assertions of an increased threat from Iran, a senator says the US people are getting a "confused and chaotic picture".  "

Lets Get Real:

This is not 1964 and IRAN is not the Vietnam War, in many respects Iran is a greater threat, it has given the UN 60 days to come up with a way around US sanctions.   This has not gone down well with the UN.  If after 60 days the UN has no plan then Tehran goes for the bomb, President Trump will have no choice but to ACT, if he does not ACT, then either Israel or Saudi Arabia, or both could act to prevent an arch enemy becoming a nuclear power.  The US has placed its naval forces in the region to make sure it can strike Iran should Iran make the foolish rush to become a nuclear armed power.   North Korea is BAD ENOUGH, if Iran goes nuclear its neighbours will be on the black market looking for the bomb.

One would hope that backchannel talks are taking place, to lower the tensions, the worry should be if North Korea and Iran from an alliance and go for a mutual track, causing problem for the US in Asia and the Middle East.   The weekend should be interesting, if nothing happens, then the crisis will have passed in till the 60 deadline is reached, after that it's up in the air. 

Trump talks down War with Iran - Middle East/Persia - Trump Era

BBC News: Reports " President Donald Trump 'does not want war with Iran' "

Lets Get Real:

As has been noted by others, Trump as a Candidate did not want to the US to leader of the West, and since taking Office, POTUS has tried to get troops out of warzones, thus the growing tensions with IRAN is out of line with his agenda set in 2016.   It has been reported that the Trump Oval has given the Swiss a number to give to the IRAN should it wish to calm tensions in the region.  A War with Iran would be most costly that the Iraq War of between 2003/11 and would take ground troops compared to the War with Libya under Colonel Gaddafi.  Of a War can start by accident, a Iran general has stated that Iran is on a cusp of a war with the US and the heavy sanctions placed on Iran is hurting the regime and people.

One has to ask the question is a quick and ruthless war in the interest of POTUS before the 2020 election, in 2004 Bush 43 was re-elected even after no WMD was found in Iraq.  A WAR President is more likely to get re-elected if the war is ongoing, the US voter will not want to change horses mid stream.  Also there is the chance that the allies of IRAN could hit US troops or interests in Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq, thus the recent removal of American diplomats from Iraq.  The next few weeks will be very interesting.