Friday, December 11, 2009

Inside Iran

The New York Times: Reports that the protests in Iran has gone beyond the rigged election to the foundation of the state, the NYT writes the following, " demonstrators have made it clear that their target is not just.......... the disputed election......but the entire foundation of Iran’s theocracy. " Thus we come to the nuclear issue, the Government of President Ahmadinejad needs the success of the bomb to keep it in power, thus Iran is in a race to get the bomb before the UN passes tough sanctions, if Ahmadinejad does not have the bomb and quick and the there are tough sanctions or a US Naval Blockade of Iran the regime could fall if it does not have the bomb. The question is will Obama follow through and enforce UN sanctions, what if Russia and China just wont go along, what will Obama do, he cant dither or Israel will take action, but can the Obama ego take being the same club as Bush 43. If Israel sees weak sanctions they will strike, Obama can dither but he will have to support Israel or the Congress will over rule him, at the end of the day the Israeli lobby is lot more powerful than the Chicago run West Wing. Lets be honest Obama cant use the race card on Israel. Harsh but true folks, just go and ask Bill Clinton. Thus 2010 should be quite interesting folks, advice to drivers, make sure you have enough petrol in your car, the price of crude Oil could go through the roof.

Time for sanctions on Iran - France

BBC News: Reports on the call by France for the UN to place sanctions on Iran due to its move to become a nuclear armed Power. As stated in previous post, the UK Telegraph reports that Iran is seeking special equipmenet from Taiwan that would allow it to be a nuclear armed power, also President Obama stated the following in his speech in Norway, " I -- like any head of state -- reserve the right to act unilaterally if necessary to defend my nation. .........But it is also incumbent upon all of us to insist that nations like Iran and North Korea do not game the system. Those who claim to respect international law cannot avert their eyes when those laws are flouted. Those who care for their own security cannot ignore the danger of an arms race in the Middle East or East Asia. Those who seek peace cannot stand idly by as nations arm themselves for nuclear war. " Thus it could be argued that if Iran goes not agree to the UN deal and the sanctions do not work this only leaves two options, the acceptance by the UN and USA that Iran will join the nuclear club or Israel and the USA will take military action. The clock is heading close to actions folks, Obama in his own way could be telling the world that 2010 could make the Cuban Missile Crisis look like happy hour. Lets hope that he is no JFK, Kennedy sold out Turkey in 1962, a NATO ally, lets hope Obama does not sell out Israel, his record is not great, just ask Poland and the Czech Republic. The question is does Iran really want a showdown, in a crisis the people of Iran would support the government, thus an end to the protests on the streets of Tehran, it will be interesting to see if Iran makes the same mistake as Iraq in 2003 and think the USA will not take action, its either USA or Israel, there is not third way folks, not in this case, interesting times ahead folks.