Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Iran

Since the revolution in Iran in 1979, Iran lets be very blunt has been a pain in backside and its getting worse, a nuclear armed Iran is something Israel and the USA can and will not let happen. Here are some interesting articles on the Subject:


Bush in Warning to Iran, The President stated he would protect the Iraq and American Troops there from the threat of Iran. Iran of late gets a lot of attention from the Bush White House, with his polls in the tank, the President could argue that he has nothing to lose and Iran has to be stopped from going nuclear. A hard quick strike on their nuclear development would save Israel from taking action. The Democrats would keep quiet, Israel security is one thing even liberal Democrats cant be seen to be placing in threat.


Europe Slow Again
, the slow pace of European reaction to the demand from the USA to cut economic ties with Iran shows how slow Europe reacts to a threat, so slow one has to ask if it has learnt anything from the 1930s period. The NYT states the following, " European officials argue that beyond the political and business interests in Europe are legal problems, because European governments lack the tools used by the Treasury Department under various American statutes to freeze assets or block transactions based on secret intelligence information. " The slow reaction could lead to military action, well will Europe learn.

New Hampshire

If and this is a capital IF, Clinton lost in Iowa it would come down to New Hampshire, this would be make or break time, here is a Poll from the cbs4boston.com

On the Democratic Side:

Clinton 40 %

Obama 25 %

Edwards 23 %

If Edwards could win Iowa and Obama come in second, Hillary would have a tough fight in New Hampshire. As said it is a very very Big IF.

On the Republican Side:

Giuliani 33 %

McCain 32 %

Romney 21 %

The Republican Race for political geeks might just be the better race to cover, the points are so close, more of a horse race.

2008 Election Polls

The Latest Presidential Polls, Quinnipiac University Poll: Ohio

Senator Hillary Clinton leads her Democratic rivals, here are the figures: Democratic Voters:

Clinton 38 %
Obama 13 %
Edwards 11 %
Gore 6 %

It should be noted we are year out, as Harold Wilson once said and it is always true of Politics, A WEEK IS A LONG TIME IN POLITICS.

On the Republican side we have the following Results:

Giuliani 30 %
McCain 22 %
Gingrich 11 %
Romney 4 %

Views has this feeling that the fight could really be between Romney who try and appeal to the Republican base and McCain who needs to work on the base for them to trust him. Giuliani might a heroic figure after 9/11 might just have to much personal baggage and his politics could be to much in the centre for the Republican base.

The General Election Match Up: Views found these polls interesting, even with Iraq, Hillary Clinton leads all her Republican opponents but not by much. Here are the Figures:

Clinton 46% - McCain 42%
46% - Giuliani 43%
52 - Romney 31% ( Romney at early stages here )

If Clinton cant get over 50% with McCain or Giuliani she cant win the White House, and she is way behind the field in Iowa, Edwards seem to have moved there since 2004, Senator Hillary Clinton is not Bill Clinton, if she cant win Iowa she might be finished before we get to NH.

On the Republican side the only winning combination is as follows:

McCain 41 % - 38 % Obama. Views sees Obama as another John Edwards from 2004, he needs a few more years in the Senate.