New Gallup Poll

Gallup: Has a interesting poll, with three different versions of the poll, registered voters, likely voters and those voters that are new to the process. The second poll of likely voters feels right and closer to the truth. This Poll finds the following, Obama 50% - McCain 46%. In New Hampshire I was burned, the voters lied to the pollsters. This could be a very close race, a long night, think 2000. I still think Obama will win, a narrow win but he could be drag on the races lower down the ballot. The idea is that the Democrats will win big when it comes to Congress. In 2000 President George W. Bush had the Presidency and Congress, will the American voter want to give all the power to Democrats. It can be postulated that they might vote for McCain for President and vote for a Democrat for Congress or the other way around. McCain needs to step up the attack, when it comes to election, he is already being called a racist, what is there to lose, McCain should start with the Pastor of Obama. Make Obama look like a lier or a fool when he states he didn't know that his Pastor was Anti - American and a Racist to boot. McCain has to understand that the left will destroy him, they don't care they want Obama win.

Market Closed ?

The Times: Reports that the Government will take over the Royal Bank of Scotland and HBOS, the paper of record reports the following " The scale of the fundraising could lead to trading at the London stock market being suspended. " . It could be argued that to preserve the Western Economy, all Markets should be closed down in the USA and Europe, then all banks and financial institutions should be told to give their governments all the information they have on their bad debts. Then the G7 should meet to thrash out a new economic system for the West. It is without doubt that this economic 9/11 will have effect for years on the Western economy. The days of " Greed is Good " are well and truly over, well will look back on those days as shown in the film Wall Street as the good old days. This new world will see the Government in charge of the Western economy and banks, lets recall the 1970s folks, we might one day want to go back to the days of Wall Street, what ever you think of the justice of it, some people are rich and other are not, as JFK once stated, life is not fair! The Western way of business is going to change, what government will allow a business to go under when its given hundred of billion dollars to Wall Street or the banks, Reagan would not be happy, the Government is back in charge.

Major Attack by the Taleban

The Times: Reports a major attack by the Taleban on British forces has been prevented in Helmand Province in Afghanistan. The terrorist read the news, they can see that the UK and the USA are in a financial mess, an economic 9/11. If your a clever terrorist what do you do in Afghanistan, force more troops to be sent to Afghanistan, the terrorist have the badlands of the Pakistan and Afghanistan border. The terrorist can come over the border, plan a major attack, attack and then get out over the border. If Western troops go after the terrorists the government of Pakistan could fall, Pakistan is a nuclear power, thus any action on the lands of Pakistan has to be done with their approval and support. The War in Afghanistan is going to be long and costly, in both money and soldiers.

The Sunday Polls

Lets have a look at the Sunday Polls folks.

Reuters/Zogby: This finds Obama leading by six percent. As stated in previous post this sounds like the right level of lead if one discounts those that tell Pollsters they will vote for Obama but don't at end of the day. The poll finds the following, Obama 49% - McCain 43%. Lets be brutal, lets postulate that that the lead is less, lets cut the lead in half to three percent, as long as he gets over 51% Obama will be the next President of the United States.

Rasmussen: As with Zogby, Rasmussen has a six point lead for Obama. The poll finds the following, Obama 51% - McCain 45%. It can be argued that this race is over, it is time to think what an early Obama Administration will look like and what kind of Foreign Policy track he will take with Afghanistan and Iraq. In Iraq he has a timetable of around 16 months to get the troops out, with the economic crisis he should think of getting the troops out early, on Afghanistan he needs a surge, but Afghanistan will be a long War. If and when Obama leaves Iraq, Afghanistan will become the focus of his Administration, lets recall more Western soldiers have been killed in Afghanistan than Iraq of late. Pakistan will come to the fore front, Obama has stated he will use troops to go in to the sovereign lands of Pakistan. If this is followed through in early Obama Administration, expect riots around Pakistan, the government could fall, a terrorist supporting government could come in to power. It should be noted that just because Obama gets elected, the world will turn nice over night.

Polling the 08 Race

The New York Times: A very interesting article on the 08 polls. Are they accurate, thus a Obama win or are voters not telling the truth, a close race, even a McCain win. As mention on this blog, Obama needs a double digit lead to offset those that lie to the pollsters. Thus Obama in some polls has a ten to eleven percent lead. If you discount around five to six percent he still wins by five percent. But folks lets not forget New Hampshire, some polls has Obama over fifteen percent and he still lost. One whole its for Obama to lose not for McCain to win. Read of the Day.

Money and Banks

BBC News: Reports that the bailout of banks will start on Monday. It will be interesting to see how the Market reacts, it would be foolish to make predictions but why not, it can be argued that with the bank bailout in the UK and the USA, Dow Jones and FTSE should raise as Western Government have taking over the banking structure all but name. Expect heavy trading up on Monday.