Tuesday, September 19, 2006

The Prediction for the American Mid Term Elections

In the business of political predictions, it is easier to hold your fire and wait till a few days or hours before the Polls close to make you views open to the public. Views has a different idea, you place you neck on the chopping block and take a risk. The latest Gallup Poll has Bush on 44% approval rating, 51% negative; this has followed a trend in political polls with the President in the mid 40s. The question has to be asked why the President is making such an improvement when in the past few months his ratings have been to used a very accurate phrase in the toilet.

Thus we have the following issues, the threat from Terrorism, the plot was that uncovered in August in London, the anniversary of 9/11, this had reminded Americans that the United States has not been attacked since, while there have been attacks in Spain and London. The cost of Gas or Petrol for cars has gone down, while the Prices have gone down the President’s approval rating have gone up. The President has bought the major negative of Iraq and placed it in the context of the War on Terrorism, the Democrats argue that it is a separate issue but a new Poll by Fox show that the War has 51% support compared to 44%. The WAR ON TERROR is in Iraq, that is where its fate will be decided, however much Democrats want a new policy it is seen as cutting and running, and being seen as weak on Foreign Policy is not good for Democrats.

At this present time we have a debate about how to deal with Islamic Terrorists, the Democrats see this as an issue they can use as Senator John McCain is opposed to the severe treatment that the President wants to allow the CIA to use, it worked on Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and helped prevent attack on the United States. The President has stated that if the Senate does not allow such measures they will be stopped, one can only imagine should another attack take place and it is found that the information could have been found if severe treatment has been used, McCain would be finished as a contender for the Republican nomination in 2008. What ever the United States Supreme Court thinks, Al Qaeda are Islamic Terrorists not the Vietcong and this is not Vietnam. It can be argued as Ronald Reagan stated in 1976 about the then USSR, there can only be one winner and the loser has to be Al Qaeda and it’s franchise operation, they have to be destroyed or they will try and destroy the West and its Liberal Democracy, take care of business first then argue about civil liberties, Liberals seem to have this view that theory matters more than the security of the individual. The American public seem to have got the idea before the leaders of the Democratic Party and some Liberal Senators in the United States Senate, who are there to protect the people of the United States not to care what the rest of the world thinks about its use of severe treatment to protect the country.

Thus we come to Prediction time, as to the United States Senate, the general views is that the Republicans will hold this chamber. I think it will be lot closer than people think, but the Republicans will hold it by 1 or 2 seats. As to the House of Representatives, the generic polls on who the American people would vote for have come a lot closer, as from my previous Blog, three points difference in favour of the Democrats, if that carries on the Democrats would be lucky to win any seats it has been stated by political writers, but here is VIEWS prediction, the Republicans will hold the Chamber by Six seats.