Wednesday, April 23, 2014

How Mistakes in a Crisis can lead to conflict - Ukraine Crisis Latest 3


Lets Get Real: 

Lets hope the Russian military is fully under the control of the Kremlin, one does not want to see some hotshot Russian airman try something while in the air and this can be miss read by a Western fighter, it could lead to serious mistakes and lead to another Cuban Missile Crisis. This is the risk that Putin is taking, the more he pushes the chance of something going wrong either on the ground or in the air, the West will react if A NATO Country comes under threat.   One would assume that Obama and Putin have a back channel envoy that they both trust who can tell the other that there are REAL red lines, otherwise a crisis in the Ukraine could get out of hand quite fast, there are native Russians in the Baltic States and Poland. 

The Russian Bear and its VIEW of the West - Ukraine Crisis Latest 2


Lets Get Real:

It is interesting in the BBC Drama 37 Days, on the events leading up to WW1, the British Foreign Secretary states the World order can not work if the players can not even agree on night and day, no this blog is not stating we are heading for that end, one doubts that even Putin is that crazy or Obama has the backbone if it got there, but what we face over the next few days and weeks or years is the growing isolation of Russia, the return to a new Cold War 2, the policy of containment for the USSR WILL get a upgrade for Russia, the question is not what the West will DO, is what Putin will do, how will he react to the isolation, how will the international economy, will Russia cause problems in previous joint co - operation schemes with the US, such as Afghanistan and Space.   The BIG question is WHAT kind of action will Putin take in the Ukraine, will he go for the entire Country or just the East, how will the US and EU react, the Great Game just got a new round, interesting. 

New Russian Threat to the Ukraine - Ukraine Crisis Latest


Lets Get Real:

The Kremlin might be following a policy of boring people to death with this subject, either Russia gets off his backside and follows through with its constant threat or backs off, the Russian troops on the border between the Ukraine and Russia must be bored rigid with the on going alert, it is as if Putin is not quite sure of the reaction, he was sure that the West would not react with the Crimea, the Ukraine would be another matter, the World order after the fall of the USSR would become in to question, also this would bring Russia very close to Poland, an age old enemy, who happens to be part of NATO.   Even a limited strike on East Ukraine could backfire, the West of Ukraine would come under the protection of the West, thus moving the West closer to Russia, something Putin does not want, lets hope the master chess player has not out played himself in this case.