Friday, June 14, 2013

NYT and Obama/Syria - Syrian Update 4


Lets Get Real:

Thus the NYT is no fan of Bill Clinton, the uber liberal NYT in its heart of hearts after Iraq does not want the US to take ANY military action, but even the pure liberal NYT gets the fact that President Obama boxed himself in with his red line comment over Syria, unlike Libya the Oval can not lead from behind when it comes to Syria, if the US is going ALL IN, the Oval has to the public face of this action, it can not be down to UK PM Cameron and President Hollande of France, the disaster that is the Syrian Civil War is having regional results that could lead to the pro Western Government of Jordan to fall, for Lebanon to return to Civil War and we have seen Turkey having its own internal problems, the over million refugees of Syria has spread over the region, they are causing internal problems, if Assad WINS, the refugees might never go home, thus more pressure for Oval to deal with the Assad problem.   The Oval might have to risk losing the uber liberal NYT, that could make him a great President, so what will it be Mr President, greatness or coffee with the NYT. 

The Clinton Factor - Syrian Civil War - Syrian Update 3

CNN - Politics: Reports on remarks by former President Bill Clinton, the former President stated that the US should be more active in Syria, these remarks were before the latest developments.

Lets Get Real:

Lets be clear folks, Bill Clinton can not stand President Obama, why should he, the 08 Campaign called him a racist, Bill Clinton is a lot of things, but he is no racist, it has been argued that he was in fact was the first Black President, as he understands and enjoys black culture, thus the race card attack must have hurt, also his wife when she become Secretary of State was not part on the Kitchen Cabinet, as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton pressed to Oval to take more forceful action in Syria, she did not get her way.   The latest move by the Oval to support the Syrian rebels is down the ground won by the Assad Regime, and the critical reaction of Western allies to the lack of US action, but it would be interesting know how the Oval reacted to a critic of a policy by a former President, a President  who dealt with Bosnia after years of doing nothing, and was marched in to Kosovo by the UK PM Tony Blair, at least Clinton acted, also the Oval must be afraid that the Clinton Camp will start to take political shots at the Oval as way to distance itself from the Oval should Obama's polls tank over the next three years.   Politics at its heart can be quite personal, does President Obama want to make Clinton the wise old man of US Foreign Policy while he seen as weak, another Carter, one has doubts folks. 

A No Fly Zone for Syria ? - Syrian Update 2

Guardian: Reports the following on the US policy change towards Syria, " Washington in talks with allies over radical options including no-fly zone as plan for small arms support meets lukewarm reaction  ".

Lets Get Real:

The Oval has a choice, if the Oval is really going to support the rebels and overthrow Assad he has to expect to lose the liberal base, you can not be a liberal at home and abroad, it  is one or the other, and since the Oval stated that the use of chemical weapons would be a red line for the US, well the Oval has boxed itself in, it has to follow through, small arms will not cut it, a couple of years ago it might have helped, NOT NOW, the place is awash with small weapons, the secular rebels need the big stuff, either trained or for the US to take down Syrian combat planes.   The Oval if it goes down this road will need the support of the Republicans, the Oval can not lead from behind as in Libya, the Civil War in Syria is far to complex for that, you have a fight with the Islamic faith, you have a proxy War between Iran and the US/West, you have Russians wanting to keep their Naval base, thus embers of the Cold War,  getting rid of Assad if the US IS ALL IN, is just the first problem, you then have to get the Western supporting rebels to take down the Al Qaeda supporting terrorists, then make nice with the Russians, let them keep their base, then try to make sure Iran does not cause more deaths, and yes deal with the Middle East Peace Process, that is enough for the last three years of the Obama Term.   Thus Syria could define the Obama 2nd term folks, well in till the Iran Crisis. 

President Obama and Syria - Syrian Update

The White House: Here is the most important part of the Statement folks, " Following a deliberative review, our intelligence community assesses that the Assad regime has used chemical weapons, including the nerve agent sarin, on a small scale against the opposition multiple times in the last year.  Our intelligence community has high confidence in that assessment given multiple, independent streams of information.  The intelligence community estimates that 100 to 150 people have died from detected chemical weapons attacks in Syria to date; however, casualty data is likely incomplete.  While the lethality of these attacks make up only a small portion of the catastrophic loss of life in Syria, which now stands at more than 90,000 deaths, the use of chemical weapons violates international norms and crosses clear red lines that have existed within the international community for decades. We believe that the Assad regime maintains control of these weapons.  We have no reliable, corroborated reporting to indicate that the opposition in Syria has acquired or used chemical weapons.  ".

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks we have reached S Day, the day the Obama Oval has tried to avoid like the plague, its allies, the UK and France have been saying for weeks that Assad has used chemical weapons, so what has changed if you have not been not following the Syrian Civil War, quite simple folks, the Syrian Rebels are within a breath of losing, with the support of Iran, Russia and  Hezbollah the Assad Regime could WIN, this would be a disaster for the US, Israel and the Region.    Thus this latest U - turn by the Oval is a fig leaf, so what next folks, well at its most basic the Oval has to impose a no fly zone over rebel cities and areas, it has to either arm the rebels with heavy weapons and get US, UK and French Special Forces to back up the rebels and fast folks.   The Russians are already saying this is a mistake, one has doubts that they would ever had placed pressure on Assad to leave, they need their only warm water port, and Iran needs Assad to threaten Israel.   Thus if the OVAL really means action, it has to be 100%, no half measures, no weasel words, the Oval can not lose, Obama can not lose, if he fails in Syria, the Tehran Regime will just go nuclear because they are not afraid of the Oval, this will force Israel to ACT, and that WAR the Oval does not want, thus best advice to Oval, win this for the Gipper and yourself, failure is not a option.