IBD/TIPP: Reports a close race in their tracking poll, the poll finds the following, Obama 47% - McCain 45%. As IBD/TIPP had the closes poll to the actual result the last time around in 2004, this is very interesting, Obama well under 50%, also what is also interesting is those that are not sure, that stand at 9%. If those that are not sure go for McCain, this could be a very close race, Obama will win but it will be close. If McCain can keep it close then it should help Republicans down the ballot. The reader will of course ask is this a Conservative looking for some good news, the answer is yes and no, in this poll the race is closer but Obama is still ahead, and have stated that Obama will in, but from a political junkie point of view it will be interesting to see which pollster gets the right result. Will IBD/TIPP get it right for the second time or are the other pollsters right. A good election night is always close, a landslide for Obama will make it a long night for McCain but the rest of us get to bed early. A close race is lot more fun to watch, just ask any one who went through 2000.
Sunday, November 02, 2008
Obama 53% - McCain 47% ( Prediction )
Lets have a look at the latest polls. Lets see how early this race will be over on Tuesday.
Rasumssen: Reports a 5% lead for Obama. The poll finds the following, Obama 51% - McCain 46%. The five to six percent mark seems to be the Obama point win over McCain. It could get closer due to the Bradley Effect, white voters who say they will vote for Obama but don't because of race. Lets hope we can bury the Bradley Effect, it would better for Obama to win by double digits than for people to vote for McCain because of race. It easy to vote against Obama because he is Liberal, tax hiker, odd connections, etc, but to vote against him because of the colour of skin is wrong in the 21st Century. Lets have a fair election voters.
The Diageo/Hotline: Reports a 5% lead for Obama over McCain. The Poll finds the following, Obama 50% - McCain 45%. If that was the final result it would be a good show for McCain, the Republicans have had to deal with Bush as President, lowest approval for any President, two Wars, Iraq and Afghanistan and the economic 9/11. On the whole McCain has done his best in a bad field to fight.
Reuters/Zogby: Reports a 6% lead by Obama over McCain. The Poll finds the following, Obama 50% - McCain 44%. I recall in Indiana Zogby had Obama winning by 2%, at the end of the day Hillary Clinton won by 2%. If you use that example then the race between Obama and McCain could be down to 2% margin of victory for Obama. If it did come down to a close race, lets see Obama 50% - McCain 48%, this would be good for McCain, it would not be a blowout as some of the polls are suggesting, also it might help down the ballot paper with Congressional Races.
RCP ( Average of Polls ): Reports on the Average of Polls, Obama 50.4% - McCain 43.7%. This gives Obama a 6.7% lead over McCain. As I have predicted a six percent win by Obama for weeks now, this would fall in to my area of prediction. It can be argued that the Obama will have long coat tails, thus a big increase of Democrats in the House and Senate. The downside of that is of course if the economy goes down the toilet next year under Obama he and the Democrats will have no one else to blame.
Rasumssen: Reports a 5% lead for Obama. The poll finds the following, Obama 51% - McCain 46%. The five to six percent mark seems to be the Obama point win over McCain. It could get closer due to the Bradley Effect, white voters who say they will vote for Obama but don't because of race. Lets hope we can bury the Bradley Effect, it would better for Obama to win by double digits than for people to vote for McCain because of race. It easy to vote against Obama because he is Liberal, tax hiker, odd connections, etc, but to vote against him because of the colour of skin is wrong in the 21st Century. Lets have a fair election voters.
The Diageo/Hotline: Reports a 5% lead for Obama over McCain. The Poll finds the following, Obama 50% - McCain 45%. If that was the final result it would be a good show for McCain, the Republicans have had to deal with Bush as President, lowest approval for any President, two Wars, Iraq and Afghanistan and the economic 9/11. On the whole McCain has done his best in a bad field to fight.
Reuters/Zogby: Reports a 6% lead by Obama over McCain. The Poll finds the following, Obama 50% - McCain 44%. I recall in Indiana Zogby had Obama winning by 2%, at the end of the day Hillary Clinton won by 2%. If you use that example then the race between Obama and McCain could be down to 2% margin of victory for Obama. If it did come down to a close race, lets see Obama 50% - McCain 48%, this would be good for McCain, it would not be a blowout as some of the polls are suggesting, also it might help down the ballot paper with Congressional Races.
08 Race - Next 2012
This Presidential Race has been going on so long, it seems like forever, its nearly over, Obama going to win and he is going to get a Democratic Congress. Its odd the the two years of this race has been fun in away if your a political junkie but I WANT THIS OVER. I want to start on the Obama Cabinet and his Foreign Policy. Its over early Tuesday, there is a God.
Reality Check !
Washington Post: One gets the feeling that the MSM ( Main Stream Media ) is now moving beyond a Obama win to the reality of the World with a President Obama. At the end of they day they are reporters, cynical is what they breath. Thus this article if read by Obama should bring him down to earth. It looks at the problems that will be faced by a Obama Administration from Iraq to the Economy. The article states the following, its the reality that Obama will face in the Oval Office, " The risks of failure will be huge; the opportunities for breakthroughs will be limited. " The transition period will show if Obama is really understand the problems he will face, who will place at State and Defence. The Obama Administration will have to wait in till January 20, 2009. As a old British PM once stated to a minister as to what could go wrong, " Events, Events ". Thus its a long time between November and January, Iraq might blow up, Afghanistan could have a Tet offensive type attack, Iran could go nuclear, Israel could attack Iran. Obama wanted the job well all these problems will be his next year.
Iraq - 1 Test for Obama
LA Times: Interesting article in the Liberal Times, how Iraq could be the first test for Obama, as the article points out Iran and the terrorist have also been listening to Obama thus as the article states, " both the jihadists and the mullahs in Tehran are invested in not just an American withdrawal, but a humiliating one at that. " Thus as the article states it can be expected that the terrorists and Iran will up the violence in Iraq after the election. It could be argued that this will not happen, lets recall President George W. Bush is still in the White House and he has attacked Syria, if Iran over plays it hand Bush could attack Iran or allow Israel to attack. This kind of move would box in Obama. If Israel does attack during the Bush Presidency then Obama will have no choice but to support the move, his base will not be happy, was that the message that Biden was sending out when he stated that Obama would face a International Crisis within the first year.
After Obama becomes President in 2009, all bets are off, then expect the terrorists and Iran to test the President. Obama has to get USA troops out of Iraq for two reasons, the USA economy is in a mess, Iraq needs to carry its own load for security. Also Afghanistan will have some kind of Tet Offensive event, the terrorist will try to see how weak Obama is when faced with a crisis. The Obama Plan as stated in the Campaign it to get combat troops out of Iraq in sixteen months, well it should be faster, also a warning should be sent to Iran, there is a new Administration it can either talk and become part of the International Community or else. The first year of the Obama Administration will be a test for Obama and Western Security.
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