Will Russia DEFAULT on its DEBT ? Tomorrow is Key Day - Russian - Ukraine War - New Cold War 2

Sky News - Live Blog: Reports in its 5.22pm post the following, " Financial world watching to see if Russia will default on its debts...Sky's business presenter Ian King writes that Moscow has some time to avoid the third default in its history.  "

Lets Get Real:

The Russians have defaulted twice before, in 1917 due to the Russian Revolution and in 1998, that was more a technical default and the Russians were bailed out by the IMF then, not this time, and of course it would help the WEST to see Russia default, the West has to place pressure on the Russian people, make their daily lives irksome and difficult, get them out on the street to demonstrate against Putin and his regime.  It will be interesting to see WHAT PUTIND does, he has threatened  to take over the business's that have LEFT Russia due to the Ukraine invasion, that would be a disaster for Russia, than would mean that the WEST could not trust a future Russian Government and the Russian economy would take a hard kick, thus a depression in the long term.  That is why Putin might not take over these industries that have LEFT, he wants to get Russian back to his normal.   The Russian people are going to pay for the action of Putin and Regime, the Ukraine could be his downfall as World War 1 was the downfall of Tsar Nicholas 11 of Russia.

The Greeks Fold - Greek Crisis

Guardian: Reports " The Greek government capitulated on Thursday to demands from its creditors for severe austerity measures in return for a modest debt write-off, raising hopes that a rescue deal could be signed at an emergency meeting of EU leaders on Sunday. "

Lets Get Real:

The Greek crisis is OVER, or seems to be over, how many will bet that Greece never does the real reforms, that the issue will be thrown in the long grass and Germany will take a modest hair cut and the Athens Government will give the PR of doing real reform.  Typical EU fudge and down the road there will be more printing of money and others with their hands out.  At least the PR of Greece is OVER, thank God. 

Greece Lates - Greek Crisis

BBC News - Greece Live: Reports in its 8.50pm post via the WSJ that Greece will give its plan to the EU within the hour. 

Lets Get Real:

The Stock Market is up, they must know something that the rest of us do not, one can assume that a deal is in the works between the EU and Greece.   Lets see how much pain Germany is willing to take with hair cuts to the debts that Germans banks hold of Greek debts.   In return for the cut in debts one can expect that on the PR side the Greeks will say they will do reforms, of course once the news cycle moves the Greeks will do bugger all and it will be to late for the EU to demand reforms.   The next countries with their hands out will be Spain and Italy. 

Greece Crisis - Greek Update

Guardian - Greek Crisis Live: Reports in its 1.54pm post the following,  " While the European Parliament debate was raging, Greece quietly submitted its formal request for a new aid package in an attempt to avoid crashing out of the eurozone.   Finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos has asked for a three-year programme, from the bailout fund (the European Stability Mechanism). And in return, Greece would commit to:“to a comprehensive set of reforms and measures to be implemented in the areas of fiscal sustainability, financial stability, and long-term economic growth.”  "

Lets Get Real:

This is a game, it really depends who has the upper hand in Europe, either France or Germany, the Greeks have promised reform before, and it never happens, the political system is corrupt, paying TAX is an extra option for the Greeks.   If the French push an agreement based on the above then the Euro is doomed, all the Greeks want is for the ECB to bring money.   They will never reform and the problem will come back with extra inflation, does anyone recall the Weimar Republic in Germany, if you print to much money the coinage itself is debased.   If the Euro is for the long term it has to have rules, that means juking the Greeks out, otherwise in the long term the Euro will fail. 

Are Greek Banks under THREAT - Greek Crisis

Guardian - Greek Live: Reports in its 7.16pm the following post on the ECB decision, " And the ECB has maintained the cap on emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) at €89bn, but crucially it has “adjusted” the haircuts it applies to the assets which Greek banks hand over in return for funds.    In simple terms, that probably means the ECB is treating Greek government bonds as riskier, and valuing them as such when it calculates how much liquidity it can provide.  "

Lets Get Real:

The European Central Bank, the lender of last resort can see Spain, Italy and others coming for money if they throw the rule book out to help Greece.    The value of Greek assents has to been in the context of a corrupt political structure, they have gone back on agreements, they play games, and so what is the worth Greek  collateral.  This blog would rather take collateral from the Assad Government in Syria and the Baghdad Government, yes this blog does not trust the Greeks.   The Greek crisis could become a cancer for the whole Euro, this would damage the UK economy, thus it would be better to cut off the damaged part, that is Greece and make sure that the rest of the Euro goes on. Tough outcomes are sometimes hard. 

NO MORE MONEY FROM THE ECB - Greek Crisis

ECB: Press release:  " ELA to Greek banks maintained

• Emergency liquidity assistance maintained at 26 June 2015 level
• Haircuts on collateral for ELA adjusted
• Governing Council closely monitoring situation in financial markets

The Governing Council of the European Central Bank decided today to maintain the provision of emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) to Greek banks at the level decided on 26 June 2015 after discussing a proposal from the Bank of Greece.

ELA can only be provided against sufficient collateral.

The financial situation of the Hellenic Republic has an impact on Greek banks since the collateral they use in ELA relies to a significant extent on government-linked assets.

In this context, the Governing Council decided today to adjust the haircuts on collateral accepted by the Bank of Greece for ELA.

The Governing Council is closely monitoring the situation in financial markets and the potential implications for the monetary policy stance and for the balance of risks to price stability in the euro area. The Governing Council is determined to use all the instruments available within its mandate.  "

Lets Get Real: 

BBC News - Greece Live: Reports in its 7.04pm post the following on the above, " The European Central Bank (ECB) will not be adjusting the amount of funding available to Greek banks.. "  In other words the Greek banks will need to get a new rich sugar daddy to keep them going, could this allow Russia to come to the support of the Greeks, that would make Putin even more of a threat to the EU and the West. 

Germany and Greece - Greece Crisis

Telegraph - Greek Crisis Live: Reports the following on the visit to Paris, France of Germany's Chancellor Merkel, " The German Chancellor is done with dinner and given a very short statement.   She says she awaits new reform plans from Mr Tsipras tomorrow, but says now is not the time to talk of new deals as government's are still reacting to last night's vote. "

Lets Get Real:

It is clear that Chancellor Merkel is not putting HER head on the line to save Greece at the expense of her own political future, that is the problem with any new call for a bailout of Greece, there are other leaders within Euro who will have to go back to their Parliaments to ask for more money for Greece, also there elections coming up in Spain, any relaxing of the Euro rules would mean that the extreme left could run on anti austerity message and get the Germans to pay the cost.   Thus expect tense days ahead, Germany is no push over, the Chancellor has to worry what her own Party might think if she tries to push another Greek bailout. 

Shares will tank tomorrow - Greek Crisis

Telegraph - Greek Crisis Live: Reports in its 8.10pm post the following, " Markets have remained reasonably sanguine about Grexit up until now. But expect tomorrow to be a day of flight for equity investors... "

Lets Get Real:

The first signs should be the Asia markets, it can be expected with the trouble with China markets to add to the pressure, the UK and US markets should see a sell off due to the Asian results and the latest news from the EU and Greece.   The Greeks are deluded if they think that their banks will be open on Tuesday, they will be lucky if they are opened at the end of the week.   As stated the final decision is down to the ECB, do they throw out their tough rules on lending or do they throw the rules out of the window.   The Germans might have problems with the French, the French left it can be argued has more in common with the Greek left than mainstream French politics.   Also the Countries that have done austerity will be asking why Greece is given a pass when they went through tough economic reform.   Interesting days ahead. 

Greek PM looks for political lifeboat - Greece Crisis

Guardian - Greek Crisis Live: Reports in its 8.10pm post the following, " Greek television are reporting that Alexis Tsipras has spoken with several European leaders, starting with the French president Francois Hollande.    There are also suggestions that ECB president Mario Draghi has also been contacted.  "

Lets Get Rea:

The Greek PM will try to split France from Germany, also Italy, the government in Paris is left wing, thus one can expect that the Greek PM will play that up, one doubt that Paris will go against the will of Germany, it knows who has the cash in that relationship.    The European Central Bank could decide the fate of Greece, if the Bank does not give more money to the Greek banks they will go bust, thus the call for the return of the Greeks to a native currency.   The EU/IMF will not allow themselves to be blackmailed by Athens, there are tough rules for the problem of Athens, if the above throw them out then Spain and Italy will be next, then the whole system would go bankrupt.  Time for the Germans to stand tough against Greece. 

The Result of the Greek Referendum - Greek Crisis

BBC News - Greece Live: Reports the following it its 7.25pm post, " The Greek government will have a battle on its hands to persuade the Eurogroup to meet urgently. Reuters reports there are no plans for an emergency meeting of eurozone finance ministers in response to the 'No' vote. "No way. (The ministers) would not know what to discuss."

It is worth remembering that Greece's prime minister called the vote while his negotiators were still trying to eke out a deal in Brussels. "

Lets Get Real:

The Greeks might find that the Referendum was the easy thing to get pass, the German political class and the voters do not want to to get their wallets out to bailout the Greeks, the Greeks have to be thrown out of the Euro, its a murky toilet with no clean water in sight.   The Greek economic system needs a total reform from the role of the State to when people retire.  This will be harsh on the Greek in the short term, but in the long run it will benefit Greece. 

The Greek Referendum Vote - Greek Crisis

The New York Times: Reports on PM Tsipras broadcast to the Greek Nation, " Mr. Tsipras went on public television Wednesday afternoon, telling Greeks that they should vote no on the referendum to improve his negotiating position. "

Lets Get Real:

The Greek PM is bonkers, if the Greek people vote NO on July 5th they are out of the Euro even the EU.   The Germans will not put up with any more BS from the Athens or its PM.   The Germans are fed up with the Greeks, if the Greeks are not insulting them, the have their hand out for more money.    It seems that the Greek government and half the population are not living in the REAL WORLD.    The Greeks have to understand that they are owned by the Germans, without German Euros the Greeks would be international beggars, and why should the German tax payer pay for the political promises of a left wing government in Greece.   It time for the Greeks to find their classical dignity before its to late, VOTE YES ON THE 5TH. 

Germany on Greece - Greek Crisis

Guardian: Reports " Berlin blasts Tsipras for 'seeking scapegoats outside own ranks'..Criticism of Greek prime minister reinforces view that Germany might refuse to negotiate with Syriza administration on rescue package until after referendum  "

Lets Get Real:

One does not blame the Germans, the German Chancellor faces going back to the German Parliament and asking for more money for Greece, while the leadership of Greece has been very abusive about Germany, bringing up the Second War War as a way to hammer the Germans.   The German tax payer can not pay the pills for the left wing government in Greece, if they start doing that there will be calls from other Countries for the Germans to pay for the political promises of left wing parties.   The Greeks have to learn a hard lesson,  the days of the generous welfare state is over, the Greeks have to work for every Euro, pensions have to be be limited, people will get hurt, that is a fact of life. Grow Up Greeks. 

The US and the Greek Crisis - Greek Update

BBC News - Greece Live: Reports in its 7.15pm post the following, " The White House believes all those involved in the Greek crisis want the country to stay in the eurozone, spokesman Josh Earnest tells reporters on Air Force One today  "

Lets Get Real:

There are two reasons the White House want the Greek crisis over, the first is that people will notice that the US with its debt is heading the way of Greece, and the bank manager that US has is China, the vary same Country that wants to expand in Asia, while the Obama Administrations turns it attention to Asia for economic development and for its defence posture,    The other reason is the worry of the unknowns, what if Greece falls apart, how will that touch other economic markets and how much of a hit will the West in the shape of the US take, thus real and political reasons for US when it comes to Greece.     The problem faced by the US is that no one takes Obama as a heavy hitter, he is seen as weak and deluded to be honest, thus what ever influence US had in Europe is gone due to President Obama. 

No Referendum in Greece ? - Greek Crisis

Guardian - Greece Live: Reports in its 8.46pm post the following, " Greek deputy prime minister Yannis Dragasakis has told state-run TV in the last few minutes that the government may not go ahead with the referendum, ....His statement may well set the ball in motion - but it is not clear how the government will stop its vote. "

Lets Get Real:

AS of this moment this blog is still not sure if there will be a Greek referendum, which way the Greek government will tell the voters to vote and there is that hope for a new bailout.   No wonder the Germans are fed up, this blogger has zero interest in what comes out of Athens, its confused, messy and not something the Classic Greeks would have understood or approved off, it makes Greece look a fools Republic.    The Greeks need  grown ups in charge, the left has shown that it can not lead or run a government, the Greeks need a new government and fast.   Always VOTE Conservative dear Greek voter. 

GERMANS NO to New Greek Bailout Request- Greek Crisis

Daily Mail: Reports " On your bike! Angela Merkel rules out further negotiations with Greece as PM Tsipras and his motorcycle-loving finance minister submit 11th-hour rescue bid proposal  "

Lets Get Real:

The Germans are right to SAY NO to Greece, for the money that Germany has thrown at Greece ALL it gets is abuse and talk about World War 2, the left wing Greek government knows it is in trouble, it seems that the Greeks fav keeping the Euro, it looks like they will vote YES to the demands of the EU/IMF, that would mean that they would reject the NO view of the Government in Athens.   There needs to be fresh elections, the Greeks have to elect a government that will do as it is told by the EU/IMF, Greece has had its fun time at putting two fingers up to the Germans, now they must OBEY the EU/IMF/GERMANY. 

The New Greek Trojan Horse - Greek Crisis

BBC News: Reports " The Greek government has requested a new bailout deal from the eurozone, just hours before it must repay €1.6bn (£1.1bn) to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). "

Lets Get Real:

The Greeks to give them their due are always gaming the system, they call a national referendum out of their backside at the last minute, threaten Court action and now request another bailout.   The heros of classic Greece must be laughing from the heavens.   The Greeks IMF/EU should not fall for this trick, they should throw Greece out and keep Greece out, otherwise its good money being thrown down the toilet, in fact it would be cheaper just to burn German Euros outside the German Parliament that give it to the Greeks.  Shame on Greece. 

The Greek Referendum - Greek Crisis

Guardian - Live Blog: Reports in its 8.53pm the following post " ( Greek PM) Tsipras says he will ‘respect the outcome’ of the referendum, and act in accordance with the Greek constitution -- which suggests he’s resign if the public vote Yes.  "

Lets Get Real:

Even since PM Tsipras came to power it has been heading towards this point, the Greek government is not telling the truth to the Greek voter.  If the Greeks vote no they are out of the Euro, if they vote YES then Greece might have a chance in the long term.   As stated by this blog the left always want to tax the rich, if the Greek government had done that first then these latest development could have been avoided.   The Greeks have lived off the welfare state and they no longer see that you have to look after yourself, the EU will not pick up the tap for the elections promises of a left wing government.  Time for Greece to smell the coffee and fast. 

The Greek Government to SUE EU - Greek Crisis

Telegraph: Reports " Greece has threatened to seek a court injunction against the EU institutions, both to block the country's expulsion from the euro and to halt asphyxiation of the banking system. "

Lets Get Real:

One has to give to it to the Greek Government, they will try any strategy to outfox the EU/IMF, it wont work, the Courts would be MAD to be part of this process, and it will annoy the hell out of the EU.   The Greeks need fresh elections, a new conservative government should be formed, one that obeys the EU/IMF and helps Greece in the long term.   The left never know how to deal with an economy, just ask UK voters from 2010 to 2015.   The left just wants to print money and tax the rich.   The UK made a wise choice in 2015, it elected a totally Conservative Government, thus far so good for the Cameron Government. 

The Greeks in Default - Greek Crisis

The Daily Mail: Reports " Greece is NOT going to pay back its 1.6billion Euro loan instalment tomorrow a government official confirms as banks are closed and cash withdrawals limited  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus the Greeks will be in default what ever the IMF call it, they should be treated harshly, otherwise the idea will get formed in other Countries that they can spend on welfare and the German tax payer will pick up the tap, the EU/IMF can not allow the idea to form that Countries can default on their loans and there are no results.    The whole system could be called in to question if the Greeks are let off their debts.   The Euro will not last if the German taxpayer has enough, who else will get their wallet out to bailout the EU.   This economic harshness is needed, there has to be a clear message, if you spend to much as the Gordon Brown government did between 2007/10 there are bad results for the Country and political parties, the UK went through a deep recession and the Labour Party has lost two general elections, one in 2010 and 2015.  

Greece HAS a CHOICE - Yes or No - Greek Crisis

BBC News: Reports " EU leaders have warned Greeks that rejecting creditors' proposals in a snap referendum called for Sunday would mean leaving the euro. "

Lets Get Real:

The Greeks now face a stark choice, either obey the EU in the shape of the Germans or leave the Euro, they can not stay in the Euro and reject the demands of the EU.   The Greeks think that the EU is bluffing, not this time, they have had enough of throwing good money down the toilet.   The Greeks Government created this mess my over promising at the general election and now the face the reality that the EU/IMF have had enough of the game playing by the left wing government.   THUS Greeks listen to your new Masters at the EU/IMF, you have no choice, you never had a choice, you have to give ALL the way, the Germans own you and the land under your feet.