Biden leads in NATIONAL US Polls - US Presidential Election 2020

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 10.48pm post the following, " The latest data puts Biden about 10 points ahead of Trump.  "

Lets Get Real:

If Florida or Ohio go for Biden then we know its OVER on election night, of course if the rust belt States go together, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania go for Biden the its a massive victory for Biden.  The interesting races will be the Senate races, do the voters really want to give the Democrats a CLEAN SWEEP, that would mean that it would be DOWN to the US Supreme Court to stop any massive liberal polices.  One can assume if its  a massive victory for Biden then even Trump will have to go quietly and hand over the power on January 20th 2021.   The question is what he will do between November and January, there  is only one President at a time, and a angry Trump might start a war with Iran and hand it over to Biden.  On the foreign policy side one should expect former Obama officials, also will Biden really be that tough with Russia and North Korea, also of course he will appease Iran, back to the Obama deal with them.  If the US Supreme Courts does revoke OBAMACARE, then Biden will need to build up his support for another attempt.  On the whole one expects a more quiet time from a Biden White House. 

The Republican Delegate Count - Election 2016

Telegraph: Reports that Donald Trump has 621 delegates, while Senator Cruz has 396 and finally Governor Kasich has 138.

Lets Get Real:

There has been discussion on the news networks that you could see joint ticket between Cruz and Kasich or even a Cruz and Rubio with the Rubio delegates supporting Cruz at the Republican Convention.   It looks like that Trump will not be able to reach a majority of the delegates and his recent remarks that there could be riots is troubling.   The question is what will the Republican Establishment do, if they have any power, if this blog recalls the delegates have to vote for the candidate who won their State in the first round, if no candidate has a majority then the delegates are free to vote for someone else.   One can see the lawyers coming in to this, fun if a political nightmare for the Republicans and fun for the Democrats. 

Super Tuesday Result - Election 2016

BBC News: Reports " Trump advances despite Ohio loss, Clinton extends lead "

Lets Get Real:

The fights for the Republican and Democratic nomination is OVER, on the Republican side it will be Donald Trump, on the Democratic side it will be Hillary Clinton.   Although the Donald might not get the actually number delegates needed any idea of a backroom deal that would try to replace him would destroy the Republican Party and hand the Oval Office to HRC.  Both candidates have moved to the general, as the Hill reports the Trump has aired an attack advert on Hillary Clinton, the advert shows how Putin's Russia would be happy with HRC in the Oval as Putin is a stronger leader.  Thus a new phase of the election starts today. 

Is Ted Cruz the new Richard Nixon? - Election 2016

The New York Times: Reports " Senator Ted Cruz is under fire from Senator Marco Rubio’s campaign, which accuses him and his campaign of employing more “dirty tricks” ahead of the Republican caucuses in Hawaii on Tuesday and spreading false rumors that Mr. Rubio is dropping out of the race. "

Lets Get Real:

This is the SECOND time that the Cruz Campaign has played dirty pool, the first time was in Iowa, one can say that Trump is bad, while Cruz recalls Richard Nixon and not in a good way, that how scandals start, lets recall Nixon played dirty pool to get elected in 1968, it ended up in Watergate, what happens if Cruz wins the nomination and wins the Presidnecy, how far would a Cruz Administration go to get its policy ends.   As posted by this blog one really has to see Governor Kasich as the adult in the room, he would make a fine President, the only problem is that Kasich needs to win his home State of Ohio and then have a contested convention.   They are long odds even for this blog. 

Romney On Trump - Aftermath - Election 2016

Guardian - US Politic News:  Reports in its 4.38pm post the following, " Mitt Romney’s speech deriding Republican frontrunner Donald Trump as “a phony” and “a fraud” did his cause more harm than good, according to a poll released this morning...According to Morning Consult, 31% of Republican voters say that they are more likely to vote for the New York billionaire after Romney’s speech, with only one in five Republicans saying that the former Massachusetts governor’s remarks made them less likely to vote for Trump. Forty-three percent told Morning Consult that Romney’s remarks had no bearing at all on their decision. "

Lets Get Real:

Thus those opposed to Trump, and this blog could be counted in that group will have to look at other ways of stopping the Trump Master, as noted in the UK Sunday Times the issue of Trump University seems like a good place to start, in essence peoples invested thousands in the hope of learning from the Donald how to be a good businessman, all they got for the thousands was a picture with a cardboard cut out of the Donald.   The Republican Establishment has to  go after the business dealings of the Donald.   The US voter must be forced to see that the Donald is a con man, that his many business ventures have failed and he does not suffer.    This could be the last chance to STOP the Donald. 

Is Kasich the dark horse candidates of 2016 - Election 2016

The New York Times: Reports " Donald J. Trump is holding a double-digit lead in Michigan ahead of the state’s primary election on Tuesday, but there are signs that Gov. John Kasich is gaining strength.  "

Lets Get Real:

Governor Kasich is the dark horse candidate of the 2016, in the debates he has come across as the adult in the room, but and there is always a but, he needs to win his home State of Ohio, he has said if he losses Ohio he goes back home to being Governor.   Kasich has a good record, he worked in Congress, helped balanced the budget at the national level and in his State, the 1990s are looked back as the good years, you had a Democratic President in Bill Clinton and a Republican House and Senate, and they could work together minus the Republicans trying to Impeach Bill Clinton over an affair with an intern.   The only way that Kasich become the Republican nominee is through a contested Convention, do the Republicans have the courage to nominate someone like Kasich.   The following few days will be interesting. 

Rubio to LOSE Home State - Election 2016

Guardian - US New Live: Reports the following in its 7.20pm post, " Marco Rubio is set to lose his home state, according to a new poll released this afternoon that shows Donald Trump likely to win 38% of Florida’s Republican primary vote with Rubio nabbing 30%..."

Lets Get Real:

This is the moment that Rubio has to show that he is a WINNER, he has to win his home State of Florida, this sames goes for Governor Kasich of Ohio.   IF neither win and Trump comes to win them the race for the Republican nomination will be over,  On the other hand, should both win it means we will see a contest Republican convention, if one recalls the rules, sorry this bit is in the weeds, the delegates have to vote in the first round for the candidate chose by the voters, if no candidate gets a majority then the delegates are fair game for the other candidates to talk too and to get them to change their support.   THUS MARCH 15TH is IMPORTANT. 

How to Appease Obama Style - Iran Crisis

Telegraph: Reports " Obama: Iran nuclear deal will not weaken US support for Israel..

US president lays out “Obama doctrine” of “engagement” with traditional foes from position of military strength, as he pushes back against Republican and Israeli criticism of Iranian framework nuclear deal  "

Lets Get Real:

The Obama doctrine would be good if he had backed it up in Syria, he didn't, he allowed himself to trash his own red lines.   Iran IS NOT China and President Obama is no Richard Nixon, one can only postulate that Richard Nixon looking down on Obama and laughing his backside off at such a weak President.   The Republicans should hit  Obama HARD, make every negative action by Iran an outcome of how Obama has used the policy of appeasement with Tehran.  The Republicans should start to adverts in Florida and Ohio that morph Obama in to Neville Chamberlain.  Every President has his weak spot, with Obama its his ego, the Gulf States and Israel should use their influence and money to undermine the Oval Office, as the saying goes, hubris comes before a fall. 

Obama's State - Ohio - 2012 US Election

RCP: Reports on its average of Ohio State Polls, today we see President Obama leading Governor Romney by 49.6% to 46.6%, a lead of 3%. 

Lets Get Real: 

Thus folks POTUS has either been tied or leading in Ohio, Romney needed Ohio to WIN, that is not going to happen folks, he would have to flip a big BLUE State to win, this blog does not see that with the Obama ground game and Union support.   In many respects this is 2004 all over again, Bush 43 won a 2nd term by taking Ohio, this blog expects the same result in 2012 for Obama.   The bailout of the car industry was a smart political move by the Obama Team, this policy gives Obama four more years.   That is politics folks. 

The Last Polls - 2012 US Election

Lets have a look at the last tracking polls folks of likely voters, lets see who will be shown to be right and who needs to resit their Pollster Exam:

Gallup: In their last poll pre election eve, we see Governor Romney leading President Obama by 49% to 48%, a 1% lead. 

Rasmussen Reports: In their last poll pre election even, we see Governor Romney leading President Obama by 49% to 48%, a 1% lead. 

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks we have a tied race, this looks like 2000 all over again, months of Court cases could be ahead, perfect for this blogger.  But to be realistic, once POTUS takes Ohio its all over, with the exception of Romney taking Pennsylvania, then it could be a new ball game.  This blog has doubts that Romney really has a chance, Pennsylvania on the whole is a BLUE State.  It sems that the Ohio result should come through 12.30am UK Time, thus it should not be that long a night.   Make sure if your up to have plenty of Tea around, it could be a long time, that is the fun of politics. 

The Closing Stages - 2012 US Election

Guardian: Reports the following from the US Election, " Influential New York Times election blogger Nate Silver put Obama's current chances of winning at around 80%. ".

Lets Get Real: 

The blog on the whole does not agree with the uber liberal NYT when it comes to most things, but on this occasion their blogger is right, Romney was no Reagan, this year was not 1980 again!  In many ways this a repeat of 2004 when Bush 43 beat Senator Kerry by winning the State of Ohio.    For Republicans it is time to start looking at 2016, never to early folks, one has to say that the front runners are Governor Christie of NJ and Rep. Ryan.   The US election cycle never ends folks. 

The Polls - 2012 US Election

BBC News: Reports on the average of the latest polls in the US Presidential Election, the latest is a tied race, both President Obama and Governor Romney on 49%.

Lets Get Real:

Honesty is the best policy folks, this blog is looking for a 2000 or 2004 type race, in 2004 it was down to Ohio, as it could be this year, as of now one would have to give Ohio to POTUS, nearly all the polls have him tied or leading in the State.   On the other hand, if its really close race we could see Court Cases as in 2000, even the US Supreme Court coming in to play, that would be fun.   This blog has called the race for Obama, the fun for this blog as stated is looking at the final result and which Pollster got it right.    Lets hope this is not 1948, a lot of us would have big egg on our faces, voters do not to that, it would show that you have been laying through your back teeth or ALL pollsters are bent.   That is the fun of politics folks. 

Obama's State - Ohio - 2012 US Election

CNN Politics: Reports on its CNN/ORC International Poll of Ohio, in this new poll, President Obama leads Governor Romney by 50% to 47%, a 3%. 

Lets Get Real: 

Thus folks above we have the reason that President Obama will get a 2nd term, he leads in Ohio in this Poll, in all the other polls with the exception of one he either leads or is tied with Governor Romney, the Obama team followed the Bill Clinton election book of 1996, define your Opposition before they can define themselves, and in the case of Ohio Obama should start to pay States taxes as he has made sure that he has gone there lot of times over the last four years.   All the Obama Team have to do on Tuesday is not mess up their ground game to get their voters to the polls and make sure they do not lose a big blue State that would cover the loss of Ohio for Romney.   Lets see what the next four years bring, this blog can promise that in 2016 the Democrats will be running as far as they can from Obama, the idea that VP Biden is a candidate for 2016 is a JOKE.   It could be ironic, but Obama by 2016 might have wished he has lost in 2012, the office has worn him down, the white hair is empirical evidence of that, he will look really old by 2016. 

Romney vs. Obama - The Polls

Well folks it is the final Friday before the US Presidential Election on Tuesday.   Here is the latest tracking poll from Rasmussen, Gallup is still out. 

Rasmussen Reports: In its poll today we see a tie between President Obama and Governor Romney, they are tied at 48%.

RCP: Lets have a look at the RCP average of the Obama vs. Romney Polls.  Today we see President Obama on 47.4%, while Governor Romney is on 47.3.%, a Obama lead of 0.1%.

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks we have a tied race, in the average of the Polls is the latest ABC News/Washington Post Poll, in that Poll we see Governor Romney leading President Obama by 49% to 48%, a 1%.   As stated this blog has called this race for POTUS, Sandy has helped Obama but on the margins, the race was set by the Obama's teams clever strategy of defining Governor Romney before he could define himself.  The 1st Debate was a disaster for POTUS but he came back, Romney could not move to the centre fast enough, thus Ohio will go for Obama and thus a 2nd term. 

Obama's WEAK Spot - Pennsylvania

CNN Politics: Reports on a Franklin and Marshall College poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania, the poll finds that President Obama leads Governor Romney by 49% to 45%, a 4% lead. 

Lets Get Real:

What if President Obama was to win Ohio but to lose Pennsylvania to Governor Romney, this would mean a Romney Presidency, the lead is narrow folks, VERY, also as the article notes both Campaigns are going to throw money at Pennsylvania up to election day.   This is the State to watch folks, if its very close or Romney ahead at the start of election night expect great worry in the Oval.  If Obama keeps the State then he gets a 2nd term.   That simple folks, this blog likes it when it is simple.   

Ohio - Obama's State - New Poll

CNN Politics: Reports on a new CBS News/NYT/Quinnipiac University Poll of Ohio, in this poll of likely voters we see President Obama leading Governor Romney by 50% to 45%, a 5% lead. 

Lets Get Real:

This follows a pattern folks, either POTUS is leading in Ohio or tied with Romney, thus this blog is going to call Ohio for Obama, a narrow win, with early voting and and the excellent ground game of the Obama team and the Unions they should secure Ohio.   Thus a 2nd term for President Obama.   The Romney surge came to late folks, if that 1st Debate had taken place some time before, if the Hurricane Sandy had not placed Obama in a good light.     Thus the Romney surge while it was real came to late, also events and events folks.   This blog hates to be wrong. 

Do Polls LIE ? - 2012 US Election

Telegraph: Looks at how the uber liberal NYT looks at poll evidence, the article notes the following, " ..has there ever been such an effort by one side to poll their way to victory?...We’ve witnessed the evolution of polling from an objective gauge of the public mood to a propaganda tool: partisan and inaccurate. ".

Lets Get Real:

Lets recall folks that the Uber liberal NYT covered for Stalin, thus they will do what ever it takes to get President Obama re-elected, they have not covered Libyagate in full as it might hurt the Oval.   This blog has been worried for months that the National and State polls have be bent to benefit the Oval.    Although this blog is suspect of polls it has projected that President Obama will get a 2nd term.   With the exception of the last poll from Ohio this blog has not seen a poll with Romney ahead.   This blog is keeping with its projection due to the Obama ground game in Ohio and because the Unions are going out of their way to support their man, they need Obama in the Oval to protect their rights from their point of view.    Lets see how Hurricane Sandy effects the polls, will Obama get a bounce or he will become another Bush 43.  It is down to Mother Nature folks. 

Ohio, Obama's State ? - 2012 US Election

Rasmussen Reports: Has a new State poll from Ohio, in this poll Governor Romney is leading President Obama by 50% to 48%, a 2% lead. 

Lets Get Real:

This is first poll this blogger has seen with Governor Romney ahead, it could be a real lead or just an outrider of a poll.  The real news is Hurricane Sandy and the performance of President Obama.  If there is a disaster and the Oval handles it better than Bush 43 then the Oval will get a 2nd term.  IF NOT, then it is all over.   The press for the next few days will be fixated on Mother Earth and her actions, not the ground game in Ohio.   Never less an interesting poll folks. 

Ohio Polls - 2012 US Election

RCP: Reports on its average of the State Polls from Ohio, as of today President Obama leads Governor Romney by 48.0% to 45.7%, a 2.3% lead. 

Lets Get Real: 

Thus folks this Blog has not seen a Ohio Poll that has Romney leading Obama, either Obama is leading or is tied with Romney.  All the polls can not be bent, thus the projection by this blog that POTUS will get a 2nd term.  President Obama has to WIN Ohio and not lose any Blue States.    It will be a very narrow win folks, Obama might win the Electoral College but lose the national vote, also the Republicans could take Congress, they already control the House, they are close to taking the Senate.    Thus the next four years could be very hard for the Chicago political mob.  As the old saying goes, to Win is to Lose. 

The Tracking Polls - 2012 US Election

Thus folks its that time of the week, the Obama vs. Romney Polls of likely Voters.

Rasmussen Reports: Today in its daily tracking poll we find Governor Romney leading President Obama by 50% to 46%, a 4% lead. 

Gallup: Reports in its tracking poll that Governor Romney leads President Obama by 51% to 46%, a 5% lead. 

Lets Get Real: 

Thus folks it seems that Governor Romney has a lead of between 4% to 5%.  Its healthy folks, and one would normally project a winner even this far out, but its down to the Electoral College folks.  Thus Governor Romney might win the popular vote as VP Gore did in 2000 but lose the Oval to President Obama, as the last poll this blog saw had Obama with a small lead in Ohio.   Thus even with these National Polls this blog is still keeping to a 2nd Obama term.  Of course should the polls be found to be a fraud in favour of the Democrats this blog will not be happy.   Thus folks, a VERY long night waiting for Ohio.