Escalation to a Naval War between the US and Iran - Trump Era

Sky News: Reports " Donald Trump says Iran has made 'a very big mistake' after US military drone shot down...It follows increased tensions between the two countries and news that the US is sending more troops to the Middle East.  "

Lets Get Real:

This is a REAL TEST for the Trump Oval, does President Trump ACT or does he become another Barack Obama and let it go, he has already stated that he thinks it might not be a Tehran Regime decision to shoot down the US drone, thus giving himself a out if he wants it, that will not go down well with the HAWKS in the White House and the Republican Party.  The President should think what JFK or Reagan would have DONE.  The American people can put with a lot, but a WEAK President on the international front will not help his 2020 election prospects.   If the Trump Oval does act, it might be on the Seas, take down a few Tehran small boats, or platforms, make it clear the next time that it will be worse.  The Congressional leadership will be meeting with POTUS this evening, let's see what happens after that.  

Turning the screw on Iran - Middle East/Trump Era

CNN - Politics: Reports " President Donald Trump and his advisers are considering revoking sanctions waivers that have allowed several countries to collaborate with Iran on civil nuclear projects,   "

Lets Get Real:

Iran should not be allowed to get any civil or military nuclear projects, they can not be trusted.  The Trump Administration has ended waivers for those Countries that take oil from IRAN, this will further hurt the economy of the Tehran Regime.   The point of these sanctions is to force IRAN to the table to discuss their terrorist support and their missiles project.  The Tehran Regime has threatened to close the oil route that takes oil to the West, this would be a BIG MISTAKE, the US would then feel free to take military action, the last thing anyone wants.   The US and it's ally Israel are afraid that Iran is developing the bomb and if it gets the bomb it would be a THREAT to the Middle East, the Tehran Government must be bought to talks, and as Churchill stated it is better to talk than war.   One assumes that Israeli intelligence knows what secret projects as being developed by IRAN, the State of Israel has to be protected also the US ally of Saudi Arabia. 

Cash for Access? - MPs Scandal

BBC News: Reports on the scandal of former British Foreign Secretaries Sir Malcolm Rifkind and Jack Straw, the article notes the following, " Sir Malcolm and another former foreign secretary, Jack Straw, who was also filmed, say they have broken no rules. "

Lets Get Real:

This is more a political problem for the Conservative Party as Sir Malcolm is standing in the 2015 election, while Jack Straw is leaving the House of Commons after the General Election.   From seeing some of the video footage this is more about old politicians wanting to make sure that they earn enough money while in the House of Commons and can take care of their personal finances after leaving front line politics.   The phrases used by both politicians is not great, " under the radar " with Jack Straw and " self employed " by Sir Malcolm.   The punishment should be a public rebuke and lets deal with real issues, MPs are real people with the same concerns as the rest of us, we all want to make money and we all want to retire with a good pension. 

Labour LEAD in new Poll - 2015 General Election

Guardian: Reports on its new poll, " Labour stands on 34%, up 1 point on a fortnight ago, while the Tories are unchanged on 32%. Ukip, which is edging downwards, has dropped 3 points to 15%, while the Greens are up 2 points on 8%, ahead of the Lib Dems, who are also up 2 points, on 7%. "

Lets Get Real:

As noted by this blog and others, it only needs Labour to get to around 34%-36% to have the ability to form a majority Government by a narrow margin.   Due to the election maths it takes more Conservative voters to vote Conservative to allow the Party to rule by itself.   Thus this blog is keeping to its prediction that Labour will win the election with a narrow majority or come out the biggest Party.   If it needs a coalition partner it can get that from the Lib Dems or the SNP.   The Conservative Party faces 5 years in opposition.   It should be noted that if the Conservative Party losses it can be expected that David Cameron will resign as PM and Conservative Leader.   A new Labour Government can be expected to balls it up on the economy and cause it to lose the next election in 2020. 

The Economic Market and Oil

The New York Times: Reports on the recent 330+ dive in the US Stock Market, the article notes the following reasons, " Oil prices tumbled below $50 a barrel on Monday, spooking global financial markets....Worries about Greece’s ability to stay in the eurozone have reasserted themselves in recent days, for instance. The dollar continued its surge against the euro on Monday. "

Lets Get Real:

There is a glut of oil, thus prices will fall, the old producers of oil from the Middle East can not afford to cut back as they will lose their market share, as noted in the article there are other gas providers that can cover any space in the market.   What is also noted is that Greece is back on the table, there is a snap General Election this month, the left wing Party is expected to win, the Party has stated that it wants better terms from the EU, the Germans have said NO.  The German tax payer is not going cover to the promises of a left wing Party in Greece.   Thus either the LEFT in Greece fold or Greece is out of the Euro, either by its own choice or thrown out.   The benefit to the West of lower oil prices can be found in the fact that the UK Coalition Government will be heading in to an election with oil prices down.   That always looks good for the voter.   On the international field the low price of oil really hurts Iran and Venezuela, thus they need a deal with the US to get sanctions off, with a Republican Congress the Oval can whistle for any sanctions removed.   It will be interesting to see how the markets react tomorrow, will people still sell shares or start to buy as share prices get lower. 

The Case for UK action in Iraq - The New War on Terror

BBC News: Reports " Islamic State (IS) is a threat to the "streets of Britain" and the UK has a "duty" to confront it, David Cameron has said as MPs debate air strikes. "

Lets Get Real:

This is the first stage of UK actions in Iraq, it can be argued that PM Cameron has given himself enough room to attack Syria if there is a urgent need to act, then the PM would come back to the House of Commons to seek support.   If the RAF are in action over Syria then the House of Commons will give it support, even through there will be mutterings from the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats. 

Thus the UK is in its third action, the Vote in the House will be yes as the Conservative Party, Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats support the action, the next question is what next, the IS terrorists want the West to take action on the ground, the West can not afford to be dragged in to another action, it has to get the Iraqi Army up and ready to fight, it has to arm the Kurds, and also use UK and US Special Forces in the region.   This will be a long War, it could still be going on during the general election, by then Syria could also be a target.   It will be interesting to see the ramifications of this War on public opinion and during the General Election of 2015. 

Obama on IS - The War in Iraq

The White House: Reports on the weekly address by POTUS.  Here are the remarks, " Over the past week, the United States has continued to lead our friends and allies in the strategy to degrade and ultimately destroy the terrorist group known as ISIL.  As I’ve said before, our intelligence community has not yet detected specific plots from these terrorists against America.  Right now, they pose a threat to the people of Iraq, Syria, and the broader Middle East.  But its leaders have threatened America and our allies.  And if left unchecked, they could pose a growing threat to the United States.

So, last month, I gave the order for our military to begin taking targeted action against ISIL.  Since then, American pilots have flown more than 170 airstrikes against these terrorists in Iraq.  And France has now joined us in these airstrikes.

Going forward, we won’t hesitate to take action against these terrorists in Iraq or in Syria.  But this is not America’s fight alone.  I won’t commit our troops to fighting another ground war in Iraq, or in Syria.  It’s more effective to use our capabilities to help partners on the ground secure their own country’s futures. We will use our air power. We will train and equip our partners.  We will advise and we will assist.   And we’ll lead a broad coalition of nations who have a stake in this fight.  This isn’t America vs. ISIL.  This is the people of that region vs. ISIL.  It’s the world vs ISIL.

We’ve been working to secure bipartisan support for this strategy here at home, because I believe that we are strongest as a nation when the President and Congress work together.  We’ve been consulting closely with Congress.  And last week, Secretary of State Kerry, Secretary of Defense Hagel, and military leaders worked to gain their support for our strategy. 

A majority of Democrats and a majority of Republicans in both the House and the Senate have now approved a first, key part of our strategy by wide margins.  They’ve given our troops the authority they need to train Syrian opposition fighters so that they can fight ISIL in Syria.  Those votes sent a powerful signal to the world: Americans are united in confronting this danger.  And I hope Congress continues to make sure our troops get what they need to get the job done.

Meanwhile, because we’re leading the right way, more nations are joining our coalition.  Over 40 countries have offered to help the broad campaign against ISIL so far – from training and equipment, to humanitarian relief, to flying combat missions.  And this week, at the United Nations, I’ll continue to rally the world against this threat.

This is an effort that America has the unique ability to lead.  When the world is threatened; when the world needs help; it calls on America. And we call on our troops. Whether it’s to degrade and ultimately destroy a group of terrorists, or to contain and combat a threat like the Ebola epidemic in Africa; we ask a lot of our troops.  But while our politics may be divided at times, the American people stand united around supporting our troops and their families.  This is a moment of American leadership.  Thanks to them, it is a moment we will meet. "

Lets Get Real:

I wish President Obama would stop saying that there will be no ground troops in Iraq, the US has 1,600 troops on the ground already, and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs has stated that these Military Advisors could go out on missions with their Iraqi colleagues.   Thus the US does have boots on the ground, it also needs spotters for the air strikes, Vietnam started with military advisors.  In 1965 LBJ placed the Marines in South Vietnam to protect US planes, will Obama in 2015 send real ground troops back in to Iraq, there is more chance of that than the US leaving Iraq for good. 

Will Scotland leave the UK ? - VOTE NO

BBC - Referendum Vote Live: Report on the latest poll of polls  from Scotland, the No campaign leads by 51% to 49%.

Lets Get Real:

In my political black soul I want Scotland to leave, that makes a political sense to a Conservative, it would mean Labour could never form a majority Government in London, if in 2015 Labour does win by having Scottish MPs while they are leaving it will make a government weak, you could not have departing Scots telling the rest of the UK what government it should  have for the next five years.  It is the political interest of Labour to get their bloody vote out, time to makes those calls, knock on doors, get those people out, but the fear of God in to them, once Scotland leaves that IS IT.  There is no coming back with your tail between your legs when it turns out to be a disaster.    Make my black political smile and leave, but as am loyal subject of the Crown, stay even if it means a Labour Government.  YOUR CHOICE, DO YOU WANT YOUR WALLET AT THE DISPOSAL OF THE SNP.

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ls puts "No" on 51% and "Yes" on 49%ThThlatesolf polls puts "No" on 51% and "Yes" on 49%e latest poll of polls puts "No" on 51% and "Yes" 

The UK Cabinet after the Cameron Reshuffle - UK Politics

No 10: Reports the new UK Cabinet after the reshuffle of Conservative members by PM Cameron:  The Cabinet:  Also the latest job changes at Cabinet and below.

Lets Get Real:

This is about PM Cameron getting younger and more female members of the Cabinet, thus those on the way out by either age or wanting to leave have either gotten the chop or moved downwards as with the case with the Leader of the House William Hague, the former Foreign Secretary.  It will be interesting to see if new Foreign and Commonwealth Secretary Philip Hammond can stand up to the Foreign Office, the Foreign Office is pro Europe, and pro Arab, the Department as other Departments have a way of house training new Ministers, either their decisions will lead to an economic collapse  or start WW3.  The Foreign Office needs a new broom, will Mr Hammond stand up to the civil servants, one has doubts, that is why No 10 on the whole does not trust the Foreign Office and why the great PM's have run their own Foreign Policy.   The new female faces is a good PR touch, lets hope they bring more votes in 2015. 

Another BLOW for ObamaCare - 2nd Term Blues

The New York Times: Reports on another blow to ObamaCare, the article notes the following, " ..the administration has delayed until 2015 a significant consumer protection in the law that limits how much people may have to spend on their own health care.  ".

Lets Get Real: 

Thus folks employers get a break, now the insurers when it comes to ObamaCare, these groups get a break in till 2015, of course till after the 2014 Mid Terms, while the poor voters get truly  expletive deleted, this is typical of Obama, he is interested in keeping Democrats on the Hill that it will do what ever it takes to avoid problems before 2014.   The Republicans should have a two level strategy, it should push through a Bill that suspends ObamaCare for voters in till 2015 AND then close down the Government, the House should pass resolutions that carry on funding defence and welfare but then close it ALL DOWN.    The Democrats need BIG GOVERNMENT, if the US does NOT FALL apart with a Government shut down they lose their main argument.  Thus folks time for the Republicans to play Chicago hard ball, close it ALL DOWN, make Democrats face a choice Obama or get re -elected, Democrats will always take election folks, they are weak when pushed, they have no moral code at the end of the day. 

The Conservatives and Labour Neck and Neck - New Poll

Guardian: Reports on its new poll, the articles notes the following, " Conservative support surges to see main parties level for first time since March 2012 on 36% of the vote in Guardian/ICM poll ".

Lets Get Real: 

The surge in Conservative support folks is due to the fact that the Conservative Party has moved to the right, it is pushing through a Referendum vote on the EU for 2017, it is going after welfare, and lets be honest, the UK has had great success in sports, from the Lions winning in Rugby, the 1st British  Wimbledon Champion in over 70 years, the 1st Ashes Test won by England, and of course the SUN is out, one wonders when the rains are going to come.   Also the economy is not like the PIIGS nations, its not great but not in the toilet, thus folks the voter is giving the Conservatives a 2nd chance, lets see if they can gain more support, of course this poll could be a rogue poll, lets see others, also 2015 in election terms is a lifetime away folks.   There will be more rainy days ahead folks, lets see who gets washed away. 

Major Fault with ObamaCare - 2nd Term Blues

BBC News: Reports a major plank of ObamaCare will be delayed in till 2015, those small companies with over 50 workers will not have to cover them in till 2015, the individual mandate still stands. 

Lets Get Real:

This is political folks, the Oval is scared stiff of the 2014 Mid Term Elections, it does not want Democrats to lose more House seats, and this is on the card folks, also the Republicans could narrow the Democratic edge in the Senate.   The Oval is scared that the Republicans could even take the Senate, this would be a nightmare for the Oval, the House would repeal ObamaCare, it might even pass the Senate with a narrow Republican majority, then the Oval would have to veto the Bill.  Lets face it folks, after 2014 comes the run up to the 2016 Presidential Election, the only domestic achievement of President Obama is ObamaCare, if the Republicans take the Oval then ObamaCare is in danger of being repealed, this would not look good for the Obama legacy, Immigration reform could die in the House, there are still battles over the debt ceiling to come, thus folks it is not about Obama NOW, its about the future of the Democratic Party, thus the objectives of Obama and Congressional Democrats might not be the same thing folks, its about winning in 2014 and 2016. 

Labour/Liberal Democrats vs EU Vote

BBC News: Reports that the Liberal Democrats in  the Coalition Government will not take part as will Labour in the next reading of the EU Vote private members Bill. 

Lets Get Real: 

The Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats have to be careful that they do not place themselves in a impossible position, the Labour Party can not be sure how many Labour MPs would support the Bill on its third reading, or even vote in the Commons for the Bill.   The idea that is just the Conservative Party that has a problem with the EU is a BIG MISTAKE, a small minority of Labour MPs are also very negative about the EU, also a healthy does of Labour supporters are very anti Europe.   The Labour Party can not go in to the 2015 Election with the idea that they can deny the EU vote to voters, it would give the impression that the Labour leadership is out of touch with its own MPs and its voters and more generally with the UK voter.   There is the idea within the elite that this Bill will die due to the fact that its a Private Members Bill, this blog doubts, the more the Labour Party and Liberal Democrats wait the more they might be forced in to saying YES to a vote, politics is an ART folks not a science. 

The End of David Miliband ? - Future Labour Leader ?

Daily Mail: Reports the following on the shock resignation of David Milliband, " ..David Miliband’s decision will also be seen as a massive vote of no confidence in his brother’s ability as Labour leader... ".

Lets Get Real: 

Lets be generous folks, and not think this move is political, rare on here, yes folks, one can see why the former Foreign Secretary has taken this move, if and its a big IF Ed Miliband does pull it off and wins the 2015 General Election the 1st man through No 10 would be his brother David, he would in essence have to offer him job he wanted, and I mean any job with the exception of the PM post, thus not a happy Shadow Cabinet.   The worse outcome for Ed Mililband giving this 2015 case study would be for his brother to take a job, and could never be sacked, moved or anything else, not happy idea for a new PM, it would be worse than having Gordon Brown as your Chancellor, also lets play this out, a new Labour Government under Ed Junior would get in to trouble, thus low poll ratings, thus talk in the tea rooms of  a new leader, yes his brother, thus further nightmare for Ed Junior.   Now lets get real, DM thinks his brother will not win, so why stay around, the Labour Party is not going to have a 2nd Miliband as a leader, thus get out and get a real job and make some money, wise and ruthless, he would have made a great Labour Leader. 

Brotherly Love NOT - The Miliband Brothers

Guardian: Reports on the shock news that David Milliband, the older brother of Ed Miliband and former UK Foreign Secretary is to resign as a MP and move to New York. 

Lets Get Real: 

Thus why prize victory for Ed Miliband, he stabbed his elder brother in the back to become Labour Leader, according to reports it has been a disaster for the Miliband family, lets face when you ask the general public about Ed Miliband the first thing they mention is that he stole the job his brother had wanted all his life.    The Labour Party is ahead in the polls at the present, it should be pointed out that when Ed Miliband is on the screens for a while the polls go down for Labour, the BBC and Guardian do not seem to cover EM much, less press the better it can be argued, one can say from memory that Tony Blair pre 1997 had much more better press that EM junior.   The Labour Party is ahead in the polls at the moment because of the austerity drive of the Coalition Government, but as we get closer to the 2015 General Election the Labour Party will have to produce policies; the UK is broke folks; thus it can not promise to spend money that is not there, then we shall see what Ed Miliband is made of, can he sell Labour in the heat of a General Election, interesting folks. 

Labour Split - EU

Daily Mail: Reports the reaction to the opposition of Ed Miliband to a EU vote, the article states the following, " risked a party split after refusing to promise an in-out referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union.  Senior Labour figures have defied their leader and backed David Cameron’s announcement today.. ". 

Lets Get Real:

Folks the Conservative Party could have just won the 2015 election, in less Labour moves to agree to a vote they will not win the 2015 election, the Liberal Democrats will have to find a backbone and move from being a pro EU party, and fast.   The game has changed folks, PM Cameron has Labour by the neck, he could even ask the House of Commons to have a pre vote in 2014, force Labour to take a stand, devious but it would work folks, you have to love politics.   A week is a long time in politics folks.   The Labour Party old hands will need to have a world with Ed Miliband, he will have to annoy the the BBC and Guardian and move to support a vote, he can not hold his own Party on this issue, the Liberal Democrats will have to sit down and think hard about their future, do they want a role in UK politics, if so they will have to ditch their pro EU stand and move to be more critical and harsh, the voters decide folks, that is called Democracy. 

EU Budget - PT2

Telegraph: Reports the following from the EU Summit meeting, " ..David Cameron won German support in a row with France about his demands for more cuts in spending. ".

Lets Get Real:

This fight is a fight the PM Cameron wants, he could in 2015 go in to a general election that could also be a day to hold a referendum on the role of the UK in the EU.    If Cameron was VERY cynical he could force through a YES/NO referendum, then force the Labour Party to choose a side, the Conservatives would be for OUT, while the Labour Party would be split, it can be argued that Labour Leader Ed Miliband could not prevent Labour splits.  As Ed Mililband is pro EU, he would be forced to support the EU with UK voters, not a good idea.   Lets see if PM Cameron is that cynical, after all folks it would be democracy, the UK voter would have a final say on the role of the UK in the EU and would make sure that the Conservative Party WON the election. 

Liberal Democrats and the OAP's

BBC News: Reports that the DPM Nick Clegg has stated that richer old age pensioners should lose their benefits after the next general election. 

Lets Get Real:

One wonder does Mr Clegg not understand that its old people that tend to come out vote, does he want a Liberal Democrat presence in the House of Commons after the next election, thus far the Liberal Democrats have lost the youth vote due their supporting tuition fees, now they are scaring old age pensioners.   This policy suggestion is opposed by the Conservative Party, PM David Cameron has made it clear that he does not support the move, thus in the 2015 election both the Labour Party and the Conservative Party have a perfect way to kill off the Lib Dems as a political force, make them seem to the right of Lady Thatcher when it comes to welfare.   One can see the political advert now, old age pensioner in her chair, looking at a letter saying that because her house is considered a major asset she will lose her benefits, she looks at a picture of her family, she was going to give the house to them, she has only limited heating, she is not cash rich.   There is snow outside, camera looks in to her sad eyes.  Yes folks, the Lib Dems are fools. 

The AXE Man Comes - UK Cabinet Reshuffle

Guardian: Reports on tomorrows UK Cabinet Reshuffle, " ..will see a comprehensive clear-out of cabinet ministers who have failed to deliver.. ".

Lets Get Real:

Politics is a brutal business folks, if you do not cut it in your Department or with the press you are out. This is the chance for PM Cameron and DPM Clegg to show that they can be brutal, that they can be bold, if the Conservative Party wants a chance in 2015, the same for the Lib Dems then the Coalition Government needs a new face, one that gets people back to work, and also seems united if not in private. It will be interesting to see who gets the axe, and who goes without making a song and dance of getting the chop, fun time folks, its a UK Cabinet Reshuffle.

UK Cabinet Reshuffle - Tuesday

BBC News: Reports that Coalition PM David Cameron will hold a UK Cabinet Reshuffle tomorrow.

Lets Get Real:

It seems from the report that the Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, and Foreign Secretary William Hague will stay in their posts, the rest of the Cabinet with the exception of the Liberal Democrats should be worried. The Conservative Party is well behind the Labour Party under the leadership of Ed Miliband, thus the Conservative part of the Coalition needs some new blood, also you have to give the restive backbenches the chance that they will be in Government, thus the middle ranks of the Government need to be culled, new blood and new ideas. On the Liberal Democrat side, the DPM Nick Clegg needs to protect his back, there have been mutterings of discontent, thus he needs to appoint those loyal to him and consider being brutal, take a risk and sack Vince Cable, the Cable has never taken to be in Coalition with the Conservatives, put David Laws in his job, and set the road for 2015.