NYT and Immigration Reform - 2nd Term Blues

The New York Times: Reports the following on Immigration Reform and its chances in the House, " House Republicans find themselves in a difficult spot on immigration, caught between the needs of the national party to broaden its appeal to Hispanics, and the views of constituents in gerrymandered, largely safe conservative districts. ".

Lets Get Real: 

The start of above is accurate folks, the Republicans in 2017 need to get more Hispanic voters, but the next election in the cycle is the 2014 Mid Term folks, that is a base vote, and the base of the Republican Party does not want amnesty, it could be argued that the Republicans should slow walk the reform, very slow, only produce elements that have the support of the majority of House Republicans and the base.   Where the above NYT line goes wrong is the failure to mention that Democrats have safe seats, thus they tend to be VERY LIBERAL, thus you had Speak Pelosi, but that was a exception folks, since 1994 the Democrats have only held the House in two election cycles, and that was down to Iraq and the meltdown of the banks, after ObamaCare the House returned to the Republicans, these voters want to BLOCK the Obama Agenda.  Thus Speaker Boehner should get through the 2014 Mid Terms, see how many troops he has and then go for a deal, in time for the 2017 election.   One election at a time folks, ALL that matters in 2014 Mid Terms, politics is local folks. 

Cheney on Gingrich

CNN News - Politics: Reports that former VP Richard Cheney has warned the challengers to Newt Gingrich in essence not to fall in to the trap of “ ..misjudging the former House speaker’s election prospects. ”. As the former VP notes the former Speaker early on his career saw the prospects of the Republicans taking the House from the Democrats. One I think can argue that the VP is in his own way endorsing Gingrich, when one looks at national security issues from Israel to Iran, it can be argued that Gingrich is closer to Cheney. The question will the kind words of the former VP help or hinder Gingrich, they should help, they should tell the voter that Gingrich is a winner, he retook the House, what is the say he cant make Obama a one term President. These are interesting times folks, the STAR has lost his allure, the people want jobs nor a Law Professor in the Oval.

President Obama 50% Approval - Gallup Poll

Gallup: Reports that President Obama has a 50% approval rating in their latest poll, while 42% disapprove of President Obama’s job performance. Let see in few days how the State of the Union Address impacts these numbers, Obama knows how to give a good speech, it should be short and conservative in nature, it has to be about jobs, jobs and jobs, also tax cuts would help. Let see if President Obama has learned the lessons of Bill Clinton after his major defeat in the 1994 Mid Terms, will this speech start the path to a successful re - election in 2012.

Obama and the State of the Union Speech

Guardian: It is always easy to tell if a left politician is in trouble, the left media build him after a defeat, in this case the 2010 Mid Term Elections, the article looks at the Obama State of Union Address and can only see plus side of the sheet, the article states the following on Obama at the moment, “ it seems to me that the White House people are clearly winning this public relations battle……Finally and most importantly, Republicans are on the defensive”, that the Republicans will help Obama win re-election, as the Republicans helped Bill Clinton in 1996. One has to wonder why Obama has to bother giving the speech the Guardian and the New York Times will praise his move to the centre, his investment in other words spending, But its early folks, these old papers are forgetting the political landmines out there, the US Court system could throw out ObamaCare, then Obama has nothing on the domestic front, even if that does not happens Obama will have to defend ObamaCare in 2012, also his argument that there should be tax hikes, lets be honest and direct here, in Arizona and here at the State Union he is the centre of attention, in 2012 it’s a two man race, or woman even, Obama wont be the new kid on the block, he looks old now, being old does not help youth centric culture of the US. Let the left wing and liberals celebrate and miss the point, its not new, some on the left wanted Ronald Reagan to be the Republican candidate in 1980, they thought Jimmy Carter could beat him, YES folks they can be that OUT of it, two years is an age in politics folks, Jimmy Carter in 1979 had Iran and Afghanistan to deal with, events, events always around the corner folks.

The Obama Re-Elect of 2012

Gallup: Reports on its daily tracking poll on the job performance of President Obama, the President has a 48% approval rating, while 42% disapprove of the job performance of President Obama. These are good numbers if your in the Obama White House but this year is still early, the performance of President Obama after the tragic Arizona shootings have helped his poll ratings, all things are political folks, but this year POTUS will have to deal with a Republican Congress and that Congress will start soon to repeal ObamaCare, also Obama will have to defend ObamaCare and its death panels, Bill Clinton after his failed bid over health care could move on and pivot to the centre, Obama will have to protect his health care reform form the Republican House and the US Courts, enjoy the numbers Obama White House, the rocky road really starts NOW.

Obama/Bush 43 Tax Cuts

Fox News: Reports that House Democrats will go along with the deal struck by President Obama and Republicans to keep the Bush 43 tax cuts for all Americans. At the end of the day the House Democrats are doing what they are told by the White House, that is why they lost control of the House, if moderate and conservative Democrats had said NO to ObamaCare then Democrats would still be in control of the House. The lack of a backbone has a historical example, when Bill Clinton in 1994 lead the House Democrats over a cliff. It seems that Democrats have no depth or historical understanding, that must be the reason that the elected Nancy Pelosi to lead them in the next Congress, they will they be out of power for years.

Elections have Results, Bush Tax Cuts vs. President Obama

The New York Times: Reports that the all Republican Senators have informed their Democratic Counterparts that the extension of the Bush 43 tax cuts come first, no movement on that then the US Senate is stalled. As President Obama stated elections have consequences, thus the Republican takeover of the House and the cutting of the Democrats majority in the US Senate means there a new ballgame on the Hill. The Republicans in the House in the new year can veto any Democratic Bill, Obama will have sell his base down the river if he wants a second term in 2012. Over the next two years the US will see if Obama is another Bill Clinton after his Mid Term losses in 1994 or another Jimmy Carter, at the moment Obama looks like a charismatic brother of Jimmy Carter.

Reagan vs. Obama - Mid Terms

The Democrats have mentioned Ronald Reagan as a case example of a President who has a bad Mid Terms and comes back to win big, in 1982 Reagan stated the following on the Mid Term losses of 26 on November 3rd 1982 “ Our target in the one House had been, as we said, somewhere between 17 and 27. Well, apparently it's turned out between 17 and 27 that we've lost in the House, but the main point is, and we're gratified, that we have not only maintained control of the Senate but that when we started 2 years ago we had 53, and we now have 54 Republican Senators. And we look forward to working with this Congress now in a bipartisan fashion to solving the major problems that still have to be solved…….But let me just say, first of all, there's a smile on our faces, and intentionally so. If you look traditionally at what has happened in a situation of this kind, we have every reason to feel good. A President, newly elected and who has brought in with him one house of the legislature -- or the Congress in his election -- this is the first time since 1928 that he has not lost, 2 years later, that House majority that he brought in with him. The average in times of economic stress -- the average loss in this 2-year election is 46. We feel very good about what's happened. Sure, we'd like to have won everything, but we knew we weren't going to.” Thus President Obama over the last two years has had the White House, the House and the Senate, in effect due to the need of 60 votes in the Senate to get any movement the Hill is gone, thus although the Democrats kept the Senate this is very much like 1994 with Obama facing a choice, keep to his ideology or make a move to the centre, the Guardian notes the following on the election defeat, “ one of the worst Democratic election defeats in 70 years.” The President at the Press Conference gave the impression that the defeat hadn’t really hit him yet, when the Republicans simply say NO to his Agenda and he cant move it, the real political horror will hit him, Reagan in his press conference turned the issue in to a positive, they had kept the losses in the House to below the norm, also they had added a Senator, Obama didn’t have that to say, one gets the feeling that Obama still has YES MEN around him that don’t want to tell him the political truth, if he wants a second term he will have to pull ObamaCare, that’s the choice, in political life you sometimes get such a simple choice.

Latest House Projection - RCP

RCP: Reports on its latest House projection, the Republicans are on 224, while the Democrats have 167, there are 44 Seats that could go either way on Tuesday. Lets say for argument sake that all 44 50/50 Seats go to the Republicans, thus the Republicans would have 268 while Democrats would be stuck on 167, this would be a massive win for the Republicans and the Tea party movement, it would give the Republicans the Mandate to block the Obama Agenda, so no more spending by Obama, it would force POTUS to go to the centre or to his right if he wants any movement on the Hill. Thus the question that all commentators have asked can the Oval move to the centre as Bill Clinton moved in 1994, that will show the political quality of President Obama, is not when your Party controls the Presidency and the Hill that shows the power of the Oval, its when the Oval has to cut deals with the opposition party or face a frozen two years. President Obama has only two years to get his act together or face defeat in 2012.

Democrats OPPOSE POTUS in 2012

Mail on Sunday: Reports that 47% of Democrats want POTUS challenged from within the Democratic Party. Lets recall that both in 1976 and 1980 sitting US Presidents faced a hard challenge from within their own Parties, President Ford faced Ronald Reagan and President faced Senator Edward M. Kennedy, after winning the nominations both Presidents lost to the opposing Party. Also it should be recalled that Senator Kennedy was pushed to run by those on the Hill who didn’t want to lose their Seats, if the Obama poll ratings are bad in 2012 expect a more centre candidate to challenge Obama, if a challenger can win Iowa and New Hampshire Obama might be forced out, LBJ won in NH in 68 but it was hollow victory thus his refusal to run in 1968. It call comes down the economy folks, in 1984 Reagan had an economic boom, thus he beat Walter Mondale by 49 States to 1, also Clinton after losing the Congress in 1994 moved to the centre and won in 1996. Its early folks but the 2012 race starts on the November 3rd, that’s the fun of US politics is always an election period.

Leaving the Sinking Ship - House Democrats

Time: Reports that Liberal House Speaker Nancy Pelosi could retire if the Democrats lose the House to the Republicans in November. One has to wonder how many top Democrats will get jobs in the Obama White House, the poor foot soldiers who voted for ObamaCare will be in the cold of defeat and without a job. One has to wonder why Democrats don’t learn, are they just thick, the Clinton Presidency is not that long ago, in 1994 Bill Clinton lost the House after nearly half a Century of Democratic rule, the issue was health care reform, one would think that Democrats in the House would have learnt to say no to a young Democratic President. This blog has no sympathy for stupid politicians, they allowed themselves to be rolled by Obama/Pelosi who do not care about conservative and moderate Democrats, these Congressmen/women should have bailed on Obama but they allowed his extreme Liberal Agenda to pass, thus they pay the price, lets hope its cold losing.

Obama 43% Approval - Gallup

Gallup: Reports on its latest daily tracking poll for President Obama, on Sunday the President is on 43% Approval and 48% Disapproval. This is not good for the Democrats heading in to the 2010 Mid Term Congressional Elections, Reagan in 1982 lost 28 House Seats, while Clinton in 1994 lost the House to the Republicans. Thus the best outcome for the Oval would be to lose around 26-30 seats but still keep control of the House, the worse outcome would be to lose the House and the Senate, a half victory would be to lose the House but keep the Senate and win a few Governorships in key states for 2012.

How Safe are Safe Liberal Seats ?

Fox News: Reports that even in birth place of JFK the great State of Massachusetts once liberal seats are under threat from the Republican wave facing the Democrats in November. If Democratic safe seats in the House go Republican this will make 1994 look like a major victory for Bill Clinton. If the Republicans can gain between 75 to 100 seats they can block any Obama policy, they will have the electoral mandate, they can push through a Bill to revoke ObamaCare, this will force POTUS to veto the Bill, the question that Democrats in the House and the Senate will have to ask is will they sustain a Presidential veto, when they run again can they afford to be seen as close to POTUS. The Oval will have to work hard to prevent a wipe out of Democrats on November.

Obama 2nd Term ?

Telegraph: Reports on the prospects for President Obama to run for a second term in 2012. This blog has predicted that President Obama will either not run or go down to major defeat, think Walter Mondale when he lost to Ronald Reagan by 49 States and 59% of the vote. Lets be clear Obama is elite and arrogant, but he is not stupid, if he gets a Republican House and Senate his Domestic Agenda is dead in the water. In 1994 Bill Clinton faced a Republican Congress but still won in 1996 but Clinton was a great pragmatic politician, he went to the centre, even centre right to win in 1996. The Obama Presidency has one problem, its President Obama, lets be clear Obama is a clever and bright guy, he saw how great Reagan was, but he is not Reagan, the Gipper was also a great pragmatic politician, the Obama domestic and world view is so left of centre as to be in Cuba, and even Cuba is seeing the faults with left wing politics. If Obama was to really look at his style and policies of Government and see that he would have to change his whole psychological make up would fall apart, how do you tell your self that your spouting rubbish and even worse wrong rubbish. Thus the Obama political makeup will see that in 2012 he cant win or worse he will go down the toilet, thus without the love he will get out, he will blame the Republicans, the media, think a liberal Richard Nixon. That is the sad part about Obama, he could have been a contender, now he will be another Jimmy Carter.

2010 Mid Term Elections - Part Two

RCP: Reports on its average of generic polls, the RCP average is Republicans 47.9% and Democrats 42.3%. If this is a wipe out election for Democrats the Gallup poll as posted is the likely outcome, but if the Parties are more narrow by Election Day then the Republicans will retake the House and get parity with the Democrats in the Senate. A the effect on the Obama Administration of a big Republican win would be that President Obama would be forced to move to the centre, otherwise he might as well play golf for two years. A narrow win is more of a negative for President Obama, the Oval might get in to its head that the election was a fluke, thus not move to the centre as Clinton moved in 1994, this could lead to Obama losing his bid for re-election in 2012. Thus according to a recent poll 91% of African Americans still support Obama, if African Americans want to see the first African American President win a second term they should vote Republican. A Congress under the Republicans would force both Obama and the Republican Leadership to the centre, thus President Obama could run as a moderate in 2012 and win re-election. In many respects 2010 could decide the election of 2012.

The RETURN of the Democrats ?

Politico: Reports that Democrats are thinking that they might not suffer a political tsunami in the 2010 Mid Term Congressional Elections, the article states the following, as several important states now appear to be trending in their direction or growing more competitive.. The Democrats having been throwing the kitchen sink at the Republicans, also one can not discount the appeal of President Obama to young voters, the Democrats know that if they lose the House the Obama Agenda is dead on the Hill. The article notes the difficult of the Republicans taking the Senate, but in many respects they don’t have to take the Senate, as long as they get close to parity with the Democrats they can block the Obama Agenda or his nominees for Government jobs. A week is a long time in politics folks, also the Republicans face the danger not from Democrats from the elite media, the liberal NYT and the TV networks will throw any BS at the Republicans to protect the Obama White House and the Democrats on the Hill. The Republicans have to keep to a simple message, that the Obama White House has taken the US economy over a cliff, they have acted as drunk sailors through their economic stimulus, health care reform, the bailout of the car industry. Expect a lot of negative attacks from the elite media folks, the clever part is getting at the truth between the lines. Thus this blog is still keeping to its prediction that the Republicans will retake the House and get parity with Democrats in the Senate. Will make actual Seat predictions close to the election.

Rahm Emanuel OUT

Telegraph: Reports that White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel is to leave the Obama Administration on Friday to run for Mayor of Chicago. Its interesting timing folks, a month before the 2010 Mid Term Elections, one can postulate that once Mr Emanuel is back in Chicago the Obama White House will blame him if President Obama loses the House and Senate in November. As noted in few articles from the US it seems that Mr Emanuel had constant runs in with the liberals around Obama, also you have a President who thinks he is the smartest person in the room, when you have Bob Woodward in the room with the President its not Obama that is the smartest. If the Republicans take the House and Senate and it looks like the Republicans will take the House and get parity with the Democrats in the Senate the Obama White House will have a decision, in 1994 Bill Clinton had the same election outcome, he moved the centre and won re-election in 1996, but Clinton like Reagan was pragmatic, Obama as stated thinks he is the smartest person in the room, how will his arrogance and ego cope with a Congress that just says NO. This election in some odd respects will really show the Obama character, can he be pragmatic, or is he so stuck to the liberal cause that he wants to be a one term President like Carter.

The Congressional Elections of 2010 - US

RCP: Reports on its average of the polls for a generic Congressional vote in the 2010 Mid Term Elections, RCP’s average is Republican 49.1% and the Democrats 41.0%. In other words if you’re a Democrats get on your knees and pray for not getting wiped out in November. The Obama economic record is a stone around the neck of moderate to conservative Democrats, the Obama economic stimulus has failed to create jobs, the argument that it could have been worse is BS, when politicians and Democrats political operators come out with that kind of rubbish they are spinning, Stalin would be more successful with his 5 year plan. The Obama Administration forced through health care reform against the wishes of the American people, the argument that it would lower medical costs is shown to have been a lie. The bailout of the banks and the car industry has shown that the wealthy gain, in this case the bankers and Union workers at the expense of main street. Thus it can be postulated that Obama will face the same fate as Bill Clinton in 1994, the difference is that Obama wont change, he cant, his entire political makeup would fall apart if he had to admit he was wrong about the US economy, thus Obama will be a one term President, the Republican successor will repeal health care reform, and Obama will be left with a nice pension, a Presidential picture and a punctured EGO.

The Mid Term Elections of 2010

CNN: Reports that the Republicans are heading to retake the US House of Representatives. Thus the question that will arise is how President Obama will react, if the Republicans take the House the Obama Agenda is DEAD on Capital Hill. Thus will Obama move to the political centre or will he stay with his Liberal Agenda. This is my prediction folks, Obama is not Bill Clinton of 1994, after losing the House Clinton was pragmatic and moved to the centre, Obama thinks his extreme Liberal Agenda is the Centre. Thus Obama will keep to his path and will either not run in 2012 or will face a major defeat, the ego will meet reality folks.

Obama 41% Approval - Gallup

Gallup: Reports on its latest poll on the performance of President Obama in office, thus the latest daily tracking poll has President Obama’s approval at 41% and disapproval at 52%. If the Obama polls are this negative in November the Democrats will be in trouble, the list of negative actions by Obama is endless, from his economic package that failed to get jobs to the latest mess concerning the building of a Muslim Mosque near the centre of 9/11, Obama seems to turn gold in to lead. One has to admit one sees Obama as a charismatic Gordon Brown, and the same fate, when a politician stop listening and develops a tin ear for the voters they are thrown out, Obama had it all, charisma, charm, the faith of the American people and he blew it big time. The best thing that could happen to President Obama is for the Republicans to take the Congress, he would be forced by events to move to the centre, if the Republicans take the Hill and Obama fails to act like Bill Clinton after 1994 he well could face a challenge from within the Democratic Party from Hillary Clinton and then go down to defeat like Jimmy Carter. Obama is no Reagan or JFK, he is a dud in political terms.