NYT and Immigration Reform - 2nd Term Blues

The New York Times: Reports the following on Immigration Reform and its chances in the House, " House Republicans find themselves in a difficult spot on immigration, caught between the needs of the national party to broaden its appeal to Hispanics, and the views of constituents in gerrymandered, largely safe conservative districts. ".

Lets Get Real: 

The start of above is accurate folks, the Republicans in 2017 need to get more Hispanic voters, but the next election in the cycle is the 2014 Mid Term folks, that is a base vote, and the base of the Republican Party does not want amnesty, it could be argued that the Republicans should slow walk the reform, very slow, only produce elements that have the support of the majority of House Republicans and the base.   Where the above NYT line goes wrong is the failure to mention that Democrats have safe seats, thus they tend to be VERY LIBERAL, thus you had Speak Pelosi, but that was a exception folks, since 1994 the Democrats have only held the House in two election cycles, and that was down to Iraq and the meltdown of the banks, after ObamaCare the House returned to the Republicans, these voters want to BLOCK the Obama Agenda.  Thus Speaker Boehner should get through the 2014 Mid Terms, see how many troops he has and then go for a deal, in time for the 2017 election.   One election at a time folks, ALL that matters in 2014 Mid Terms, politics is local folks. 

Democrats and Taxes

The Page - Time: Reports that Democrats are falling apart over the issue of the Bush 43 tax cuts. The problem is that Democrats are fighting the 2006/08 races again, they are like old Generals fighting their past victories, they think that POTUS has influence over the Republicans, that went if it ever existed with the health care fight. The Republicans WON, the Democrats have to get over that fact or they will lose the White House and Senate in 2012. The Democrats are going to have to cave over taxes, otherwise they are going to go over a big cliff, the left might just be the best friends that Conservative Republicans have on the Hill.

Obama 42% Approval - CNN

CNN: Reports on its latest poll on the job performance of President Obama, 42% approve and 54% disapprove of Obama in the Oval. The liberal CNN points out that both Clinton and Reagan had the same poll numbers, but in November 1994 Clinton lost the House to the Republicans, the Democrats didn’t get control back in till 2006. Thus the Obama White House is a negative to moderate and conservative Democrats, they will need to run away from Obama, the President will do some good in getting the money in for candidates but most would rather have a root canal than a picture of them with Obama. Thus lets postulate that the Republicans take the House, what will Obama do, Clinton moved to the centre and won re-election in 1996 but Obama has not given any signs that he will move to the centre, he is a extreme liberal. Thus the election of 2012 will have the following outcome, Obama will lose by around 48/49 States, ObamaCare will be revoked, and the Republicans will control the White House and Congress. That is of course if Obama’s runs, might make a bet that he calls it quits and does not run in 2012.

Rahm Emanuel on the WAY OUT?

Politico: Reports on the speculation that the White House Chief of Staff, Rahm Emanuel could be on the way out. As a political operator Mr Emanuel is the best, he helped the Democrats retake the House from the Republicans, but as a Chief Staff is is lousy, think of Obama's poll ratings, they have gone south in a major way, the RCP average of Polls has Obama on 48.8% approval and 45.8 disapproval, the job of a Chief of Staff is to tell the President NO sometimes, its not to follow your own Agenda, the problem is that Mr Emanuel is a political animal in his own right, this has not be common to most Chief of Staffs of late, the last was Dick Cheney, what happened to him, yes Vice - President of the United States. A good Chief of Staff has to be ruthless but also has to have the ability to tell the POTUS that he is out of his mind, look at the effect of health care on the Obama ratings. If the Democrats lose the House in 2010 and the Republicans pick a few Senate Seats the Obama Agenda is dead on the Hill, no second chances. Thus it can be postulated that POTUS will show Emanuel the door should he lose the Hill. This my prediction that Mr Emanuel will be in the cold in the New Year of 2011.