Third Front in Pakistan

The Times: Reports that a third front in the terror war in Pakistan has opened up in North Waziristan, a local Tribal Chief has killed twenty three soldiers of the Army of Pakistan. The tribal badlands of the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan is a nightmare for a regular Army to fight at the best of time, this is not that time, the Army of Pakistan is learning to fight terrorists, its main military planning is to fight India. Thus it will take time for the Army of Pakistan to learn new military strategy, it took the US Army three years. Thus it will be a tough fight in Waziristan, its an insurgent heaven for fighting, mountains, passes that are hard to block, local loyalties, the need for troops to stay on the ground and win hearts and minds. This is going to be long and tough fight for the Army of Pakistan, lets hope they learn faster than the US Army in Iraq. The Taliban/Terrorists have access to Afghanistan, thus when the fighting gets heavy they can cross the border, the Obama surge of troops is just starting, thus it is important that the the US Military and Army of Pakistan co -ordinate military planning to flush out the terrorists, or the War in Afghanistan will hurt Obama as Iraq hurt Bush 43.

No More Filibusters

The New York Times: Reports that the Minnesota Supreme Court has declared that the Democrat Al Franken in the winner of the US Senate Seat. This gives the Democrats in the US Senate total control of the Senate, the Republicans can no longer filibuster a bill, they need Democrats to cross over to prevent any bills. The downside for the Democrats is that they get Al Franken, a not very good comedian, and totally Liberal. There is an old saying, be careful what you wish for you, well the Democrats have gotten their wish. Due to this decision, the Republicans will retake Congress in 2010. In addition, Obama will lose in 2012.

Iraq NOW

Sky News - Foreign Matters: Reports on the handover by the USA to Iraq of the security of Iraqi cities. This could be a testing time; there have been bomb attacks; as the post states. The Agreement for the transfer of security of Iraqi cities is set for June 30, USA troops should be out of Iraq by the end of 2011. It can be argued that the remaining terrorists in Iraq will get support from Iran, it will suite the regime in Tehran to divert attention to Iraq, thus expect more heavy terrorists attacks up to the transfer of power, also expect more attacks on the US Forces. The Government of Iran sees Obama as a threat to its power, thus it will want to force him to take a more hawkish stand, the best way, increase Iraqi violence and allow a thread back to Iran. Also go for the nuclear option, from the position in Iran it is in their interest to force Obama to take up the Bush 43 policies, thus divert attention from the regime.

The Reagan Lesson for Obama, Is Iran the next Poland ?

WSJ: Reports how President Ronald Reagan supported the Solidarity trade union in Poland; through external pressure and internal support for the union; and how this helped finish Communist rule in Poland and as a conaqunce the end of the Cold War. The point of this article is how President Obama should help those in Iran that are opposed to the regime, the article states the following, " The circumstances aren't so different. With similar vision and leadership, the endgame could be the same. " I think there is a difference, the regime in Iran has shown that it knows that it cant show any weakness now, its has gone to far, the repression like the imposition of martial law in Poland in 1981 will get ever harder in Iran, the regime knows that if it falls those that it repressed and friends of those that it killed will come after the leaders of the regime, thus expect Iran to go more like North Korea, it has started down this road already, the arrest of local UK Embassy workers is a PR ploy, it cant allow information freedom or it will face more demonstrations, thus expect a even tighter information flow. The negative effect is that this will hurt the economy of Iran even more, thus more people will get angry, thus this public volcano will explode, it will take the regime to the dustbin of history but will cost the life's of many in Iran. In many respects this is a chance of Obama to show that he is no Jimmy Carter or Neville Chamberlain but we are dealing with a regime that is going to go nuclear if it gets the chance, thus will limit the Obama options. The regime has to go nuclear, it needs some good PR in Iran itself, what better than to become a nuclear power and also it takes any military option off the table for the Obama West Wing. Thus the clock is ticking before a military strike by Israel, Obama in many respects has no choice now, the regime has defined itself but also done a Obama a political favour, he has to become a hawk, doves don't get re-elected, just ask Carter.

Iran - Local UK Embassy Workers Arrested

BBC News: Reports on the arrest of eight to nine local UK Embassy Workers in Iran. Lets me guess, through torture or other means the Government of Iran will get some to confess that they are working for MI6 or the CIA or both, the security forces of Iran have forced the people off the streets, now they are going PR within Iran, they want to shift the focus from the totalitarian regime to the West, also the want to paint Obama as Bush 43. Thus expect more propaganda and arrests. The regime in Iran has shown itself to be in the mold of the old USSR and Nazi Germany.

The Torture of the Opposition in Iran - Guardian

Guardian: Reports that the opposition reformers in Iran have been tortured by the Government of Iran. This shows why the Government of Iran has become a even worse Totalitarian regime, it is seeking forced confessions to show to the public that the protesters are working for the CIA or MI6, the firmer tone of Obama shows that the Obama Administration gets the fact that any talks it had planned with Iran are off the table. President Obama in political terms can not allow the Republicans to define him as another Jimmy Carter or worse Neville Chamberlain. It should be noted that Chamberlain was lucky to get a tea room named after him in the Houses of Parliament. In the Mid Term Congressional Elections the Republicans will use the weak tone Obama had when the elections results came out of Iran against him, they will ask why he didn't support the protesters and why he thought a change of leader would have no effect on the relationship between Iran and the USA. Thus expect Obama to switch policy when it comes to Iran, as with North Korea to be more firmer and less Liberal.

Iranian Government - We will kill the Opposition

The Times: Reports that the Iranian Government is sending out a clear message, it will kill the opposition, it will block information, the survival of the regime matters and nothing else. In pure brutal tactics the Government of Iran has been effective, its has made its own people afraid, it has used violence that would have made Stalin smile, it has blocked the press if not the information. In the short term the regime has been successful but it will fail in the long term, sooner or later the number of young will topple the regime, it will not be peaceful when that revolution comes, the violence of the Government of Iran will be repaid to the regime two fold. The Government of Iran has won this time, next time, and there will be a next time the regime will end up in the dustbin of history, it has destroyed any chance that Obama could talk to the regime, the violence in Tehran and other cities in Iran can be used as a political elbow to needle the Democrats in the Mid Term Congressional Elections. The Republicans will argue that Obama had a chance to support the protesters but was to late, one thing is clear, Israel will bomb Iran.

Obama like Bush 43 - Ahmadinejad

Fox News: Reports that the Conservative hard line President of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has stated that President Obama is like Bush 43 due to his critical comments on the Presidential Election outcome. This in pure political terms works for Obama, it helps Obama, now Republicans will find it harder to be critical of the Obama policy when it comes to Iran. The election was more than a crossroads for Iran, it has defined the Government of President Ahmadinejad as a Totalitarian government, it has shown that the Islamic Republic is in the same mold as the old USSR and Nazi Germany. The killing of its own people by the security structure of Iran has made sure that the regime will end up in the dustbin of history, to join Stalin and Hitler. Also the election has flushed down the toilet the idea that Obama could talk to the Government of Iran, the religious elite has supported Ahmadinejad, thus there is no way that Obama could talk to them, he would like Jimmy Carter and Neville Chamberlain. Thus the election in Iran was important but the consequences will have a major effect on Iran, repression before a bloody revolution and Obama will have to allow Israel to bomb Iran.

Tweets on a Revolution and NYT Update Page

Just few of the nuggets from twitter, have not added Twitter Id to protect those that are sending tweets.

1) Mir Hussein Moussavi is under House Arrest or close as you can get.

2) There seems to be a split in the religious elite, the stolen election has caused a split between those that support the Conservative Government and those that want moderate reform.

3) If in Iran and sending video or pictures, try to add date and time and location. This allows Western Media to confirm through other sources that the Video is valid. Advice if sending info to outside world make sure you hide your ID. No good getting good information out if your get arrested the next day because the authorities can trace you, so be tricky, get the information out but keep your own ID out of the news.

Blood on their Hands - Mir Hossein Mousavi on the Government of Iran

BBC News: Reports on the new critical comments by the leader of the opposition in Iran Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mr Mousavi blames the present crisis in Iran on the Government for stealing the Presidential Election. The problem is that Mr Mousavi is to much a establishment figure, he came in power with the revolution in 1979, the protesters on the streets need a figure who wants to destroy the Islamic Government, what ever you might think of Lenin ( and this blog has a very negative view ) he pushed his revolution. The Russian Revolution bought in to power the Communist Party, that Party kept power from 1917 to 1991. Thus the protesters need a colourful leader who will fight the government will protests and weapons. The Islamic Regime has shown itself to be a Totalitarian Regime, thus what started with a revolution has to be destroyed by a revolution.

Free Fire Zone in Tehran, Iran

Fox News: Reports on the bloodbath in Tehran today, the Government of Iran is using all aspects of the state, from beating up protesters to killing them in free fire zone it seems from the reports from Tehran. The Government of Iran has to careful, it can only kill so many of its people before a call for a new Presidential Election turns in to a bloody revolution, its only fear that is keeping the people from marching on the streets, but fear can turn to bloody anger, if the Government of Iran goes beyond a certain point it will be overthrown, its not that point yet but its close, any more deaths by gunshot and the regime could be end up in the dustbin of history.

CBS News - Bloodbath in Tehran

CBS News: Reports on a demonstration in Tehran, Iran that turned in to a bloodbath when the Government of Iran turned on the violence and lets lose a bloodbath. The Obama White House will find it very hard to talk to Iran after events calm down in Iran, the Islamic Republic has become a even worse totalitarian regime, it now has a President that wants to destroy Israel, has stolen an election and is killing his own people. Thus any plans Obama had for talks with Iran are out of the window, expect more pressure from Israel for the green light for Israel to attack the nuclear plants of Iran, it will be harder for Obama to say No.

More Protests in Tehran, Iran

BBC News: Reports that there have been more protests in Iran today, the repressive regime has used violence to thwart the Demo. As long as the reformers are using the peaceful methods they are going to lose, its that simple, they either need to turn some of the security forces or they need to arm up. If they can turn some of the security forces or the Army they have a chance or they start to arm themselves then they have a chance of creating a new Iran, otherwise Iran will have years of a totalitarian regime that restricts even more of the freedoms of the people. As of now it can be stated that the regime is winning, and freedom is losing.

Tony Blair and Gordon Brown in the Dock of Public Opinion over Iraq

Guardian: Reports that former UK PM Tony Blair and present UK PM Gordon Brown face having to answer questions on Iraq in public. UK PM Gordon Brown made a mistake when he agreed to a Independent Inquiry in to Iraq, he has been forced to move from a secret inquiry to an open inquiry, this could be the final nail in his political coffin. Labour backbenchers might find this is a good reason to dump Brown, they don't need the political circus that will start with such hearings before an election. Thus if the political polls show Labour still in the mid 20s by Xmas time expect Brown to get the call to go, bad polls and the news circus of Brown giving evidence could be the push for Labour to hire a new leader. Also a new leader after Xmas would allow Labour to call an election later on in the year. Iraq cost Tony Blair the keys to No 10, it could also cost the same to Gordon Brown.

More Nixon Tapes

The New York Times: Reports on the release of more Nixon Tapes and Documents. Have to admit I was bored with the constant issue of Watergate, its interesting to see other aspects of the Nixon Presidency. These tapes deal with Watergate, The Vietnam War and Abortion and Israel. Its a pity that Presidents don't record their conversations any more, its like being in the room when historical episodes are under discussion. It would have been interesting to hear Reagan in his first hundred days get his Economic Package through, in that regard Reagan has been compared to LBJ. Also how Reagan ended the Cold War would have been worth a listen. Also Bush 41 and the first Iraqi War and how he planned and won that War. Also how Bill Clinton avoided Impeachment and his other talks!! Of course Bush 43 on 9/11 and the War on Terror and Iraq would have produced interesting lessons. Lets hope Obama like Reagan keeps a Daily Diary.

Missile Threat from North Korea

Fox News: Reports that Communist North Korea will test its short and medium range missiles, this places Japan in the line of fire. The interesting flash point will come if the US Navy stops and inspects a North Korea ship that is suspected of being in violation of a UN resolution when it comes to Weapons of Mass Destruction. If this happens North Korea has promised a strong response, thus lets hope the US Defence Department and South Korea has a plan to cope with any military action by the Stalinist North Korea.

New Obama Message on Iran

White House Blog: Reports on President Obama's new message to Iran and its people. The President states the following, " First, I'd like to say a few words about the situation in Iran. The United States and the international community have been appalled and outraged by the threats, the beatings, and imprisonments of the last few days. I strongly condemn these unjust actions, and I join with the American people in mourning each and every innocent life that is lost.....we must also bear witness to the courage and the dignity of the Iranian people, and to a remarkable opening within Iranian society. And we deplore the violence against innocent civilians anywhere that it takes place......Some in Iran -- some in the Iranian government, in particular, are trying to avoid that debate by accusing the United States and others in the West of instigating protests over the election. These accusations are patently false. They're an obvious attempt to distract people from what is truly taking place within Iran's borders. This tired strategy of using old tensions to scapegoat other countries won't work anymore in Iran. This is not about the United States or the West; this is about the people of Iran, and the future that they -- and only they -- will choose.....The Iranian people can speak for themselves. That's precisely what's happened in the last few days. In 2009, no iron fist is strong enough to shut off the world from bearing witness to peaceful protests [sic] of justice. Despite the Iranian government's efforts to expel journalists and isolate itself, powerful images and poignant words have made their way to us through cell phones and computers, and so we've watched what the Iranian people are doing. This is what we've witnessed. We've seen the timeless dignity of tens of thousands of Iranians marching in silence. We've seen people of all ages risk everything to insist that their votes are counted and that their voices are heard. Above all, we've seen courageous women stand up to the brutality and threats, and we've experienced the searing image of a woman bleeding to death on the streets. While this loss is raw and extraordinarily painful, we also know this: Those who stand up for justice are always on the right side of history....The Iranian people have a universal right to assembly and free speech. If the Iranian government seeks the respect of the international community, it must respect those rights and heed the will of its own people. It must govern through consent and not coercion. That's what Iran's own people are calling for, and the Iranian people will ultimately judge the actions of their own government. " This is the statement that Obama should have put out days ago, in pure political terms it allowed the Republicans to define him, never a good idea in politics to allow the opposition to define your policy. Just ask Jimmy Carter! On the actual Obama policy towards Iran, the idea of talks are out of the window, Obama can not afford to be seen as another Jimmy Carter and Neville Chamberlain. Thus it can be postulated that the regime in Iran through violence and fear will cow the people, the regime will carry on with its policy of becoming a nuclear power, as Obama has set a deadline for the end of the year for talks, it can be theorized that Israel will bomb the nuclear plants of Iran in the new year, Obama can not talk to regime that steals elections, kills its own people and with a President that wants to destroy Israel. Thus the protesters in Tehran and other cities in Iran have defined the regime to the people and the outside world, also it has gutted any idea of talks between Iran and the USA. Thus the brave people of Iran has done a world favour, it has shown that there is evil, the Government of Iran, and that evil has to be contained and destroyed.

UK and Iran

BBC News: Reports on the Diplomatic battle between the UK and Iran. Iran has thrown out two diplomats, the UK has followed suit. This has nothing do with diplomacy, the regime in Iran needs to shift focus from its stealing the Presidential Election to an old enemy, in this case the UK. Its old tactic, it was used in the Cold War by both the West and East, what this really comes down is the fact that the once Islamic regime of Iran has gone totally Totalitarian, the regime has showed itself in its real colours, its not about Islam its about keeping power at all costs. Thus the images we have seen from Iran, the government supported action of violence against the people. There will be a revolution in Iran, when it comes it will be bloody and those that are beating up and killing the innocent will be the first against the wall and shot. The religious elite in Iran have singed their own death warrant, it will come, it might take time but at the end of the day the numbers will overthrow the vile regime and system.

Obama on Iran

Courtesy of the White House: President Obama

White House Blog: Statement by President Obama on Iran. The President stated the following, " The Iranian government must understand that the world is watching. We mourn each and every innocent life that is lost. We call on the Iranian government to stop all violent and unjust actions against its own people. The universal rights to assembly and free speech must be respected, and the United States stands with all who seek to exercise those rights....The Iranian people will ultimately judge the actions of their own government. If the Iranian government seeks the respect of the international community, it must respect the dignity of its own people and govern through consent, not coercion....Martin Luther King once said - "The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice." I believe that. The international community believes that. And right now, we are bearing witness to the Iranian peoples’ belief in that truth, and we will continue to bear witness. " It seems President Obama does not want to be on the wrong side of history, even as expected the religious elite keep control in Iran, the Obama idea of talking to Iran is out of the window. The images from Iran used in a thirty second political commercial would make it very difficult for Obama to talk to the present regime, he would face mauling from the right and Blue Dog Congressional Democrats would disown him, they are up for election next year. Those Conservative Democrats in the House will not allow Obama to define them as appeasers. Thus in many respects the protesters in Iran have defined their government but also gutted the Obama policy of talking to Iran with the present regime in charge.

The Government of Iran vs The People - Who Wins ?

The New York Times: Has an Opinion - Editorial article by Thomas L. Friedman on Iran, Mr Friedman looks back on the 1979 revolution and the events today in Tehran, Mr Friedman writes on what is faced by those on the streets, " But we and the reformers must have no illusions about the bullets and barrels they are up against. " As we have seen the Government of Iran has no morality about shooting its own people, the Government in the past has bought the people off due to its Oil revenue but the present Government has caused massive damage to the economy, thus it could be that the religious elite don't have the money to buy off the protesters, the credit crunch just might have a silver lining after all. The religious elite know that if they bow to the pressure of the protesters its over for them, also the numbers are against them in the long term. Lets be honest I have been critical of the youth of Iran in the past, I was tired of hearing that a majority of the population was under 30, well I stated it was about time for them to get off the dime and did something. They have over a stolen election, the question is do the morale courage to keep the streets even when faced with bullets from the Government, that is the test folks. Lets hope they have a brave heart to face the battle head.

UK PM Brown out in the New Year ?

The Daily Mail: Reports that UK PM Gordon Brown could resign in the New Year. I don't think this will happen, he waited ten years to become PM, he ousted Tony Blair and for him to leave before an election would show great political courage, he thinks the Labour Party has affection for Lord Mandelson, any one under that illusion thinks he can win an election. Thus at a guess it can be argued that Gordon Brown will lead New Labour to the biggest defeat in its history.

Ready for Death - Mir Hossein Mousavi

The Sunday Times: Reports that the Opposition Leader in Iran, Mir Hossein Mousavi is ready for death in his fight over the Presidential Election. Lets be honest here, this can only end two ways for Mr Mousavi, he wins and becomes President of a new Iran or he is a dead man walking. The religious elite will show him no mercy if they win, that goes for the people too, this is Judgement Day Part two in Iran. The next couple of hours and days will show if the people of Iran can follow through, as in 1940 when the UK was alone against Hitler, we either stood up or Hitler would take us over, that is the situation in Iran, but the enemy of the people is the Government of Iran. The question is can Mr Mousavi be their Winston Churchill, or will the good people of Iran faces the darkness of a totalitarian state.

Why the Protests in Iran

The New York Times: An article praising the Obama policy on Iran and rebuking Bush 43, the usual Liberal nonsense from the NYT but while doing this does get to the heart of the protests in Iran, the NYT writes the following based on the views of Iranians talking to pollsters, " it was about Iran and its own problems, notably a highly disputable vote count and the performance of its president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. " Thus it can be argued that this powder keg was set to explode if either Obama or McCain had won in 2008. The point the Liberal NYT misses is the simple fact that if the religious elite keep power after a bloodbath in Tehran the Obama policy is history. There are Congressional Elections in 2010, you can see adverts of Obama if he still tries to talk to Iran being compared to Jimmy Carter or worse Neville Chamberlain, it will argue that Obama will sell out Israel, that his own arrogance could be a problem, Obama sometimes gives the impression that he still thinks he is back at Harvard in a Law Seminar, International Politics is not about finer aspects of the Law, his mistake over Gitmo shows that, its about power and winning for your side, on the word stage and at home. Thus Reagan called the USSR an Evil Empire, the Liberals in the USA went bonkers, they could see beyond their own narrow political ideology, Obama is stuck in that, if he thinks he can talk to Iran after the Government has killed its own people he will lose Congress in 2010 and the Presidency in 2012.

13 Killed by the State - Iran

BBC News: Reports that thirteen people lost their life's yesterday in the Demonstrations in Iran. Other news wires have ten killed and a hundred injured. Also some Twitter reports from Iran state that those taken to Hospital are being arrested, there are confusing reports of those injured yesterday going to Foreign Embassies for help, but also reports of those Embassies being blocked by the forces of the State. This page is about brutal honesty, even with the Demonstrations it can be postulated that the forces of the State have the upper hand, they shoot people, in less the Demonstrators can turn some of the security forces it is going to be a bloodbath in Tehran. In pure political terms this helps Obama and Israel, Obama might have wanted to talk to Iran over its nuclear ambitions but if there is a bloodbath in Iran that is out of the window, Israel can argue that you are not dealing with an Islamic State but a totalitarian state in the mold of Nazi Germany. President Obama had set a deadline for the end of the year for Iran to meet him half way, does not matter now, Obama can not afford to be seen as another Jimmy Carter or worse Neville Chamberlain, he can not appease the religious elite in Iran, thus expect after a bloodbath in Tehran and once the religious elite secure their positions for a while, for Israel to hit the nuclear bases of Iran, harsh but the most likely end of this mess.

Affection for the Dark Prince, Lord Mandelson ?

Telegraph: Reports that UK PM Gordon Brown has stated that New Labour has now developed affection for Lord Mandelson. If PM Brown really thinks that it is time for him to go, the Labour Party as a whole cant stand him, he might win elections but he is New Labour, the one thing the old Labour Party detest more that the Conservative Party is Tony Blair, and who got Blair in to Power, simple one word answer, Mandleson. The PM needs to smell the coffee!!

Elgain Marbles

The New York Times: Reports on the opening of a new museum in Athens to hold classic artifacts, the Greek Government wants the Elgain Marbles back in Greece. The NYT writes the following on the Elgain Marbles, " sections of a decorative frieze that adorned the Parthenon until Lord Elgin ordered them removed in the early 19th century,...". Lets be clear, the UK tax paid for the Elgain Marbles, they belong to the Nation, we bought them we own them, end of subject.

Flash Point North Korean Ship - Kang Nam

Fox News: Reports the US Navy could intercept the North Korea Ship the Kang Nam. As stated in this blog this could be the flash point that leads to conflict between North Korea and the Obama Administration, the selling of WMD is the main export of North Korea, its money keeps the regime going, thus if you halt those exports you are heading for a direct confrontation with North Korea. If the US Navy does force a North Korean ship to go to a Port of Country friendly to the USA, this could lead to a North Korea to test a nuclear bomb and its long range missile. Thus keep an eye on North Korea folks, trouble is brewing.

Judgemenet Day in Iran

BBC News: Reports that the expect demonstration in Iran will go ahead today. This is Judgement Day in Iran, the Ayatollah Khamenei had supported the the outcome of the Presidential Election, thus this is the day, the crossroads for Iran, does it go down a totalitarian path or does it fight for its freedom, that is the simple stark choice, if the people weaken then they are not up to the fight, and it is a fight, this will not be a stroll in the park folks, the Demos should be peaceful but if your attacked you have the right to defend yourself. Lets hope the people are brave, also their leaders. A Day of Destiny in Iran.

Death in Afghanistan

BBC: Reports on the death of a Welsh Guards Soldier in Afghanistan. This brings the total of those killed in combat operations to 140, overall the Afghanistan Operation has seen the death of 169 Personnel of the UK Armed Forces. This total will go up, the question that has to be asked, our brave Armed Forces Personnel are trying their best but what can be achieved, at the end of the day is the fight worth the cost, have my grave doubts about this answer.

In Office with No Power ?

Telegraph: Reports that UK PM Gordon Brown has done a U - TURN over the Independent Secret Inquiry in to the Iraqi War, now it seems he is open to some open elements. That’s the problem for Mr Brown now, he is a weak PM, thus before he was Stalin he would lead and Labour would follow along, now that he is low in the opinion polls and the Cabinet cant be trusted as far as the he could throw them, he has to back down when a policy does not work. His predecessor Tony Blair will not be happy; he was in the frame to the President of the EU. I wonder will the Tony Blair sessions be in the open, under oath, interesting times folks.

Protest in Iran Today

Sky News: Reports on the protest today in Iran over the stolen election and the death of demonstrators. It seems that the religious elite is playing the long game, they will offer crumbs of concessions, then declare that Ahmadinejad has won, they have thrown the western media out, expect a more brutal reaction when they can prevent the protesters sending out information, they have to do this or they lose power, its that simple folks. Lets recall this is not the USSR when those that lead the Revolution in 1917 had no breath in them in 1991, those leaders had meet their makers, those that lead the 1979 revolution in Iran are still about, they have made enemies, enemies who will dispatch them without mercy. Thus if they want to live and keep power they have to go in mob handed, thus expect more blood and more deaths.

The Stark Reality in Iran

The Times: Reports on the political reality in Iran, the State has the Armed Forces and the Internal Police, what does the opposition have, the people. This is why President Obama could be right in his tepid reaction, at the end of the day the people of Iran might find themselves repressed under a brutal Islamic regime and the West has to deal with the reality of that regime with nuclear arms. Also there is a difference between a revolution and a change of faces at the top, the people might want better relationship with the West and more freedoms but their leaders are from the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Thus the real revolution in Iran might have to come later and the opposition will have to arm up, its brutal but that simple. Thus my prediction, I agree with Obama at the most basic political reality, this might not be the time, might be wrong, hope this post is wrong but have my doubts. The youth of Iran have stated their need for freedom but freedom comes at a cost, you sometimes have to fight not with just words but with weapons, so far don’t see the opposition with any tanks, when the arm up Obama’s tone might change, its up to the people of Iran.

Obama and Iran

The New York Times: Reports on the backlash to the Obama position on Iran, the President's reaction has been tepid if your on the streets in Tehran fighting for freedom. Also Obama's comments that both Ahmadinejad and Moussavi share the same Foreign Policy views did not help the people on the street in Tehran. The Liberal NYT writes the following, " officials in Washington are debating whether President Obama’s response to Iran’s disputed election has been too muted. " It can be argued from a Western point of view that President Obama is correct, as stated on Fox News Mr Mussavi when he was PM in the 80s had thousands killed. The question now is his challenge about leadership of the present state or revolution. If all the demos just lead to change of faces at the top but no policy change then Obama is correct in his analysis of this crisis. If Mr Mussavi wants a revolution and wants to take Iran down a new road, then Obama could be wrong. Thus President Obama is following an interesting path, if he is right then his muted views of the events in Iran have been worked, but if he is wrong then he looks like Jimmy Carter, with that President's failure to prevent the revolution in Iran in 1979 and Neville Chamberlain at Munich, Obama would have placed Ahmadinejad as the same to Mussavi. Time will tell folks.

Half Million Protest Stolen Election in Iran

Guardian: Reports that half million people marched in the silent protest today. I expect the religious elite have made their choice, they are going to support President Ahmadinejad, thus expect more arrests of moderates and reformers. The Western Press will either be shut up in their rooms or sent backing from Iran. The communication out of Iran will be halted, lets be clear, the religious elite and Conservative elements know this could be the end of their time in power, thus they will use brute force to stay in power, even if it means taking Iran back to the dark ages. The problem is down the line they religious elite and the Conservative elements wont have the numbers, and when the revolution comes it wont be nice it will be bloody, the first people against the wall and shot will be those that prevent change this time. Freedom comes either through a process of elections or violence, at the end of the day people want freedom, if you stall or try to steal it you are heading for a massive fall, sooner or later it will happen, thus expect Ahmadinejad to hold on to power but expect a bloody revolution down the line.

Silent Protest in Iran, What Next ?

Telegraph: Reports on a silent protest in Iran to demonstrate against the presumed stolen election. The question is what next, there is a call for a massive demos tomorrow, but then what, at the end of the day Ahmadinejad has the Army, the Police and other security forces. The question the opposition has to ask, is this about changing faces or changing regime. It can be advised that if it its about changing faces there is not point getting hurt or killed, it will be the same hard edge Islamic regime. On the other hand it its about a change of regime then this is the time to get out on the streets, make contact with the Army and Police who want change and get them to use force in support of change, that is the choice, this fight can only end in two ways. The positive way is that we see a change of regime, an Iran that is part of the 21 Century with the freedoms that the people want, or a repressive regime that will drag Iran in to a conflict with the USA and Israel.

Iran CRITICAL of USA over Election

The New York Times: Reports that Iran has been critical of the USA over its response to the election in Iran. It can be argued that Obama has been more Jimmy Carter than Reagan, he has stressed that the opposition leader, Mir Hossein Mousavi has the same Foreign Policy as President Ahmadinejad, Mr Mousavi wants a nuclear armed Iran. President Obama and his Iran policy works better with Mr Ahmadinejad as President, he had denied that the Holocaust and now stolen an election. Thus the Obama Administration can go to the UN at the end of the year and state that Iran is going nuclear thus a threat to the region and world security and that the Ahmadinejad regime has stolen a domestic election. Thus in pure power politics terms the Obama Administration needs Ahmadinejad to stay as President, also Ahmadinejad wants to stay in power, thus the use of the Anti - American Card. As stated many times on this blog, Israel will have to clean up the mess, it will have to strike Iran before it goes nuclear.

Call for Demonstration on Thursday - Iran

Fox News: Reports on the call for a mass demonstration on Thursday by the opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi, also that the security forces of President Ahmadinejad are picking up the opposition. Lets be clear folks, if President Ahmadinedjad is not removed Iran has another Hitler/Stalin on its hands. In four years time do you see Ahmadinejad giving up power, thus like Hitler who was elected Chancellor but took over the state, Ahmadinejad will become the state. The religious elite who oppose him will find that they become the enemy of the Islamic state, this could be the last chance for Iran to gain its freedom. Thus its guts and glory time to the youth of Iran, you have to demonstrate, the system can be challenged, millions on the streets and the Army will fold, even the internal security forces will back down, then you win. Keep up the pressure, make it freedom day.

The Revolt in Iran ?

The Times: Reports on the call by the leader of the opposition in Iran Mir Hossein Mousavi for the people to come out to demonstrate against the election result. Lets look at the reality from the Western point of view, would it be easier to get World backing to deal with a nuclear Iran under Ahmadinejad or Mousavi, the simple answer the Obama Administration could get sanctions against Ahmadinejad but it would take time under a new Mousavi Government. Mousavi might seem a reformer but he comes from the system, President Obama stated that last night in an interview, Fox News pointed out that when Mousavi was PM of Iran he had few thousand people killed. Thus we are not dealing with a new Boris Yeltsin. In other words this is not the end of the USSR in 1991. In pure political terms it would be better for Obama if Ahmadinejad was still in power, Ahmadinejad wants to be a nuclear power, thus it will make it easier for Obama to allow Israel to bomb the nuclear sites of Iran. Of course if we are seeing a real revolution in Iran, this could be a new ball game, lets see, lets hope the people get the chance of freedom.

Inspection of North Korean Ships

The New York Times: Reports that the US Navy will request to inspect Ships coming out of North Korea will but will not use force to inspect ships, if the ships refuses the US Navy will request that the next Port of Call inspects these ships. This could lead to a flash point between North Korea and the US Navy, if successful these inspections would cut off the money supply to North Korea, expect North Korea as reported by Fox News to test a third nuclear device and also test its long range missile. The resolution of this crisis has a major impact on Iran, if President Obama is seen as weak over North Korea, Iran will see it as a green light to go nuclear. It can be argued that the religious elite will keep their power in Iran, they have the forces of the Army and the Police on their side, plus they don't play fair, as the deaths yesterday show. Thus watch North Korea and the Sea of Japan folks.

Recount and 7 Dead in Iran

BBC News: Reports that the religious elite in Iran have agreed to a limited recount and that seven people were killed Yesterday during the Demonstrations. How can you have a recount of a stolen election, the votes have been tainted. Also how do you get away with killing your own people. This is the crossroads for Iran, if the moderates cant push Ahmadinejad and limit the power of the religious elite Iran is heading the way of the USSR, Ahmadinejad will be like Hitler, he will take over the state, that is the choice for the moderates and for those in the clergy would like to keep power, Ahmadinejad is a threat to both, lets hope Ahmadinejad is out, otherwise we are seeing the development of a totalitarian state under President Ahmadinejad, like Hitler he will keep on to power no matter what, thus the next few hours will be interesting in Iran.

The Iraqi Whitewash Again!

The Times: Reports on the announcement by UK PM Gordon Brown that an Independent Inquiry on Iraq will be held in private. This is half way house that will please no one, those that opposed the War in Iraq want a public Inquiry with people under oath, those that supported the War but wanted some public viewing will attack the idea as a whitewash. Lets be clear I supported the Iraq War and still do, there is no need for a Inquiry, this half baked idea seems to annoy both sides. It will be seen by the general public as a complete whitewash and a way for Gordon Brown to put the issue beyond the next election, that is pure politics, but worse not good politics. I think we can all agree on one thing, our brave Armed Forces deserve our respect and we should always keep in mind those that paid the ultimate price, thus lets care more about our troops and their families than waisting money on a perceived matter of spin.

Shots that start a Revolution - Iran ?

BBC News: Reports from Tehran that shots have been heard at a demonstration against the result of the election in Iran. I have been impressed that the young people of Iran have come out to demand their rights, I thought the Government had suppressed the protesters. The question is has the Government and the religious elite over played its hand, one thing to steal an election is another to kill people. Lets see if the reformers can hold their ground, this could be their last chance to gain freedom. Freedom is a right not something that is granted by governments, thus the people Iran might have to fight for their freedom, no guts no glory as the old saying goes, do the people of Iran have the guts to walk and fight for freedom, lets hope so, it would be a very positive message from Iran, the whole dynamic of the region could change, lets see, still think the Government of Iran will go in mob handed, the religious elite know if they lose this game its over, might not be overthrown straight away but their power would fade, interesting times in Iran.

Reagan the Model for the 21 Century ?

The New York Times: Reports on the debate within the Republican Party as to the relevance of Reagan Model for winning in the 21 Century. The Liberal NYT points out the Obama view of Reagan, " ( Obama ) offered generous praise for the most celebrated of his recent Republican predecessors. ". This of course drives the Liberal New York Times bonkers, that elite body of reporters think Jimmy Carter was the best President in American History. In other words they have never gotten over the fact that Reagan, ex actor, thus in their eyes not up to the job, ex Governor, far to Conservative for the paper that loved Stalin, become President and become beloved by the American people. The Gipper died in 2004 but if you read the NYT you get the impression that he is running for another term, when will the bone headed Liberals at the Times learn, they could not beat him when he was alive, dead they have no chance. It shows how GREAT Reagan was as President, that nearly twenty years after he left office and five since his death the Times is still fighting the Reagan Legacy, Obama must hope that after he serves two terms as President that his legacy will be fought over twenty years after January 20 2016. One can postulate that Reagan is looking down at the NYT and smiling, he Gipper will always be great.

The Second Front in Waziristan

Telegraph: Reported on the expected second front by the Army of Pakistan in Waziristan on the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. This is tribal area, it will be a tough fight for the Army of Pakistan, its never been under the control of Islamabad, its Tribal loyalties and Conservative nature make it a hard and tough place to fight and to keep. Unlike the Swat Valley this area is better suited to the Taliban/Terrorists, and as stated the Army of Pakistan is not built to fight terrorists, its main aim is to fight India. It will be interesting to see if the Army can really take on the Taliban/Terrorists, the Taliban can always retreat in to Afghanistan, the question is does the West have enough troops to fight them if they are forced crossed the border. The Obama surge is just coming in to effect, the UK is taking heavy losses for its force structure in country. We shall see how the Second Front goes, might work or it might fail, then what..

The Real Iran, No Media Freedom

Fox News: Reports on the blanking out of Independent News from Iran, as with the USSR we are seeing the developing of a Totalitarian State. What ever the Obama Administration wants, the reality is that Iran will not give up its nuclear armed ambitions, it sees how the Obama Administration has had a weak policy to North Korea. Thus while the Obama Administration has a tepid reaction to the stolen election and the beating up of the demonstrators in Tehran the Ahmadinejad Government will follow through with its plans to become a nuclear power, the weakness of Obama shows the shadow of Neville Chamberlain, the UK PM that followed an appeasement policy that lead to World War Two, lets hope the naivety of Obama does not lead to a War in the Middle East.

Valkyrie Review

Just got to see the new Tom Cruise movie Valkyrie, it is based on the plot to kill Hitler by Germany Army Officers in 1944. As I came to movie with some knowledge of the history of that period, unlike the Day of Jackal, I knew that the French President was not assassinated in 1963, but some of the politics was fresh to me, unlike the War period. Thus with that caveat, here goes the review, it was not quite up there with the Day of the Jackal but quite close, the film showed how not to play out a coup, as one of the characters states in the film, the one thing that goes out of the window is a plan when the action starts. I found the script tight and the acting great, Mr Cruise really bought the Stauffenberg Plot alive, it also showed the weak points of the plot. If you no knowledge of the plot or the period this a good place to start, also the DVD has great extras, commentary and historical and film Documentaries.

A Palestinian state, But - Israel

BBC News: Reports on a speech by Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli PM accepted a Palestinian State but placed on conditions on that acceptance, as the NYT states the following, " but on condition that the state is demilitarized and that the Palestinians recognize Israel as the state of the Jewish people. " In other words it was two words to President Obama " Get Lost ", any state worth the name has a military, can control its own skies. A Palestinian State would need its own Army even for internal control, also it might not have an Air Force but it might like one in the future. This is a bit like Iran, the pretence of Democracy that is shallow, thus this offer by the Israeli PM. Those that are kind to read this blog will be a bit surprised by this post, this blog since its creation has defend the right of Israeli to protect itself against any threat but every people have a right to a nation, these conditions are a big veto on any Obama Plan. The Obama Administration might have to place some more pressure on Israel, of course any future Palestinian State could not be a threat to Israel, and also that state would have to accept that Israel is a Jewish State, thus no right of return to those that left Israel after the creation of Israel in the 1940s. This is why US Presidents leave the Middle East for their second term, never good to have a policy go down the toilet, also lets get real, if Iran go nuclear, the USA will need Israel to bomb Iran. Thus Obama does not hold all the aces when it comes to the Middle East, Israel has the final Ace.

Demonstrations in Iran, - The Last chance for Iran

The Times: Reports on the demonstrations last night in Tehran, the Capital of Iran. It seems from the reporting that Iran has stamped out the revolt, thus the Obama Administration will have to deal with an Iran that wants to be nuclear armed, has a close working relationship with North Korea. The UN has passed a resolution that allows UN States to inspect ships coming out of North Korea, one can postulate that North Korea is selling information and parts to Iran as to allow them to go nuclear. One can thus theorize that a clash is going to happen between North Korea and the USA. Thus Obama by the end of the year might have two new wars on his desk, Iran and North Korea.

Arrest of Reformers in Iran

The Times: Reports on the arrest of reformers in Iran. The news wires are reporting that a hundred reformers have been arrested by the Ahmadinejad Government, what has been disappointing is the tepid reaction of the Obama Administration, Democrats had their hackles up in the 200 Presidential Election in the USA when they believed that Bush 43 had stolen the election, the Obama Administration seem more interested in placing pressure on Israel than dealing with Iran in a tough manner.

North Korea and the Bomb

Guardian: Reports that North Korea has acted badly to the tough resolution that came out of the UN after its nuclear and missile tests. North Korea has stated it will weaponise its plutonium material. The UN Resolution states the following, " calling on Member States to inspect and destroy all banned cargo to and from that country ‑‑ on the high seas, at seaports and airports ‑‑ if they have reasonable grounds to suspect a violation. " This could be the flash point between the USA and North Korea but as the NYT pointed out there are some problems with the Resolution, the resolution states the following, " if the flag State ( the Flag of the Country that represents the ship ) did not consent to inspection on the high seas, decided that that State should direct the vessel to proceed to an appropriate and convenient port for the required inspection by the local authorities. " As the NYT points out North Korea runs its own ships, thus North Korea wont agree to have the USA personnel on their ships, but will they agree to China having a look, thus another flash point. Thus you could have a North Korean Ship stopped by the USA but refusing to be inspected and refusing to go to China. If the USA stopped a Ship it would be based on evidence that North Korea was selling WMD. Thus the USA would take action, another flash point. The Sea of Japan could get hot folks.

The Dark Present for Iran

The New York Times: Reports on how President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad stole the election in Iran, it seems that the result was decided before one vote was cast, very North Korea. At least the Obama Administration is now clear what type of regime there is Iran, a hard edge Islamic state that wants the bomb, a government supported by the religious elite who will steal elections and frustrate the will of the people.

The War is not Over - The Dark Prince

The Times: Reports that Lord Mandelson has stated that UK PM Gordon Brown will face another challenge to his leadership at the Party Conference. Mr Brown must rue the day he bought Lord Mandelson back from Europe, to have your future in the hands of the Dark Prince ( he's good at winning elections, but playing with others is another question ) who will state he is loyal before he puts the knife in, what if he gets a better offer, a new leader might make him Foreign Secretary. If I was Brown I would not count at being No 1o at Xmas time, the Dark Prince has your back, the question is when he will knife Brown not if, at the end of the day Mandelson cares about Mandelson, he wants to be Foreign Secretary and if it takes a new PM so let it be, the future is in the hands of Lord Mandelson.

Death in Afghanistan

MOD: Reports on the death of another British Soldier in Afghanistan. Those total of those killed in combat operations has now reached 139. As of 2001 the UK has lost 168 Armed Forces Personnel through combat and other incidents. One can expect more losses in the lead up to the Presidential Election in Afghanistan, also the UK still has no exit route out of Afghanistan, how many more deaths before the voters ask what is the way out of the bloody place.

The Stolen Election in Iran

BBC News: Reports that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been declared the winner in the Presidential Election in Iran. Thus the religious elite has stolen the election for its favourite candidate. This result will mean that there is no chance of talks between the Obama Administration and Iran. Thus at the end of the year the Obama Administration will have a choice, does it accept a nuclear armed Iran or does it allow Israel to attack, those are the simple options, if Obama allows Iran to go nuclear with a President that stole an election he will not win re-election in 2012. Thus as with North Korea, Iran will also define the Obama Presidency.

Stolen Election in Iran ?

BBC News: Reports that President Ahmadinejad is leading in the Presidential Election. It seems my last post was correct, the religious elite are stealing the election, also they don't seem to care how it looks. A heavy turn out was meant to help the opposition but it looks like a top heavy win for Ahmadinejad. The religious elite can never allow talks with President Obama, the moment they have real talks they lose power. Thus another problem for Obama to deal with, lets not forget Korea, one has to wonder is Iran working together with North Korea to place pressure on Obama. Fine words don't cut it in the Middle East Mr President.

Voting in Iran

The Times: Reports of a heavy turn out in the Presidential Election in Iran, this is seen as giving support to the opposition to President Ahmadinejad. If Iran can change path and turn to a more moderate regime this could prevent an Israeli attack on Iran and allow for talks with the Obama Administration. Lets see if the religious elite steal the election, stealing elections is not new to Iran or other countries.

Death in Afghanistan

MOD: Reports that another British Soldier has died in Afghanistan. In all the UK has lost 138 Armed Forces Personnel in combat. In total the Afghanistan death toll stands at 167. This is going to be a long war, more deaths with very little result for the UK and Afghanistan.

3rd Nuclear and Missile Tests by North Korea - Fox News Exclusive

Fox News: Reports that President Obama has been informed by US Intelligence that Communist North Korea will have a third nuclear test and will test its long range missile after the UN approves another resolution that allows UN states to inspects the ships of North Korea. The North Koreans area really showing their contempt for Obama, its like they are repeating the Hillary Clinton line that Obama was not up to that 3am call. Thus since Obama has come in to Office, North Korea has thrown short range missiles like sweats in to the Sea of Japan. They have tested a long range missile that can reach Alaska and Hawaii and have had a successful nuclear test. Also they have taken two American Reporters as hostages. Thus North Korea could define the Obama Presidency more than Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran. The UN if it passes a tough resolution will allow US Ships to inspect the ships of North Korea, this will damage the economic structure of North Korea. The Government of North Korea makes it money by selling WMD to other rogue nations. If the USA can cut this economic gravy train then North Korea will either have to talk to the Obama Administration or Korea will go hot on the military front. Lets hope Obama's arrogance is matched by his action, if not it could get bloody in Korea.

Never Ending History - Roman Skulls

Guardian: Reports that Roman Skulls have been found in Dorest, the reason for their burial could be down to War or Illness. That is why history is great to study, always something new even if two thousand years old. Lets hope the skulls had nothing to do with Emperor Claudius, have a fondness for the old guy, if your at the bottom sometime in your life you have a fondness for Claudius, the Imperial Family thought he was a fool and he also had a stammer, thus the soft spot.

The Ronald Reagan Dream

Guardian: Reports that Russia might agree to be part of the USA Missile Defence Shield by allowing part of the system to be established on its soil. If the USA and Russia can come to an agreement on the missile shield this would fulfil the dream of President Reagan of the USA and Russia working together against rogue states. In this day and age, Iran and North Korea is as much a threat to Russia as the USA. This would be a wise move by Russia, it would really finish the Cold War, and would develop a close military relationship between Russia and the USA. Lets hope they take this chance for their own security and that of the West.

H1N1, 2009 = 1918 or 1968 ?

The Times: Reports that the World Health Organization will declare that the H1N1 Flue is a pandemic. The H1N1 Swine Flue is not like 1918 when tens of millions fell due to its effect, as the Times reports in 1968 a million fell. Lets be honest if I was to ask you what was the major story in 1968, it could be argued that you would state the following, the deaths of RFK, Martin Luther King, the Vietnam War, that LBJ would not run in the 1968 Presidential Election. Hands on heart how many of you knew that in 1968 there was a pandemic. Thus lets keep calm, so far the deaths are nothing like those that die during the " ordinary" flue season, also in 1918 the world was coming out of World War One, thus the Spanish Flue or Bird Flue had a major effect. Thus follow the advice of the UK Government, wash your hands.

A Chance for a New Start for Iran ?

The New York Times: Reports on the election in Iran and the opposition to President Ahmadinejad, the NYT writes the following on the election process in Iran, " The country’s theocratic rulers weed out all but a few ideologically acceptable candidates before each election. " Thus the West might find that in the eyes of Iran a new leader is seen as moderate but to the West there is no difference. Also the Religious Elite will have seen what happens when you let your guard down, as was the case with the USSR. When the KGB had tight control of the population in the USSR the Communist Party of the USSR had full control, when the Cold War ended up on the ash heap of history it was followed by the USSR. It can be argued that the Obama Administration is a major threat to to the Religious Elite in Tehran, they can not afford to talk to President Obama, it will be the first crack in the control of the country that is held by the Religious zealots. Thus expect a Chicago type election, in other words stolen. I will predict that President Ahmadinejad will get re-elected and Iran will go nuclear, that will cause an Israeli strike and for Iran to hit Iraq, thus a limited war with the USA.

British Terrorist on Hunger Strike in USA

The Times: Reports that a British Terrorist held in the USA; Richard Reid; who tried to blow up a plane mid air has gone on hunger strike. Good Riddance to Bad Rubbish, let him kill himself, the tax payer wont have to fork out for the pleasure of keeping him for years.

North Korea - USA Nuclear Protection for its Allies, ACT OF WAR

Fox News: Reports that North Korea has heated up the tension in Asia, North Korea has stated that the USA protection for South Korea and Japan is an Act of War. One has to ask the question, does North Korea leadership have a death wish, all the olive branches from the Obama Administration has been snubbed. North Korea has driven its senior Ally, China up the wall, never a good idea, thus the question what in the hell does North Korea want, it can be postulated that is the question being asked around the World. Lets see if we can connect the dots, lets start from the ground up, North Korea has taken two US reporters as hostages, they want a high delegation visit, the rumours doing the rounds is that Al Gore is in the frame, he owns the TV channel that employees the reporters. Thus you have a former Vice - President and Nobel Winner as a non - diplomatic visitor but a Presidential Envoy in all but name, then you launch a long range missile that can reach the USA. This could turn a Gore visit from getting the reporters out to solving the North Korea problem, but the question is why, what ever Gore could offer is on the table now, so this can be discounted, so what next, take out Al Gore and replace him with Bill Clinton, a Former President and husband of the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. But the USA could not send Bill Clinton, Obama can not afford to be seen as weak when it comes to North Korea, one simple reason Iran again. One does feel one is going around in circles when it comes to North Korea. I blame Jimmy Carter, in the early 1990s Bill Clinton was close to using military force to prevent this mess but he was out foxed by Jimmy Carter, thus advice to Obama, don't trust Carter with your Foreign Policy.

UN Gets Tough with North Korea

The New York Times: Reports that the UN is getting ready to be tough with communist North Korea, the five permanent members of the UN have agreed tough measures from the inspection of ships to financial sanctions on North Korea. The Times writes the following on the inspection of North Korea ships by UN States, ".... they have “reasonable grounds” to believe if it contains material related to the nuclear program or weapons. It says any such material should be seized. " This could be a trigger for North Korea to take military action, also it could cause problems for the Obama Administration, what if the USA inspects a ship and it contains nuclear material on the way on Iran. This could be Cuban Missile Crisis all over again, the question is Obama up to the standard of JFK. Also there are the two US reporters being held by North Korea, also North Korea is looking like its planning other missile launches, from short to long range missiles. The NYT reported of late that the Obama Administration has thrown in the towel with the idea that North Korea can be persuaded to give up its missiles and its nuclear bombs. Thus expect more tension in the region folks, no easy answers, North Korea is a nuclear power, it can launch short range nuclear missiles, thus expect South Korea and Japan to go nuclear within a few years.

The Liberal New York Times and Afghanistan

The New York Times: It has started folks, the Liberal New York Times thinks its can win the war in Afghanistan, the extreme left wing Times states the following on what should be US policy in Afghanistan, the Times in an Editorial states the following on cutting the death toll Afghanistan, " Reducing that toll will require tighter and more strictly enforced rules of engagement. " The Editorial on the surface is arguing for intelligent use of power but this is the Times, what it really wants is to get out of Afghanistan, but it can say that because its Obama's Just War. Thus expect more negative stories on Afghanistan, as this blog has stated, the Times cares more about the rights of terrorists than those of its fellow Americans, that should be no great shock, the Liberal New York Times covered for its friend Stalin in the 1930s.

Ashes to Ashes 2nd Season

Really loved the 2nd season of Ashes to Ashes, this season more darker, and Alex stopped thinking that Gene, Chris and Ray was a construct of her sub conscience. It was great drama that you really felt disappointed in Ray and Chris, Ray when he become a Mason and Chis of all people was bent. It was nice that these characters had a chance to shine but also the writers in this season really stepped up to the plate when it came to Gene Hunt and Alex Drake, they made their chemistry feel real, also the series had a number of sub plots, Alex wanting to get back to her time, but also it was interesting to see the different cases, the sub plots. Cant wait for the third season, what will I watch now, no Ashes to Ashes or the Apprentice. My God a year of Gordon Brown, can I go back to 1981.

Taking on North Korea - The Obama Administration

The New York Times: Reports that US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has stated that the USA could start to inspect North Korean ships. This would be a tough move by Obama, it would show that the USA was no longer going to play games with North Korea, a game that allowed North Korea to hold all the aces. One can postulate that this news has a link to the recent news that two us reporters have been jailed for 12 years. If Obama is tough with North Korea then his Middle East policy might have a chance, Israel would see that Obama can be tough enough to deal with Iran, and the Middle East countries would see that Obama can follow through, thus his pressure on Israel not to build new settlements on the West Bank. As stated before, the Obama Policy in Asia leads all the way back to Tehran in Iran. One false move by Obama in Asia and he could a arms build up with Japan and South Korea, and Iran going nuclear.

Minister Resigns - Jane Kennedy, OUT, No Longer Loyal to Brown

Telegraph: Reports on the resignation of as Junior Minister, Jane Kennedy. It seems from the news reports that PM Gordon Brown asked Mrs Kennedy for her loyalty but Mrs Kennedy refused and thus was sacked. But the spin from No 10 is that Mrs Kennedy wanted to resign and that PM Brown didn't ask for her loyalty. I will make a prediction, Brown will survive, the Cabinet has shown that they are political cowards, the Junior ranks are to afraid for their futures in the Labour Party and Brown will lead Labour to a massive defeat in 2010.

The Gamble by North Korea

The Times: Reports that two American Reporters have been jailed by North Korea for 12 years. This is crafty gamble by North Korea, its a simple rouse, it will force the USA to deal with them one to one, the Times reports that former Vice - President Al Gore could be sent to North Korea to have discussions about getting the reporters out, they work for his company, the Obama Administration will have to make sure that Gore does not pull a Jimmy Carter and start discussions on subjects outside the main issue, getting the reporters out. The Obama Administration will also have to be careful, the US Press Elite will start to put pressure on Obama to do something, one of its own have been taken, the same thing could happen to reporters form the NYT,CBS,NBC,ABC. Thus it seems that North Korea has all the aces in the pack, the UN is nowhere, the region might develop a arms race and Iran will see the Obama weakness as a green light to go nuclear.

EU Poll Prediction and Result

My EU Poll Prediction:



Conservative 29%
UKIP 20%
LibDem 19%
Labour 17%
Greens 7%
Others 8% ( Plaid, SNP, etc)

The actual result in the EU Poll, minus Scotland and N. Ireland:

Conservatives 27%
UKIP 17%
Labour 16%
LibDem 14%
Others 26%

On the whole I am happy with my predictions, just one or two percent out on the whole. I missed the downgrade in the LibDem vote.

Blair vs Brown, The Final Match

The Times: Reports on the call by Tony Blair's Lord Chancellor, Lord Falconer for PM Gordon Brown to resign. Lord Falconer is a close friend of Tony Blair, in their younger days they shared a flat. Lord Falconer did state that he had not talked to the former PM. Lets say I am a cynic on that count. This is the final battle between Blair and Brown, it can be postulated that Blair can see the future, New Labour destroyed in the General Election next year, he does not want that for Labour or his reputation, expect former heavy guns to come out, this is their final chance, if they do not remove Brown he will be in power in till 2010. The Cabinet are political cowards, they are afraid to lose their chauffeurs and perks of the job, thus its down to Labour backbenchers.

Brown SHOULD GO

In politics there comes a time to go, on most occasions its not your choice, your polls are low, the Party does not want you, and the voters would rather talk to the tax man. This is the moment for Gordon Brown, the PM once considered Stalin is now Mr Bean Minus, he holds power on the whim of Lord Mandelson, the Dark Prince of the Art of Politics, will keep in power then when a better deal comes down the road, will flush Brown down the toilet. If PM Brown wants some respect he should go now and get his new Home Secretary as the next PM. If Brown holds on to power he will find, that he is in office but with no power, does an intelligence man like Brown want that fate.

EU Poll Failure, More Trouble for Brown

Guardian: Reports, if Labour has a bad day in the EU vote, PM Brown could face more problems. Labour had the chance to get rid of Brown after the Council vote, it failed, the Cabinet are political cowards, Labour is stuck with Brown in till 2010.

Dark Heart and Lies, Blair on Brown

The Mail: Reports on a withering attack on PM Gordon Brown by his predecessor Tony Blair. The Mail reports that Mr Blair has accused Mr Brown of having a dark heart and of telling lies. Lets see if this gets any traction in the press.

Mandelson Saved Brown

Telegraph: Reports that PM Gordon Brown was saved from being thrown out by the Cabinet by Lord Mandelson. It is a shame to see a politician of the gifts of Gordon Brown being under the thump of Lord Mandelson. PM Brown will now never bee seen in the same league of Lady Thatcher. Is power that important to Brown.

War at 10 Downing Street, Balls vs Mandelson

The Sunday Times: Reports that a War has developed between the Schools Secretary Ed Balls and the 1st Secretary, Business Secretary Lord Mandelson. That is the problem for PM Gordon Brown, Lord Mandelson is great at the dark arts of politics, like winning elections but does not work well with others, Ed Balls has long been a close aide to Brown, he was promised that he would be made Chancellor of the Exchequer in the Cabinet reshuffle but Brown was weak, his protector Mandelson it can be postulated told him that Balls was even less popular than Mandelson with Labour backbenchers, thus he didn't get the job. The problem is that Mandelson as stated is the Dark Prince of Elections, great for getting you elected but your political career should not be based on his support, thus PM Brown has gone from Stalin to Mr Bean to a drunken sailor that has to protected against himself, poor Brown.

Sexiest Brown - Flint

BBC News: Reports on the resignation letter of Caroline Flint, the Europe Minister. The followings lines are quite brutal, Ms Flint writes the following on her treatment by Brown, " Several of the women attending Cabinet - myself included - have been treated by you as little more than female window dressing. " Ms Flint in essence states that PM Brown runs a all male club with a few exceptions for PR. What is odd about the resignation is that Ms Flint came out at 10 last night to support PM Brown, but she made a political mistake, never give political support when needed in less you get something in return, thus Ms Flint should have gotten a Cabinet Job Offer before supporting PM Brown after the Polls closed. As to PM Brown he has survived the resignation last night of a Cabinet Minister and the bad Poll results, in less Labour MPs have the backbone to remove him, he will lead Labour in to defeat in 2010.

US Reporters on Trail in North Korea

The New York Times: Reports that two US reports will face trial today in North Korea. President Obama is great at rhetoric, but his weakness of action over North Korea has shown that he is weak. In Prague on his Apology tour he stated that WORDS MATTER, well Obama has condemn North Korea and what happens, they test a second nuclear bomb, also test their short range missiles. It is reported that North Korea is getting ready to launch another long range missile, one can postulate that Obama will do nothing after North Korea launches a second long range missile. At the end of the day Japan will have to go nuclear, as it can not trust Obama to defend it, thus South Korea will also go nuclear. Israel will have to decide if it can trust a Liberal President to come to its aid should Iran become a nuclear threat, North Korea has sold its technology to Syria and Iran, Israel had to have an air assault to prevent Syria going nuclear, at the end of the day Israel has to protect its own people, the Obama rhetoric has one flaw, it has no backbone. Thus President Obama is a great communicator but he is no Reagan, Reagan could back up his wise words with a action, the problem is no thinks Obama will really take on Iran, thus it will have to be Israel. One can postulate that Obama will not be added to the list of great Presidents after 1945, FDR, Truman,JFK and Reagan, he is just to weak.

The Demise of PM Brown ?

The Times: Reports that the political knifes will be out for PM Gordon Brown at 10pm tonight when the polls close in the Euro and Council Elections. This cold be the tipping point folks, one way or another, either New Labour will have the backbone to throw Brown out or we are stuck with a weak government for a year. If Labour does not act, expect a year of bad polls for Labour, the Party will go in to a battle of the death, if Labour does not act they will regret it for decades. Its 50/50 if a new Leader could make a difference, but its a 100% if Brown is still PM next year that Labour will go down to a defeat even more epic than the once faced by the Conservative Party in 1997. So Labour MPs if you want to save your seat and your party, it time to get the carving knife out and cut beat, the Health Secretary looks like the man to lead the Party, Ex - Postman, has the common touch and has not be effected by the expenses scandal. Thus expect a bloodbath either way after 10 folks.

VOTE

Vote Conservative in Euro and Council Elections

Vote for Change, Vote to throw PM Brown Out

Vote for Courage from Labour, throw out Brown

VOTE CONSERVATIVE

Ronald Reagan Statue on Capital Hill

Fox News: Reports on the new statue of President Ronald Reagan on Capital Hill the home of the US Congress. It was very moving ceremony, Nancy Reagan with tears in her eyes gave a fine speech before unveiling the statue to the world, also Mrs Reagan was very gracious in having warm words for Speaker Pelosi. It was nice to see both Republican and Democratic Leaders present at the ceremony.

Death in Afghanistan

MOD: Reports on the death of another British Soldier in Afghanistan, the death total due to combat operations is now 137; in Iraq the UK lost 136; those that have died of accidents, illness or other incidents stands at 29. In total the death total since the UK went to Afghanistan in 2001 has now risen to 166. The UK Armed Forces will also have to deal with the expect Summer months of combat operation in the lead up to the Presidential Election in Afghanistan. There is no EXIT route out of Afghanistan, more deaths and more blood, at lest the UK government can make sure that our Armed Forces get all the kit they need, this should not be like World War One, we might not have another David Lloyd George to clean up the mess of the Government.

Kim Jong Un - Next North Korean Leader

The Times: Reports that Kim Jong Il the Stalinist leader of North Korea has announced that his son, Kim Jong Un ,25, will be his successor. Thus it can be postulated that the show of power by North Korea has more to do with the internal politics of North Korea, it could be the father showing his Generals that he is still in charge before handing over power to his son. This could be a chance for the Obama Administration to solve the North Korea problem, how about inviting Kim Jong Un to Washington D.C, this could be helpful in two ways, getting beyond the present problems but also helping establish Kim Jong Un as the next leader of North Korea. A helping hand by Obama might go down well in North Korea. Lets face it, nothing else seems to have worked at present.

UN = League of Nations

Fox News: Reports that Russia and China are going slow over new sanctions for North Korea. If the UN in the 21 Century is to be effective its Resolutions should mean something, North Korea just laughs at the UN, this foot dragging by Russia and China in the long run will hurt the UN and Russia and China. North Korea will become more bolder, aka Nazi Germany in the 1930s, this could lead to major conflict, the League of Nations failed in the 1930s and this lead to World War Two, it would be a shame if the UN lead to a nuclear conflict in Asia.

Obama on Bill Clinton " lying, engaging in bald-faced lies "

Politico: Has got hold of advance copy of Renegade, The Making of a President by Richard Wolffe. The book looks at the 08 Campaign and how Obama destroyed the well oiled Clinton machine. Lets recall the Democratic Race for President had its dirty period, the view of President Obama of Bill Clinton is interesting, the article states that the President told the books author the following on Bill Clinton and his actions in the Campaign, the President stated that Clinton was " lying, engaging in bald-faced lies". Thus one can see why President Obama has had favourable words for President Ronald Reagan but been very quiet on Bill Clinton. Lets recall the Obama Administration has Clinton in a box; with Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State; if he wants to change a tie he needs Obama White House to give him the green light. Looks like an interesting book, but read the reviews of the book first, that's from the left and right. But it seems to have some good stuff within its covers.

Obama and Al Qaeda

BBC News: Reports that Al Qaeda is critical of the Obama visit to Egypt. If Obama has Al Qaeda rattled that is good, the problem is that Obama is fine with rhetoric but the follow through is weak. As with North Korea the USA has been tough on the PR front but no action, this has given the impression that Obama is an empty suit. All wind and no push, thus expect fine words from Obama in Egypt but no follow through, Iran will see his weakness as a green light to go nuclear, this will force Israel to attack Iran, this will destroy any Obama Middle East Peace Plan. The difference between Obama and Reagan is simple, Reagan was a Great Communicator but he had a bold Agenda, Obama has the rhetoric but he has the old Liberal Agenda. Thus one can discuss the Reagan Revolution but after either one or two terms it will be hard to call Obama a Revolutionary President.

Invasion of South Korea by the North ?

The Times: Reports on the prospects of a North Korean invasion of the South. A quick invasion and the taking of Seoul might not be that mad, North Korea has a million man army, South Korea has the better trained US Armed Forces and equipment, but a million man army could just be to much for South Korea. What if the North can take control of the South, what would the Obama Administration do, could they repel the North with conventional forces, problem they are stuck in Iraq and Afghanistan, would Obama go nuclear, have my doubts, so you see not that mad. This is why Obama has to get tough with North Korea, he might look weak and the North could just march in to the South, the Obama Presidency would be over before it started, he would be the President that lost South Korea to a Stalinist North Korea.

Woodward on the Obama Trail

The New Republic: Reports that Bob Woodward of Watergate fame is on the Trail of the Obama Administration. I enjoyed all three Woodward books on Bush 43, lets see how he does on Obama. It would be interesting to see how the new Obama Administration developed policy on Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, North Korea, Iran and the War on Terror. Also it will be interesting to see how Woodward treats Obama, so far the Elite Media has treated him as the secular second coming, he's a Chicago Politician after all, lets hope Woodward is as balanced as he was on Bush 43. Also it will be interesting to see who talks to Woodward, how in control of the message is the Obama Machine.

Nancy Reagan without President Reagan

Vanity Fair: Reviews a forthcoming article on Nancy Reagan, it shows that Nancy Reagan has a fine political mind, she states that Obama could have used her support for Stem Cell Research to outflank Conservative Republicans. One wonders what President Reagan would have made of President Obama, yes another great communicator but what about his Agenda, one can postulate that Reagan would have seen Obama as another LBJ, a Big Government Liberal from Chicago. On the other hand Obama has called Reagan a Great President, not Bill Clinton it should be added. Read of the Day.

50 billion =60% of GM= Sick man of the West

The UK in the 70s drunk on gov money, the USA making the same mistake! At the end of the day the Obama Administration will have to give more money to General Motors or should that be Government Motors. This US Government support for a Car Manufacture distorts the industry, President Obama stated this afternoon that his Administration would not interfere in the decisions that GM would have to take in the future after it comes out of Bankruptcy, but the Obama Administration wants GM to produce cars that fits its Green polices, in the long term it might be wise to move to electric cars, but in the short term can the middle class afford electric cars or fuel efficient cars, President Obama stated the following this afternoon, " In short, our goal is to get GM back on its feet, take a hands-off approach, and get out quickly..." But the President later stated the following, " So I'm confident that the steps I'm announcing today will mark the end of an old GM, and the beginning of a new GM; a new GM that can produce the high-quality, safe, and fuel-efficient cars of tomorrow; that can lead America towards an energy independent future; and that is once more a symbol of America's success. " Thus GM is an arm of the Obama Administration, lets recall the UK in the 1970s folks, Government was a major player in Industry, the result a disaster, and millions out of work when the Governement stoped the Spending. Thus Obama is Old Labour, thus as with New Labour, the New Democrats of Bill Clinton have been thrown off the cliff by the old guard big city Liberals. This is why Obama will lose in 2012.