The Economic Market and Oil

The New York Times: Reports on the recent 330+ dive in the US Stock Market, the article notes the following reasons, " Oil prices tumbled below $50 a barrel on Monday, spooking global financial markets....Worries about Greece’s ability to stay in the eurozone have reasserted themselves in recent days, for instance. The dollar continued its surge against the euro on Monday. "

Lets Get Real:

There is a glut of oil, thus prices will fall, the old producers of oil from the Middle East can not afford to cut back as they will lose their market share, as noted in the article there are other gas providers that can cover any space in the market.   What is also noted is that Greece is back on the table, there is a snap General Election this month, the left wing Party is expected to win, the Party has stated that it wants better terms from the EU, the Germans have said NO.  The German tax payer is not going cover to the promises of a left wing Party in Greece.   Thus either the LEFT in Greece fold or Greece is out of the Euro, either by its own choice or thrown out.   The benefit to the West of lower oil prices can be found in the fact that the UK Coalition Government will be heading in to an election with oil prices down.   That always looks good for the voter.   On the international field the low price of oil really hurts Iran and Venezuela, thus they need a deal with the US to get sanctions off, with a Republican Congress the Oval can whistle for any sanctions removed.   It will be interesting to see how the markets react tomorrow, will people still sell shares or start to buy as share prices get lower. 

The Republican Race for President - Election 2016

Telegraph: Reports " Mike Huckabee shakes up crowded 2016 Republican field with White House move..The Evangelical social conservative quits TV show to ponder presidential run "

Lets Get Real:

This is what Jeb Bush needs, as long as the Conservative vote in the Republican Primary fight is split among various candidates he can come through in the middle.  That is not to say Huckabee can not win, he is good on TV and is a evangelical conservative, he might even be a good VP to Bush.    This is very early, more candidates the better, looks like an interesting Republican race.   Also it can be expected that Governor Perry of Texas will run, as he has finished his term, also Senator Cruz of Texas.  Senator Paul the Republican has a problem, he can't run for re-election and run for the President in his home State.   There are many more candidates but the above are the front runners. 

IS Update - Iraq - The New War on Terror

Guardian: Reports " US troops begin training Iraqi military forces at bases in Anbar and Taji "

Lets Get Real:

This training by the US forces will take time, the very new Iraqi Army has to learn to walk before it can run, there have been reports that the Baghdad Government want to take the fight to Mosul.   As stated by this blog that is not a great idea, as of the moment the new Iraqi Army is getting good PR with its small victories, it can not afford to give that PR value away in a rush to take major towns and cities.   In close combat the Iraqi Army will not have the air support of the US Air Forces, as the Oval Office would not want to see images of innocent people getting killed by US air attacks.   This new war on terror will last in to the next administration, there is no rush, IS can be defeated but it will take time. 

Hillary Clinton and 2016 - Presidential Election of 2016

CNN - Politics: Reports on the prospects for Hillary Clinton running in 2016, the article notes the following, " For months, pro-Clinton Democrats have pointed to early January -- particularly Jan. 15 -- as a symbolic date for Clinton's presidential aspirations.  "

Lets Get Real:

IF Secretary Clinton is NOT going to run in 2016 she has to tell her supporters in 13 days time, if there is no answer in the negative then her supporters and the money will understand that she is running for President.   It would be a political disaster for the Clintons if Hillary decides not run and says so in a few months time, her supporters would peeved that they have kept supporting a non candidate and the money would be searching for a new candidate.   This blog thinks that HC ( Hillary Clinton ) will run, but she will know that only Bush 41 was a successor to his President through election, as VP to Reagan, it was seen as Reagan's third term. , before that it had been decades since that happened.  Lets recall Hillary Clinton was the Obama's first Secretary of State, it depends how the Obama poll ratings are in 2016.  It will be interesting race, a re-match in a way, a Bush vs. Clinton.  Who will WIN, months of polls. 

IS Update - Part 2 - War on Terror

Telegraph: Reports " Coalition launches airstrikes on 'capital' of Islamic State..Unconfirmed reports that raids on Raqqa also included failed bid to free Western hostages  "

Lets Get Real:

IF it is true that US Special Forces launched and failed to free any Western hostages then a bad start to the new year for the Oval Office, as reported two Italian females hostages held in Syria are under threat of death, if they have not been found then it gets harder to get them out.   In a way they are a safety shield for the terrorists.   The hostage rescue mission has not be confirmed as noted in the article, if it did happen it should come out in the next few hours.  President Obama does like to use Special Forces, JFK also liked to use them, as they can get the job done and normally in and out before the enemy knows what has hit them.   One does wonder how many places there are to bomb in Syria and Iraq with military value. 

IS - Update

Guardian: Reports " The US and allies staged 23 air strikes on Islamic State (Isis) targets in Syria and Iraq on Thursday, the Combined Joint Task Force said on Friday. "

Lets Get Real:

The air attacks on IS is daily, the next phase is how long can the US and its Allies prevent the new Iraqi Army from trying to take Mosul, any move by the Baghdad Government on Mosul will need the support and assistance of the US and UK on the ground.   Thus far the Iraqi Army is making small gains outside of Baghdad, but as stated by this blog and many experts any large town action will need Western support.   That time must be coming close for the Oval Office.   Also an Al Qaeda franchise group in Syria has two female hostages who have stated in a video that they are under threat of death, one expect that the Rome Government will pay for the return of their hostages, how does this figure in for the bombing strategy or does it, its a harsh World in the Middle East. 

Hamlet of the Hudson Dies - Mario Cuomo

BBC News: Reports " Three-time Democratic Governor of New York Mario Cuomo has died just hours after his son Andrew was inaugurated for a second term as governor, his family says. "

Lets Get Real:

It sad for New York and the Democratic Party, Governor Cuomo was called the Hamlet on the Hudson because he could never make his mind up to run for President. The article notes the following, "  He was urged by the Democrats twice to run for the White House - in 1988 and 1992 - but on each occasion rejected their overtures. "  As this blog in US election terms is on the centre right the Governor was never going to get praise for running or not running, a clever man can sometimes talk himself out of things, or a better man knows he does not have what it takes to be President.  EITHER way sad day for Cuomo Family and liberals.