The UK and the Syrian Rebels - Syrian Update

Guardian: Reports that the UK Foreign Secretary William Hague has stated the following about arming the Syrian rebels, " ..no decision made to arm opposition to President Assad, but insists it can be done in containable way  ".

Lets Get Real:

If the US wants the UK to be part of a solution to the Syrian Civil War the Oval will have to lead, Obama, Cameron and President Hollande of France will have to shame the Conservative backbenchers who oppose arming the Syrian rebels because of Iraq and Afghanistan.   This would place the Liberal Democrats and the Labour Party against the Obama Oval and France, that should be enough to force Labour leader Ed Miliband to support the Conservatives, thus the Liberal Democrats will not matter, but for this to work the Oval and President Obama will have to take a major role, the UN gave cover for the UK to take down Gaddafi of Libya, the Russians are not going to give UN cover for any action in Syria, they want to keep their warm water port, thus its real politic time.   Syria is the more complex Bosnia Crisis of the 1990s, but a Assad win could cause a regional disaster, the refugees in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey will not go home if Assad wins and thus causing the prospect that the Kingdom of Jordan could fall, Lebanon could return to Civil War and tensions could develop further in Turkey, a NATO member.  Thus folks the Oval can not lead from behind, its far to late for that folks. 

The US and North Korea

BBC News: Reports that the US and South Korea have a given a frosty reply to the call by North Korea for high level talks with the US. 

Lets Get Real: 

This could be a mistake by the US, this blog can see why the frosty reaction, the North Koreans have gone back on their word more times than this blog has had a healthy dinner, the North can not be trusted, but on the other hand they have gotten back in to their box and the rhetoric has been less warlike, the Oval could sent Secretary Kerry to see what they want, lets face it the US talked to the USSR and China whose leaders had millions of deaths on their hands, Stalin being the classic example, lets see if this latest call is just a trick, the Oval might as well give it a try, the North is a nuclear armed power, the US and its Allies are not going to bomb them, so might as well talk, that the point of not allowing Iran to get the bomb folks.   As the Gipper stated, Trust but Verify. 

NYT and Obama/Syria - Syrian Update 4

The New York Times: Has a Editorial attack on former President Bill Clinton and Senator McCain when it comes to Syria, the article states the following, " Mr. Obama has also come under increasing attack from a small number of American politicians, including President Bill Clinton who this week said Mr. Obama risks looking “lame” for not doing more to help the rebels. It was a cheap shot leveled at an event hosted by Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona, a leading advocate of aggressive action in Syria. ".

Lets Get Real:

Thus the NYT is no fan of Bill Clinton, the uber liberal NYT in its heart of hearts after Iraq does not want the US to take ANY military action, but even the pure liberal NYT gets the fact that President Obama boxed himself in with his red line comment over Syria, unlike Libya the Oval can not lead from behind when it comes to Syria, if the US is going ALL IN, the Oval has to the public face of this action, it can not be down to UK PM Cameron and President Hollande of France, the disaster that is the Syrian Civil War is having regional results that could lead to the pro Western Government of Jordan to fall, for Lebanon to return to Civil War and we have seen Turkey having its own internal problems, the over million refugees of Syria has spread over the region, they are causing internal problems, if Assad WINS, the refugees might never go home, thus more pressure for Oval to deal with the Assad problem.   The Oval might have to risk losing the uber liberal NYT, that could make him a great President, so what will it be Mr President, greatness or coffee with the NYT. 

The Clinton Factor - Syrian Civil War - Syrian Update 3

CNN - Politics: Reports on remarks by former President Bill Clinton, the former President stated that the US should be more active in Syria, these remarks were before the latest developments.

Lets Get Real:

Lets be clear folks, Bill Clinton can not stand President Obama, why should he, the 08 Campaign called him a racist, Bill Clinton is a lot of things, but he is no racist, it has been argued that he was in fact was the first Black President, as he understands and enjoys black culture, thus the race card attack must have hurt, also his wife when she become Secretary of State was not part on the Kitchen Cabinet, as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton pressed to Oval to take more forceful action in Syria, she did not get her way.   The latest move by the Oval to support the Syrian rebels is down the ground won by the Assad Regime, and the critical reaction of Western allies to the lack of US action, but it would be interesting know how the Oval reacted to a critic of a policy by a former President, a President  who dealt with Bosnia after years of doing nothing, and was marched in to Kosovo by the UK PM Tony Blair, at least Clinton acted, also the Oval must be afraid that the Clinton Camp will start to take political shots at the Oval as way to distance itself from the Oval should Obama's polls tank over the next three years.   Politics at its heart can be quite personal, does President Obama want to make Clinton the wise old man of US Foreign Policy while he seen as weak, another Carter, one has doubts folks. 

A No Fly Zone for Syria ? - Syrian Update 2

Guardian: Reports the following on the US policy change towards Syria, " Washington in talks with allies over radical options including no-fly zone as plan for small arms support meets lukewarm reaction  ".

Lets Get Real:

The Oval has a choice, if the Oval is really going to support the rebels and overthrow Assad he has to expect to lose the liberal base, you can not be a liberal at home and abroad, it  is one or the other, and since the Oval stated that the use of chemical weapons would be a red line for the US, well the Oval has boxed itself in, it has to follow through, small arms will not cut it, a couple of years ago it might have helped, NOT NOW, the place is awash with small weapons, the secular rebels need the big stuff, either trained or for the US to take down Syrian combat planes.   The Oval if it goes down this road will need the support of the Republicans, the Oval can not lead from behind as in Libya, the Civil War in Syria is far to complex for that, you have a fight with the Islamic faith, you have a proxy War between Iran and the US/West, you have Russians wanting to keep their Naval base, thus embers of the Cold War,  getting rid of Assad if the US IS ALL IN, is just the first problem, you then have to get the Western supporting rebels to take down the Al Qaeda supporting terrorists, then make nice with the Russians, let them keep their base, then try to make sure Iran does not cause more deaths, and yes deal with the Middle East Peace Process, that is enough for the last three years of the Obama Term.   Thus Syria could define the Obama 2nd term folks, well in till the Iran Crisis. 

President Obama and Syria - Syrian Update

The White House: Here is the most important part of the Statement folks, " Following a deliberative review, our intelligence community assesses that the Assad regime has used chemical weapons, including the nerve agent sarin, on a small scale against the opposition multiple times in the last year.  Our intelligence community has high confidence in that assessment given multiple, independent streams of information.  The intelligence community estimates that 100 to 150 people have died from detected chemical weapons attacks in Syria to date; however, casualty data is likely incomplete.  While the lethality of these attacks make up only a small portion of the catastrophic loss of life in Syria, which now stands at more than 90,000 deaths, the use of chemical weapons violates international norms and crosses clear red lines that have existed within the international community for decades. We believe that the Assad regime maintains control of these weapons.  We have no reliable, corroborated reporting to indicate that the opposition in Syria has acquired or used chemical weapons.  ".

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks we have reached S Day, the day the Obama Oval has tried to avoid like the plague, its allies, the UK and France have been saying for weeks that Assad has used chemical weapons, so what has changed if you have not been not following the Syrian Civil War, quite simple folks, the Syrian Rebels are within a breath of losing, with the support of Iran, Russia and  Hezbollah the Assad Regime could WIN, this would be a disaster for the US, Israel and the Region.    Thus this latest U - turn by the Oval is a fig leaf, so what next folks, well at its most basic the Oval has to impose a no fly zone over rebel cities and areas, it has to either arm the rebels with heavy weapons and get US, UK and French Special Forces to back up the rebels and fast folks.   The Russians are already saying this is a mistake, one has doubts that they would ever had placed pressure on Assad to leave, they need their only warm water port, and Iran needs Assad to threaten Israel.   Thus if the OVAL really means action, it has to be 100%, no half measures, no weasel words, the Oval can not lose, Obama can not lose, if he fails in Syria, the Tehran Regime will just go nuclear because they are not afraid of the Oval, this will force Israel to ACT, and that WAR the Oval does not want, thus best advice to Oval, win this for the Gipper and yourself, failure is not a option. 

Woe and Woe, Obama AND his Agenda - Obama 2nd Term Blues

Gallup: Reports in its daily tracking poll on the approval rating for POTUS, that President has a 45% Approval rating, while his Disapproval rating stands at 47%.

Lets Get Real:

One is hardly surprised that the Oval has taken a hit after the last few weeks folks, scandal upon scandal, and ObamaCare starts to come in to force from October,  the problem is that these scandals will take weeks, they will suck up the political oxygen and the Obama Agenda will take the hit, the Immigration Reform Bill is the one thing that could be a real legacy for the Oval, but first it has to pass the Senate and then the House, if the Oval's ratings do not improve then Democrats worried about 2014 will move away from the Oval, they want to get re-elected, what could really hurt Democrats is when the IRS starts to go after people that have not paid for medical cover, so you would have the IRS under a cloud for the targeting of Tea Party supporters and taking people to Court for not having medical cover, yes a major storm cloud could damage the Democrats in 2014 and 2016 folks.  Watch this space folks.