Post Review Debate - 2012 Election

BBC News: Reports on the narrow win for President Obama in the 2nd Presidential Debate.

Lets Get Real:

Although a CNN poll gave the edge to President Obama in the debate, on the issues in that very same poll the registered voters come out in support of the Romney's economic message.  The President was strong, on point but quite rude, a few times he made personal attacks on Governor Romney, in US female terms being MEAN, how will that go down well with women, Obama pandered on social issues, from abortion to immigration, but never said what a 2nd Obama term would look like.   Thus this blog was right in its prediction, and still holds that Obama will win a 2nd term, but the Congress will go Republican and the US will go over a financial cliff, in 2016 the Republicans will win the Oval and have control of all branches of US Government.  

Ohio - Obama's State

Thus folks lets look at the State that will decide the 2012 election, that is Ohio.   Lets have a look at the RCP Average of the State polls for Ohio. 

At present President Obama leads Governor Romney in the average of the State polls in Ohio by 48.3% to 46.1%.  Thus a 2.2% lead. 

Lets Get Real:

Thus Chicago Obama team have played this election in a wise manner, they used their early funds to define Romney in the rust belt State, they defined Romney as a out of touch rich guy, who while in business sent jobs abroad, the 1st debate victory by Romney came  to late, early voting has already started in a majority of the States.  In Ohio the early votes have gone to Obama, thus with the lead that POTUS has it can be argued that Ohio is in the Obama bag.    The Republicans will give Obama a close race, on election night do not expect a early night folks, could be like 2000 and 2004 mid morning before a confirmed Obama win.  What will be interesting will be the results in Congress, does Obama have long coat tails, who controls the House and Senate, also who are front runners for 2016.  

Moderator GONE Rogue ? - 2nd 2012 Debate

Guardian: Reports that moderator for the 2nd President Debate has come under attack from the Romney/Obama teams, the article notes the following, " ..Obama and Romney campaigns have contacted the Commission on Presidential Debates to voice concerns over the role of the moderator, Candy Crowley,.. ".

Lets Get Real:

It seems that Ms Crowley great offence is that she wants to be a reporter, ask tough questions, get the Candidates off their scripted answers.  Good for her, the Campaigns try to control every aspect of the political process, it about time that a reporter faced their wrath and acted like a reporter.  Lets hope the rest of the reports in D.C support her, it does not matter if she is accused of  biased either way, it will happen folks, this blog expects that, but if she gives tough questions to both Obama and Romney then this blog will be happy.   

Obama vs. Romney - Pre Debate Polls

Before the 2nd Debate folks lets have a look at the Polls.   It would be wise to look at these polls at the end of the week to see if the debate has changed the course of the election.  These are likely voter Polls. 

Rasmussen Reports:  In its daily tracking poll today we find that Governor Romney leads President Obama by 49% to 48%.  A 1% lead. 

Gallup: Reports that Governor Romney leads President Obama by 49% to 47%.  A 2% lead.

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks in essence we have a tied race, the Romney lead is within the margin of error, also as noted in previous post we have Obama lead of 3% in the ABC News/Washington Post Poll.   As Obama as the ground game and the money for election day it can be expected that he can get his vote out, in this he will be helped by the Unions.   The Romney bounce from the debate has gone away, it lingers in the above polls but expect Obama to be on top by the end of the week.   

Obama vs. Romney - 2nd Debate

BBC News: Reports that President Obama and Governor Romney are getting ready for their 2nd Presidential debate on Tuesday.

Lets Get Real:

Folks the Obama Team will make sure that POTUS wins the 2nd debate, this will follow a Presidential trend, in 1984 Reagan had a bad debate, so did Bush 43 in 2004, but they came back strong, thus expect a combative Obama in the 2nd debate.   This is not 1980 when Reagan finished off Carter in their only debate.       Also the format helps POTUS, its a town meeting, thus Obama should be able to connect to the voters  like Bill Clinton.   Also as the article notes the latest ABC News/Washington Post Poll has POTUS leading by 49% to 46%.   Thus the President has to be combative but not like his VP, that would not be him, it would look fake.   Thus 2nd Obama term and the Republicans and Democrats will be looking at 2016. 

No more LOVE Mr President - NYT

The New York Times: The UBER liberal Maureen Dowd writes the following on Obama 1st debate, " The fact that one diffident debate by the president could throw his whole race into crisis shows that nobody madly loves Obama anymore.  ".

Lets Get Real:

This lack of loyalty should worry the 2nd term Obama team, 2nd terms always have major downs, what is going to happen when that happens to Obama, is his support so THIN, that when the tea bags hit the fan there will be no back up for the Oval.    Also 2016 is around the corner, thus if Obama polls take a dive in a 2nd term Democrats will want some distance, they will want ever further distance should VP Biden decide to run in 2016, that would be GOD send to the Republicans.  Both Reagan and Clinton had their supporters when they faced political oblivion, one has to ask will Obama.    The fact that ubera liberals have jumped on Obama after his disaster of a 1st debate shows that that the Obama support is very thin, and that they will run away should there be a major disaster in a 2nd Obama term.    The President will come out strong in the 2nd debate, its a town hall format, thus expect the Obama Team to drill Obama to fake like he is happy to be there, goes after Romney, but not like he needs prozac, like his VP.    The Oval should remember who jumped ship after the 1st debate, keep them close so they do not throw tea at the Oval tent. 

Obama vs. Romney - Sunday Polls

Lets have a look at the Sunday Polls folks.  These are the Rasmussen and Gallup daily tracking polls of likely   voters.  

Rasmussen Reports: In its poll today we have Governor Romney leading President Obama by 49% to 47%, a 2% lead.

Gallup: Reports in its poll that Governor Romney leads President Obama by 49% to 47%, a 2% lead.

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks we have Rasmussen and Gallup having Romney on a 2% lead among likely voters.   As  stated this blog still gives the election to Obama, what will be interesting for this blog is if Obama has any coat tails, can he help the Democrats in the House and can he keep the Senate Democratic.    Also one could find the reverse of 2000, that Romney wins the popular vote but Obama wins the electoral college.   This theory being on the assumption that Obama wins Ohio and and thus election but that Romney wins the popular vote.  This blog will postulate that it will be a long election night, even the Courts might come in to play, it did in 2000, not that it did much good for Al Gore.   In the 2nd debate expect POTUS to come back like Reagan in 84 and Bush 43 in 2004, the liberal base wants some fight.    The 2nd term Obama team have to play Libyagate scandal with care, no false evidence under oath, its always the cover up that kills not the original crime.   The Oval has already thrown Hillary Clinton under the bus, expect more of that, also that Senator Kerry might get the nod to be Secretary State, what a bore that will be to the press, someone who likes his own voice more that Obama.     Lets be honest Obama can not do any worse than his 1st debate.   Thus Obama win in second debate and 2nd term.