Who will Biden chose as his VP? - US 2020 Presidential Election

BBC News: Reports " Joe Biden extends lead over rival Sanders in Democratic presidential race "

Lets Get Real:

Thus as stated in my post on Monday, Biden took Michigan and is on the way to become the Democratic Nominee, the next step for Biden, is who will be his VP.  It can be taken for granted that Biden has the African - American vote, and more so when Obama comes out to support him.  Thus a President Biden is looking for a younger VP, one that brings something to the table,  thus Beto can bring Texas into play, while Kamala Harris would bring in ethnic vote, also she is a tough former Prosecutor, that always looks good in a general election.  Thus this blog's favourite candidate for the post, Mayor Pete, he  is gay and married, that would bring in the gay vote and uber liberal voters.  It can be argued that Biden will beat Trump, it would be good to have a steady hand in the Oval Office, no more crazy actions.  A No Drama Biden would be good for the US. 

Joe Biden will be the Democratic Nominee, Michigan will be a walk over - US 2020 Election

BBC News: Reports " Democratic presidential hopeful Joe Biden has picked up another prize endorsement from a former rival, Cory Booker.  "

Lets Get Real:

The Democratic race is over, after Super Tuesday and winning a majority of the States the former VP is on course for a big win in the State of Michigan.  The failure of the Sanders campaign to get the YOUTH VOTE has undermined his campaign theme,also the Democratic Establishment is NOW fully on board.  It can be argued that Joe Biden is the biggest comeback kid of American politics, most commentators and this blog thought Biden was TOAST, but South Carolina was his firewall and the black vote came out to support the former VP to Obama.   Thus we know enter the general election, Trump vs Biden.  It is going to be a SHOW, like no other. 

US Update 1 - US 2020 Presidential Election

Guardian - Live Blog: Reports in its 9.30pm post the following, " Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg reportedly plan to endorse Biden at his Dallas rally tonight, presenting a message of unity to voters before tomorrow’s crucial Super Tuesday contests.  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus Biden won South Carolina with a 28% point victory over Senator Sanders, that has lead to Mayor Pete and Senator Klobuchar getting out of the race, as they could not see a way for them to win.  Thus the four main candidates are Former VP, Joe Biden, Mayor Bloomberg, who represent the moderates in the race, while the left is represented by Senator Sanders and Warren.  Today is Super Tuesday, 14 States vote for their nominee, it would be foolish to predict, with the departure of Klobucher and Mayor Pete the centre of the Democratic Party could move to support Biden, while the left will be split between Sanders and Warren.  On the moderate side will shall see what the four hundred million spent by Mayor Bloomberg get him, does get close to Biden, does he get any delegates, that should be known by this time tomorrow.  As for a foolish prediction, this blog would not be shocked to see Senator Sanders with hundreds of delegates, but also Biden, can Biden pass Sanders, that is an open question, will the Democrats have a contested convention, we shall find out. 

Could Senator Sanders be the Democratic Nominee - US 2020 Election

Daily Mail: Reports " Bernie Sanders is the BEST option to beat Donald Trump, Democratic voters say in shock poll - and he has sneaked ahead of Joe Biden in national black support  "

Lets Get Real:

It has been  a good few weeks for Senator Sanders, he had a BIG WIN Nevada, the Democratic Debate in South Carolina did not hurt him much, with the exception of his approval for some of Fidel Castro's domestic policies ( he did manage to say in an interview that he opposed the jailing of reformers in Cuaba ).   The South Carolina Primary is a must win for VP Biden, the polls give him a health lead, if he does win he can roll up the States on Super Tuesday.  On the other hand should Sanders gain further traction with the African - American vote then Biden could be finished.  It could all come down to Super Tuesday, 14 States are voting, it will be end of the road for some of the candidates, like Warren, Mayor Pete and Senator Klobuchar, they will not have the money to carry on.   The battle for the nomination could be down to Senator Sanders, VP Biden and Mayor Bloomberg, he as the money. 

The Latest South Carolina Poll - US Election Update - US 2020 Election

BBC News: Reports on the latest poll from South Carolina, " A poll by CBS/YouGov in the state last week found Mr Biden retains a narrow lead with 28%, with Mr Sanders at 23% and billionaire Tom Steyer at 18%. The same poll in November had put Mr Biden with 45% of the vote to Mr Sanders's 15%.  "

Lets Get Real:

In the last few days we have seen Senator Sanders win in Nevada and the Democratic Establishment getting the coffee, that Sanders is a major threat, the last poll from South Carolina shows that Biden is losing his LEAD.  The Democrats with a brain cell have worked out sometime ago that Sanders on top of the Democrat ticket would be a disaster for the rest of the ticket.  There hopes are two fold, that Biden can win SC and change the poll numbers or that Mayor Bloomberg can buy the nomination with his money, Super Tuesday is coming soon and it was reported that Biden has spent ZERO on adverts in the Super Tuesday State.  One only hopes that the Biden Campaign has gotten some bucks in and is spending like it gone out of fashion, otherwise the Campaign will be between Sanders and Bloomberg, one a multi billionaire and other with three houses.

Bloomberg in NEVADA Debate - US 2020 Election

Sky News: Reports " Michael Bloomberg to face rivals for first time at next Democratic debate...The multi-billionaire has so far run a tightly choreographed campaign, but this is likely to be challenged at the Nevada meet.  "

Lets Get Real:

This is when the Bloomberg campaign really gets into the race, according to CNN the former Mayor of New York and spend four hundred million of his 45 billion fortune on the election.  The uber liberal wing of the Democratic Party, the Sanders supporters will never move to support Mayor, they would be exchanging one billionaire for another, and one that has a record of supporting in their view racist policies while Mayor, such as search and frisk and of saying sexual comments around women.  Also the Sanders based is very tied to Sanders, they think the DNC stole the election in 2016 for HRC.  The Mayor needs to get the supporters of Buttigieg and Klobuchar to come around and support him, this would allow the moderates to nominate a moderate for the Democratic nomination.   The debate is tomorrow. 

New Nevada Poll - US Election 2020

The Hill: Reports " Sanders holds 19-point lead in Nevada "

Lets Get Real:

Sanders came a close second in Iowa, he won in New Hampshire and he is leading in Nevada, the moderate or Conservative opposition need to select a candidate and unite this lane.  Otherwise Senator Sanders could win the nomination and still not get over 30% in the different States.  This is the time for VP Biden to shine, raise some much needed money and go on the attack in Nevada, and the Super Tuesday States, otherwise it will be sad end to a political career. If Biden can not cut in SC, then Mayor Bloomberg with his vast wealth can buy the Democratic nomination.  Next Saturday in Nevada is going to be very interesting, it is a caucus State, God help US. 

Who is Tom Steyer and why is he a threat to Biden - US 2020 Election

CNN - Politics: Reports " Steyer, a former hedge-fund manager with an estimated net worth of $1.6 billion, already has spent more than $18.7 million on advertising to target South Carolina voters, swamping all of his rivals, according to Kantar Media's Campaign Media Analysis Group.  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus we shall see if money can buy you a State, Steyer has spent the money and has a large local staff.  It would be a major upset if Steyer beat Biden, it would mean that African - American firewall so stressed by Biden had failed, and it can be postulated that Biden would retire from the game.  It would help Biden if his former boss, President Obama came out and supported him.  The former President has warned the Democratic Party that if it goes far to left it will not get elected.  The moderate lane has Biden, Buttgieg and Klobuchar, it can be speculated that Senator Klobuchar will get a bounce from her come back from political death in New Hampshire.   None of the candidates seem to have caught fire like Obama did in 2008. 

Nevada is Warren's Firewall - US 2020 Election

Fox News: Reports " Struggling Warren pulls back from South Carolina, puts her chips on Nevada  "

Lets Get Real:

One can speculate that the money is running out for Senator Warren, she is putting her firewall in Nevada, it will be interesting to see where Sin City ( Las Vegas, what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas ) puts its support.  It can be postulated that the other campaigns will try to get the Warren vote, one would assume that the liberal Warren vote will go to Sanders, but the talking heads have gone into detail ( wont bore you with it ) to show that the Warren vote can not be moved in to that direction.  Thus the other campaigns will make a dash for the Warren vote.  If Senator Warren has a bad night in Vegas then her campaign might be OVER, the same could be said of VP Biden, if he can not get the white vote, will he get the ethnic vote in Vegas.  The African - American vote for Biden SC has already fallen by half in recent poll, is he sure he will get their vote.  When Barack Obama come to the rescue of his former VP. 

New Hampshire Follow Up - Part 2 - US 2020 Election

Sky News: Reports " New Hampshire primary: Sanders and Buttigieg pull ahead as Biden sinks into deep danger...The odd couple of the Democratic primaries are riding high, while Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren struggle, says Amanda Walker.  "

Lets Get Real:

The Sanders camp might need the moderates to keep going, if they split the moderate vote between them; Biden, Mayor Pete and Senator Klobuchar; will allow Sanders to gain the nomination without a limited vote, it can postulated that Warren will drop out after Nevada or SC if she is not at the top of the vote.  It was reported that Biden has 9 million in bank, he will need for the BIG STATES, like California and Texas, its cost millions.  Thus we come to Mayor Bloomberg, he has BILLIONS on hand for Super Tuesday, and can out spend the rest of the candidates in to oblivion.  The polls from Nevada and SC will be very interesting. 

Is this the end for VP Biden? - US 2020 Election

BBC News: Reports " Joe Biden - the only candidate Bernie Sanders trails in national polling - is wounded, perhaps mortally so.  "

Lets Get Real:

Biden has had two bad showings, the question is will the African - American vote stand with him in S C, in the latest poll he support has dropped by half, the voters will see that he is wounded and wonder can he get the white vote even if black Americans stand by him.  In one regard he is lucky, Mayor Pete gets around ZERO support from African American voters, Senator Klobuchar is gets minus zero.   The next stage is Nevada, it is a caucus State, one only hopes that the Nevada Democratic Party has its voting structure in place and it works, no one wants another Iowa, well the exception of POTUS.  The question is can Sanders pull off a victory, can Mayor Pete start to get the ethnic vote and is Nevada the last hope for Senator Warren.  

Sanders takes Pole position in new Poll - US Election 2020

Politico: Reports " Biden plummets in new national poll, ceding top spot to Bernie..The new Quinnipiac survey also shows Bloomberg surging 7 points to third place and eating into Biden's support among black voters.  "

Lets Get Real:

If Biden crashes and burns again after Iowa there will be serious questions about his candidacy, he was meant to be the vote getter, if he can not win in areas like Iowa and New Hampshire, what are his chances in the fly over States.  The main camp to be worried will be the Warren camp, she is a Senator in the neighbouring State, it would be expected that she would get some voters from that, as voters would get the TV from the neighbouring State.  If Sanders wins then the Democratic Establishment might look to Mayor Bloomberg to take him on, as he has billions, let's face it, he could buy most States if he wanted.  The question is can Sanders or Bloomberg get the black vote, as to be elected POTUS they need African American votes.  It seems Mayor Pete is a no go with African American voters, as the men it seems have a problem with the fact that Pete is gay, there is not a lot he can do about that, also he is married.

Trump gets the CASH IN for the General Election - US 2020 Election

BBC News: Reports " President Donald Trump's campaign and his party raised $1m (£775,000) per day online everyday for 10 days before his impeachment acquittal, the Republican chairwoman said. "

Lets Get Real:

While the Democrats are in to trenches of NH as to gain more votes.  A recent poll of  NH voters has Sanders on 29% and Mayor Pete on 22%.  The Trump Campaign is getting the money in for the November General Election.  The Democrats will vote tomorrow in New Hampshire, the FINAL Iowa result ( will it ever be finally ) has Mayor Pete winning followed by Santor Sanders, both candidates have asked for a recount in selected areas, as they think that the will gain in % stake, and Biden way back in the poll.  IF that is the result then both Sanders and Mayor Pete can claim a win, the Mayor Pete camp will argue that the election was tied in Iowa and Pete is the moderate to beat not Biden.   As for Biden, if he comes in 4th or 5th then question will be asked about his campaign, is time up for Joe, has his chance passed by in 2016?

New CNN Poll for New Hampshire - NH Part 3 - 2020 US Election

CNN Politics: Reports on its latest poll for New Hampshire,  " Senator Sanders 24%, Mayor Pete 20%, VP Biden 17%..."

Lets Get Real:

The Bidne campaign will be hoping that VP Biden comes out firing with good lines in the debate tonight, he needs a moment when he can show he is the front runner, he can not afford another average performance or a poor show.   The former VP needs to go after Mayor Pete as to young and Sanders as to LEFT WING, he needs funny lines, like Reagan's put down of Walter Mondale in 1984.  Thus the VP needs to be in the top two after Tuesday, anything else and he will have to win Nevada, another caucus State ( God help us )   

Is Biden FINISHED in 2020? - NH Part 2 - 2020 US Election

BBC News: Reports  on  VP Biden's bad showing in Iowa and the forthcoming vote in NH, " distant fourth-place finish has raised all sorts of doubts about the viability of his campaign. Biden is the candidate who has made electability the central focus of his campaign. How electable is a guy who can't beat the former mayor of a modest-sized Indiana city or two senators forced to sit on their hands during the president's impeachment trial in Washington for most of the two weeks before the caucuses?  "

Lets Get Real:

The Biden campaign lowered expectations for the early States. in this they were right, the point of a campaign is to beat expectations, in that the Biden campaign is failing badly, if Biden comes in 4th in New Hampshire there will be questions if Biden is up to taking on Trump in November.   The firewall for Biden is SC, the majority back vote is supporting him,he was Obama's loyal VP for eight years, the question is how deep is the black vote for Biden, will they see him as needing their support or will they go to someone else, NH and Nevada could make or break Biden.

Sanders just Leads Mayor Pete in New Hampshire Poll - NH - 2020 Election

Boston Globe: Reports on a new poll that shows that Mayor Pete is surging in New Hampshire, just behind Senator Sanders, " Sanders held steady at 24 percent, while Buttigieg nipped at his heels with 23 percent. Biden slipped to 11 percent, below Warren’s 13 percent."

Lets Get Real:

The Iowa results are in, it was a tie between Mayor Pete and Senator Sanders, with the Mayor just ahead by half a %.  The question for NH voters is simple, do they think that Biden is DONE, the moderate lane has been taken over by the Mayor and if the can carry on the success of Iowa he would have taken the first two States of the Democratic race, while if Sanders wins he will have won Iowa with the Mayor and NH.   VP Biden has to refresh his act, he can not afford another 4th place finish, will his firewall in SC last, if the African American voters see that Biden is a no hopper against Trump in November.   There is a debate tonight, let's recall Reagan's famous line at a debate in NH " I paid for this microphone Mr Green ", that made him the nominee, it can be argued even President.  Will the VP match that level, one does not have much hope in that area. 

Biden goes after Mayor Pete and Senator Sanders - NH Trail - 2020 Presidential Election

Guardian - Live Blog: Reports in its 6.18pm post  that former VP, Joe Biden has gone on the attack after his 4th place in Iowa, " At a campaign event in Somersworth, New Hampshire, Joe Biden went after both Buttigieg and Sanders. He said it would be “a risk” to nominate Buttigieg, considering his most recent job was as mayor of South Bend, Indiana, an argument the former vice president echoed over Twitter....On Sanders, Biden warned the Vermont senator was too far left for the party and said down-ballot Democratic candidates would “have to carry the label he chose for himself,” referring to Sanders’ self-description as a Democratic socialist.  "

Lets Get Real:

The former VP will have to really FIGHT for the nomination, if Mayor Pete is seen as a better moderate to beat POTUS then Biden might be finished.  The main point of the Biden campaign is that the can beat Trump like a drum, if the voters think Mayor Pete or Senators Sanders can do the same then the point of Biden goes away.   It might be time for the former President, Barack Obama to help his former VP, to have Trump as his successor was bad enough, to have Biden beaten like a drum by other candidates would be to much for the Obama legacy, he might need to get his campaign shoes on and start helping Biden.  The very thought that Sanders could be the nominee scares the hell out of the Democratic Establishment. 

The ugly 2020 Election fight starts - State of the Union - Election 2020

Sky News: Reports " Pelosi rips speech after Trump handshake snub "

Lets Get Real:

The 2020 US Presidential election will be dirty, one can expect POTUS to get in to trenches, he wants a 2nd term otherwise he will look like a big loser.  The Democrats HATE Trump with an unhinged quality, thus they will go for the personal attacks, they can hardly go on about the economy, it is a good and in a recent Gallup poll TRUMP had a 49% approval rating, the best of his first term.   If the economy keeps getting better then the Democratic  nominee will have a hard time, the voters will not want to the pre Trump economy, no matter how much liberals hate Trump.  The Democratic nominee will also face the charges the he or she has taken the Democratic to the LEFT.  If the nominee is Senator Sanders then Trump will walk to victory, there is no way in hell the US will elected a socialist to the Presidency. 

The Iowa Fiasco - The Results at the moment - US Election 2020

BBC News: Reports " There are clear winners, as Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg can both claim some kind of victory, depending on how the final tabulations come in...There's also a clear loser - Joe Biden.  "

Lets Get Real:

This blog started to watch the Iowa results from 8pm on Tuesday, it is NOW Wednesday and only 71% of the results have come through, at the top at present is Mayor Pete with Sanders breathing down his neck, while former VP Biden is fourth, and lucky at that, the question is can Biden recover, or will he lose New Hampshire also, if that happens the money givers to Biden will start to question if he is up to the job.  The Biden Campaign was smart to lower expectations for the early States, the campaign states it has a firewall in S. C, that the African American vote will save Biden and make ready for Super Tuesday.  The African - American voters do watch the news, will they think Biden is a LOSER against Trump in November and move to either Mayor Pete who has dealt with the negativity because he is gay or will they go for the arch liberal socialist Sanders.   New Hampshire could either make Biden the new comeback kid or he could be the sinking Titanic. 

Kerry NOT RUNNING in 2020 - Iowa Part 4 - US Election 2020

CNN - Politics: Reports " Former Secretary of State John Kerry on Sunday denied a report that he was considering a bid for the 2020 presidential election, saying it is "categorically false."  "

Lets Get Real:

The thought that Kerry would run shows how nervous the Democratic Establishment is about a Sanders nomination.  Let's speculate that HRC decides to run again, she won the popular vote in 2016 and has been stuck with nothing to do since 2016, as in elected office, she and Bill must be going mad, politics and Clintons go together like tea and milk.  It can be argued that HRC has the right to run again, she actually BEAT Trump in votes, and thus it would be only fair to give her chance to beat him in 2020.   The chances of that happening are ZERO, the Democratic candidates would not take kindly to a Clinton run again, it is seen that she blew her chances in 2008 and 2016, there are no third acts in American politics.