Pelosi and Taiwan - Future China Crisis - Biden Era

BBC News: Reports " The Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, is beginning a tour of Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan, her office says - with no mention of a possible visit to Taiwan.  "

Lets Get Real:

One doubts that the Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi will visit Taiwan, the Chinese have made it clear that they will take drastic action should the Speaker visit a Country that China sees as a breakaway province of China.  Also the US has enough problems to deal with when it comes to its security, the on going War with the Ukraine and the chance that IRAN will go nuclear, it seems it is a point of no return when it comes to the Tehran Regime, they have or will have enough nuclear material for a bomb, that is something that Israel will never allow, thus this blog would not be shocked to HEAR that Israel and its Gulf Allies have either taken action by them self's or in support of the US, who might have to take action to make sure that Israel does not take action and thus allow for a regional WAR.  Also the Biden Administration is waiting for North Korea to have another nuclear test, thus  placing pressure on the US to do something.  POTUS has a lot on his plate, and time is running out to solve any of them. 

Sunak's U - Turn over Tax - Conservative Leadership Contest - After Brexit/Boris

BBC News: Reports " Tory leadership: Rishi Sunak supporters deny U-turn in row over VAT cut  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus the Sunak Campaign is in TROUBLE, although his campaign Sunak has refused to agree to tax cuts, only when inflation is down, well one must assume that the Sunak Campaign has read the POLLS, the public ones and the internal ones and worked out, that Sunak is political toast if he does not move on the issue.   One does recall Lady Thatcher's famous remark at a Conservative Party Conference, when she was under pressure due to her policies, she said this Lady is not for turning, Sunak has shown that he is WEAK, what will he do when faced with strikes on the railways, NHS and other public sectors, will he agree to wages to match inflation, thus making inflation worse.  The Truss Campaign should ram this MAJOR U -TURN down the throat of the Sunak Campaign, it should be noted that the former Chancellor will face Andrew Neil on Friday, one can expect a very tough interview, it seems that Truss was right to refuse the interview request, why go in to a political minefield if you do not have too. 

Conservative Leadership Debate - Talk TV - After Brexit/Boris

Guido Fawkes: Reports in its 6.34pm post the following, " Guido understands from multiple sources that Kate McCann fainted. A TalkTV spokesperson says “There’s been a medical issue, it’s not a security issue and the candidates are okay – if we can get back on air we will.” .....UPDATE: A TalkTV spokesperson has confirmed that Kate is okay, although the debate has been cancelled: “Kate McCann fainted on air tonight and although she is fine, the medical advice was that we shouldn’t continue with the debate. We apologise to our viewers and listeners.”  "

Lets Get Real:

This review of the actual debate will be very short, we were half way through the debate when the moderator as reported above fainted, the Sunak and Truss must have gotten word to tone down the personal attacks, Rishi Sunak on the whole was on better behaved and not so rude to Liz Truss.  The former Chancellor did go on a bit, the Moderator had to tell him to allow the Foreign Secretary to come in to the discussion.  The Foreign Secretary was calm, but the picture showed that she didn't agree with the former Chancellor.  Sunak it seems was not happy that he was not allowed to attack, he looked like a political eunuch.   As a former ELITE Banker, it looked like that he knew he was toast, there was not so much over speaking over the Liz and the Moderator.   Thus a verdict has to be short, a draw, even if Sunak knows the Crown will not be his this time.  One sends one's best wishes to the Moderator.  This debate will go down in UK and even US political history, due to the above events.  The only debate that comes to mind is the 1976 Presidential debate when President Ford was debating then Governor Carter, the sound went off while the candidates debated. 

Truss leads Sunak on POLICY - After Brexit / Boris

Guardian - Live Blog: Reports in its 12.04pm post the following, " Polling from YouGov suggests that Liz Truss was perceived by Tory members to have outperformed Sunak on every issue covered in last night’s debate.....In particular, she led on Ukraine, cost of living and levelling up, although her lead was weaker on Brexit, the environment and taxation.  "

Lets Get Real:

This blog is going to make a BOLD suggestion to the Sunak Camp, that the former Chancellor have a look at getting out of the race before the Conservative membership start to vote, he did not do well in last night's debate, as the above poll suggests Truss LEAD in ALL AREAS.  If the former Chancellor gets out of the race early he might get a job in the Truss Cabinet, as PM Truss could make him Foreign Secretary her old job, thus there would be no need for a great Cabinet reshuffle.  Of course such a move might not go down well the Conservative members, on the other hand, it would be seen as bringing the PARTY together and not helping the Labour Party.  In the debate last night Sunak did well with Labour voters, not the best indicator for a general election.  Also Sunak is defending a sticky wicket, he wants to wait in till next year for tax cuts, while Truss will have them from the start.  Truss is taking the bull by the horns, while Sunak is following the Treasury line, as they used to say in Yes Minister, he has been house trained by the Department, in other words defending the orthodox of the Treasury, they never like to spend money, as they think the money is theirs and not the public who pay the taxes. 

What the POLLS say about the Conservative Debate last night - After Brexit/Boris

Sky News - Live Blog: Reports in its 12.06pm post the following, " 

Snap poll shows 50% of Tory members felt Truss performed best last night....

A snap poll of 507 Conservative Party members who watched the TV debate last night shows 50% felt Liz Truss performed the best...In contrast, the poll by YouGov shows just 39% of party members felt Rishi Sunak delivered a better performance.  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus you pick your POLL, on the whole it was up to Sunak to hit Truss hard, and to show that she is weak or does not know what she is talking about, that didn't work, and Sunak had to defend the biggest tax hike since 1949, that is not a easy wicket with Conservative voters.  Truss was cool and calm, what you want from a PM.  The Foreign Secretary was clear that the UK would not send the Royal Navy to protect grain from being taken from the Ukraine to Africa, any NATO action would allow Putin's Russia to use that as PR, and also the Royal Navy would come under threat from Russia.  That is a fast way to start WW3.  It should be noted that Sunak did seem to calm down as the debate went on, but that was to late for this blogger, he had give this blog a small headache, one does hope as stated that someone takes him to the side and tells him to calm down and not to speak over the Foreign Secretary if he wants a job in her Cabinet. 

The Reaction to the Conservative Leadership Debate - After Brexit/ Boris

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 11.38am post the following, " Tory voters thought Truss performed best in debate, poll finds...It found that while Conservative voters thought Liz Truss performed better in the debate, Sunak was more popular with Labour voters ... "

Lets Get Real:

This blog watched the debate and thought someone should have told Rishi Sunak that it was DEBATE, not a shouting match, every time Liz Truss was about to speak, Sunak put about his views, also can he drop the statement that his mother owned a chemist and he did the books, one or two mentions was enough, it is his standard speech to give to Conservative members, they will have heard it by now, its gets a bore.  Sunak came across as a elite banker, in the mould of Gordon Gekko, but without the charisma.  Sunak was shouting all the time, it gave this blog a headache, what did it give other viewers.  Truss was a competent debater, when she could get in to speak, Sunak spoke over her and the BBC presenter.  The next debate someone on the Sunak team should tell him to shut up, it gives a better presentation to Conservative voters, who do not like him for stabbing PM Boris in the back.  It was ironic at the end the candidates were asked to grade the PM, he got 7/10 from Truss, while Sunak gave him 10/10 for Brexit and Covid - 19.  PM Boris is the past for the present, this contest is still in favour of Liz Truss, and if Sunak wants a job in her CABINET, he should show some respect. 

Why Truss said NO to Channel 4 Interview - Conservative Party Leadership Contest

Guardian - Live Blog: Reports in its 1.37pm post the following, " Sunak is regarded as a better media performer than Truss, and this may help to explain why he has agreed to sit down with Neil......Candidates who are well ahead in an election (as the polling suggests Truss is) are often reluctant to debate because they have little to gain and much to lose.  "

Lets Get Real:

The Sunak Campaign might be to slick for its own good, the UK is not the US, when Labour Party did it, we had New Labour, Tony Blair and the Iraq War and it didn't end well, while Blair was applauded out of the House of Commons we had Gordon Brown as PM, that was a disaster from start to finish.  Thus UK voters and Conservative Members might be wary of being a Presidential Candidate for PM.  The very fact that Truss is not great on TV shows that she is REAL, no polish, the real thing.  Let's recall Lady T changed her image over the years, she become a natural on TV.  Thus one can expect should Liz Truss becomes PM she will will improve her tv performance.   The focus today will be the debate on BBC 1 at 9 between Sunak and Truss, it will be interesting to see their different presentation style, Sunak slick, while Truss is is less so.   Let's be honest neither of them is PM Boris, but then that is the reason Boris fell, you can be natural on TV and funny and still be bought down by your faults.    Sunak has to get the Conservative members to have another look at him, he needs to say something nice about Boris, even if does not mean it, he has to look sorry for his part in the Boris downfall.  While Truss has to defend her tax cuts pledge and be ready for Sunak to go for her throat, that is the only way he can win. 

Sunak to take on Andrew Neil - Conservative Leadership Contest

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 1.46pm post the following, " Sunak takes jab at Truss for declining Andrew Neil interview....Rishi Sunak has taken a swipe at his leadership rival Liz Truss for declining to take part in a live interview on Channel 4 this Friday with political journalist Andrew Neil.  "

Lets Get Real: 

The Foreign Secretary is WISE not to go on Andrew Neil show, he is a great reporter and reads the fine print, he is not going to give Sunak a easy interview, he will look at his record as Chancellor, also the biggest tax hike since 1949.  The Sunak Campaign has nothing to lose, it needs to make up with the Conservative grass roots, they do not trust him for putting the political knife in to PM Boris, also taxes at a 70 year high do not help.  The Sunak Campaign has been very slick, very American, also it has moved right, thus this is Channel 4 expect a rough interview.  This blog can not understand why the Conservative Party said YES to a interview of the Conservative Candidates when they were going through the MPs process of the contest.  Channel 4 is peeved that it is being SOLD, thus expect that to come up, also why Sunak in Cabinet opposed the Northern Ireland Protocol in Cabinet but has changed his mind since.  It will be interesting to see who wins the BBC DEBATE tonight, and the different categories, the general public, conservative MPs and finally Conservative members. 

Liz Truss the TRUE BREXIT SUPPORTER - After Brexit / Boris

Daily Mail: Reports " Liz Truss vows to throw off EU chains by the end of next year in a bid to unleash Britain’s post-Brexit potential, if she becomes the next Prime Minister  "

Lets Get Real:

This is the type of news that Brexit supporters want to HEAR, that the OLD CHAINS of the EU will be thrown off, it should be noted that Rishi Sunak has stated the same thing, but it seems his PR is not up to the Truss Campaign, at the end of the day it always comes back to BREXIT, Truss is a convert, and like most converts to most things, they push the limits, Truss can be trusted to deliver on Brexit.   In his speech this morning Sunak stated the he had supported leave and voted for leave in 2016, thus to confirm that he is a BREXIT SUPPORTER, the very fact the he had to state that shows that he does start as the underdog in the Conservative Party Leadership contest.  Liz Truss might have been remainer but she has seen the light, or seen were the Conservative members are on the subject. The Sunak has a couple of weeks to show that he is a true Brexit supporter and will be tough with the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol. 

Sunak on the Northern Ireland Protocol - After Brexit / Boris

Sky News - Live Blog: Reports in its 2.36pm post ( July 22 ) the following by the Sunak Campaign , " "As a believer in Brexit from the beginning, Rishi has been clear that he would continue with the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill until and unless the EU says it is willing to come to the table to renegotiate the contents of the Protocol......"Based on what we have seen today, the commission is committed to taking petty and unwelcome steps that infringe on our sovereign rights, rather than addressing the real issues around the Protocol."  "

Lets Get Real:

It is a pity that the former Chancellor had not said this earlier in his campaign, the lack of talking about the subject has allowed Foreign Secretary Truss to take the LEAD when it comes to the EU and Brexit, the petty actions by the French over Dover have showed that the French and the EU cannot be trusted.  Also Rishi Sunak has stated that the Northern Protocol Bill is a asset he will place on the table to get a better deal with the EU.  The DUP will not be happy, they see the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill as making them part of the UK again, thus Sunak would face problems if he becomes the PM, the EU will think he is WEAK and will buckle under pressure from Brussels.  This this blog is going from indifference to the outcome of the leadership campaign to supporting Liz Truss.  The Northern Ireland Protocol is that important. Go LIZ.

Liz Truss has a 20% lead over Sunak with Party Members - After Brexit / Boris

Sky News - Live Blog: Reports in its 4.23pm post the following, " 

Liz Truss 'has 20 point lead over Sunak' - YouGov...

Patrick English, from YouGov, has told Sky News that Liz Truss has a 20-point lead over Rishi Sunak among Conservative members, according to their most recent polling.  "

Lets Get Real:

The Conservative membership was more loyal to PM Boris than his MPs, they tend to be older, white, and to the right of their MPs.  Conservative Members want to see low taxes, a smaller state, and finishing Brexit.  Truss voted REMAIN in 2016 but she has become a CONVERT, and is now at the present pushing the Northern Ireland Protocol through the House of Commons.  While Rishi Sunak supported Brexit in 2016 but was very cool to the Protocol Bill when discussed in the Cabinet.  Liz Truss wants TAX CUTS NOW, that always goes down well with Party members and the general public.  Of course we have a long Summer to go, it would be risky to make a prediction, but his blog will take the risk, it will be Truss by a few % points, one can expect the Chancellor to take the fight to the Foreign Secretary, and there will be meetings for the party members to meet and grill the candidates, politicians make mistakes, let's see who can follow the script.   On the whole the blog is indifferent  about the result, Sunak has promised to rip up EU laws when he comes in to office, but first he has to get elected, Rishi just might be to rich even for Conservative members.  Thus on the whole on the Liz side, we have all made mistakes, Liz was a Liberal Democrat and Remainer, but she has reformed.  Thus political sins have to be forgiven. 

The Final Round of the Conservative Leadership Contest - After Brexit/Boris

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 4.01pm post the following, " Mordaunt knocked out of contest...Penny Mordaunt has been knocked out of the Conservative leadership contest, meaning Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss will face each other in the run-off decided by party members. "

Lets Get Real:

This blog and others got the result right, its down to Former Chancellor Sunak versus the Foreign Secretary Liz Truss.  On the whole this blog support Liz, she did not resign and betray PM Boris, while Sunak started the ball rolling that lead to the downfall of Boris.   The Foreign Secretary taking the Northern Ireland Protocol through the House of Commons, one will be interested to hear if Sunak becomes PM will he use the Bill if it is needed to place pressure on the EU.  It is reported that in Cabinet that the Chancellor was opposed to using the bill as a way to place pressure on the EU.  The recent POLLS of Conservative membership  have shown that the membership support LIZ over Rishi, Liz wants TAX CUTS KNOW, while Sunak wants to get inflation down then go for tax cuts.  The UK economy needs a push to stay away from going in to recession, BIG TAX CUTS should help.  The Summer is a long time, we shall see if Liz can keep her 20% over Sunak, a weeks is a long time in politics. 

The 4th Round of the Conservative Leadership Contest - After Brexit / Boris

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 3.03pm post the following, " Rishi Sunak - 118, Penny Mordaunt - 92, Liz Truss - 86 and finally Kemi Badenoch - 59 who is OUT,  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus Kemi Badenoch is OUT, the BIG QUESTION is were will her votes go, as Kemi is seen as of being right in the Party, one can postulate that her voters will go for Liz.  Thus it would fit my prediction that the final two would be Sunak or Truss.  Of course there is the problem we are dealing with the most devious back stabbing electorate in HISTORY, Conservative MPs.  There will be a lot of talks going on over the night, the suggestion of job offers or other trinkets that a new Conservative leader can give out. If I was a betting man I would put £5 on it being Sunak and Truss, of course this blog could be WRONG, we shall know at 4pm tomorrow. 

The 3rd Round of the Conservative Leadership Contest - After Brexit / Boris

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 8.05pm post the following, " Rishi Sunak - 115, Penny Mordaunt - 82, Liz Truss - 71, Kemi Badenoch - 58, Tom Tugendhat - 31  "

Lets Get Real:

As expected Tom went out today, he might be a future heavy weight in the Party even PM, he has to try and not to mention his WAR RECORD every time, this blog honours he service in Iraq and Afghanistan but Tom should try to stop himself bringing up the subject every time over every issue, it become a bit of bore.  Tomorrow this blog predicts that Kemi will be out, one can assume that Tom's votes will go to Penny, as Penny is seen as more of ONE NATION Conservative and is very woke!.  The question for the final round will be is simple, will it be Penny or Liz that face Sunak in the membership vote, it should be noted that Sunak does less well with this membership.  It was wise for the Conservatives to cancel tomorrows debate, the candidates were given ammo to the Labour Party.  This blog is still keeping to its prediction that the final race will be between Rishi and Liz, that of course depends if the Kemi voters go for Liz, one can never be sure with the Conservative MPs. 

Iran could have a NUCLEAR BOMB if it wanted - Tehran - Biden Era

The Jerusalem Post: Reports " Khamenei adviser says Tehran 'capable of building nuclear bomb'......Tehran will also directly respond against Israel should its security be targeted, the report says citing the advisor.  "

Lets Get Real:

This could be IT folks, of course this blog does not trust Tehran for one minute, if they say they can make the bomb if they wish, that means they have the bomb and this is just to let the WORLD KNOW, that they can strike Israel should Israel decide that it cannot wait for Joe Biden to pull his finger out and do something.  One does hope that the CIA, NSA, GCHQ, MI6 have their ears open and agents on the ground to help if the West decides they have to strike, if TEHRAN does not return to the diplomatic table and be totally honest with the UN and the West they leave the West with very few non military options, they have more sanctions on them that Russia at the minute, and still they build towards the bomb.  One does hope that the Biden Oval is up to this crisis, and if the story is true, this is major crisis like the Russian invasion of the Ukraine. 

PM on Brexit - After Brexit / Boris

The Sun: Reports " PENNY'S PROMISE 

I’ll get Brexit re-done and put more pounds in people’s pockets if made Prime Minister, vows Penny Mordaunt "

Lets Get Real:

The article says ALL the right things when it comes to Brexit, but the sister paper of the Sun, the Sunday Times that has a complete view from sources, that PM will not follow through with the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill and will try to appease the EU.  There is no appeasing the EU, they will just play it out, in till they think that Labour will win the next election.  Either PM is being economic with the truth when it comes to Brexit or the sources in the Sunday Times are feeding the Sunday Times what it wants to HEAR.  On does hope that the debate tonight the issue is bought up, one is tired of the Trans issues, and taxes, there are other things to discuss.  The above article would convince one that PM is a conviction Brexit supporter, but with politicians its what they do not say that counts, or this blog could be paranoid about the political class. 

PM on 2nd Scottish Vote and Northern Ireland Protocol - The UK Union under PM

Guido Fawkes/Sunday Times ( Hard Copy ): Reports that Penny Mordaunt is opposed to another 2nd Independence vote and that Mordaunt would appease the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol by keeping the border in the Irish Sea.  

Lets Get Real:

The Union would come under threat if PM got the job of PM, on the one hand she opposes a 2nd Independence vote for Scotland, but is willing to throw Northern Ireland under the bus, and prevent the establishment of a regional Government for the province.  The DUP has made it CLEAR, they will not go back in to Government with the Nationalists if the Northern Ireland Protocol is not removed or changed in a major way.  The DUP can argue that PM will stand up to the SNP but will not defend the rights of British subjects in Northern Ireland.  Under the LAW if there is no Government in the province after 6 months then there are fresh elections, this would create massive Constitutional problem, the Nationalists could increase their majority and make the DUP and other Unionist Parties feel weak, that could cause more problems in the province even violence, something no one wants to see.  Thus PM has to have a more clear policy, No to the SNP and YES to scrapping parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol in the Northern Ireland, otherwise her administration will start in a confused manner and lead to major problems down the road. 

2nd Round of the Conservative Leadership Contest - After Brexit/Boris

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 3.02pm post the following, " Rishi Sunak - 101 votes,Penny Mordaunt - 83 votes,Liz Truss - 64 votes,Kemi Badenoch - 49 votes,Tom Tugendhat - 32 votes,  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus far the Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss is under preforming, thus the blog could be WRONG, it might be Sunak AND Mordaunt, this reason this blog does not think that it would happen this way is the FACT that the right of the party has split its vote. The present Attorney General is out, and one can presume ( always very dangerous when discussing Conservative Leadership contest, ) that the supporters of Suella Braverman will go for Liz Truss, what Kemi is still doing in the race is a mystery, let's be honest Kemi might be famous in her own house but in till last week no one knew who the hell she was.  The Monday round will be interesting, it can be postulated that either Kemi or Tom are on the way out, one would assume Tom, thus his votes might go to Sunak or to PM.  When Kemi is finally out, one would guess her supporters would go to Truss.   Thus the original prediction of this blog might stand, its gets difficult when you cannot tell the wood from the trees, there is a debate tomorrow on the TV, that might change things again, it is going to be a long summer, if it is Sunak and PM ( good initials for a future PM ) are the final two, it has been suggested by various polls of Conservative members will go for PM.  PM is a ONE NATION CONSERVATIVE AND a  Conviction  BREXIT SUPPORTER, this might go down well with the Party, Sunak is seen as having stabbed PM Boris in the back.  A lot can happen over the Summer. 

Results of the First Round Election for the Conservative Leadership - After Brexit/Boris

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 5.02pm post the following, " Rishi Sunak - 88 votes,Penny Mordaunt - 67 votes,Liz Truss - 50 votes,Kemi Badenoch - 40 votes,Tom Tugendhat - 37 votes,Suella Braverman - 32 votes,  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus far this blog is still predicting the FINAL TWO, will be Sunak and the Truss, of course Penny Mordaunt has come 2nd in the vote today, it depends who the right go for in the end, it has been reported that Penny Mordaunt would crush Sunak in the membership vote, thus over the night one can expect that the three main runners, Sunak, Mordaunt and Truss will be on the phone or meeting in person, trying to increase their votes.  This blog has to admit it had never heard of Kemi Badenoch or Suella Braverman before the leadership contest began, it would be interesting to see them do some debates with the other candidates, another VOTE tomorrow, politics is a ruthless business. 

The 8 Candidates in the First Round of the Conservative Leadership Contest - After Brexit/Boris

Guido Fawkes: Reports on the 8 Candidates through to the First Round, " Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman,Jeremy Hunt,Penny Mordaunt,Rishi Sunak,Liz Truss,Tom Tugendhat,Nadhim Zahawi, "

Lets Get Real:

Thus a bit of shock, eight have gotten through, thus we have a real fight on the right of the Party, one would assume that the final 2 could be known by next Monday, as stated in this blog, it postulates that it will be down to Rishi Sunak and Lizz Truss, the members of the Conservative Party are to the right of the MPs, thus as Truss is seen as more of the Brexit supporter she might get the nod from the members.  Overnight there will be a lot of deal being done, to get the support of the candidates who fall out and do not reach the 30 need to get to the next round.  When it comes to Conservative leadership contest, MPs are as devious as your worst cynic, more fun to follow.

Conservative Government REJECTS Labour motion for No Confidence - After Brexit/ Boris

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 4.38pm post the following, " Government won't allow confidence vote - Labour....Boris Johnson's government is refusing to allow time to debate a vote of no confidence in the prime minister, Labour says.  "

Lets Get Real:

This is the Labour Party playing games, any no confidence vote is in the Government, they want some attention, they know that the Conservative Party leadership will have the press attention for the next few weeks.  They wanted BORIS out on Thursday, that didn't happen, the Queen appoints the PM, the Queen must have a Prime Minister, this is the norm, the Labour Party have some cheek, their hatred of Boris has coloured their actions, the Labour Party know that if the NO Confidence is in the Government that Conservative MPs will vote for it, they do not want a election.  A very cheap trick by Labour. 

Those in the First Round Tomorrow for the Conservative Leadership - After Brexit / Boris

Guardian - Live Blog: Reports in its 4.30pm post the following, " At least five Tories now expected on ballot, as Hunt joins Sunak, Truss, Mordaunt and Tugendhat in reaching 20 threshold  "

Lets Get Real:

The process is going the way this blog predicted, it will be Sunk and Truss in the final around.  Those on the right of the Party will have to place their support in Truss, the Foreign Secretary was a REAMINER in 2016, but has been converted to a firm BREXIT supporter, while Sunak has been accused for not supporting the opportunities of Brexit in Cabinet.  The NEXT PM has to be a firm Brexit supporter otherwise the membership will not support a iffy PM.  One hopes the Conservative MPs get that FACT, that they need the membership to knock on doors during elections, they need the NEXT PM to be the same page as the members up to a point. 

The Other Crisis, Iran - Biden Era

Sky News - Live Blog: Reports in its 08.38am post the following, " 

Iran preparing to supply Russia with weapon-capable drones, White House says.....

US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said it was unclear whether Iran had already provided any of the unmanned systems to Russia, but said the US has "information" that indicated Iran was preparing to train Russian forces to use them as soon as this month.  "

Lets Get Real:

This is what happens when rogue nations get to together, the Tehran Government is not sincere when it has talks with the US and the West about its nuclear development, the Tehran Regime is backing up Russia that is in a WAR with the West.  One does hope that the MOSSAD, the Israeli Intelligence network is keeping an eye on the nuclear sites of Iran, it can be postulated that by NOW, the Regime has enough nuclear material for a NUCLEAR BOMB.  POTUS is on this way to the Middle East, it is expected that Saudi Arabia and Israel will pressing for the Biden Oval to do SOMETHING, if the Democrats lose the US Congress in November, the only area that a President has most of the power is FOREIGN POLICY.  Let's look at the Donkey in the room, Biden is coming under pressure not to run in 2024, does he cave like LBJ in 1968 or does he do a Carter and run and lose.   Interesting developments in foreign policy. 

The RULES for the Conservative Leadership Contest - After Brexit/Boris

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 7.43pm post the following, " Candidates standing in the Tory leadership race will need at least 20 supporters to get on the leadership vote ballot...nominations will open and close on Tuesday....MPs will conduct the first round of voting on Wednesday.  "

Lets Get Real:

This will cut down the number of candidates, some might find it a struggle to get to 20.  One can presume that the former Chancellor Sunak and the Foreign Secretary Truss will get through, but the rest, well depends who the MPs want to tie to their futures too.   As noted in my previous post the political knifes have come out already, it is reported that some campaign's have give the Labour Party dossiers in attempt to smear fellow campaigns.  Tuesday is going to be interesting, who gets through and what do the candidates who can not hit 20 nominations give their support to on Wednesday.  This blog is going to predict it will be the Foreign Secretary who finally gets the nod, of course this blog could be very WRONG, it happens. Keep your eyes on the news channels, they will get the results faster that print media. 

1922 Committee Rules for the Conservative Leadership - After Brexit/Boris

Sky News - Live Blog: Reports in its 5.24pm post the following, " "The new 1922 Committee executive has some important decisions to make, first of all obviously the timetable for the leadership election......"What we expect is nominations opening tomorrow, probably first ballot Wednesday and perhaps another round on Thursday...."What the '22 executive is likely to do is [change] the number of nominations you need – at the moment it's just eight.  "

Lets Get Real:

As of NOW there are 11 candidates, it could go up one if the Home Secretary jumps in to the race.  The political knives are already out, ALLEGATIONS are being thrown about the various candidates, affairs, sexual deviance, personal finance and if people have paid their taxes in the UK.  The 1922 Committee needs a quick and fast contest, the number of nominations that a candidate needs should go up from 8 or even 36 it has been reported.  That will get rid of those candidates you have NEVER heard off, and those that even Conservative MPs do not know that well.  Then the race should be over by next week after various rounds, with the last candidate being out, in till we get to the final two and the vote by the Conservative members.  The favourite in the former Chancellor, but how will his tax increase go down with the members, then final candidate should be a FIRM BREXIT supporter, the Foreign Secretary is the most well known, but voted REMAIN in 2016, that could be a problem.  The fun has started. 

The Knifes come out in the Conservative Leadership Contest - After Boris

Guardian: Reports " One senior No 10 official was quoted in the Financial Times as calling Sunak “a treacherous bastard”, while a Johnson supporter in the cabinet told the paper: “Rishi will get everything he deserves for leading the charge in bringing down the prime minister.”  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus there is no loves lost between the PM Boris and his present Chancellor and his former Chancellor, so expect the PM to try to make sure that the successor he wants gets the job.  Yes PM Boris is till there, to think that he will keep quite over the next few weeks  IS MAD, he will want to get those that bought him down.  Also the Government cannot just STOP everything that is going on, the Northern Ireland Protocol is going through the House of Commons, the economy needs a push in the right direction, thus there is a need for TAX CUTS.   The War in the Ukraine is still going on, one can expect that Putin will try something as he sees the US and the UK at weak at present, with Biden polls down the toilet and PM Boris on the way out.  In many respects democratic politics is a brutal business, you develop a career and by errors on your part or external event you find yourself in BIG TROUBLE and your career goes down the toilet.  Whatever you think of Boris, you will know who people are talking about, with others you might require more information. 

Liz Truss the Foreign Secretary to enter Conservative Contest - After Boris

Sky News - Live Blog: Reports in its 6.26pm post the following, " Truss to offer 'classic Conservative principles' in leadership bid....She will pledge to reverse the government's national insurance rise, cut corporation tax and introduce measures to ease the cost-of-living crisis, the newspaper added.  "

Let's Get Real:

The Foreign Secretary VOTED REMAIN in the 2016 Brexit vote, but she has become a convert, as Foreign Secretary she has taken the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill through the House of Commons, and is reported that she wants to be tough with the EU.  It will be interesting to see who gets the Boris vote, it wont be the present Chancellor or the ex Chancellor as they helped the  process that lead to Boris having to go, let's be honest, the worse enemy of Boris has been is himself.  One can expect that ALL the networks will offer to have the Candidate debates on their channel.  The Conservative Party should be careful, BBC News and Sky News are remoaners and anti Conservative.  That goes for Channel 4 News and the Times.  Thus the Conservative Party should make sure the moderators are FAIR, and not part of the elite liberal press.  It is going to be an interesting two weeks!

Runner AND Riders for the Conservative Leadership Contest - So Far - After PM Boris

BBC News: Reports " Mr Shapps joins former Chancellor Rishi Sunak, Attorney General Suella Braverman, former equalities minister Kemi Badenoch and chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee Tom Tugendhat in launching campaigns to take over from Prime Minister Boris Johnson.  "

Lets Get Real:

There are quick developments while this blog was writing its post another candidate is standing, Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi has thrown his hat in to the ring.  The Chancellor already has a negative, he accepted the job and then wrote a letter that stabbed Boris in the front.  Expect more candidates!    Thus far this blog has no favourite as to who should be the successor to PM Boris, the former Chancellor Rishi Sunak started the ball rolling that ended the time of Boris in office, thus a negative to start with, then while Chancellor he has risen taxes to there highest since 1949.   On the plus point, he voted Brexit in 2016, but it has been reported that he has some reservations on the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill going through the House of Commons at the moment.  It will be interesting to see see do some tough TV interviews, and asked about his tax plan, at the moment he is against tax cuts, and his view of Brexit.  Also his campaign team was ready very fast, slick video etc, so when did he plan to resign. The other declared candidates are new to even to this blog, so let's see their tax policies and their views on Brexit.  There is expected a few more candidates, the Foreign Secretary, two former Health Secretaries, thus we have some time to go before the 1922 Committee meets on Monday to decide the rules of the CONTEST.  The contest should be quick, the entry requirement should be at least 20 MP supporters, and then the rounds should start on the Wednesday, as to get the the number of candidates down to two, and then the membership can vote. 

Caretaker PM Boris says no new Policies while Conservatives have Leadership Contest - After Brexit

Guardian - Live Blog: Reports in its 5.19pm post the following, " No new policies until next PM announced, says Johnson...Boris Johnson told his cabinet the government would now focus on the agenda on which it was elected, and not seek to implement new policies or make major changes of direction.  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus we wait the elections for the 1922 Committee and their revised rules for the Conservative Leadership contest, the process needs a faster end, the Country cannot wait for three months for the Conservative MPs and members to decide who to support.  The Candidates should need over 10 MPs to support their candidacy and that the rounds should take place over two weeks.  Those that are running better start fast, the Foreign Secretary was out of the Country and has had to rush home as she is expected to stand.   The the final two candidates campaign should not take 6 weeks, general elections do not take that long ( thank God ), the contest should last about 3/4 weeks and then the members vote.  Of course it would be simpler if the candidate will less support on the backbenches was to step aside, and thus allow one MP to become PM.  Of course the members would feel cheated, and also you want to see how the candidates behave during tough press interviews and their view on the Northern Ireland Protocol and Brexit.   Thus fun democracy starts on Monday with the  1922 Committee elections and the format for the contest. 

Caretaker PM ? Theresa May ? - After Brexit

Sky News - Live Blog: Reports in its 1.23 post the following, " Former PM says new leader must 'heal division'....Former prime minister Theresa May was asked if she would be prepared to act as a caretaker prime minister after Boris Johnson confirmed he will step down.  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus far its only Sky that is going with this story, are they really allowing their hatred and REMAIN wing to dictate their reality, the PM cannot be forced out office in till there is a NEW LEADER, he remains the Queen's PM.   If the Conservative Party want a new leader will have to change the rules, that means the 1922 Committee will have elections for its officers on Monday, and then the structure of a new leadership contest, this is going to take time, and the Queen needs a PM on call. What if the Russians seeing this crisis in LONDON, pulls a stunt with a bombing of a NATO Country, thus we need a PM.  If PM Boris will not go, and he can fill his Cabinet and junior ranks then he stays, so far he has replaced those that have left. The UK has had three Education Secretaries in two days.  As for Sky News and BBC News a friend of this blog stated that they are nest of vipers, the Conservative MPs should not be on the TV, they should find a candidate that all MPs can decide on, like Churchill after Chamberlain or Major after Thatcher.   In 2007 Gordon Brown forced Tony Blair OUT after 10 years, he ran with no opposition as Labour leader.  The left/liberal elite will try to fan this story, the powers that be within the Conservative Party need to get their MPs back in line and not on the TV, BBC News, Sky News, Channel 4 News etc.  This blog is waiting to see who runs and who are the Brexit supporters in the pack. 

PM Boris OUT as Conservative Leader but not PM - After Brexit

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 1.01pm post the following, " WATCH: Boris Johnson's resignation speech in full... "

Lets Get Real:

Thus PM Boris Johnson is OUT as Conservative Leader, Boris made it clear who he blames, the heard mentality of Conservative MPs, also he is staying on as PM while the Party chooses another leader and PM.  The Conservative MPs have got what they wanted, let's hope they do not live to regret this, the ousting of Lady Thatcher left a hard taste of bitterness, as the Lady herself said, betrayal with a smile on its face.  The Conservative MPs cannot force the PM out, there always has to a be a PM, the PM is getting new people in to take seats in the Cabinet and the junior ranks, its better to be in office and running, than out of office, let's recall the PM Boris might have fallen by the wayside, but there still important issues, the cost of living crisis, the need for tax cuts, the aftermath of Covid - 19 and the on going WAR in the Ukraine.  There needs to be a VERY QUICK election, thus the 1922 Committee has elections for its posts on Monday, it also had to create a structure for the leadership contest. There will be numerous runner and riders, we need a stable hand, a Brexit PM or a reformed remainer.  The election should not take months, the election rounds should take the next two weeks, and then the membership should vote on the last two Candidates standing. 

The UK Cabinet starts to RESIGN on MASS ? - After Brexit

Guardian - Live Blog: Reports in its 8.26pm post the following, " Brandon Lewis has resigned as Northern Ireland secretary, according to Sky News and other media sources. But this has not yet been confirmed.  "

Lets Get Real:

THIS has never happened before, a PM refusing to go when he has lost the support of his CABINET, also let's recall that the PM has lost 38 junior Ministers and Parliamentary Private Secretaries, those roles will need to be filled, while also having a ACTIVE GOVERNMENT.   The PM should think about this over the night, does he really want to lose a confidence vote, it would be the WORSE way to go out, if he resigns he can follow the THATCHER route and say he was betrayed by his CABINET and if anything goes wrong then he would have taken a difference decision.   There must be someone he listens too, Lady Thatcher listened to her husband who advised her to go in November 1990, after falling a few votes short in a election contest, Blair went in 2007 when junior ministers resigned,  Blair called them in his memoirs of being in the cult of Gordon Brown.  It is reported on the BBC that the Foreign and Defence Secretaries are staying, also the Home Secretary, and she also told Boris to go.  A few fun hours ahead folks. 

PM Boris WONT leave the STAGE - After Brexit

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 8.03pm post the following, " PM 'absolutely defiant' - report....ITV's deputy political editor Anushka Asthana tweets that she's been told the PM is "absolutely defiant and is not going to resign".  "

Lets Get Real:

It has been a tough day for the PM, there was PMQs were he faced arrows from, his own side, and the Liaison Committee who treated our PM with total disrespect, and that was from his own side.   The PM sees that he has a mandate from the people in 2019 and wants to carry on.  The PM is now talking to Cabinet Ministers, a group has been sent with the brandy and revolver to force the PM out, if they resign that will be a further problem as 38 Ministers and PPS have resigned from his government since yesterday.   The PM is on his way out, this post might be old before its even posted, it depends how he wants to go out, does he want to force the 1922 Committee to change it rules to allow for another vote of no confidence, he think's that he can change the maths before the vote, it is a possibility, any other PM would have gone by NOW.  The next few hours or days will be very interesting.