The Path to Victory for Labour - Election 2015

BBC News-Election Live: Reports in its 5.43pm post the following, " Labour is ahead in 44 out of its top 50 Tory target seats. That follows a 3.5% swing away from the Tories since 2010, according to a new poll from ITV/ComRes  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus voter we see the path to a Labour victory with a minority government, while Labour is gaining in the Seats it needs to win, it faces total defeat in Scotland, but this does not matter, whatever Labour politicians say they will grape the key to No 10 and do a back room deal with SNP to place difficult issues down the road, also Labour must be aware that the SNP will bolt before the 2016 Scottish election.  Thus expect late night deals, close votes and the money markets feeling unwell.   Thus voter you will get what you want, anarchy, any other vote than Conservative places Ed Miliband in Downing Street under the thump of the SNP. 

Latest from Iran - Iran Crisis

The Weekly Standard: Reports " The Iranian organ Farsnews claims that Iran has seized a U.S. ship. Thirty-four are on board, the outlet claims.. "

Lets Get Real:

If the orders for this hijack came from Tehran it is due to the fact that the US Congress will have say on the Iran/US nuclear deal, the Tehran Regime wants sanctions removed at once if the deal is signed.   This is a warning and example the problems that Tehran could cause in the final year and half of the Obama Administration.   It can be argued that the US Congress with pressure from the Israeli lobby will not be supportive of any deal between the Oval Office and Iran, the Tehran Regime see President Obama as weak and easy to bully, it seems they do not teach HISTORY at Harvard, the old University of POTUS. 

US Ship Hijacked by Iran - Iran Crisis

Yahoo News!: Reports that forces from Iran have taken over the Maersk Tigris.

Lets Get Real:

Another victory for Iran, this move makes the Obama Oval look weak, one only has to hope that the US was not around for this high seas hijack, if the US was close and did not take action it shows how much of an appeaser the Obama Oval is, this is a on going story, the US Congress will be even less inclined to support the nuclear deal between Iran and the US.    As stated in previous post either this move came about due to orders from on high because the US Congress will have a say in the deal or there are forces in Tehran that want to sink the deal.  Developing story. 

Is Iran playing Games with the US - Iran Crisis

BBC News: Reports " Pentagon officials say the US is monitoring the seizure by Iran of a Marshall Islands-flagged cargo ship. "

Lets Get Real:

This is either a warning shot by Tehran to the Obama Oval of the problems Iran can cause in the region after the US Congress stated it would have a say on the US/Iran deal, or there are factions in Iran that do not want the nuclear deal with the US.   The US has to be firm within reason, it has to get the ship back, otherwise other ships will come under threat from Iran, the Obama Oval should follow the strategy of the Reagan Administration, the defence of US ships in international waters and right of free navigation in the region.   The Obama Oval should not be afraid to sink ships from Iran that cause a threat to US shipping or free use of international waters. 

Conservatives ahead of Labour by 1% - Election 2015

TNS Poll: Reports the following, "  LAB 33% (-1), CON 34% (+2), LIB DEM 7% (-1), UKIP 15% (0), GREEN 5% (0), OTHER 5% (-1)  "

Lets Get Real:

This is the 2nd poll to show  the Conservatives with a very narrow lead of 1% over Labour, the YouGov poll has the following, " Conservatives 34%, Labour 33%,  ", neither political party it seems can make that breakout and keep a lead for days.   The reason is simple, the Conservatives and Labour are running a safe campaign, neither want to drop the ball before election day, one has to assume that they have their own private polls, and focus groups, thus this is the kind of campaign that the UK voter wants, they want boring parties and strategy.   It could be that the political parties are waiting closer to May 7th before going for it, some bold strategy that will win them the election outright. 

The Clinton Emails and Libya - Election 2016

CNN - Politics: Reports on the released emails from the Hillary Clinton and her time as US Secretary of State, and the scandal of the Libyan deaths, the article notes the following, " But the sources who described the emails said they offer no "smoking gun" on Clinton's actions in the days and weeks leading up to the attack or while the siege on the U.S. facility was ongoing. "

Lets Get Real:

IN other words the Democrats on the Libyan Committee have released their spin of the emails.   The election cycle has started thus CNN is going it can be postulated with Democratic sources.   In will be interesting to see what the Republicans make of the emails, of course the Republicans can argue that since Hillary Clinton controls the computer server we have to trust that she released ALL the emails.  In that light the Republicans should go after HRC when she is before the committee, they need to cover the events in Libya and the computer server still held by the Clintons at their home.   This scandal will not go away, it does not matter how much the elite press and the Democrats spin the subject. 

Conservatives LEAD by 3% over Labour - Election 2015

Guardian: Reports " Conservatives take three-point lead over Labour in Guardian/ICM poll..Tory support edges up to 35% with Labour standing still on 32%, "

Lets Get Real:

Thus another poll that shows the Conservatives with a lead, as this blog is a Conservative blog it wants to see a Conservative victory, but all the objective information leads to one result, a Labour minority with SNP support.  Of course the UK voter could be economic with the truth when it comes to the pollsters.   This is not new, that was the result of the 1992 election, the polls had a Labour victory but it turned out to be a Conservative victory on the night.   The Conservatives given the polls should go with the economy and the threat from the SNP.   The message is simple to the English voters, do you want Scotland taking your tax money because the Government needs SNP suppprt for votes, do you think that Ed Milliband is tough enough to stand up to Alex Salmond and others SNP leaders.    Are the Scots asking for more than they should get, in tax funds.   Time for simple and tough message. 

Conservatives LEAD by 6% over Labour - Election 2015

Ashcroft National Poll: Reports " Con 36%, Lab 30%, Lib Dem 9%, UKIP 11%, Green 7% "

Lets Get Real:

If this was the result on May 8th the Conservatives might even be able to form a minority government, but this blog has its doubts, a political poll is only a snapshot of time.  The Labour Campaign has shown passion and Ed Miliband is not a walking disaster.    If the Conservatives win in May its against the trend and expert though on the process.   This blog is still keeping to its projection of a Labour Minority Government supported by the SNP and other small Parties.   The Conservative Party made a mistake in thinking that they could only talk about the economy and stress the threat from the SNP.   The Labour Party has made a better argument that the economic recovery has not be fair through the UK.   Also it has gone for popular polices such as rent control on private rented houses and flats etc.   This will go down well in Southern England. 

The Sunday Polls - Election 2015

UK Polling Report: Reports " YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%, Opinium/Observer – CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%, Survation/Mail on Sunday – CON 33%, LAB 30%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 18%, GRN 4%  " 

Lets Get Real:

Some good news for the Conservatives, they are ahead in two polls, but the lead is not enough, and by now the Conservatives should be leading by a mile, they are not, thus as has been stated by weeks by this blog and others we will see a minority Labour Government held up by the SNP.    The question is what price that Labour will pay to get No 10.   The Liberal Democrats have made it clear they will not support a coalition that is supported by the SNP.   Thus for us political geeks we will have a minority Labour Government needing vote by vote support by the SNP, the Country might go to hell but the politics will be fun. 

The Russian Bear hacks the White House - Modern Warfare

BBC News: Reports " Russian hackers who gained access to the White House computer system last year were able to read President Obama's unclassified emails, the New York Times has reported. "

Lets Get Real:

This is the price you pay for modern technology, nothing is hack proof, if you have the money and the brains most systems have flaws.   The article does not say if the hack was private or by the Russian intelligence system.  One would guess that it would be the Russian intelligence agencies, trying to work out what the Obama Oval was thinking about when it came to East Ukraine.   That is the problem with information technology, systems go out of date quite fast, what was the best one year becomes antique by the next.   The West has to be on its guard, hacks can come from Russia, China, Iran or even North Korea, thus money has to be spent on systems, it safeguards systems and also creates employment.   

Obama and the New War on Terror

The White House: Statement by the White House Press Secretary, " It is with tremendous sorrow that we recently concluded that a U.S. Government counterterrorism operation in January killed two innocent hostages held by al-Qa’ida.  Our hearts go out to the families of Dr. Warren Weinstein, an American held by al-Qa’ida since 2011, and Giovanni Lo Porto, an Italian national who had been an al-Qa’ida hostage since 2012.  Analysis of all available information has led the Intelligence Community to judge with high confidence that the operation accidentally killed both hostages.  The operation targeted an al-Qa’ida-associated compound, where we had no reason to believe either hostage was present, located in the border region of Afghanistan and Pakistan.  No words can fully express our regret over this terrible tragedy.

We also believe two other Americans were recently killed in U.S. Government counterterrorism operations in the same region.  We have concluded that Ahmed Farouq, an American who was an al-Qa’ida leader, was killed in the same operation that resulted in the deaths of Dr. Weinstein and Mr. Lo Porto.  We have also concluded that Adam Gadahn, an American who became a prominent member of al-Qa’ida, was killed in January, likely in a separate U.S. Government counterterrorism operation.  While both Farouq and Gadahn were al-Qa’ida members, neither was specifically targeted, and we did not have information indicating their presence at the sites of these operations. 

The President directed that the information being shared today, which was properly classified until now, be declassified and shared with the American people.  He takes full responsibility for these operations and believes it is important to provide the American people with as much information as possible about our counterterrorism operations, particularly when they take the lives of fellow citizens.  The uniquely tragic nature of the operation that resulted in the deaths of two innocent hostages is something we will do our utmost to ensure is not repeated.  To this end, although the operation was lawful and conducted consistent with our counterterrorism policies, we are conducting a thorough independent review to understand fully what happened and how we can prevent this type of tragic incident in the future. 

Many within our government spent years attempting to locate and free Dr. Weinstein and Mr. Lo Porto.  The pain of their deaths will remain with us as we rededicate ourselves to adhering to the most exacting standards in doing all we can to protect the American people. "

Lets Get Real:

When innocent people are killed in the new war on terror its a tragic event, our thoughts are with the families and friends of those killed.    The US over the Bush and Obama years have killed hundreds of terrorists with the use of drones, it has helped in the destruction of the old Al Qaeda leadership, on the negative side we have seen the growth of franchise Al Qaeda operations around the world and the growth of IS in the Middle East and Africa.   The US has to carry on with drones, it has saved lives, there will be tragic events as mentioned  above,  but overall its for the security of the West. 

Labour AHEAD by 3% - Election 2015

Guardian: Reports in its 3.43pm the following post, " New (21/04-23/04) @panelbase #GE2015 poll results: LAB 34% (NC), CON 31% (-2%), UKIP 17% (+1), LD 7% (-1), GRN 4% (NC)..."

Lets Get Real:

This latest poll is in line with the YouGov poll that gives Labour 34% and the Conservatives 33%. Thus the prediction for this blog stands as follows, a Minority Labour Government getting around 34% to 36%, with 275 Seats, while needing the support for votes from the SNP. The support of the SNP might come to an end before the 2016 elections in Scotland, it depends if the Labour Party stands up to the SNP when it comes to cuts. One has doubts of that with Ed Miliband as the Labour leader. The Conservative Party after losing the election will have a leaders contest, to early to say who will win that, while the Liberal Democrats might need a new leader if Nick Clegg loses his Seat in Sheffield, lets see who is still standing as MPs before we can project a winner for that leadership. Nothing so far, even the SNP row has moved this blog from its original view, this election without doubt has been the most boring election in years.

Hillary Clinton and the Clinton Charity - Election 2016

Guardian: Reports " Hillary Clinton family charities to refile tax returns after review reveals errors..Clinton Foundation under scrutiny for donations from foreign governments "

Lets Get Real:

The Clintons through their Charity work have done a LOT of good around the World, the negative part is that Hillary Clinton is ALL politics, you do not need a degree to work out why foreign government are giving money to the charity, then want something, either when HRC was Secretary of State or if she becomes the first female President.   It is never good if your running for office to place a political target on your back, and you can be sure the Republicans will hit the Hillary Clinton hard over these allegations.   In recent polls the US voter has been asked if Hillary Clinton can be trusted, the answer was in the negative, the deaths in Libya, the private server and now this attack on the links between the Clintons and foreign governments.   If Senator Warren does not run given the Clinton negatives she has no future in Presidential politics, you must know when to run, the RMS Clinton could go down like the Titanic, the Republicans and the left wing ALL have an interest in taking down the Clintons. 

Can the Clintons be bought ? Election 2016

The New York Times: Reports on the links between the Clintons and the money given by the Russians, "Canadian records show, a flow of cash made its way to the Clinton Foundation. Uranium One’s chairman used his family foundation to make four donations totaling $2.35 million. Those contributions were not publicly disclosed by the Clintons, despite an agreement Mrs. Clinton had struck with the Obama White House to publicly identify all donors. Other people with ties to the company made donations as well. " 

Lets Get Real:

Thus scandal comes again with the Clintons, the NYT has no love for the Clintons and wants a real left wing candidate to enter the 2016 race, the  uber liberal left want Senator Warren to run, she is the real deal with it comes to the class fight.   The Clintons have to come out fighting, they could lose the election well before 2016, other candidates might see the Clintons are the Titanic, holes below the water line, there is a chance that more bad information will come out, thus far the Hillary Clinton has not talked to the press, the press on the other hand seem to think of  Hillary as a celebrity not someone running for high office.   One can see even Vice - President Biden get in to the race, the Democratic voters in the primary fight want there to be other choices, if its only Hillary Clintons you are left with a damaged candidate, who is not supported by the extreme left of the party and is mistrusted by the press elite.    Its becoming a 60/40 that Hillary will be the nominee of the Democratic Party, that gut feeling is only in 2015, what will the Republicans do to Hillary through negative adverts through out 2015/16, also lets not forget the Libyan deaths and the private server held by the Clintons, there is only so much damage a candidate can take, Hillary Clinton is NO Bill Clinton. 

The Economic Plans of the Political Parties - 2015 Election

BBC News: Reports " Four of the major parties have not provided "anything like full details" on plans to cut the deficit, the Institute for Fiscal Studies has said. "

Lets Get Real:

No political party wants to scare the voters, thus you have the usual debate between the Conservative Party and the Labour Party, less spending or more spending,  the Conservatives stress the economy has come around under their watch, low inflation, low unemployment, cuts in welfare, while the Labour Party stress that the rich have gotten richer while those on the breadline have lost out with the coalition government.   In reality the voter has a choice do you trust a Political Party that has bought the economy back to pre 2008 levels or do you allow the Political Party that spent ALL the money a second chance. If your wise you will conservative, safe pair of hands, do you trust the two Eds of the Labour Party, if you do you are a fool and should not be reading this blog.  This blog is for those with a brain cell. 

President Obama, Iran and the Oval Lies - Iran Crisis

Bloomberg View: Reports " The Barack Obama administration has estimated for years that Iran was at most three months away from enriching enough nuclear fuel for an atomic bomb. But the administration only declassified this estimate at the beginning of the month,..."

Lets Get Real:

Thus the Oval Office down played the threat from Iran, while it knew that Tehran was only a few months away from the bomb.  This is typical of low level Chicago politics, and there is no cost to the Oval Office.   The US Congress should set up a select committee of Congress to investigate the relationship between Iran and the US, and what the Oval Office has agreed to in the talks in Europe.   It is clear that the Oval has been economic with the truth when it comes to Iran, it stated that Iran would take the year to to get the bomb, now they say a few months as they try to make the US Congress swallow the deal set up by President Obama.   It has been shown that when it comes to Iran that President Obama is a modern appeaser, the result will be a disaster, but by then Obama will be out of Office, the next President will have to deal with Iran. 

The THREAT of the SNP to the UK, Part 2 - Election 2015

Guardian: Reports on the Conservatives attack on the match up of the Labour and the SNP, " They have managed to combine their warnings of economic chaos after 8 May – the threat of excessive borrowing, leftwing influence and instability – with the threat posed by Scottish nationalism.  "

Lets Get Real:

As a ploy the placing the political target on Labour and SNP has worked, a good attack, never mind the merits, works if there is a sense of truth to the charge, thus the double talk out of Ed Miliband every time the issue of SNP and Scotland comes up, the Labour leadership understands that it only gets back in to power with the support of the SNP.   This would be an ironic development as Labour's Shadow Foreign Secretary and the leader of the Scottish Labour Party could lose their seats to the SNP.   How could Ed Miliband appoint Douglas Alexander to the FCO if he has lost his seat, of course if PM, Miliband could place Alexander in the House of Lords, thus he would get his Shadow Foreign Secretary back but it would not look good to the Scottish voters.   The last couple days has ALL been about the vote by vote deal between Labour and the SNP, the Labour Party should take the risk and state it will not govern as a Minority Government under the SNP supoppport.  Also if Labour is the second Party it would mean that it won less English and Welsh seats than the Conservative Party, it would be seen as a losers Government.   This again would not be good, as Sir John Major said this morning, the Labour Party would be at the beck and call of the SNP.   This would be a political disaster for the UK and the Labour Party in the long term, English voters would not be happy that they are being ruled from Scotland. 

What is the US up to in the waters of Yemen - Yemen Crisis

BBC News:  Reports on the US presence in the waters of Yemen, the article notes the following, " The US has warned Iran against arming the rebels - but a US spokesman said the ships would not stop the convoy. "

Lets Get Real:

Is this the Oval Office doing its usual, of creating new policy then cutting the feet off the Secretary, in this case the Defence Secretary, as it has been noted before in this blog the Oval Office allowed Secretary Kerry to set the stage for war with Syria and then backed down, thus the growth of IS in Syria and Iraq and the present US attacks on IS in Iraq.   If the US sends out an aircraft carrier it sends a strong message that the opposition needs to back off, but now the Oval has made the mission pointless, the Tehran Regime will take this move as a greenlight to supply the houthis of Yemen with more weapons, thus creating more problems for Saudi Arabia, a Western ally in the region.  Whenever the Obama Administration says something about the Middle East  it causes even more problems, some people never learn. 

Conservatives 4% ahead of Labour - Election 2015

Ashcroft National Polls: Reports " Con 34%, Lab 30%, Lib Dem 10%, UKIP 13%, Green 4% "

Lets Get Real:

A second poll that has the Conservatives ahead, but the article notes the following, " The changes are within the margin of error, suggesting that the parties’ national vote shares remain very close. ".  It can be argued that Ed Miliband should be able to get the Labour vote to around 33% to 35%, even if the Conservatives had a lead of about 1% to 2% the Labour Party should have more Seats in the House of Commons.   This blog when being subjective supports the Conservative Party, but in its objective mode it follows the polls, which way people are betting, and its guts instinct.   Of course it would be a nice surprise if on May8th the Conservative Party wins outright, but that does not look to be in the cards, the cards show a Labour victory with the support of the SNP.   They say we get the Government or anarchy we deserve.   

The THREAT to the UK from the SNP - Election 2015

Daily Mail: Reports " 'A match made in hell': Fury as Sturgeon reveals her £140billion price tag for doing a deal with Labour where the SNP calls the shots across Britain..

• Includes an end to austerity, £140billion in spending and scrapping Trident "

Lets Get Real:

Thus the price for Ed Miliband getting his hands on No 10 is taking the UK down the road of Greece, that is the only way that the SNP will support him, but the cost to UK would be a disaster, it could lead to the end of Labour in the England.   There is always a price, so will Ed stab the English in the back as he stabbed his brother's political career.   It is a simple QUESTION, do you TRUST Miliband, will he look after your interests or himself and Labour.   Voters IF you vote for the Labour Party you get the SNP also, its the price you will pay,  the UK will go down the road of France and Greece, we will become the laughing stock of Europe.   Labour will have its strings pulled by a party that wants to end the UK.   Thus think carefully before you vote on May 7th.  The future of the UK is in your hands, VOTE Conservative. 

Follow the Money - Election 2015

Guardian - Politics Live: Reports in its 3.15pm the following post, " Paddy Power say they have now got Ed Miliband as favourite to be prime minister for the first time since October 2014. He is priced at 5/6.. "

Lets Get Real:

They say follow the money, in this case what the great British public are betting on in the election of 2015.   Thus the neck by neck nature of the polls and this above supports my election projection, in that projection this blog has a Labour Government either with a majority or just a few seats bellow the magic 326 required.    Of course a betting on something is a risk, you can lose your shirt.   Lets recall there are over 600+ Seats, in each contest is different.   Thus you have to use what is out there such as p0lls and follow the money of the voter,  and your gut, this gut feels that the SNP threat will work to get the English and the Welsh out to vote, they will not like the idea that they are been run from Scotland. 

Conservatives 2% ahead of Labour - Election 2015

BBC News - Politics Live: Reports on the following tweet by Lord Ashcroft, " ICM poll CON 34% LAB 32% LDEM 10% UKIP 11% GRNS 5%" "

Lets Get Real:

As noted in essence we have a tied race, of course polls have known be wrong, they were a disaster in 1992, they had a Labour victory.   This blog has noticed what when asked who they will vote for VOTERS say Conservative in a quite voice, as if they are having a tax audit.  The question that has to be asked, COULD ALL the polls be wrong, this old gut of mine feels there are movements towards either Labour or the Conservative Party getting a majority.   The English will not like the idea that the SNP would control the polices for the English and Welsh but does not include Scotalnd.    The SNP just might have created a reason for the English to vote for a majority Party, if nothing else to stop the SNP.   At least it adds a bit fiz to the election. 

What is it with the UK polls -Election 2015

BBC News: Reports on the neck by neck race of 2015, the article notes the following, " What are we to make of it all? Well, it is certainly a challenge for those who have to provide news and insights during the long election campaign. How many different and interesting ways are there to describe a walrus moving barely one inch? "

Lets Get Real:

If your like me your a political geek, you love elections and polls, but even this political blogger is finding the 2015 General Election quite tedious, the only fun moment was when the UKIP leader had a go at those invited to watch the debate in the opposition debate.   The political parties of yesterday used to have press conferences, now its keeping the public away from the candidates, it has gone very US on us, well with both sides using American wizards at elections that is no surprise, in the US they have attack adverts, they are fun to watch, and do not hold back.   Thus what can we say at the end of the week, well my prediction for a Labour Government is still on course, the polls would have to be wrong as make 1992 poll mess look normal.   Thank goodness there are only two weeks to go, then this blog can start to look the US Presidential race in 2016. 

Conservatives 4% Ahead of Labour - Election 2015

Guardian: Reports " Tories unchanged on 36%, Labour fall two points to 32% and Ukip up two points on 13% in poll conducted after Thursday’s ‘challengers’ TV debate "

Lets Get Real:

This must have caused a heart attack at the left wing Guardian.  They go to great lengths to rubbish this poll, one is almost shocked that they published the article, but then nothing that the left does should come as a surprise.    OF course this is just a snap shot, a  YouGov poll has Labour ahead by 36% to 33% for the Conservatives.     Which one is right will be seen over the next few days, there should be more polls, my Labour prediction is still holding up voter, 

The Parties TIED in the General Election

Telegraph: Reports " Labour and the Conservatives are neck-and-neck on 34 per cent in today's latest YouGov poll. "

Lets Get Real:

Thus even if this was the result of May 7th the Labour Party would be the biggest Party, and the would need the support of the SNP to govern, there is NO WAY the Labour Party can form a government without the support of the SNP.   This as this blog has stated, once Labour is safe around 33% to 35% they are the next govenment.   The SNP leader has made it clear that she will vote for the Labour Gov even if there is no deal, thus Ed Miliband can count on SNP support even if in public he says he does not want them, so Ed Miliband is the next PM, this blog hates one thing, being wrong about a prediction, thus far it is not. 

IS Update - New War on Terror

Guardian: Reports " Iraqi PM warns Isis could become unstoppable as key city threatened...City of Ramadi ‘on verge of falling’ says adviser to Iraqi government  "

Lets Get Real:

It is time for the US and the UK to send in their special forces, at the end of the day the battle will be won on the ground, the Iraqi Army needed the help of Iran and US airplane attacks to get rid of IS from Tikrit, these two Countries in the case of IS are on the same page, but even then there are lines, Iran will not have US giving air support to its forces as they do not want to share victory with the US, while the US while wanting the Tehran Regime to take on IS does not want it to grow more of its power in Iraq, Syria and Yemen.   The backdrop to the fight in Iraq is the nuclear deal between the US and Iran, either its a good deal or President Obama has not read the fine print, the US Congress will read the fine print and see the secret parts of the deal.   The War with IS will take more than three years, thus the next US President will have to deal with Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, Yemen,  other areas that have not blow up yet, there is enough time for more Crisis points before President Obama leaves Office in 2017. 

The ONLY way for Ed to become PM is through the SNP - Election 2015

Daily Mail: Reports " Nicola calls Ed's bluff: After Labour leader says 'no' to a coalition with the SNP, Sturgeon warns voters will 'never forgive him' if he walks away from chance to kick out the Tories  "

Lets Get Real:

This is the stark choice facing the UK voter, if your vote Labour or SNP you get two for the price of one, you have a weak PM leading a weak Labour government supported and ruled by the SNP.   THINK voter if Ed Miliband would stab his own brother in the back, what chance for you voter, can your trust Ed not to take the SNP deal as to get the keys of No 10. Thus  voter you have only once choice VOTE CONSERVATIVE, or face a return to the weak governments of the 1970s. 

The UK Debate of the Opposition and the viewers - Election 2015

BBC News: Reports in its 10.45am post the following, " The BBC Election Debate 2015 had 4.3 million viewers, a 20.5% share, from 8pm last night, the Guardian reports. "

Lets Get Real:

The viewing figures for the Opposition debate will hardly be a threat to the top 10 shows on a normal week.  It seems the idea of watching the Opposition at play was not a turn on for the viewer, Ed Miliband was orange is face colour but at least he had sharp black suit, and came out well, he didn't fall over and was not eating.  In second we place we have the SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon, its a pity she represent the SNP, she would have gone far in the other Parties, also she is not up for election in the UK this year.   The UKIP leader, Nigel Farage had a go at the audience, and he was right, they were even more left wing that usual for the BBC, lets recall the BBC had to say sorry after 9/11 when the audience for Question Time attacked the US and not the terrorists.    On the whole good idea for the PM to stay away, why feed the left wing beast.  Also someone who asked a question was not sure if she would even vote, she can drag herself to the TV studio but not to vote, says it all about the bbc selection. 

President Obama/ Iran and the US Congress - Iran Crisis

The New York Times: Reports on the battle between the Oval Office and the US Congress over Iran, the article notes that President Obama in " his latest battle with Congress not only left him on defense, it actually broke the gridlock. Against him. "

Lets Get Real:

The power of the Oval Office wiltes are you get closer to an election, also President Obama is not running, as they said in the last season of the West Wing, the President is searching for a legacy, something that he can point as a historical success, thus Obama has taken Cuba off the terrorist watch list and has given Tehran everything it wants if your give believe Tehran.  The Regime in Iran has a very different picture to the US/Iran deal that does the Obama Oval, they have stated that sanctions will be lifted once the deal is singed, and that the UN can not check military sites for any banned nuclear material.   Either Obama is telling the truth with the paper he gave out or he has allowed himself to believe something that was not agreed by Tehran.   The Dems running in 2016 are not going to place their political futures in the hands of Tehran, they want a firm document that is signed by both sides that allow the UN to take over most of the nuclear sites in Iran and keep it under watch, otherwise this whole process has been a major waste of time. 

Labour 2% ahead of Conservatives - Election 2015

BBC News: Reports on an Evening Standard poll in its 3.38pm post. " A monthly opinion poll from Ipsos Mori...has given Labour a two point lead over the Conservative party...These are the numbers: Labour 35% (+2%), Conservatives, 33% (unchanged), UKIP 10% (-3%), Green 8% (+2%),Lib Dems 7% (-1%) "

Lets Get Real:

One can expect Labour to have a bigger bounce after tonight, as long as Ed Miliband does not fall over in the Opposition debate  he will be seen by the Country as the next PM, all the other Parties with be throwing their arrows at him, they want the Labour vote, as long as Labour keeps its seats  the North and Southern England it can be the majority Party after May 7th, 2015. 

Obama/Iran and the US Congress - Iran Crisis

The New York Times: Reports " Obama Says He’d Sign Bill, as Now Written, to Let Congress Vote on Iran Nuclear Deal "

Lets Get Real:

It is nice that President Obama will allow the US Congress to vote on the Iran deal, yes that is meant to be funny, if Obama played poker he could use this with the Tehran Regime, tell them to get a good deal with him or the US Congress will impose tougher sanctions on Iran.   Of course one would postulate that the Israeli Lobby has been out in force to remind both House and Senate members that they need money for the 2016 Election, thus expected to support the US Congress having its say on the Tehran deal.   It will be interesting to see how the House and Senate Democrats play Iran, do they want to trust their political careers to Iran, Obama will be out of Office in 2017, he has nothing to lose, he is seeking a legacy, it started with Cuba and now Iran.    The problems is that the deals that Obama has cut are weak and rubbish.  Think Neville Chamberlain on steroids.   In these deals the winners are Cuba and Iran.  

The SNP will control LABOUR - Vote Labour GET SNP-Election 2015

Daily Mail: Reports " Sturgeon vows to 'build alliances' with left-wing Labour MPs to stop Miliband imposing ANY spending cuts...The SNP leader also pledged to form alliances with minor parties "

Lets Get Real:

Thus voter if you vote Labour you get the Scottish SNP leading Labour by the nose, they will demand special polices for Scotland, that will cost the English, Welsh and the Irish.  How is it fair if Labour is rejected in Scotland, that Scottish SNP MPs can place the Labour Party in power in the London.   Thus if you want a fair government that looks to support the whole of the UK YOU must vote Conservative.   A Labour Party kept in power by the SNP could lead to the break up of the Union.  Thus do the right thing of May 7th, vote Conservative. 

Ed Balls and the SNP - Election 2015

Telegraph: Reports " Ed Balls: Any Labour deal with the SNP would be a 'betrayal' of English voters...The shadow chancellor says that Labour “will not do” any pact with Nicola Sturgeon’s party that would see Scotland benefit ahead of England. "

Lets Get Real:

Whatever Ed Balls says the Labour Party will need SNP support to get into government, if Ed Miliband does not do a deal then David Cameron will remain as PM.   It will not be a formal deal, that would be to much for the Labour Party in Scotland and England, the deal will be vote by vote, the UK will  have crisis government for five years.    Lets recall Ed Miliband stabbed his own brother in the back, what is stop him doing that to English voters. 

The question VOTERS is, do you trust Ed Miliband when it comes to the SNP.   

Hillary Clinton and the US Left - Election 2016

Guardian: Reports " Hillary Clinton: an empire of progressives strikes back..Leftwingers hold back their endorsements for Hillary Clinton until she presents a clearer campaign ‘vision’ as the only Democrat in the running so far "

Lets Get Real:

The best way of Hillary Clinton to deal with the left is for her to tell them to drop dead if they think they will have any part of the Clinton Agenda.  HRC is the only candidate running with a real chance of winning.   If HRC allowed her campaign to be hijacked by the US left she will lose big time in 2016.   The left are under the impression that the UK and USA has gone left since the crash of 2008.  That is a mistake, the economy of the US is getting back into shape, a slow fight but its getting there, there is low unemployment and people are starting to feel confidence in the US economy.   The time for left rubbish was after the 08 crash, the US voted in Obama, first in 08 and then 12.   The Obama Administration is seen to have failed by most Americans, the US needs another Reagan not another Obama.   The left as nowhere to go, its either voting for Hillary or a wasted vote, the Clintons have the aces and they play to win. 

IS Update - New War on Terror

BBC News: Reports " Iraq 'retakes over quarter of Islamic State territory' "

Lets Get Real:

There has been progress in Iraq, but its slow and blood, the Iran forces have shown that they can fight but are slow in actually getting rid of IS, also when the US is called in the Tehran groups withdrew, Iran does not want to share victory with the US.    The Iraq/ Syria conflict plays in to other problems, the Iran Regime is supporting Assad in Syria, while the West is trying to create a secular fighting force to fight Assad.  While in Yemen Saudi Arabia is fighting a Tehran supported group, the US is helping SA as it does not want to do any fighting in the Middle East when it comes to ground troops.   On the whole good news for the Obama Oval, its use of airplanes to attack IS is working, but Mosul is a different matter, that will take US troops. 

The Conservative Manifesto and 2015

Conservative Manifesto and 2015: 

Main Points:

• An Extra 8 Billion for the NHS
• The extension of the right to buy for people in housing associations in England
• No income tax on those earning minimum wage 
• A freeze on train fares in till 2020
• A vote on the EU

Vote Conservative on May 7 2015

Conservatives 6% ahead of Labour - Election 2015

Telegraph:  Reports " ..the survey by ICM for The Guardian newspaper put the Tories ahead on 39 per cent ahead of Labour on 33 per cent, the party’s highest lead for three years. "

Lets Get Real:

As with the Labour lead of six points last week, this is just a poll of a moment in time.   This does not change the prediction of this blog, of Labour win even a majority Labour Government.   The manifesto launch today was FULL of hot air, no real costings, just promises to tax rich, there are never enough rich people, the bringing back of the 50p rate for the rich could actually cost the Country money.   Also the non dom ban is not that clear as there will be exceptions, the Labour manifesto is what the elite at the BBC and Guardian would write, a lot of promises but no bill, it could be argued that Miliband is following the example of Greek left Government, promising what ever people want to hear and then breaking those promises once in power. 

The Hillary Tour - Election 2016

Guardian: Reports the following, " The reality is that Clinton has already lapped the four men who say they are officially exploring the possibility of a challenge – and already looks destined to win the Iowa caucus and Democratic nomination. "

Lets Get Real:

The Guardian has already crowned Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee before a vote has been cast.   That kind of perception is a threat to the Hillary Clinton campaign, what is the point of the trip to Iowa if its already over, the good people of Iowa have seen politicians come and go, they can smell a spin from miles ahead.  The problems with Hillary is she is too well known, First Lady of the US, US Senator from New York and finally Secretary of State, what more is to tell.   IF there are no candidates to challenge her the press will do the job, and this Clintons, they always give good copy, that could be a major threat to the Clintons, the press becomes the opposition, so far so good for Hillary. 

The Labour Manifesto - Election 2015

BBC News: Read the Labour Manifesto for 2015. 

Lets Get Real: 

Lets recall this is the Party that left the UK with no money, they say in the Labour Manifesto the following, " Our manifesto begins with the Budget Responsibility Lock we offer the British people. It is the basis for all our plans in this manifesto because it is by securing our national finances that we are able to secure the family finances of the working people of Britain. "  In other words the Party that stated there would no long be boom and bust wants to enforce that rule BY LAW, they do not even trust themsevles on the economy.   The Labour Manifesto is full of promises that would make the Guardian and the BBC feel a warm glow, what it does not say IS what it will do about welfare, immigration, all the real hard problems.    If your foolish then vote Labour, if you a have a brain cell left after this tedious election vote Conservative.   Labour always make a mess of the economy, its the gold rule of politics, are you that simple to trust them again!

New Poll - neck and neck in UK General Election 2015

Telegraph: Reports " An average of the results put the Conservatives on 31.8 per cent of the vote and Labour on 31.7 per cent – a “wafer thin” difference of just 0.1 per cent. "

Lets Get Real:

Thus as before the election was called we are back to neck and neck race between the Conservative Party and Labour, the LibDems are third, so what will break it for Labour, as stated this blog being objective has Labour winning due to the simple fact that it takes less Labour votes to elect an MP than it does a Conservative.   Thus in fact the Conservative might be ahead in the vote share it will be down in Seats, the combination of Labour with the LibDems or the SNP will allow for a Labour Government.   The rich will get hit by higher taxes, the markets will take the view that Labour will spend more, and we will have a financial crisis with a few years of Labour getting elected.  History just repeats itself. 

HRC Day - Election 2016

Guardian: Reports " Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign: world's worst-kept secret ends Sunday...Low-key announcement on Twitter, video and email will serve as early test of ‘humble’ Clinton machine after 2008 loss to Obama – and before 2016 barrage "

Lets Get Real:

Two words that should never be used when in connection to the Clintons is low key and humble, neither Bill or Hillary do that, one would wish they could do humble, not in their political DNA.   The idea that Hillary has learned from 2008 is open to question, this day has been coming for years, will Hillary be able to do only small meets, about 10 people, to listen and learn what the problems are for Iowan voters are, also can see learn not to be so stiff in public, be relaxed, she is no Bill Clinton, and she should not try, she has to give the impression of being humble and not the pre destined nominee, this blog has its doubts, but the fun starts, a long year and half if your not a political geek, great is your one, endless polls and debates.