Obama's WEAK Spot - Pennsylvania

CNN Politics: Reports on a Franklin and Marshall College poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania, the poll finds that President Obama leads Governor Romney by 49% to 45%, a 4% lead. 

Lets Get Real:

What if President Obama was to win Ohio but to lose Pennsylvania to Governor Romney, this would mean a Romney Presidency, the lead is narrow folks, VERY, also as the article notes both Campaigns are going to throw money at Pennsylvania up to election day.   This is the State to watch folks, if its very close or Romney ahead at the start of election night expect great worry in the Oval.  If Obama keeps the State then he gets a 2nd term.   That simple folks, this blog likes it when it is simple.   

Ohio - Obama's State - New Poll

CNN Politics: Reports on a new CBS News/NYT/Quinnipiac University Poll of Ohio, in this poll of likely voters we see President Obama leading Governor Romney by 50% to 45%, a 5% lead. 

Lets Get Real:

This follows a pattern folks, either POTUS is leading in Ohio or tied with Romney, thus this blog is going to call Ohio for Obama, a narrow win, with early voting and and the excellent ground game of the Obama team and the Unions they should secure Ohio.   Thus a 2nd term for President Obama.   The Romney surge came to late folks, if that 1st Debate had taken place some time before, if the Hurricane Sandy had not placed Obama in a good light.     Thus the Romney surge while it was real came to late, also events and events folks.   This blog hates to be wrong. 

Post Sandy and Romney - 2012 US Election

BBC News:  Reports that Governor Romney returns to the Campaign trail.  

Lets Get Real:

What does the article does not mention and is the latest is that President Obama will also return to the Campaign trail tomorrow after visiting New Jersey.  The Oval wanted to go to New York but was told in diplomatic language to get lost.   The last thing the good people of NY need while they are cleaning up  the water is a Presidential drive by, think of the security that would be needed, also people would be diverted by having the Oval about, the liberal press would want  photo ops of Obama holding buckets if they could get that kind of picture.   Thus its back to politics tomorrow folks, lets see if POTUS gets a bounce from Sandy, that should turn up around Friday or Saturday. 

Hurricane Sandy and Politics

BBC News - Live:Sandy: Reports at the finger pointing post Hurricane Sandy, Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey is not best pleased with the Mayor Langford of Atlantic City, they are in dispute of the planned vacation of residents from the City. 

Lets Get Real:

People have died folks, our thoughts are with those that have lost people, but this is a political blog, so how does this effect the election, as New York is a save Democratic State as is NJ then on the whole the effects might not be that much, if this was Ohio, both candidates would be out with buckets to get the WATER out, do not quite see either of them doing that for NY, for the Oval it would LOOK like a cheap political shot, NY is secure, plus it would cause havoc to have POTUS wondering around, for Governor Romney NY is not  in play and and cheap picture shots would not work, lets keep politics out of NY, let them clean up, all they need is the money from D.C.   Thus back to politics folks. 

Deaths in Afghanistan

MOD: Reports that today two UK Soldiers were killed in Afghanistan by a man wearing a Afghan Police Uniform, the Soldiers were from the " 1st Battalion The Royal Gurkha Rifles ".   Thus since 2001 the UK has lost 437 of its Armed Forces Personnel in Afghanistan, of that total it has lost 394 in combat/hostile action, while 43 have died due to illness, accidents and other incidents. 

Obama and Hollywood - 2012 US Election

Guardian: Reports the following should President Obama win re-election, " If Obama wins it will to some extent be thanks to his Hollywood genie. ".

Lets Get Real:

Lets get one thing clear folks, Hollywood is not the rest of the US, its fiction land, reality is what was the gross of your last film, do people watch your TV show or go to the Cinema the 2nd time to watch your film.   The uber left in Hollywood do not represent Main Street, they keep the people as far away as they can, its called their security.    If Hollywood had been charge Carter, Mondale any other Democrat would have gotten elected, and YES the USSR would still be around.   The common sense of Hollywood is like Bankers of 2008, they do not have one, they see think fiction is reality, when you live your life with a fake reality you can miss the real world, that is Hollywood folks. 

Do Polls LIE ? - 2012 US Election

Telegraph: Looks at how the uber liberal NYT looks at poll evidence, the article notes the following, " ..has there ever been such an effort by one side to poll their way to victory?...We’ve witnessed the evolution of polling from an objective gauge of the public mood to a propaganda tool: partisan and inaccurate. ".

Lets Get Real:

Lets recall folks that the Uber liberal NYT covered for Stalin, thus they will do what ever it takes to get President Obama re-elected, they have not covered Libyagate in full as it might hurt the Oval.   This blog has been worried for months that the National and State polls have be bent to benefit the Oval.    Although this blog is suspect of polls it has projected that President Obama will get a 2nd term.   With the exception of the last poll from Ohio this blog has not seen a poll with Romney ahead.   This blog is keeping with its projection due to the Obama ground game in Ohio and because the Unions are going out of their way to support their man, they need Obama in the Oval to protect their rights from their point of view.    Lets see how Hurricane Sandy effects the polls, will Obama get a bounce or he will become another Bush 43.  It is down to Mother Nature folks. 

Ohio, Obama's State ? - 2012 US Election

Rasmussen Reports: Has a new State poll from Ohio, in this poll Governor Romney is leading President Obama by 50% to 48%, a 2% lead. 

Lets Get Real:

This is first poll this blogger has seen with Governor Romney ahead, it could be a real lead or just an outrider of a poll.  The real news is Hurricane Sandy and the performance of President Obama.  If there is a disaster and the Oval handles it better than Bush 43 then the Oval will get a 2nd term.  IF NOT, then it is all over.   The press for the next few days will be fixated on Mother Earth and her actions, not the ground game in Ohio.   Never less an interesting poll folks. 

Hurricane Sandy and the US Election

BBC News: Reports how Hurricane Sandy is causing having to planned US Presidential Campaigns of President Obama and Governor Romney. 

Lets Get Real:

This could be a major natural disaster that could hit the US, or it could fizzle out, the question for this blog does it effect the US Election.    The simple answer hard to say folks, depends on the results of Sandy, does she make Obama look Presidential, if it all goes wrong does he fall in to the same category of Bush 43 after his hurricane disaster.   Lets see the results and the polls folks, but more important than politics lets hope no one is hurt. 

Romney BAD MAN - Obama/Biden Advert

Lets Get Real:

This is  a very negative advert, it makes Romney out to to be what LIBERALS think is bad.  How effective, not that much, the debates really did destroy this image.  The Obama team is still throwing this kind of rubbish out, why, if they are going to WIN? 

Obama KICKING of the US - Romney/Ryan Advert

Lets Get Real:

This advert is good, really goes after Obama's weak Middle East Policy and his coldness towards Israel.  Also in political terms it goes after the Jewish vote.  Thus a WIN WIN for the Romney team.   The problem for Romney is that the 1st debate came to late, if the debate had come weeks before then Romney/Ryan might have won, still doubt its going to happen folks. 

Ohio Polls - 2012 US Election

RCP: Reports on its average of the State Polls from Ohio, as of today President Obama leads Governor Romney by 48.0% to 45.7%, a 2.3% lead. 

Lets Get Real: 

Thus folks this Blog has not seen a Ohio Poll that has Romney leading Obama, either Obama is leading or is tied with Romney.  All the polls can not be bent, thus the projection by this blog that POTUS will get a 2nd term.  President Obama has to WIN Ohio and not lose any Blue States.    It will be a very narrow win folks, Obama might win the Electoral College but lose the national vote, also the Republicans could take Congress, they already control the House, they are close to taking the Senate.    Thus the next four years could be very hard for the Chicago political mob.  As the old saying goes, to Win is to Lose. 

The Tracking Polls - 2012 US Election

Thus folks its that time of the week, the Obama vs. Romney Polls of likely Voters.

Rasmussen Reports: Today in its daily tracking poll we find Governor Romney leading President Obama by 50% to 46%, a 4% lead. 

Gallup: Reports in its tracking poll that Governor Romney leads President Obama by 51% to 46%, a 5% lead. 

Lets Get Real: 

Thus folks it seems that Governor Romney has a lead of between 4% to 5%.  Its healthy folks, and one would normally project a winner even this far out, but its down to the Electoral College folks.  Thus Governor Romney might win the popular vote as VP Gore did in 2000 but lose the Oval to President Obama, as the last poll this blog saw had Obama with a small lead in Ohio.   Thus even with these National Polls this blog is still keeping to a 2nd Obama term.  Of course should the polls be found to be a fraud in favour of the Democrats this blog will not be happy.   Thus folks, a VERY long night waiting for Ohio. 

Afghanistan Front News

MOD: Has announced the names of the two UK Armed Forces Personnel killed on Wednesday in Afghanistan,  they were " Corporal David O’Connor from 40 Commando Royal Marines and Corporal Channing Day from 3 Medical Regiment ".  Our thoughts are with the families of Corporals O'Connor and Day. 

No More Gender Gap - 2012 US Election

Telegraph Live - US Election: Reports that the previous female gender gap that benefited President Obama has gone a new AP-Gfk Poll has found, the article notes the following, " .. Barack Obama at one point has a 16 point advantage with women over Mitt Romney. ....The poll shows Romney pulling even with Obama among women at 47-47 after lagging by 16 points a month earlier. "

Lets Get Real:

The three Presidential debates really helped Governor Romney, the Obama Camp has spent multi millions on the message  that Romney was a rich guy out of touch with Main Street, the debates showed that Romney understood the pain of main street, he always took the message back to the economy.   Women voters care about social issues such as abortion, but they also want a good job.  On that score President Obama has failed women, thus the above poll.    The Obama Team will really have to push the abortion issue, they will have to scare women that Romney will bring back in backstreet abortions, lets see if these scare tactics work folks.   This blog is starting to have its doubts. 

Early Vote gets to BE POTUS - 2012 US Election

BBC News: Reports that President Obama has voted early, this is an attempt to get early voters and thus the lead in early voting States. 

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks lets see if this works, the Democratic Campaign machine and Unions have an effective field operation, thus should help POTUS in Ohio and Florida.    The only weak point for POTUS is if he losses some big BLUE States, this would change the picture of a Obama WIN, it would be a narrow defeat.   It is going to be close folks, its going to be a VERY long time, still this blog is predicting that Obama will get a 2nd term, but a Republican Congress and the wish by 2016 that he has lost, politics is not fair folks, it is a harsh business, even by winning you could lose. 

Obama vs. Bush 43

Lets Get Real:

This is a VERY odd TV advert from the Obama Camp.   They seem to be re - fighting the 2000 Campaign. One has to say POTUS has a thing about Bush 43, any problem and its the fault of the Bush years.  The Chicago Obama team must be worried about Ohio, they must have internal polls that show a very close race.  The voter on main Street might think that its funny or that that Obama has gone a bit crazy.  2000 was 12 years ago folks.  Last time this blog looked POTUS could not time travel!.  A very odd advert folks. 

Deaths in Afghanistan

MOD: Reports that today in Afghanistan the UK lost two of its Armed Forces Personnel, they were, " A Royal Marine from 40 Commando Royal Marines and a soldier from 3 Medical Regiment ".  Thus since 2001 the UK has lost 435 of its Armed Forces Personnel in Afghanistan, of that total it has lost 392 in combat/hostile action, while 43 have died due to illness, accidents or other incidents.  

Obama and Libya - Libyagate

Guardian Live - US Election: Reports the following White House reaction to the news last night that the White House was informed at the time of the Libyan attacks that the US Consulate was under terrorist attack, the article notes the following, " ..the White House rejected the notion that the emails contradicted the Obama administration's public statements about the attacks. ".

Lets Get Real:

Folks, there must be something in the Chicago water, it seem to the Chicago political mob if you tell a lie   a hundred times it makes it real.  The Obama White House has been caught in a COVER UP.   The terrorist attack on the US Consulate in Libya came just after the DNC, it blew the image that Al Qaeda was finished out of the water.   Thus days of double speak by the the Oval and the Administration.   The Chicago Water must create delusions, who else would accept a Noble Prize for doing nothing, that says it all folks. 

Eastwood on Obama/ Romney Super Pac

Lets Get Real:

Does Dirty Harry or the Man with No Name still have political effect, lets see if Mr Eastwood's words have some effect in the Ohio.   Good advert, nice to see Dirty Harry telling the US Voter the unvarnished truth about the State of the US. 

Ohio - New Poll

Rasmussen Reports: Has a new Ohio Poll, this was taken after the the final debate between President Obama and Governor Romney, in this poll they are tied at 48%. 

Lets Get Real:

Thus it comes down to ground game folks, the Democrats have gotten their early voters out, the Republicans have improved their operation, its down to planning now folks, can the Democrats and the Unions get their people to the polls, its is the same with the Republicans and their Super Pacs.   Both political operations will be thinking about Ohio, Ohio and Ohio.   Of course on election night it could be a red or blue State that causes a surprise, all this focus on Ohio might be missing the point, that is why election nights are fun folks. 

Romney vs. Obama - 2012 Race - The Polls

Folks, lets have a look at the weekend Polls for the 2012 US Presidential Election.

These are Polls of likely voters.

Rasmussen Reports: In its daily tracking poll it finds that Governor Romney leads President Obama by 50% to 46%, a 4% lead. 

Gallup: Reports in its daily tracking poll that Governor Romney leads President Obama by 50% to 47%.  A 3% lead. 

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks, Romney in two national daily tracking polls has a lead of between 3% and 4%, as long as President Obama can keep his firewall of Ohio then he will get a 2nd term.    The major change for both sides was the 1st Presidential Debate, Romney was the clear winner, Obama in that debate looked like he wanted to be any place else, in the two following debates Obama came out fighting, even MEAN, but so far the polls have not shown a Obama bounce.  This blog is still keeping to its prediction that Obama will get a 2nd term, but it could be like 2000 folks, while Romney gets the popular vote the electoral college goes to POTUS.   That would be an upset folks, but that is the fun of politics. 

The Oval and Iran

The White House: Statement by the Obama White House on the NYT story that Iran had agreed to one to to one talks with the US after the election, the statement states the following, " It’s not true that the United States and Iran have agreed to one-on-one talks or any meeting after the American elections. We continue to work with the P5+1* on a diplomatic solution and have said from the outset that we would be prepared to meet bilaterally. The President has made clear that he will prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and we will do what we must to achieve that. It has always been our goal for sanctions to pressure Iran to come in line with its obligations. The onus is on the Iranians to do so, otherwise they will continue to face crippling sanctions and increased pressure. "

Lets Get Real:

Its seems the Chicago Oval has been caught with its hand in the cookie char folks.  When was the last time to you trusted a White House statement from the this Chicago political mob.   If your in Israel would you feel safe, do you trust Obama to come to your back, if so your a fool.   This statement has just confirmed the story for this blog. 

Romney and the use of Torture - 2012 Race

Guardian Live - US Election: Reports the following on Governor Romney view of torture when it comes to terrorist suspects, the article notes the following, " Romney appears to favor the use of torture in some cases.  His team of advisers includes figures from the Bush administration who were among the most aggressive advocates of torture. ".

Lets Get Real: 

Folks this is fantastic news, what if Romney had been in the White House at the time of the Libya Consulate attacks,  the terrorists would have known if they killed the Ambassador they faced legal torture but not death.  A frightened terrorist is always good folks, terrorists should be afraid of the reaction of Western powers.  Lets be honest here folks, very honest, the Arab Street respects fear, it does not fear President Obama.   The Arab Streets smells fear, and they see in Obama another Jimmy Carter, a American President that can be pushed around, that is the trick followed by Iran and Syria.   The West should have agents like Jack Bauer and James Bond, doing the dirty work that keeps the rest of us safe.   Thus torture and what ever needs to be done has to be used, its not a nice world folks, you have to fight fire with fire, if you do not you lose your Ambassador due to assassination. 

Obama lead in Ohio - 2012 Race

Telegraph Live - US Election: Reports on the latest poll from Ohio, in the CBS News/ Quinnipiac University Poll President Obama leads Governor Romney by 50% to 45%, a 5% lead. 

Lets Get Real:

As long as POTUS keeps Ohio he wins, thus the Obama team have to spend their million on TV adverts and an effective ground game.   The multi millions spent by the Obama team to define Romney as a rich guy out of touch has worked, thus they have to keep this line up to election day.   Of course this could be a outrider poll, lets see other local polls from Ohio.   The election could hinge on the debate tonight, as long as POTUS has a decent performance he should get a 2nd term. 

The 3rd Presidential Debate - 2012 US Election

BBC News: Reports that the 3rd Presidential Debate on Foreign Policy should cover Iran and Libya.

Lets Get Real: 

These two issues are weak spots for the Oval, the report yesterday in the liberal New York Times that Iran had agreed to one to one talks about its nuclear plans without Israel being informed will allow Romney to paint Obama as a appeaser, while on Libya the destruction of the US Consulate and its aftermath will open the President to the allegation that he was playing politics with the issue, that he did not want to really state that the attack was a planned terrorist attack because it would undermine his argument that Al Qaeda was dead after this approval of the mission that killed OBL.   This is a chance for Governor Romney to show his Presidential ability when it comes to the World Stage.  One would expect that POTUS should win, he should have the info to rebuke Romney.   Lets see who wins the debate folks, and by how much, prediction, a close battle, with Obama winning on points. 

Obama's State - Ohio - 2012 Race

RCP: Reports on its average of the State polls in Ohio, as of today President Obama leads Governor Romney by 48.1% to 46.0%, a lead of 2.1%. 

Lets Get Real:

Ohio is President Obama's firewall, he needs to protect his narrow lead there at all costs, thus money and constant visits by Obama and his team, even VP Biden.   As election day closes expect multi millions to be spent on TV adverts and getting the election ground game up for the day.   Every night the Obama Chicago team should be only thinking about OHIO, OHIO and OHIO.   If Obama wins Ohio he wins a 2nd term, as did Bush 43 in 2004 against Senator Kerry.   The poor people of Ohio are going to get fed up of the political process before election day. 

A Tied Race - 2012 Race

Telegraph: Reports on a new NBC News/WSJ Poll that have both President Obama and Governor Romney tied at 47%, the article notes the following, " Mr Romney closed a three-point lead held by the president in the survey before their first debate. ". 

Lets Get Real: 

The race was always getting to get closer folks, the big Obama leads would narrow after the Presidential debates, as long as POTUS keeps Ohio and does not lose Ohio he WINS.   Although as the article notes the Obama lead in Ohio has fallen to 1%, in other words a neck and neck race.  The bright spot in the article for the Obama team is the early voting that favours the President and the excellent ground game of the Democrats and their allies the Unions.   It is going to be  long election night folks, in the vain of 2000 and 2004, keep that coffee hot folks. 

US and Iran - 2012 Race

BBC News:  Reports that the Obama White House had denied that Iran has agreed to one to one talks with the US.  

Lets Get Real:

If this story was leaked by someone who was trying to help President Obama it was a BIG MISTAKE.   The Republicans have already given the impression that Obama is a appeaser when it comes to Iran, the last thing POTUS needs is the impression that he is selling out Israel, from TV reports it seems that Israel was not aware of these secret talks.   One has to assume that the Israeli Intelligence, the Mossad knew, they tend to know what is going in the Middle East before the West.   One can postulate that Governor Romney will bring this issue up in the final debate, Obama has to careful, if he sounds to liberal he losses Florida and its Jewish voters.  If to hawkish on Iran he losses his liberal base.  Thus its a tricky subject for the Oval.  Lets get honest here folks, all Presidents, even the great Reagan had major Foreign Policy disasters when it comes to Iran.    The biggest was Jimmy Carter and the holding of US Diplomats as hostages for 444 days.   Thus a US President should keep on the Israeli page and keep Iran at a very far distance.   It never helps the Oval to get in to bed with Tehran. 

Romney 7% Lead over Obama - Gallup

Gallup ( LV ): Reports today that Governor Romney leads President Obama by 52% to 45%, a 7% lead.

Lets Get Real:

If your a Republican your happy, if your a Democrat you get worried, this is national poll, as long as POTUS keeps Ohio, and does not lose some big blue States then he will get a 2nd term.  Also we have the final Presidential Debate on Monday, that is Tuesday morning in the UK.   One would assume that the Obama team will have a clear story when it comes to Libya and Iran.    POTUS won on points in the 2nd debate, in this final debate he has to win BIG.   The President can not afford to have a bad debate as like his 1st, if that was to happen then even this blog would have serious doubts about 2nd Obama term. 

Obama's State - Ohio - 2012 Race

Lets Get Real:

This advert by the Obama Team is simple but savage, this is why Obama will take Ohio, and thus a 2nd term.  The Romney/Ryan Team have never been that savage, thus why they will not win.  Romney needed to WIN Ohio, and its not going to happen folks.   Politics is quite brutal, that is why its fun. 

Romney, HOPE - Romney/Ryan Advert

Lets Get Real:

Clever move by the Romney Team, they are nicking the HOPE AND CHANGE message of Obama in 2008.   It is pity they did not move to this track early on, if they had they could have won.    Even with the polls looking good for Romney this blog still sees a 2nd Obama Term.   Lets see what the 3rd debate on Foreign Policy bring folks. 

The Liberal Left and Obama - 2012 Election

Guardian - US Election Live: Reports the following on MSNBC, " Cable news hosts on MSNBC are in danger of disappearing up their own hysteria before this election is over. ".

Lets Get Real:

Voter if you really want to send the NYT, ABC,NBC,CBS, in the UK Guardian and the BBC bonkers just election Governor Romney, if that was to happen you would hear the mental scream from both sides of the Atlantic, the News divisions would be on 24 hours Prozac.   Lets get serious, the uber left wing news media, in both print and TV/Internet have so much invested in the 1st African - American President that if he was to lose they would lose, so expect a wave of critical stories on Romney close to election day.    That is the one thing that will happen, people and and institutions do not change much folks. 

The CIA strikes BACK on Oval - 2012 Election

Telegraph: Reports the following on Libyagate, " ..CIA sources said they had reported "within 24 hours" that the assault was carried out by Islamist militants. ".

Lets Get Real:

Thus we have the mess that is Libyagate, in D.C its not the scandal that kills you but the cover up, the Obama Administration made great play at the DNC that it had killed OBL.   Then on 9/11 a franchise of Al Qaeda put that message at risk with the destruction of the US Consulate in Libya, after that the Obama Administration was all over the place, days after the attacks the US UN Ambassador on the US Sunday talk shows was stating that the deaths were down to a vile video.  Only in the past few days has Hillary Clinton taken the heat for the Oval.   Then after that didn't work the Oval placed blame on the CIA.  NEVER A GOOD IDEA, they can hit back hard, thus the above story.   Thus when did the President know IT was a terrorist attack and when did he decide it was a threat to to his re-election.   When ever POTUS opens his mouth on the subject he makes it worse.  

Al's Dinner - US Election 2012

BBC News: Reviews the stand up routines of President Obama and Governor Romney at the Alf Smith Dinner.

Lets Get Real:

Historical Note: Mr Smith ran for the Presidency in the early phase of the 20th Century, he lost. 

The gags were not bad from the Candidates, they have decent script writers, as to who WON, if you can win a stand up, that goes to Governor Romney, he was more pointed, and funnier, he played with his wealth.   His line that he could NOW wear his former dinner clothes after so much time on the campaign was fun.  As to President Obama, there was a subtext, one can almost say that he has considered that he might lose.   That would have been a major shock to the Obama psyche.   As expected CNN reviews called the night for Obama while back on Fox the reverse, one can almost write the reactions before people speak. 

Romney HATES Women - Obama/Biden Advert

Lets Get Real:

Thus the Democratic argument that Republicans hates women, if you want restrictions on abortion you should not get any women votes.   Here is Obama pandering on abortion, low politics but very effective, thus 2nd term.  Its the Chicago way folks. 

Obama's failure on Medicare and Social Security - Romney/Ryan Advert

Lets Get Real:

This is good negative advert by the Romney/Ryan ticket, its a negative advert, it wants to scare older voters that Medicare and Social Security are at risk.   This is normally a Democratic attack on Republicans.  Nice switch.  Lets see if it has any effect on the polls. 

Romney LEADS Obama - Gallup

Gallup: Reports on its daily tracking poll of likely voters, today Governor Romney leads President Obama by     51% to 45%.  A lead of 6%.

Lets Get Real:

This is a poll not taking in to account the 2nd debate folks, the elite media will make sure that that a narrow Obama win in the debate will be seen as a big win, the uber print and news will have to much invested in President Obama to throw him under the bus now, they were not happy about his 1st debate performance, but what matters to them is defeating the Republican.   Thus in the coming days expect President Obama to regain the lead, a close election folks, it will be a long night and morning, but expect Ohio to put Obama over the top, as it did in 2004 with Bush 43.   Can not wait for 2016 folks. 

Romney Review - 2012 Election

Telegraph: Reports that President Obama's attacks on Romney and his reaction " ..reveal the snappy, irritable side of his character and, implicitly, his fitness for the highest office.  ".

Lets Get Real:

The above is a harsh critical review folks, that is not the debate that this blog watched and tweeted on last night, yes POTUS won but it was not a knocked down like the first Romney win, also Romney was still on his feet, and on the issues the voters supported Romney.   In 2004 Senator Kerry won the debates against Bush 43 but lost the election, a win can be hollow, in its  reaction, this blog gave the debate to Obama but if US voter would never vote for POTUS.  The election will be narrow folks, it will come down to Ohio, the Obama team have a good ground game and have the money to keep it going, the base of the Democratic Party will be happy with last nights debate, but so will be the Republicans.   The game is election terms is not over, few more polls to go folks. 

Post Review Debate - 2012 Election

BBC News: Reports on the narrow win for President Obama in the 2nd Presidential Debate.

Lets Get Real:

Although a CNN poll gave the edge to President Obama in the debate, on the issues in that very same poll the registered voters come out in support of the Romney's economic message.  The President was strong, on point but quite rude, a few times he made personal attacks on Governor Romney, in US female terms being MEAN, how will that go down well with women, Obama pandered on social issues, from abortion to immigration, but never said what a 2nd Obama term would look like.   Thus this blog was right in its prediction, and still holds that Obama will win a 2nd term, but the Congress will go Republican and the US will go over a financial cliff, in 2016 the Republicans will win the Oval and have control of all branches of US Government.  

Ohio - Obama's State

Thus folks lets look at the State that will decide the 2012 election, that is Ohio.   Lets have a look at the RCP Average of the State polls for Ohio. 

At present President Obama leads Governor Romney in the average of the State polls in Ohio by 48.3% to 46.1%.  Thus a 2.2% lead. 

Lets Get Real:

Thus Chicago Obama team have played this election in a wise manner, they used their early funds to define Romney in the rust belt State, they defined Romney as a out of touch rich guy, who while in business sent jobs abroad, the 1st debate victory by Romney came  to late, early voting has already started in a majority of the States.  In Ohio the early votes have gone to Obama, thus with the lead that POTUS has it can be argued that Ohio is in the Obama bag.    The Republicans will give Obama a close race, on election night do not expect a early night folks, could be like 2000 and 2004 mid morning before a confirmed Obama win.  What will be interesting will be the results in Congress, does Obama have long coat tails, who controls the House and Senate, also who are front runners for 2016.  

Moderator GONE Rogue ? - 2nd 2012 Debate

Guardian: Reports that moderator for the 2nd President Debate has come under attack from the Romney/Obama teams, the article notes the following, " ..Obama and Romney campaigns have contacted the Commission on Presidential Debates to voice concerns over the role of the moderator, Candy Crowley,.. ".

Lets Get Real:

It seems that Ms Crowley great offence is that she wants to be a reporter, ask tough questions, get the Candidates off their scripted answers.  Good for her, the Campaigns try to control every aspect of the political process, it about time that a reporter faced their wrath and acted like a reporter.  Lets hope the rest of the reports in D.C support her, it does not matter if she is accused of  biased either way, it will happen folks, this blog expects that, but if she gives tough questions to both Obama and Romney then this blog will be happy.   

Obama vs. Romney - Pre Debate Polls

Before the 2nd Debate folks lets have a look at the Polls.   It would be wise to look at these polls at the end of the week to see if the debate has changed the course of the election.  These are likely voter Polls. 

Rasmussen Reports:  In its daily tracking poll today we find that Governor Romney leads President Obama by 49% to 48%.  A 1% lead. 

Gallup: Reports that Governor Romney leads President Obama by 49% to 47%.  A 2% lead.

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks in essence we have a tied race, the Romney lead is within the margin of error, also as noted in previous post we have Obama lead of 3% in the ABC News/Washington Post Poll.   As Obama as the ground game and the money for election day it can be expected that he can get his vote out, in this he will be helped by the Unions.   The Romney bounce from the debate has gone away, it lingers in the above polls but expect Obama to be on top by the end of the week.   

Obama vs. Romney - 2nd Debate

BBC News: Reports that President Obama and Governor Romney are getting ready for their 2nd Presidential debate on Tuesday.

Lets Get Real:

Folks the Obama Team will make sure that POTUS wins the 2nd debate, this will follow a Presidential trend, in 1984 Reagan had a bad debate, so did Bush 43 in 2004, but they came back strong, thus expect a combative Obama in the 2nd debate.   This is not 1980 when Reagan finished off Carter in their only debate.       Also the format helps POTUS, its a town meeting, thus Obama should be able to connect to the voters  like Bill Clinton.   Also as the article notes the latest ABC News/Washington Post Poll has POTUS leading by 49% to 46%.   Thus the President has to be combative but not like his VP, that would not be him, it would look fake.   Thus 2nd Obama term and the Republicans and Democrats will be looking at 2016. 

No more LOVE Mr President - NYT

The New York Times: The UBER liberal Maureen Dowd writes the following on Obama 1st debate, " The fact that one diffident debate by the president could throw his whole race into crisis shows that nobody madly loves Obama anymore.  ".

Lets Get Real:

This lack of loyalty should worry the 2nd term Obama team, 2nd terms always have major downs, what is going to happen when that happens to Obama, is his support so THIN, that when the tea bags hit the fan there will be no back up for the Oval.    Also 2016 is around the corner, thus if Obama polls take a dive in a 2nd term Democrats will want some distance, they will want ever further distance should VP Biden decide to run in 2016, that would be GOD send to the Republicans.  Both Reagan and Clinton had their supporters when they faced political oblivion, one has to ask will Obama.    The fact that ubera liberals have jumped on Obama after his disaster of a 1st debate shows that that the Obama support is very thin, and that they will run away should there be a major disaster in a 2nd Obama term.    The President will come out strong in the 2nd debate, its a town hall format, thus expect the Obama Team to drill Obama to fake like he is happy to be there, goes after Romney, but not like he needs prozac, like his VP.    The Oval should remember who jumped ship after the 1st debate, keep them close so they do not throw tea at the Oval tent. 

Obama vs. Romney - Sunday Polls

Lets have a look at the Sunday Polls folks.  These are the Rasmussen and Gallup daily tracking polls of likely   voters.  

Rasmussen Reports: In its poll today we have Governor Romney leading President Obama by 49% to 47%, a 2% lead.

Gallup: Reports in its poll that Governor Romney leads President Obama by 49% to 47%, a 2% lead.

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks we have Rasmussen and Gallup having Romney on a 2% lead among likely voters.   As  stated this blog still gives the election to Obama, what will be interesting for this blog is if Obama has any coat tails, can he help the Democrats in the House and can he keep the Senate Democratic.    Also one could find the reverse of 2000, that Romney wins the popular vote but Obama wins the electoral college.   This theory being on the assumption that Obama wins Ohio and and thus election but that Romney wins the popular vote.  This blog will postulate that it will be a long election night, even the Courts might come in to play, it did in 2000, not that it did much good for Al Gore.   In the 2nd debate expect POTUS to come back like Reagan in 84 and Bush 43 in 2004, the liberal base wants some fight.    The 2nd term Obama team have to play Libyagate scandal with care, no false evidence under oath, its always the cover up that kills not the original crime.   The Oval has already thrown Hillary Clinton under the bus, expect more of that, also that Senator Kerry might get the nod to be Secretary State, what a bore that will be to the press, someone who likes his own voice more that Obama.     Lets be honest Obama can not do any worse than his 1st debate.   Thus Obama win in second debate and 2nd term. 

Libyagate - Libyan Scandal

Guardian Live - Middle East: Reports that 2 former heads of security for the US mission in Libya have stated to  House Committee that the Hillary Clinton's State Department refused requests for more security for the US Consulate in Libya.  The blog post notes the following, " ..Republicans painted a picture of an incompetent state department failing to heed warnings of a growing terrorist threat....then covering up the circumstances of the full scale militia assault.. ". 

Lets Get Real: 

It seems that a 2nd man is going to throw Hillary Clinton under the bus, her husband was the first over his affair, he lied to her, now the Obama Oval needs someone to blame for the death of the US Ambassador in Libya.   Either the Clinton State Department on its own bat, decided the US Consulate in Libya did not need more security or the Oval placed pressure on the State not to send more Americans in to Libya in an election year.  Lets see if Bill Clinton is going to allow his wife to take the political bullet for Obama, if she does she is finished for 2016, her national security background would be in shreds.  Interesting story folks. 

Russia vs. Turkey - Syrian Crisis

Telegraph: Reports that Putin Government in Russia wants a justification by Turkey for its interception of a civilian plane between Russia and Syria. 

Lets Get Real: 

This is just show folks, the Russians are NOW saying that there were no military equipment on the Russian plan, one can assume that the CIA told the Turks that the Russians were supplying their old ally from the days of the Cold War.   The Russians are playing a very risky game, Syrians are backed up by Russia and Iran, while if it comes down to it the Turks are members of NATO, and thus the US would have to support any threat to Turkey.   President Obama could not do a Kennedy and sell out Turkey as President Kennedy did in 1962 over the Cuban Missile Crisis.   Thus the Syrian Civil War has the risk of developing in a major regional War, which has global implications for the US and Russia. 

Syrian/Turkish Front - Syrian Crisis

BBC News: Reports that the Turkish Government has stated that a Russian Plan on route to Syria that it intercepted had military cargo on board. 

Lets Get Real:

The Putin Government will be going through the roof, MR KGB himself, President President will not be happy that its close ally Syria is not getting its support.  This will raise tensions between Syria and Turkey, they are already hot due to Syria shelling Turkey and Turkey responding, if this tension raises it could drag in NATO, and thus the US.   Lets hope the Oval is keeping a close eye on this crisis, better than it did with Libya.   This could turn in to nasty war very fast, it would be good way for the Assad Regime to unite Syria and to create the PR within Syria that the rebels are Western agents, thus lets see how this develops folks. 

Romney Leads Obama - New Poll

The Hill: Reports a new Public Policy Polling Poll, that finds that Governor Romney leads President Obama by 49% to 47%. 

Lets Get Real:

Thus the debate bounce has lasted a few days, the debate was a walk over for Governor Romney, the press needed a close race folks, if the race was over with the 1st debate the media, Press, TV and Internet would not have a lot to write about.   Thus the News media in general needs a close race, the reporters have to justify their expenses in some manner, those bar bills are part of the job.    Thus if this blog is right the next round should go to Obama, and the Obama leads in the national polls and the States should return.   As stated this blog is no fan of POTUS but it looks at the empirical evidence and gives the reader its best logical result.   Nothing in the past few days has changed the mind of this blog. 

The Swing States - US Election

Lets have a look at the two most important Swing States in the 2012 race folks, these are Florida and Ohio.  

Lets have a look at the RCP poll averages for these States.

Ohio: 

In the RCP average of State Polls we have the following, President Obama leads Governor Romney by 48.5% to 47.8, a 0.7% lead.

Sidebar: POTUS has taken so many visits to Ohio he should buy a house there, he or the VP are there that often.   As Ohio is part of the old industrial states there are Unions on the ground that will help POTUS in November. 

Florida:

In the RCP average of the State Polls we have the following, Governor Romney leads President Obama by 48.0%  to 47.3%, a 0.7% lead. 

Sidebar: The Obama team can afford to lose Florida, as long as they pick up Ohio they WIN.   They have much more of an easier path to a 2nd term.    The Jewish vote in Florida because of the tensions between POTUS and Israel might swing the State to Romney.   Also there is the Cuban vote that on the whole does not trust Democrats when it comes to Cuba.   Thus lets give Florida to Romney but Ohio to Obama, thus a 2nd Obama term. 

Romney vs. Obama - Gallup

Gallup ( LV ):  Reports on its daily tracking poll of likely voters, in today's poll Governor Romney leads President Obama by 49% to 47%. A 2% lead.

Lets Get Real:

The kind readers of this blog might be asking as this is Republican/Conservative Blog why it still thinks that President Obama is going to win, three reasons folks, in the next debate POTUS is going to come out fighting, nothing like a cornered Chicago Pol, thus expect a Reagan type comeback in 2nd debate.   The Democrats have collected multi millions in donations, also they have their ground game going, also with the help of the Unions in the Industrial States.    The Romney team has giving it a good fight, it will be close, but it will be 2nd term for POTUS but with a Republican House and Senate.   A good debate and a few good polls do not do a victory folks. 

Obama ATTACKS Romney on Foreign Policy - US Election 2012

Lets Get Real:

The Chicago Team Obama are very effective, they see a threat to the Oval over foreign policy and thus this attack advert.   The next Presidential debate is on foreign policy, on the whole the Oval has a good record from its view, thus they want make sure that Romney has a weak hand going in to the debate.   This is why Obama will get a 2nd term.   When you have to use the uber NYT as your support to attack Romney you know the advert is liberal lies, but effective liberal lies. 

Obama LIES about Romney's TAX PLAN - US Election

Lets Get Real:

This is a good advert by the Romney team, keeping hitting the Oval over its lies about the Romney tax plan.  The problem its to late folks, with early voting and the out spending by the Team Obama this election is over, it will be very close but Obama should WIN by a narrow margin.   Next time the Republicans have to finish their race early and hit the Democrats hard.  On the whole nice try by Team Romney. 

Romney on Obama's failed Foreign Policy - US Election 2012

The New York Times: Reports that Governor Romney attacked the foreign policy of the Obama Administration today, the Governor as the article notes, " ..criticized the president as lacking a comprehensive counterterrorism policy and failing to capitalize on the Arab Spring uprisings. ".

Lets Get Real:

As noted in previous blog post the major weakness for the Oval is the murder of the US Ambassador in Libya, the stonewalling about calling the attack on the US Consulate a terrorists attack does have a smell of a cover up.   The attack came on 9/11, a major theme of the Democratic Convention was that the Oval has killed OBL and that Al Qaeda was a spent force, the murders in Libya spoiled that message.    Thus the murders were blamed on anti Islamic tape.   This cover did not last, it seems that the Oval knew early that it was a terrorists attack.    Also the lack of security at the Consulate has become a major issue, why was there not enough security even after a request by the Ambassador.   This cover up has not reached the mind of the US voter, the success for the drones in Afghanistan and Pakistan has reached the general public, also the removal of troops from Iraq and the planned withdraw of US troops from Afghanistan in 2014.    The US voter is tired of constant WARS, thus no great appeal for another War, in this case with Iran.   Thus it can be argued that Oval is following the wishes of the voter, thus a 2nd term. 

The POLLS after the DEBATE - US Election 2012

Thus folks lets have a look at the US polls after the 1st Presidential Debate between President Obama and Governor Romney.

Rasmussen Reports (LV): In its daily tracking poll it finds that both President Obama and Governor Romney tied at 48%.

Gallup (RV): Reports in its daily tracking poll that President Obama leads Governor Romney by 50% to 45%, a 5% lead.

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks it can be argued that the Debate on the whole has kept the race even, in Rasmussen Obama and Romney are tied when it comes to likely voters, when it comes to Gallup and registered voters we see a 5% lead for POTUS.   Thus the debate bounce for Romney was limited, and the good news on the job front has steadied the Obama boat.  It can be postulated that POTUS will come out fighting in the 2nd debate, and will do a Reagan of 84 and close down this race.   As the 2nd debate is about foreign policy one can expect that POTUS will stated that he gave the order to kill OBL and that the US is out of Iraq and is getting out of Afghanistan.   This is not 1980 when Iran held US hostages, on the whole Obama has a strong hand with foreign policy, the murder of the US Ambassador in Libya has not really made its way in to the mainstream of US voters.   Thus any cover up charges will look odd to US voters.   This blog is still predicting a narrow Obama WIN. 

US Unemployment Rate and the US Election

Telegraph: Reports the following on the surprise drop in the US unemployment rate, the article notes the following, " ..dropped to its lowest level in almost four years, giving President Barack Obama a boost as the presidential race enters its final month. ".

Lets Get Real:

Thus the news cycle will now turn from disaster for the 1st Presidential debate for POTUS to  how good the economy is going, that will be the message of the of the uber liberal main stream media.    There will be talk that President Obama is following the path of Ronald Reagan in 84, that the next debate Obama will come out fighting.   As the news  was unexpected the left will be in praise of the news, while the right will argue that the figures are miss leading, that as stated 8 million Americans have given up looking for work since Obama become President, this will be made to sound like sour grapes by the left.   They will be wrong but it will work, politics is not fair folks, its called democracy. 

US Unemployment DOWN to 7.8% - US Election

BBC News:  Reports that the US Unemployment rate has gone down from 8.1% to 7.8%.

Lets Get Real: 

This will be VERY good news to Team Obama, they can now argue that the US is heading in the right direction, that the US economy is coming back, political perception is reality folks.  The right will argue that since 2009 8 million Americans have given up looking for work, and if you counted those the rate would be 11%.    That does not matter, in 1984 Reagan had 7.5% unemployment rate, also had a bad first debate but came back knocked out VP Mondale in the 2nd debate and won by 59% of the vote, 49 States and 525 electoral votes.   Thus as stated President Obama will win, it will be narrow, also he could lose the US Senate, thus a 2nd term but no mandate.   Doubt he will place Senator Kerry in the State Department after his failure as a coach for the 1st debate.  How about Bill Clinton, that would be interesting move by POTUS. 

Obama TAX HIKER - Romney/Ryan Advert

Lets Get Real:

The Romney Camp hits POTUS over taxes, good advert, always better if an outside group supports you, seems to be giving fair judgement.    Lets see how the US voter reacts to the 1st Presidential debate.  It is a pity that Romney waited so long to come out of the gate fighting, the Chicago political mob defined him before he could really define himself.  But a good try from Romney. 

Obama HITS back after DEBATE - Obama/Biden Advert

Lets Get Real:

This is why President Obama will get a 2nd term folks, the Chicago Obama team hit back after a weak episode.   They hit Romney over his tax plan, stating that the Middle Class would pay for any Romney tax cuts.   The Chicago way might be low but it works folks.