Sabre rattling with WORDS - Brexit Update 1 - Transitional Phase

BBC News: Reports " EU starts legal action against UK over deal breach plan "

Lets Get Real:

Thus we have two tracks, we have the trade talks in Brussels and then we have the above, the EU has promised this for weeks, it can be seen as sabre rattling, trying to show it is strong.  On the trade talks the PM has given a deadline of the 15th of October, so far there is no talk of extending this deadline, in less the talks have progressed.  If the EU is still being stubborn the UK should walk out and blame the EU.  It depends how far Germany will allow Paris to demand the same fish level it has now in the Channel.   If Berlin can not get Paris to back down, then we have a problem, the UK has given a concession, it has talked and tabled a phased reduction of EU States in the Channel, it is very symbolic for the UK, if the France does not allow the EU to back down then we have a  NO DEAL BREXIT.   There is talk of the talks going on in till November, this would be a mistake, the UK has set a deadline, it should resolve any problems with the EU or just walk away.

POTUS after the 1st Debate - US Presidential Debate

BBC News: Reports " President Donald Trump has said a far-right group should "stand down" and let law enforcement do its work, after his refusal to explicitly condemn the group in a TV debate sparked a backlash.  "

Lets Get Real:

It is best to think about a debate after getting a  goodnight sleep and then make a judgement, the debate itself was a horror show or as a CNN reporter called it a Sh*t show.  POTUS attacked Biden from the start and that lasted for 90 minutes and Biden made a mistake by calling POTUS a clown, he might be a clown, but he is still President of the United States, and Biden told Trump to shup up, hardly Presidential.  All Biden had to to was not fall on the stage and finish a sentence, he did that, the bar was that low, but it was noticed by this blog that Biden got tired over the 90 minutes and his vocab was late 1960s.   On the whole the arch liberal press has supported Biden, as expected and gone after every mistake by Trump, while not following up on the question that the moderator asked Biden, would he try to place Democratic Judges on the Supreme Court to counter its right wing tilt of the Court.  Thus far this blog cannot see Biden losing, its for him to lose it.

Has the EU blinked ? - Brexit Update 2 - Transitional Phase

Daily Mail: Reports " Boost to hopes of a Brexit deal as the EU backs down over Boris Johnson's plan to break international law saying it will NOT walk away from trade talks even if it undermines the Withdrawal Agreement  "

Lets Get Real:

In essence, both the UK and the EU are over a barrel, this is not a normal time, there is COVID - 19 write large over the EU countries, the UK is bringing out harsher restrictions by the day.  Both sides need a deal that they can sell to the public but also are good for their economic condition at the present.  The PM has a hard sell, he has to sell any deal to this MPs, who are in rebellion mode at the moment due to COVID - 19.   Both sides need a diversion, the public it can be argued are very much bored with the endless talks, make a decision one way or another.   PM Boris could do with a success, it has been a hard few months since his great general election victory.

Trump and his Supreme Choice, Amy Coney Barrett and the US Presidential Election

This blog has been following the US election news, but it has found it is better not to get caught up the weeds or the tweets of POTUS and the arch liberal press!

Sky News: Reports " Trump's Supreme Court move: Distraction attempt or autocratic assault on democracy?...Amy Coney Barrett will bring change to the court and country but what other motives might Donald Trump have? "

Lets Get Real:

POTUS is in trouble, his polls are bad overall and in the rust belt States, the arch liberal media has been out to get him since 2016 and NOW it has been published that he pays little in Federal Taxes due to his high debts, in other words he can write them off as a negative and pay less.   The first Presidential Debate is tomorrow, 2am in the UK, it will be worth staying up for, as long as Biden does not fall over and look like he can say a sentence he will win the debate, the press will give him pass and he should win the general election in November, however much Trump tries to give the impression that he will not give up, the Republican Party will not allow him to squat in the Oval Office.   The one Ace that Trump has is the nomination for the Supreme Court, if his nominee is successful he will placed three Justice on the Court, as the article make clear, the last President to do that was Reagan.  But and this is a big but, if he wins then voters will free to vote for Biden, they will have the Court, that is their prize.

Internal Market Bill - Brexit Update 1 - Transitional Phase

BBC News: Reports " Michael Gove has said parts of a bill which override provisions in the Brexit deal agreed with the EU would remain, despite EU requests to remove them.  "

Lets Get Real:

These next two weeks have been called crucial if the UK is to do a DEAL with the EU, the UK can not look weak, the Conservative Government can not shelve the Internal Market Bill, that would like weakness and giving in to the EU.  What the PM can do is stall sending the Bill to the House of Lords, it can be expected their Lordships will oppose the Bill, thus cause damage to the trade talks, the UK Government has to be seen as following through, and to use their Conservative Majority to get the Bill through the House of needed and force it through the House of Lords with the Parliamentary Act of 1949, that makes sure that the the House of Commons has the final say.   The EU has to be see that PM Boris means business.

Positive Noise from UK/EU Trade talks - Brexit Update 2 - Transitional Phase

Daily Mail: Reports " Are the UK and EU inching towards a post-Brexit trade deal? Optimism grows after Downing Street welcomes 'useful exchanges' while Brussels says 'the tide is turning' "

Lets Get Real:

This could be No 10 setting a path for a NO DEAL BREXIT and blaming the EU for not giving enough concessions.  On the other hand the UK might give concessions, such on our fish but argue  that the rest of the concessions work for the UK over all.  The next meeting of the two sides is next week, we should also recall that the PM has set a deadline of the 15th of October for a deal to be made, otherwise the UK will walk away from the talks.  As all the action is on the COVID - 19 side the press have let the talks go on without much leaks from the talks, as we get close to the deadline expect more press to look at the talks and seek leaks.   The outcome of the talks could decide the future of the UK.

Will there be a UK/EU Trade Deal ? - Brexit Update 1 - Transitional Phase

BBC News: Reports " "On technical issues we're 90% there," was the upbeat assessment of EU-UK trade talks by a well-informed EU diplomat on Friday. " "

Lets Get Real:

As the article notes the LAST 10% is political, it could go either way, the question is who will blink first.  The EU side see a weak PM, faced with COVID - 19 and rebels on his own side and thus assume that he will take any DEAL.   That would be a BAD assumption, the PM won the 2019 general election on the voters trusting him on Brexit, if the PM states that the EU is not playing fair and a deal is off they will take his view over the EU and the hard press Remain in the UK.  Next week could be make or break, an official meeting in Brussels takes place, who put the white flag up first, who will bend, who will not break.  Interesting.