Obama vs. Boehner - Fiscal Update

The New York Times: Reports on the bad relationship between President Obama and Republican Speaker Boehner is down to a failed attempt at a grand bargain last year, the article notes the following, " a relationship soured by the mutual recriminations after their failure 18 months ago, people on both sides say. ". 

Lets Get Real:

In modern US politics the bases of the Parties control how much freedom D.C Politicians have, the extreme liberals own the Democratic Party, while Conservatives/Tea Party supporters are at the core of the Republican Party.   A political deal might look good in Government terms, as Bush 41 thought with his deal to raise taxes and with cuts  and thus break his pledge not to raise taxes, but those that actually vote and help the Republican candidates get elected thought the deal was BAD, that Bush 41 had broken his word, gone back on the Reagan Agenda.   In his 2nd term Bill Clinton stated in a State of the Union that the Era of Big Government was over, that went down well liberals, thus a factor in Hillary Clinton's loss to President Obama in 2008.    In the 1980s Reagan could do deals with the liberal Speaker of the House Tip O' Neill to save social security and to do tax reform, and these two were loved by their base, thus a good governmental deal and a good political deal requires strong leaders, who know when to hold the line, but can take the heat from the base.   Thus far we have seen all give from Boehner and nothing from POTUS, thus the Speaker has caved and Obama has won, but power on the Hill is fleeting,  the race for 2014 and 2016 starts next year folks.  

One Trillion in TAX HIKES - Fiscal Update

Telegraph: Reports that President Obama has moved form his demand for 1.6 trillion in tax hikes to " reportedly moving closer to Mr Boehner's own offer of $1tr in recent days. ". 

Lets Get Real: 

Thus we get tax hikes, and what does the US get, slow economic growth, a growing welfare states, a Democratic Party that for the next two years will be demanding more tax hikes, YES FOLKS, it never ends.    The Democrats will be demanding with this tax hikes that the Government spend, of course that will never be enough, thus more tax hikes.   The Tea Party/ Conservative Republicans have to challenge Boehner when he seeks re-election for Speaker, the Speaker has sold out the Reagan Agenda, for a pat on the back from POTUS.   Those running for the 2016 Republican Nomination have to be critical of this deal, they have to support  any challenger to Boehner, one can postulate that if Reagan was still about he would not be pleased with Boehner, what is the point of a having a Republican Speaker if he can not be a firewall against a liberal President, shame on Speaker Boehner. 

Kerry for State - Official

Guardian: Reports from the US that " ..with both ABC and CNN reporting that Obama had opted for Kerry. ", neither of these networks would gone with the story if it was not from the Oval. 

Lets Get Real:

If UN Ambassador Rice goes from the UN to be Obama's new National Security Advisor the job of Secretary of State could be all title no horses to use a Texan phrase, as the article notes on the relationship between Hillary Clinton and POTUS, " Conventional thinking in Washington has it that Clinton has never been close to Obama and has tended to be excluded from decision-making on major issues.. ".   Thus the future Secretary Kerry might find as previous US Secretary of States have found that the real foreign policy is done out of the White House, as reported Ambassador Rice is a strong character, so one can expect some tension between the Oval and State, will Rice be the new Kissinger, while Kerry gets the press attention the real news story will be the White House.  ALL 2nd term Presidents sooner or later, and it is sooner in most cases find they are a political dodo on the Hill, at least on foreign policy POTUS has more freedom, thus the article in the NYT that Iran has agreed to one to one talks with the US, one can see Obama thinking he is the new Nixon, that he can open up Iran  for talks, as Nixon did with China and the USSR.  Good luck with that Mr President, Israel might think it has nothing to lose and attack Iran if it thinks that Obama is going to do a JFK and sell them out as Kennedy did with Turkey over the Cuban Missile Crisis.   Thus over the next few years foreign policy will become more central to the Oval, it always does folks. 

Boehner CAVES - SELLS OUT

CNN - Politics: Reports that Republican Speaker John Boehner has " ..has offered to include higher tax rates on the wealthiest Americans as part of a deficit-reduction deal .. ". 

Lets Get Real: 

Thus folks Speaker Boehner has caved, the main difference between Democrats and Republicans has been removed, NOW the Dems can push the Republican House about, the new elected Republicans have broken faith the their voters, the are now just light Democrats.   The Oval will not cut welfare, the Democratic leaders in the House and Senate will not allow that as they face re-election in 2014, they have to keep their base happy, the Republican Nominee in 2016 will have to distance himself from the Republican House, they have sold OUT the Party for a VERY limited cuts, the Republicans in the House who vote for this are doing a Bush 41.   Lets hope the Tea Party supporters and Conservative Republicans run candidates against those in the House who vote for this deal,  they have sold out folks. 

The Fiscal Cliff Talks - Update

The New York Times: Reports that a meeting between President Obama and Speaker Boenher on Thursday did not look like a deal had been struck. 

Lets Get Real:

The Liberal base of the Democratic Party wants the US to go over the fiscal cliff, then tax hikes will happen for everyone and US defence spending will be hit hard.  The Republicans at the start will get the blame, the liberal main stream media such as the liberal NYT will say that is the fault of the House Republicans, but this spin will not help the Oval, if the US goes in to recession it will be a Obama recession, then the election cycle  hits, the Republicans and Democrats will start to get ready for the 2014 Mid Terms, if Obama can not deal with the Congress this will hurt Democrats in the long term, also in the 2012 Election POTUS promised that the Middle Class would not see tax hikes, well if the US goes over that cliff the Middle Class will take a big hit, and the Oval will feel its wrath.   As POTUS can not run again, and does not have a horse in the 2016 race, VP Biden will not be the next President, then Democrats it can be postulated will want some distance from the Oval, after 8 years US voters will want a change, thus Hillary Clinton is in a perfect position to seek some distance from the Oval, she was a loyal Secretary of State, thus the Obama supporters can not really attack her should see need some clear water between her and Obama.    Of course this all depends on the polls, if Obama is like a Reagan he can help Hillary Clinton, if of course if he is like Bill Clinton in 2000 and is a vote loser by the perception of the Clinton Camp they can ditch him.   In way the US election cycle is bad government but for political geeks it is great, mid way through next year expect the Democrats and Republicans to head to Iowa and NH, the election race starts all over again. 

The Fiscal Cliff - Update

CNN - Politics: Reports the following on the talks between POTUS and the House Speaker, " ..there was no movement on the main sticking point of tax rates, sources familiar with the conversation told CNN ".

Lets Get Real:

The Oval knows that the Speaker will fold, right after the election Speaker Boehner offered revenue increases, you do not offer off the bat in talks, you start from your extreme point and work your way down, the Oval will have guessed that the House will fold at the last minute, and thus the White House will get its tax hikes and NO WELFARE CUTS, the Democrats then can push the House around for the next two years.   The Tea Party supporters in the Republican controlled House should pick someone to stand against Boehner, a hard line tea Party supporter who understand the agenda of the Gipper, small government, low taxes and a strong defence.  The Speaker should scare the hell out of the Oval, constant Congressional investigations, make them work 24/7 for every vote they want, then beat them with the Republican Majority.   This is the Chicago way folks, its not nice, but its politics 101 in the Chicago political system, the system that gave the Democrats Obama.   

The Oval on Susan Rice

The White House: Has a Presidential Statement on the withdrawal of Susan Rice for consideration as Secretary of State, " Today, I spoke to Ambassador Susan Rice, and accepted her decision to remove her name from consideration for Secretary of State. For two decades, Susan has proven to be an extraordinarily capable, patriotic, and passionate public servant. As my Ambassador to the United Nations, she plays an indispensable role in advancing America’s interests. Already, she has secured international support for sanctions against Iran and North Korea, worked to protect the people of Libya, helped achieve an independent South Sudan, stood up for Israel’s security and legitimacy, and served as an advocate for UN reform and the human rights of all people. I am grateful that Susan will continue to serve as our Ambassador at the United Nations and a key member of my cabinet and national security team, carrying her work forward on all of these and other issues. I have every confidence that Susan has limitless capability to serve our country now and in the years to come, and know that I will continue to rely on her as an advisor and friend. While I deeply regret the unfair and misleading attacks on Susan Rice in recent weeks, her decision demonstrates the strength of her character, and an admirable commitment to rise above the politics of the moment to put our national interests first. The American people can be proud to have a public servant of her caliber and character representing our country. ".

Lets Get Real:

This is funny folks, you can laugh, lets be clear here, the Oval never actually in a formal manner nominated Ambassador Rice to be the next US Secretary State, thus this statement is based  on a D.C rumour that was never actually confirmed by the Oval.    One has to to think that Senator Kerry will be pleased to be the next Secretary State even if he was the 2nd choice, the Republicans will see it as way to get former Senator Scott Brown back in to the Senate after he lost his race in November.   This mess is down to the fact that Ambassador Rice at the height of the 2012 election allowed herself to be used by the Oval to spin a weak a story about the death of the US Ambassador to Libya that was NOT TRUE, even as she went on the 5 Sunday talk shows they story was falling apart, this should be a political lesson to the Ambassador, do not fall on your sword if your not going to get any benefits in the future, it seems from the latest reports that Rice will be made Obama's National Security Advisor, in other words foreign policy will be made at the Oval, so expect some rows between State and the Oval.