Obama and the Swing States

The Hill: Reports on a new poll of the Swing States in the 2012 race, the articles notes the following, " the president is ahead in 10 of the 12 vital states. If those polls were borne out on Election Day, Obama would coast to victory with 332 electoral college votes. "

Lets Get Real:

It not even August yet folks, Governor Romney has not picked a VP, the there is the National Conventions and finally the all import Debates. Also lets not forget the fact that the Obama Camp has out spent Romney in this early stage, nearly all the Obama adverts are negative. Thus the fact that Romney and Obama are tied in most polls is great for Romney. It would be great if Romney was ahead, but the plus for the Romney Camp is the fact that they will have more money on hand when the race really starts after Labour Day in the US. The polls in September and October are important folks, if Obama is ahead and this blog thinks he will win it will say so, its a Conservative blog but its not blind. It wants to be right. It is just to early to say folks. The Presidential Debates could be the decider as they were in 1960, 1976, 1980 and 2000. Thus if your a Republican you should not be that depressed but if your a Democrat do not be to cocky, events, events folks.

Bill Clinton and Obama - 2012 Race

Guardian: Reports that former US President Bill Clinton will nominate President Obama at the Democratic Convention, the article notes the following, " ties between Obama and Bill Clinton have strengthened significantly ".

Lets Get Real:

If the Guardian even thinks that Bill Clinton likes Obama they should register for a Guide Dog, it can argued that Bill Clinton loathes Obama, not just because he beat Hillary Clinton in 2008, but due to the fact that the Obama Campaign in 2008 used the race card on the first " Black " President, and that is Clinton folks not Obama, Hawaii does not cut it, its not the Deep South. Thus the question what is Bill Clinton up to, if Hillary Clinton follows through with her statement that she wants out of a 2nd term is Clinton looking to replace her, or is this a bigger game, does the Slick Willy ( BC) expect Obama to lose to Romney and thus making sure that Hillary Clinton does not get any critical reviews by action by Bill, that is how they play the game in the Clinton household folks. Or it could be more basic folks, BC just loves the TV, wants to be the centre of attention, he does have that flaw.

Syrian Update - Syrian Crisis

BBC News: Reports that two hundred thousand Syrians have left the Syrian City of Aleppo due to the fighting between the forces of the Assad Regime and the Free Syrian Army.

Lets Get Real:

Thus the question that has to be asked, what is the West going to do folks, the answer is NOTHING. The Assad Regime would have to start using its WMD's on its own people before the West would take action, and lets be very honest here folks, the action would be taken not to save the Syrian people but to make sure that terrorists did not get their hands on such weapons or that the Syrian Regime gave these WMD's to terrorists in the region, this would be seen as a threat to Israel and thus either Israel or the US would have to act, the Assad Regime is a criminal regime, that does not make it stupid, one can presume that Russia and China have made it clear to Assad that if he uses chemical weapons he is on his own, thus the Syrian people will die while the West looks to the Olympics, that is the real world folks, sad but true.

Aleppo Massacre ? - Syrian Update

BBC News: Reports that the UK Government has warned of a potential massacre in Aleppo, the 2nd City of Syria.

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks we shall see if the West, and in this case the Obama Administration has the backbone to go around the UN Security Council and prevent a bloody massacre in Aleppo, in Libya after a UN resolution the West in the shape of NATO bought down the Gaddafi Regime, much to the horror of Russia and China, the Russians with their Port in Syria are not going to move, and China on this issue goes along with Russia, lets face China had its own massacre of those seeking democracy, thus they have reasons to prevent the UN looking at the internal affair of other States. The question is will the Oval take action, or are we looking at another Bosnia, thousands killed before the US takes action, of course Obama has a problem, its an election year, how many innocent people getting killed on our TV screens can Obama put up with before he has to take action, with or without UN approval. The US left will never support another War in the Middle East, thus many poor Syrians might have to die before President Obama finds his backbone. Harsh but TRUE folks.

Greece on the Edge - Eurozone Crisis

Daily Mail: Reports that the Greek PM Antonis Samaras is meeting the troika of the EU/IMF/ECB to persuade them to give Greece the final part of the bailout agreed between Greece and the EU.

Lets Get Real:

The Germans are worried that they are going to be conned again, they give the green light to the bailout then Greece comes back later and asks for money money, also the Germans are worried that the Spanish will be next with their begging bowl, and if you include Italy that would cost trillions. It can be argued that Germany is looking for a reason to kick Greece out of the Euro, the lack of reforms in Greece could be the perfect reason. If the troika gives Greece this final part of the bailout it can be postulated that Berlin is hoping it will work, in betting terms folks that is betting on long odds. The Greeks will never reform, they know that the Berlin is scared of the effects of a Greek exit, thus the view from Athens is that they have the Germans over a barrel, the problem is that the German tax payer has had enough, all politics is local folks, at the end of the day German politicians might have no choice but to cut Greece adrift, lets see who has the best poker hand folks.

Obama vs. Romney - Friday Polls

It is that time of the week folks, the Friday Polls. The usual warning its only July folks, we still have the national conventions to go and Romney has to pick his VP. Then we have the debates.

Rasmussen Reports ( LV ): Reports on its daily tracking poll, today Governor Romney leads President Obama by 49% to 44%. A 5% lead.

Gallup ( RV ): Reports on its daily tracking poll, today both President Obama and Governor are tied at 46%.

Lets Get Real:

If your in the Romney Camp you will be spinning the Rasmussen Poll, this shows Romney with a 5%, what is good for this blogger about this poll is that counts likely voters, people who on the whole will get off their backsides and VOTE. The Registered Voter Poll might have those that support Obama or Romney but will never go out and vote. In essence folks neither candidate as defined the other, the Obama Camp has thrown enough dirt but it has just kept them in the game, it has not removed Romney as a threat. In the Romney Camp they have started to fight back, they have been helped by the political gaffes of the President, his remarks that the private sector is doing fine and that individuals do not build their own business will help those that were suspect about Obama to go to Romney. Also older people tend to vote in larger numbers that younger people, thus lets see the effect of the Supremes stating that ObamaCare is a tax, this could really hurt Obama on election day. Thus folks it might come down to the Presidential Debates, in that Obama should be the favourite, but that could be a problem, as long as Romney does not fall over he could win by default. Lets see folks.

Obama vs. Romney - Mid Week Polls

Lets have a look at the Polls as Governor Romney heads for his oversees trip, the Republican Nominee will visit the UK, Poland and Israel.

Rasmussen Reports ( LV ): In its latest daily tracking poll it finds that Governor Romney leads President Obama by 47% to 44%, a 3%.

Gallup ( RV ): In its latest daily tracking poll it finds that Governor Romney leads President Obama by 46% to 45%.

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks the candidates are tied, neither has defined the other enough to gain a big lead, thus we come down the the National Conventions and the debates. The talk in the D.C beltway is the the discussion as to the nature of this race, is this 1980 again with Romney as Reagan or 2004 with Obama as Bush 43, thus far to be honest folks its very hard to judge, the Obama Camp has used the 1996 play book of Bill Clinton trying to define Romney before he can define himself, thus following the example of the Republicans in 2004 who defined Senator Kerry and thus his defeat. Although the Chicago Re-Elect Committee has kept the Oval in the race it has not managed to build on its image of Romney as a out of touch rich guy, in fact POTUS has made a few political gaffes, he stated that the private sector was doing fine and that individuals do not build their companies. This has taken the pressure of Romney and his business record. As to the Romney Camp it has started to fight back, but it has to get in to the trenches, pick a attack dog for VP, then really go after the Oval with adverts and at the Convention. Thus down to the debates folks, can Romney do a Reagan and pass that line of looking Presidential, or will be be Ford, and look out of touch. The debates could decide this race folks, fun times ahead folks.