What are the CHANCES of a Brexit Deal ? - Brexit Update 1 - Transitional Phase

BBC News: Reports " Brexit trade talks: Less than 50% chance of deal, says Michael Gove "

Lets Get Real:

The House of Commons has been sent home, with the warning that they could be recalled if there is a Brexit Deal within the next few days, now this warning by Michael Gove, that a chance of a Brexit Deal is about less than 50%.  The PM and the Conservative Government is playing HARDBALL with the EU, the deal is close, but the Government must not sell out UK fisherman over UK waters or that the EU can direct UK law through the backdoor.   One the whole this blog predicts a DEAL, but one that might be contested by the ERG, if they go through it in detail, thus the need for a quick approval by the House of Commons and the House of Lords.   The PM is facing the EU but looking over his shoulder at his own Party, tricky politics.

A Brexit Deal and the Houses of Parliament - Brexit Update 3 - Transitional Phase

Telegraph: Reports " MPs primed to vote for a potential Brexit trade deal next week...The Telegraph understands plans being studied by the Commons leader involve lawmakers being asked to sit on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday "

Lets Get Real:

The devil is in the detail, the ERG must make sure that the Brexit Deal gives the UK back its sovereignty after decades tied to the EU.  A rushed parliamentary process allows for a weak deal that allows for a backdoor access to UK law by the EU.  The Conservative Government is lucky, the Labour leader has made it clear that Labour will back ANY DEAL, it wants the issue to go away and it wants to win back the red wall voters it lost in 2019.  The negative signals by Boris Johnson could ALL be PR, come out with a deal and then push it through the House of Commons and the Lords.   On the other hand there still could be a NO DEAL, that would be best for the UK, cut ALL links with the EU, then start afresh with talks.   Few days of interesting politics.  

It's about Fish and Sovereignty - Brexit Update 2 - Transitional Phase

Daily Mail: Reports " The UK does not want fishing to be linked to trade because it fears the EU could use a fishing dispute to suspend parts of the trade deal. "

Lets Get Real:

The EU is playing games, its knows that if Boris sells out on fish he will be finished as leader of the Conservative Party, it would be better for the UK and for Boris to walk away from the talks.  The EU is seeking by the backdoor to regulate UK law in the future.   At least the sides have agreed to remove a deadline, it was becoming a FARCE of the first order. The last deadline is the 31st of December, after that the UK returns to WTO rules or Oz rules as often use by the PM.  One can see the Remain pressure groups and individuals getting their knickers in a twist at the thought that we will be outside the reach of the EU.  That time can not come fast enough, we are not a colony of the EU. 

Brexit Latest - Brexit Update 1 - Transitional Phase

BBC News: Reports " UK wants EU trade deal but not 'at any cost' - Boris Johnson "

Lets Get Real:

Over the past few days the issue of Brexit has gone quiet, both the EU and the UK on the whole are not leaking. Is this good or bad, the UK side has been more downbeat, as above, while the EU is giving the impression that the UK has made concessions.   It is now the 15th of December, thus we have 16 days to go before the UK leaves the transitional phase of the agreement with the EU.  The PM must be aware, that any agreement that is a sell out could cost him the support of the ERG, the ERG could remove their support for various bills and thus lead to the fall of the Johnson Government, one hopes that the pressures from the Remain side has not gotten to the PM, time will tell. 

The UK's backup PLAN for a NO DEAL BREXIT - Brexit Update 3 - Transitional Phase

Daily Mail: Reports " Ministers have drawn up plans for a £10billion bailout package for sectors of the economy that are set to be badly hit in the worst-case scenario.  "

Lets Get Real:

What is the point of drawing up plans if no one knows about it, the blink by the PM today will make business feel that the UK Government will CAVE to the EU and not a lot will change.  The PM has done another U - TURN, Lady Thatcher would have not done this even at the worse times.  One does wonder if PM Boris is up to the job.  The ERG might want to think of placing of their own in No 10, someone who can make a decision and keep to it, this move by the PM could cost him the 2024 general election and the support this like this blog.   A weak PM is no good, just look at PM May, at the beck and call of the EU through her time in power.  Not a good day for the UK, the EU might get their way at the end . 

How FAST can a TRADE DEAL but in PLACE - Brexit Update 2 - Transitional Phase

Sky News - Live Blog: Reports in its 1.40pm post the following, " The EU 27 will vow to take "all the necessary steps" to put in place any deal reached by negotiators as soon as possible, according to a coordinated response described to Reuters.  "

Lets Get Real:

This shows how cynical the EU is, they are not going to move from their redlines, they expect the UK to give ALL the concessions.  PM Boris must not allow himself to become like PM May, being bullied by the EU.  It does not matter how it looks if the UK walks away from the talks, it can be argued that both Churchill and Thatcher would not have put up with this from EU refusing to allow the UK PM to talk to the French President or the German Chancellor, when Russia threatens Poland or the Baltic States, these states will not expect help from Paris or Berlin, it is about time to remind them of that, also the the next US Administration should be warned, when it comes to the trenches, its the Brits that are with them, the rest are missing in action. Time for the UK to become the bad cop in these talks. 

Has PM Boris Blinked - UK AND EU trade talks - Brexit Update 1 - Transitional Phase

BBC News: Reports " The UK and EU have agreed to carry on post-Brexit trade talks after a call between leaders earlier on Sunday. "

Lets Get Real:

Today was meant to be NO DEAL DAY or DEAL DAY, one or the other, and NOW we have further talks, one has to ask did the PM blink, did the warnings from the Remain individual and groups frighten the PM in to seeking an extension on TALKS without any deadline.  The PM warned people to get ready for a NO DEAL Brexit, but then carries on with the talks.  The PM did not say that there has been some progress, so why allow this deadline to pass, neither side wants to be seen to pull the plug, but there is no deadline, we could be having these discussions right up to December 31st, people need to know NOW, not on January 1st 2021.