Hagel Confirmation fight - 2nd Obama Term

Telegraph: Reports on the first day of the confirmation hearing for Senator Hagel to be the next US Defence Secretary, the article notes the following, " .. fumbled questions about America’s stance towards Iran Thursday, as he struggled through a Senate confirmation hearing. ".

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks not a good start, but the former Senator should get through, thus far this blog has not heard of any Democratic Senators will vote against him, also a President should have his choice at State and Defence, if any Democrats come out then it might change the outcome.   It not 100% that Hagel will get through, Senator Tower, the choice of Bush 41 failed to pass the Senate.  Lets see if the Jewish lobby and the those on the left can block the confirmation, those that support Israel are afraid that Hagel is soft on Iran, while the left has not forgotten his chosen remarks about a gay US Ambassador.    The Oval might need to spend some political capital to get this through, but it should be enough, in less Hagel does a major mistake over the next few days. 

The Syrian Card - Middle East 2

Guardian: Reports that Syria has threatened to respond to yesterdays Israeli attack, the article notes the following, " Syria may respond to Israeli air strike, says ambassador ".

Lets Get Real:

One can see the Tehran Regime telling the President Assad that the only way that his regime can stay on is to attack Israel, this could cause divisions between the rebels, force those on the sidelines to support the Regime.  A regional war would be bloody, and would be a great for the Tehran Regime to get the West to focus on Syria while it develops the bomb.    A Israeli - Syrian War would force the Oval to support Israel, this would not go down well with extreme liberals, also it would dash any chance of talks between the US and Iran, Iran would say it would not talk while Israel was fighting Syria.  A WIN - WIN for Iran, no talks and it gets to increase it chances of getting the bomb.  Thus its in Western interest for the Assad Regime to fall quickly, the more there is a delay the more chance that Iran can play games.   Next few weeks could be very dangerous folks. 

Israel vs. Syria, Russia and Iran - Middle East

BBC News: Reports that Syria has complained to the UN over the Israeli attack over its borders, while the attack has come under critical attack from Russia and Iran. 

Lets Get Real: 

The Russians need to keep the Assad Regime in power, the Assad family has been a close ally of Russia for years, since the days of the Cold War, the Russians have their only warm water naval base in Syria, they can not afford to lose it, while Iran needs Syria as a access to Lebanon and thus to attack Israel.   As Syria is a state of Civil War, the Israeli Government has to keep a 24 hour look out for the Syrians giving weapons of mass destruction to its terrorists allies, thus Israeli intelligence Mossad will be on the ground, they will be sharing info with the CIA  and MI6.   It can be expected that there will be more Israeli attacks as the Assad Regime falls apart and its loses control of its WMD's, also Iran might want to muddy waters by having Syria attack Israel, thus force Israel to respond, this could set off Gaza again, and this could develop in to a regional war, while Iran gets closer to the bomb.   The Middle East is hotting up folks, the new US Secretary of State, Secretary Kerry will have his hands full when he takes over on Friday from Secretary Clinton. 

Did Israel Strike Syrian Convoy ? - Middle East 3

Telegraph: Reports more on the unconfirmed report that Israel has hit a Syrian convoy that entered Lebanon,  the article notes the following, " An Israeli military spokeswoman declined to comment on the report, which was carried by Reuters and Agence France-Presse news agencies ". 

Lets Get Real: 

Thus folks due to the lack of anything out of Syria, Israel, or even the UK/US one can take it as read that it happened, it would great to have had a confirmation from CNN, SKY, or BBC News,   thus lets see if there is a reaction by Syria, or if the US and Israel take further action, lets be clear folks, the innocent deaths in Syria does cause alarm and concern, but at the end of the day a terrorist group with the WMD's of the Assad Regime is more serious for Israel, and the West. If and its a BIG IF, the Assad Regime has lost control of its chemical weapons the Oval will have a brutal choice, either allow Israel to take out the threat or take action, there are no easy and quick options folks.   Thus this blog would not be surprised if the US has to take out some Syrian sites due to the worry that Assad will or has moved his WMD's in to the hands of terrorists.  Watch this space folks. 

Syrian Chemical Weapons and Israel - Middle East 2

Guardian: Reports on a report that Israeli planes have hit a target on the Syrian/Lebanon border, the article notes the following, " Unconfirmed report of attack comes as Israel monitors region for possible chemical weapons convoys leaving Syria for Lebanon ".

Lets Get Real:

The Israeli Government will not allow terrorists in Lebanon to get hold of chemical weapons, if this was to happen Iran would suddenly become the 2nd threat to Israel.   One would assume that the Mossad of Israel, the CIA of the US and MI6 from the UK will have eyes on the ground in Syria.  The gradual destruction of the Assad Regime allows for Islamic terrorists groups to get their hands on weapons of mass destruction, and folks these groups will use these weapons.    Thus lets see if there 2nd confirmation for this story, it would up the crisis in Syria, the Assad Regime could use it for good PR, from their point of view it would be the Jewish State attacking them for a 2nd time of late, the last major attack was in 2007, when Israel prevented Assad going nuclear.   Think folks if Assad had the bomb, he could blackmail the region and the West.    Thus Israel should keep an eye on Syria, from the ground to the air, but get it right, do not hit a innocent convey, one can assume that the Oval has drones ALL over the Syrian chemical sites in case they have to be taken out, the next few weeks and months could be critical folks. 

Is Egypt about to Fall ? - Middle East

Telegraph: Reports on the riots in Egypt, the article notes the following, " Egypt is nearing "state collapse", its defence minister and army chief warned in comments widely seen as a threat to re-impose military rule. ".

Lets Get Real:

If the new Egyptian democracy falls then the Oval has a problem, the Muslim Brotherhood on one hand as kept Gaza quiet, thus Israel has not invaded, but and here is the BUT, the secular liberal groups in Egypt see that the Muslim Brotherhood is a threat to the secular liberal nature of Egyptian society in the urban areas.    Thus the constant demonstrations, the Army is worried that it might lose its economic interest in Egypt and also lose US support.    The Oval wants the Muslim Brotherhood Government to keep Arms from getting in to Gaza from Iran, but also keep the peace deal with Israel, the Muslim Brotherhood on the other hand is trying to move Egypt in to another Iran.    Thus a problem for the Oval.  It has kept very quiet so far.    Thus the outcome folks, one can assume at some point the Oval will give the green light for the Army to take over and secure the Country, Democracy has it place folks, but Israel is under threat from Gaza, the civil war in Syria and when the day arrives that Iran has the bomb, thus the Oval might decide that the Army is it's SOB and look the other way when it comes to democracy, that how the game has always been played in the Middle East folks, it took POTUS a long time to learn that lesson. 

Obama's Drones in Niger - Mali Crisis 2

Guardian: Reports on a agreement between the US and Niger to place US drones in Niger, the article notes the following, " ..US only currently desires surveillance drones to be deployed to Niger though the agreement could pave the way for more aggressive armed drones in the future. ". 

Lets Get Real: 

Thus West Africa is the new battle ground between the West and Al Qaeda terror networks, the use of drones has been very effective in Afghanistan and Pakistan, even if innocent people have been killed, the question is how long before UK and US Special Forces have to be placed on the ground,  drones can only do so much folks.    The terrorists have a lot of space to hide, so one day in the near future it will not surprise this blog to hear that UK and US Soldiers and fighting and getting killed in West Africa.    The growth of a franchise Al Qaeda has been a major failure of the Bush 43 and Obama years,  this battle will take years folks, and as Mali shows a Crisis can develop out of nowhere, even this blog had to find out about Mali, it was not on this blog's map of future crisis points, thus far we have seen French, UK and now the US one way or another getting caught up in the fight, lets hope UK and US Soldiers do not have to die for French mistakes.